What We're Watching: Pelosi’s Impeachment Calculus

What We're Watching: Pelosi’s Impeachment Calculus

Buckle Up, Impeachment is On! In a dramatic turn of events, Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced yesterday that the House of Representatives will formally open an impeachment inquiry of President Trump, claiming he had seriously "violated the Constitution" when he allegedly tried to coerce Ukrainian officials into investigating 2020 Democratic presidential front runner Joe Biden, and his son. Pelosi has heard calls for impeachment for months, but was reluctant to pull the trigger over concerns that the ensuing political circus could hurt the Democrats' 2020 election chances. But as even key moderate Democrats in swing districts came out in support this week, she chose to strike. If a majority in the Democrat-controlled House votes to indict (impeach) Trump for violations of the constitution, he would face a trial in the Senate where two-thirds of the body would need to vote to convict and remove him from office. That's an almost impossibly high hurdle in the GOP-controlled Senate. This process – perhaps the most momentous US political drama in a generation – is sure to be extremely divisive and unpredictable. Buckle up.


UK Rule of Law – Brexit has made British democracy and rule of law the subject of much debate in recent months, and jokes about the UK's political dysfunction have circled the globe. (Your Signal authors might have indulged in one or two.) Brexit supporters say the people have spoken, and that it's undemocratic to try to subvert their will. Brexit critics claim that a prime minister elected only by members of the ruling party wants to push the country toward an extreme form of Brexit that wasn't on the ballot in 2016. Parliament and prime minister(s) have been constantly at odds. But on Tuesday, the 11 justices of the UK's supreme court ruled unanimously that Prime Minister Boris Johnson had violated the law by shutting down parliament in a time of national crisis—and, crucially, the prime minister accepted the court's authority. Whatever one's view of Brexit, and however many crises follow, Tuesday was a good day for checks and balances and the rule of law.

Nuclear Annihilation – This simulation of a nuclear war between the US and Russia is worth a few minutes of your time, if you can stomach it. Developed by Princeton researchers based on "real force postures, targets, and fatality estimates," it shows, in mesmerizing yet horrifying detail, (and with exquisite sound design) how a conventional military conflict in Europe could spiral out of control, provoking a tactical nuclear exchange and then an all-out nuclear war that kills or maims more than 90 million people in a matter of hours. It's a reminder that a generation after the end of the Cold War, there are still roughly 16,000 nukes pointed directly at military and civilian targets around the world, many of them ready to launch at a moment's notice. In addition, the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty between the US and Russia this year has put new tactical weapons in play, raising the risk of an accident or miscalculation that leads to catastrophe.

What We're Ignoring:

Russian Military Boasts — Ever ready to challenge (at least rhetorically) the superiority of the West and weapons, the Kremlin responded to attacks on Saudi oil refineries last week with a sales pitch for its own S-400 anti-missile systems. We're ignoring this Moscow bravado because a) there is no way Riyadh will anger the US as Turkey did by purchasing this Russian air-defense system, especially when the Saudis are on the front lines of escalating hostilities between the US and Iran, and b) a walrus just took out a Russian navy boat. Sure, it was filled with researchers from the Russian Geographical Society (who thankfully emerged unharmed), but still.

During the past year, 58% of all cyberattacks observed by Microsoft from nation-states have come from Russia. And attacks from Russian nation-state actors are increasingly effective, jumping from a 21% successful compromise rate last year to a 32% rate this year. Russian nation-state actors are increasingly targeting government agencies for intelligence gathering, which jumped from 3% of their targets a year ago to 53% – largely agencies involved in foreign policy, national security or defense. The top three countries targeted by Russian nation-state actors were the United States, Ukraine and the UK. These are just a few of the insights in the second annual Microsoft Digital Defense Report. Read additional highlights from the Microsoft on the Issues blog and find the full report here.

If you had to guess which current world leader has made the most trips to Africa, who would you say? China's Xi Jinping? Nope, hardly — he's been there just four times. France's Emmanuel Macron? Pas de tout.

The answer may surprise you: it's Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who's been to the continent more times than the leader(s) of any other non-African state. Just this week he notched his 28th visit, with stops in Angola, Nigeria, and Togo. Sure, being in power for two decades creates a lot of opportunities for exotic travel, but even Putin isn't close: he's been to Africa just five times, all to visit South Africa or Egypt.

More Show less

Former Libyan strongman Muammar Qaddafi was killed by rebels on 20 October, 2011, after a NATO intervention designed to protect civilians helped strengthen an uprising against his regime. Since then, the country has been mired in chaos as different factions have battled for control, resulting in extensive destruction and human causalities. Libya has been nominally governed since 2014 by warring administrations backed by foreign powers in the west and east of the country. Last year, UN mediation efforts finally began to gain traction with an agreement on a cease-fire and a roadmap for elections to be held later this year. We talked with Eurasia Group expert Ahmed Morsy to find out how things are going.

More Show less

China's GDP grew a lower-than-expected 4.9 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2021, a whopping three percentage points less than in the previous period. It's a big deal for the world's second-largest economy, the only major one that expanded throughout the pandemic — and now at risk of missing its growth target of 6 percent for the entire year.

Normally, such a drastic slowdown would have put the ruling Communist Party in a tizzy. But this time, Xi Jinping knows this is the price he must pay for his big plans to curb rising inequality and boost the middle class at the expense of the CCP's traditional economic mantra: high growth above all else.

More Show less

6,000: Poland has doubled the number of troops guarding its border with Belarus to almost 6,000 because of a surge in migrants trying to cross over (there were 612 attempts on Monday alone). Warsaw accuses Minsk of sending non-EU migrants into Poland as payback for EU sanctions against Belarus.

More Show less

Religious tension rising in Bangladesh: Clashes between Hindus and Muslims in Bangladesh have surged over the past week, leaving at least four people dead. After an image was posted on Facebook showing the Quran at the feet of a statue at a Hindu temple, Muslims burned Hindu-owned homes and attacked their holy sites. Both sides have taken to the street in protest, with Hindus saying that they have been prevented from celebrating Durga Puja, the largest Hindu festival in the country. Such acts of sectarian violence are not uncommon in Bangladesh, a majority-Muslim country where Hindus account for nine percent of the population. Indeed, as Eurasia Group's Kevin Allison recently warned, unverified social media content stoking inter-ethnic conflict is a massive problem throughout South Asia, where for many people Facebook is synonymous with the internet.

More Show less

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Read Ian Bremmer's wide-ranging essay in Foreign Affairs that puts in perspective both the challenge, and the opportunity, that comes from the unprecedented power of Big Tech.

Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here on the road, something we haven't done very much recently, but will increasingly as we try to move through COVID. And I want to talk to you about a new article that I just put out in Foreign Affairs that I'm calling "The Technopolar Moment." Not unipolar, not bipolar, not multipolar, technopolar. What the hell does technopolar mean?

It means that increasingly big technology companies are themselves geopolitical actors. So to understand the future of the world, you can't just look at the United States, Europe and China. You need to look at the big tech companies, too.

More Show less

China gets away with a lot these days in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and elsewhere. That's because over the past decade, its economy has experienced explosive growth, making it an indispensable trading partner for almost every country in the world. At the same time, China has been expanding its share of the global economy, and is now set to overtake the US as the world's biggest economic powerhouse in the near term. We take a look at China's annual growth rate and share of the global economy based on GDP over the past decade.

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter, Signal

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal

Colin Powell's legacy

US Politics

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal