Moldova’s leader considers whether independence is still worth it

It’s not often that a head of state suggests their country should merge with another. But as the war in Ukraine grinds on, the president of Moldova, Kyiv’s southwest neighbor, is suggesting just that in hopes of blunting Russian pressure.

During an interview earlier this month, President Maia Sandu said she wouldvote for unification with neighboring Romania, a European Union and NATO member, if a referendum were held.

Her comments drew both condemnation and applause. Pro-Russian oppositionists in Moldova accused Sandu of “treason” and called for her resignation. Unionists, meanwhile, who’ve long pushed to erase the border between the two countries placed in 1940 when Moldova became part of the Soviet Union, welcomed her remarks.

Sandu, for her part, has acknowledged that a merger with Romania is unlikely because it lacks broad support at home. But the suggestion itself reflects a growing fear that Moldova will be crushed under Moscow’s pressure. Wedged between Ukraine and Romania and lacking NATO protection, the country of roughly 2.4 million people is racing to anchor itself in the EU. Sandu has set her sights on joining the bloc by 2030 as an independent state, but warned that it was becoming “more and more difficult for a small country like Moldova to survive as a democracy, as a sovereign country, and of course to resist Russia.”

Moscow’s grip on Moldova. Despite three decades of independence from the Soviet Union, Moldova’s government has, at times, favored close ties with Russia. As recently as 2020, a pro-Russian Socialist Party was in power. But four years later, voters narrowly supported a proposal for EU membership. Then, on Monday, Moldova’s government said it would complete its withdrawal from the Russia-led Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Kremlin-backed forces have intensified efforts to reverse Moldova’s shift towards the EU. Sandu has repeatedly accused Russia of waging a “hybrid war” on the country through tactics like election manipulation and disinformation.

Russia also exerts leverage through Moldova’s long-standing conflicts. In Transnistria, a Moscow-backed breakaway region along the Ukrainian border, about 1,500 Russian troops remain stationed despite a pledge to withdraw in 1992. Sandu has said reintegrating the territory – once Russian soldiers leave – is essential to Moldova’s EU ambitions.

Another pressure point is Gagauzia, a semi-autonomous, heavily Russian-speaking region heavily influenced by fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor. Sentenced to 15 years for bank fraud, Shor fled to Moscow, from where he continues to meddle in Moldova’s politics, most recently offering Moldovans 3,000 euros a month to participate in anti-government demonstrations.

Could Romania be a shortcut to the EU? As a full member of the bloc, it could, in theory, deliver Moldova immediate access to the EU through unification. There are also longstanding ties between the two countries: Moldova’s official language is Romanian, and many Moldovans, including Sandu, hold dual citizenship with Romania.

But the political reality at home makes that route unlikely. Polls show roughly two-thirds of Moldovans oppose unification with Romania, and any attempt at unionification could further push Moscow to destabilize the current government.

Sandu has said that EU membership is a “more realistic objective.” Yet the accession process is slow, complicated by a proposal for “two-tier” membership that would limit new entrants’ rights.

The EU’s two-tier debate. As the number of member countries grows, Brussels is considering a controversial move to restrict the rights of new entrants to avoid governance gridlock. Currently, all EU decisions must be unanimous. Members enjoy a veto, which has allowed Hungary and Slovakia, which have Moscow-friendly governments, to block various EU initiatives denouncing the war in Ukraine.

Existing members areconcerned that a bigger EU would make it even harder to make unanimous decisions. To speed the admission of new members, the European Commission is considering withholding its veto rights until it replaces unanimity with a majority voting system.

Moldova was granted candidate status for EU membership alongside Ukraine following Russia’s 2022 invasion. Now, both countries are signaling caution on the EU’s two-tier proposal. According to a senior Moldovan official, “full membership — with equal rights and full participation in EU decision-making — must remain the clear and ultimate objective.”

For now, Moldova’s dilemma remains stark as the threat to the country grows. Earlier this month, authorities uncovered crashed Russian drones 30 miles from their border with Ukraine. It wasn’t the first time: In November of last year alone, Moldova reported eight Russian drones had breached its airspace. A number of NATO members, like Poland and Romania, have also seen Russian drone incursions, but security experts say Moldova alone lacks the capacity to defend itself against drone attacks.

However unlikely unification with Romania is, Moldova is seeking deeper integration with Europe, rather than isolation with Russia on its doorstep.