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Ian Bremmer: Life Post-COVID-19 & What Happens in a 2nd Wave

Ian Bremmer provides his perspective in (slightly) more than 60 seconds: What's the coronavirus update? And when will a state of normalcy return?

Oh, that's easy. A state of normalcy will not return when we start returning to work. I certainly think that the decision by President Trump to push out to the end of April was rational. I think in certain parts of the country, it's likely to be much longer. By that, I think New York City, maybe June is when you start really seeing end of quarantines and people going back to work. But when you don't have a vaccine, the likelihood that people are going to trust going to sports and concerts and bars and restaurants or sitting in the middle seat and bringing their family to Disney is going to take a long time. I think really you need a vaccine at scale before that happens and that's well over a year out. Why? I think that all the numbers you're seeing right now about the strong rebound of the economy in the third and fourth quarter is over optimistic. And instead, you're going to need significant additional bailouts come summer, which the Americans will be able to do. Emerging markets will not. And I'm much more worried about what happens to them going forward.

Will powers enacted fighting this war on coronavirus remain when it's over?

In some cases, yes. I think in particular, the role of technology companies. We saw before this crisis hit, there was such an effort to say they need to be broken up, and this tech lash, and they're too powerful, they've got too much data. In Europe, we need our privacy. But now we're going to see that these companies, first of all, they're vastly more important today than they were a couple of weeks ago because everyone relies on them just to get business done. Rely on Amazon because you're worried about going to the supermarket. But also, we're going to need them to monitor who does and doesn't have the virus. Where they've been? Who they've been connected to? Which means all of your data is going to go to those companies and they're going to be working with the government. When that happens, you're going to see much less backlash against those companies. And by the way, the US will end up in a stronger position than the Europeans because the Americans have those companies. Those companies going to get stronger. Worth thinking about that.

If there is a second wave of infection in China, what political responses or geopolitical pressures might we expect?

I suspect there will be a second wave of infection. But what it means is that China is just not going to rebound the same way that they think they're going to rebound. Right? I mean, they are restarting the supply chain, but they closed down their movie theaters after opening them up. That's clearly because of a second wave that we just don't know about. They're not telling us about it. They're still not providing any information on asymptomatic cases to anyone else around the world, which is incredibly irresponsible. They have the largest number of cases. They're lying about it. And they have the longest case history. We need that information. They're not giving it to us. So, I still think that the big issue here and the big geopolitical implications, is that US-China relations are going to become more problematic going forward, not that China's going to do anything differently than they have been in terms of how they're handling it domestically or with the rest of us.

Carbon has a bad rep, but did you know it's a building block of life? As atoms evolved, carbon trapped in CO2 was freed, giving way to the creation of complex molecules that use photosynthesis to convert carbon to food. Soon after, plants, herbivores, and carnivores began populating the earth and the cycle of life began.

Learn more about how carbon created life on Earth in the second episode of Eni's Story of CO2 series.

On Tuesday night, you can finally watch Trump and Biden tangle on the debate stage. But you TOO can go head to head on debate night .. with your fellow US politics junkies.

Print out GZERO's handy debate BINGO cards and get ready to rumble. There are four different cards so that each player may have a unique board. Every time one of the candidates says one of these words or terms, X it on your card. First player to get five across wins. And if you really want to jazz it up, you can mark each of your words by taking a swig of your drink, or doing five burpees, or donating to your favorite charity or political candidate. Whatever gets you tipsy, in shape, or motivated, get the bingo cards here. It's fight night!

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Join us today, September 29th, at 11 am ET for a GZERO Town Hall livestream event, Ending the COVID-19 Pandemic, to learn about the latest in the global hunt for a COVID-19 vaccine.

Watch here at 11am ET: https://www.gzeromedia.com/events/town-hall-ending-the-covid-19-pandemic-livestream/

Our panel will discuss where things really stand on vaccine development, the political and economic challenges of distribution, and what societies need to be focused on until vaccine arrives in large scale. This event is the second in a series presented by GZERO Media in partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Eurasia Group.

Apoorva Mandavilli, science & global health reporter for the New York Times, will moderate a conversation with:

  • Lynda Stuart, Deputy Director, Vaccines & Human Immunobiology, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
  • Rohitesh Dhawan, Managing Director, Energy, Climate & Resources, Eurasia Group
  • Mark Suzman, CEO, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
  • Gayle E. Smith, President & CEO, ONE Campaign and former Administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development

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700,000: An additional 700,000 Syrian children may go hungry this year due to the combined effects of the war-ravaged country's economic implosion, as well as coronavirus restrictions, pushing the total number of food-insecure kids in Syria to over 4.6 million, according to Save the Children. Two thirds of surveyed children have not eaten any fresh fruit in three months.

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The long-simmering conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over a region called Nagorno-Karabakh erupted over the weekend, with more than 50 killed (so far) in the fiercest fighting in years. Will it escalate into an all-out war that threatens regional stability and drags in major outside players?

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