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Hard Numbers: Trump’s COVID survival odds, 25th amendment, Biden gains, RNC replacement

US President Donald Trump in a file photo. Reuters

95: Donald Trump has a 95 percent chance of making a full recovery from the coronavirus, according to CNN medical correspondent Sanjay Gupta. Although the US president is at increased risk because he is male, 74 years old and has a body mass index over 30 percent, the New York Times reports that Trump has so far shown only mild symptoms.


3: Section 3 of the 25th amendment to the US Constitution empowers the president to temporarily hand over power to the vice president when the former is incapacitated. It has been used only three times — the last one in 2007, when Dick Cheney briefly became acting president while George W. Bush underwent a colonoscopy.

80: Political opinion poll website FiveThirtyEight has raised Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden's chances of winning the November election to 80 percent in the wake of Trump's positive test for COVID-19. Biden is currently leading Trump by more than seven points in an average of national voter intention polls.

168: If Trump is deemed too ill to continue running, it'll be up to the 168 members of the Republican National Committee to decide whether to replace him on the ticket (presumably with Vice President Mike Pence). This possibility was raised four years ago, when many Republicans urged then-candidate Trump to drop out of the race following the Access Hollywood tapes scandal.

Urbanization may radically change not only the landscape but also investors' portfolios. Creating the livable urban centers of tomorrow calls for a revolution in the way we provide homes, transport, health, education and much more.

Our expert guests will explore the future of cities and its implications for your wealth.

Learn more.

Back in 2016, presidential candidate Donald Trump presented his vision for an "America First" foreign policy, which symbolized a radical departure from the US' longtime approach to international politics and diplomacy.

In electing Donald Trump, a political outsider, to the top job, American voters essentially gave him a mandate to follow through on these promises. So, has he?

Trade

"A continuing rape of our country."

On the 2016 campaign trail, candidate Trump said that the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) — a 12 country trade deal pushed by the Obama administration — would "rape" America's economy by imperiling the manufacturing sector, closing factories, and taking more jobs overseas.

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In an op-ed titled "Iran Arms Embargo Reckoning," the Wall Street Journal editorial board argues that ending the UN arms embargo on Iran was a major flaw of the 2015 nuclear deal and questions whether Biden could do anything to contain Iran at this point. Ian Bremmer and Eurasia Group's Henry Rome take out the Red Pen to explain why this discussion misrepresents the importance of the embargo and the consequences for its expiration.

So, the US presidential election is now just days away, and today's selection is focusing on a specific aspect of foreign policy that will certainly change depending on who wins in the presidential contest—namely America's approach to Iran.

You've heard me talk before about the many similarities between Trump and Biden on some international policies, like on China or on Afghanistan. But Iran is definitely not one of those. Trump hated the JCPOA, the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, put together under the Obama administration, and he walked away from it unilaterally. Joe Biden, if he were to become president, would try to bring it back.

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It almost didn't happen — but here we are again. President Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden face off tonight in the final presidential debate of the 2020 US election campaign.

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Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, US President George W. Bush demanded that Afghanistan's Taliban government surrender Osama bin Laden and end support for al-Qaeda. The Taliban refused.

On October 7, US bombs began falling on Taliban forces. NATO allies quickly pledged support for the US, and US boots hit the ground in Afghanistan two weeks later.

Thus began a war, now the longest in US history, that has killed more than 3,500 coalition soldiers and 110,000 Afghans. It has cost the American taxpayer nearly $3 trillion. US allies have also made human and material sacrifices.

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Episode 6: Big cities after COVID: boom or bust?

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