Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

News

Hard Numbers: Trump’s COVID survival odds, 25th amendment, Biden gains, RNC replacement

US President Donald Trump in a file photo. Reuters

95: Donald Trump has a 95 percent chance of making a full recovery from the coronavirus, according to CNN medical correspondent Sanjay Gupta. Although the US president is at increased risk because he is male, 74 years old and has a body mass index over 30 percent, the New York Times reports that Trump has so far shown only mild symptoms.


3: Section 3 of the 25th amendment to the US Constitution empowers the president to temporarily hand over power to the vice president when the former is incapacitated. It has been used only three times — the last one in 2007, when Dick Cheney briefly became acting president while George W. Bush underwent a colonoscopy.

80: Political opinion poll website FiveThirtyEight has raised Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden's chances of winning the November election to 80 percent in the wake of Trump's positive test for COVID-19. Biden is currently leading Trump by more than seven points in an average of national voter intention polls.

168: If Trump is deemed too ill to continue running, it'll be up to the 168 members of the Republican National Committee to decide whether to replace him on the ticket (presumably with Vice President Mike Pence). This possibility was raised four years ago, when many Republicans urged then-candidate Trump to drop out of the race following the Access Hollywood tapes scandal.

More For You

Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)'s Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant, one of the world's largest nuclear facilities, stands along the seaside in Kashiwazaki, Niigata prefecture, Japan December 21, 2025.

Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)'s Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant, one of the world's largest nuclear facilities, stands along the seaside in Kashiwazaki, Niigata prefecture, Japan December 21, 2025.

REUTERS/Issei Kato
54: Japan is reopening the world’s largest nuclear power plant after a regional vote gave the greenlight on Monday. The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant, located 136 miles outside of Tokyo, had its 54 reactors shuttered following the 2011 earthquake and tsunami that spurred the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl. The decision reflects Japan’s push to [...]
Pro-democracy protesters carry portraits of North Yemen's late president Ibrahim al-Hamdi.

Pro-democracy protesters carry portraits of North Yemen's late president Ibrahim al-Hamdi.

REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah
Group of Yemeni ministers announce support for UAE-backed rebel coalitionIn the latest twist to Yemen’s decade-long civil war, a group of government ministers declared support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), a rebel group that broke the war’s deadlock earlier this month by seizing control of the oil-rich Handramout region. [...]
US President Donald Trump speaks with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Gimhae Air Base in Gimhae, South Korea, on October 30, 2025.

US President Donald Trump speaks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, during a bilateral meeting at Gimhae Air Base in Gimhae, South Korea, on October 30, 2025.

Yonhap News/POOL/Handout via Sipa USA
Every January, Eurasia Group, GZERO’s parent company, unveils a forecast of the top 10 geopolitical risks for the world in the year ahead, authored by EG President Ian Bremmer and EG Chairman Cliff Kupchan. The 2026 report drops on Monday, January 5.Before looking forward, though, it’s worth looking back. Here’s how the 2025 Top Risks report [...]
US President Donald Trump announces tariffs on US trading partners at the White House in Washington, DC, USA, on April 2, 2025.

US President Donald Trump arrives to announce reciprocal tariffs against US trading partners in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, on April 2, 2025.

POOL via CNP/INSTARimages.com
As GZERO readers will be all too aware, 2025 has been a hefty year for geopolitics. US President Donald Trump’s return to office has rocked global alliances, conflicts have raged from Khartoum to Kashmir, and new powers – both tangible and technological – have emerged.To put a bow on the year, GZERO highlights the biggest geopolitics stories of 2025. [...]