VIDEOSGZERO World with Ian BremmerQuick TakePUPPET REGIMEIan ExplainsGZERO ReportsAsk IanGlobal Stage
Site Navigation
Search
Human content,
AI powered search.
Latest Stories
Sign up for GZERO Daily.
Get our latest updates and insights delivered to your inbox.
Puppet Regime is up for a Webby Award!
VOTE HERE
popular
Presented by
The health care system in New York City is not likely to get overwhelmed, with enough ventilators and equipment for the person needing critical care. If that's true in New York with a substantial breakout, then second tier cities should also get suitable support, both from states that have extra and from the federal government, with more time to secure it. We're not going to see Northern Italy in the United States, good news.
In Europe, in Italy, in Spain, social distancing is making a difference. Hopefully this is the week we've hit the peak in NYC. Can't say that about the US as a whole, but grateful it's not getting worse.
The developing market piece has not hit yet and is a very big problem. They don't have the health care systems; governance is more uneven than the US or Europe. You can't socially distance even if you want to. In Brazil, 25% of the population lives in slums and favelas. In India, Sub-Saharan Africa, a lot higher than that. Explosive outbreaks. Not only is the economic hit going to be worse, but also the ability to reintegrate into supply chains of the West. Reintegrate travel takes longer, until you get strong, serology tests; convinced that parts of the population have immunity and you can reintegrate them; get a vaccine at scale.
Here in the United States, talking about what it means to start reopening the economy. Governor Abbott of Texas did a good job yesterday, saying, "I'm going to make a big announcement, an executive order about reopening the economy," sounds like he's on board with Trump. But he hasn't said when, or exactly how - don't yet have the medical experts on board. Saying you're in favor of reopening the economy, moving in that direction without anything too explicit lest you get caught. Governor Abbott in TX and Governor Cuomo in New York sound different; actual policies are less disparate.
As much as the country is divided over Trump, they are less divided over the governors and the mayors, who actually implement shutdowns. The vast majority of the country is locked down. The country will come on the back of science, what doctors say. Even some Republican governors will be more cautious in following Trump on getting the economy restarted. I expect that in Massachusetts, in Maryland, in Ohio. Question will be: states that decide to open significantly early, especially when that changes people's behavior and they socially distance less. What happens in secondary outbreaks, do you shut it down? If you don't, what happens to other states and how they respond to people that may be traveling from your state? But more coordinated behavior from the governors and mayors than is being portrayed.
The broader question is how to restart the economy, companies? I've been impressed with efforts put in place by many CEOs. They understand that in order to get companies running again:
First, medical guidance from Fauci, Birx, etc, that there's testing, we understand immunity, confidence that the health care system and understanding of the virus is suitable.
Second, confidence around workplace infrastructure. Guidelines around cleaning, the availability of masks, hand sanitizers for employees. It's expensive, needs to be coordinated.
Finally, not only does the workplace have to be safe, but also public transport. Schools, daycares, cafeterias can be open and there is safe, healthy food supply daily.
Health care, medical guidance has to come from the CDC and NIH. Getting companies running can be done by the companies. Getting people into work and having public infrastructure, cities and states.
We can start to loosen lockdown, start to behave differently. That's different from the economy being reopened, we don't need relief efforts from the public sector. You can't start talking about getting the economy moving faster, until you're opening it up. I think we're looking at contraction this whole year.
I'd be surprised if we reopen in a way that suggests sustainable growth. Maybe end of fourth quarter, could start to see it. The country will feel better because we will have hit bottom. That's different from the economy growing. The impact that's going to have for the working and middle classes, is a real challenge.
Keep reading...Show less
More from popular
Is Trump about to invade Cuba?
May 22, 2026
In Beijing, could Trump trade away Taiwan?
May 22, 2026
African continent turns to Chinese solar
May 22, 2026
You vs. the News: A Weekly News Quiz - May 22, 2026
May 22, 2026
The surge of new West Bank outposts
May 21, 2026
As Israeli election looms, settler violence spikes
May 21, 2026
Don’t worry, renminbi happy
May 21, 2026
GZERO takes home three Gold Telly Awards!
May 20, 2026
The tide is turning in Russia-Ukraine war
May 20, 2026
Trump creates fund for wronged allies
May 20, 2026
The mental health impact of a world at war
May 20, 2026
What’s Good Wednesday: May 20, 2026
May 20, 2026
Small businesses face new pressures
May 20, 2026
Deadly mosque attack in San Diego
May 19, 2026
Seoul mates? South Korea and Japan get chummy
May 19, 2026
Trump flip flops on Iran threats
May 19, 2026
Advancing AI evaluation through global partnerships
May 18, 2026
Russia's costly invasion
May 18, 2026
A "Mexican standoff" in Hormuz?
May 18, 2026
Drone warfare shifts the Ukraine-Russia battlefield
May 18, 2026
Another Trump impeacher bites the dust
May 18, 2026
The Iran war's global fallout (so far)
May 18, 2026
Winners and losers of the Iran war, with Kori Schake
May 16, 2026
Why Trump can't find the exit ramp in Iran
May 15, 2026
Hard number: Seeking owners
May 15, 2026
Why the US-China summit changed very little
May 15, 2026
You vs. the News: A Weekly News Quiz - May 15, 2026
May 15, 2026
The Gulf rift gets ugly
May 14, 2026
Chinese court compensates AI-replaced worker
May 14, 2026
What to watch for at the Trump-Xi summit
May 13, 2026
The momentum behind women’s sports
May 13, 2026
The Anthropic-Pentagon fallout, explained
May 13, 2026
What’s Good Wednesday: May 13, 2026
May 13, 2026
Did the US actually stabilize Venezuela?
May 12, 2026
Hard Number: Is Russia stuck in the mud?
May 12, 2026
Can France redefine its relationship with Africa?
May 12, 2026
Iran thinks it has more leverage than Trump
May 11, 2026
The state of global AI diffusion in 2026
May 11, 2026
GZD 5/11/26
May 11, 2026
China puts Taiwan on an island
May 11, 2026
Hard Number: US eyes Cuba, literally
May 11, 2026
Is UK PM Keir Starmer finished?
May 11, 2026
The Regime in the Wild, for Sir David Attenborough
May 11, 2026
Inside the Pentagon's AI war machine
May 11, 2026
How AI is transforming the US military
May 08, 2026
US labor market holds steady despite Iran war
May 08, 2026
When mothers shook the world
May 08, 2026
You vs. the News: A Weekly News Quiz - May 8, 2026
May 07, 2026
Will Trump actually try to "take" Cuba?
May 07, 2026
Record Israeli settlements in the West Bank
May 07, 2026
Is water the next geopolitical battle?
May 07, 2026
The next era of mobility
May 06, 2026
Why Trump can't end the Iran war on his terms
May 06, 2026
What’s Good Wednesdays™, May 6, 2026
May 06, 2026
The media's trust problem
May 06, 2026
Ukrainian drones go the distance
May 06, 2026
GZD 5/5/26
May 05, 2026
Romania’s government collapses
May 05, 2026
Trump's 'Project Freedom'
May 04, 2026
The explosion of prediction markets
May 04, 2026
Putin's paranoia
May 04, 2026
How to prepare the global economy for the age of AI
May 04, 2026
New Trump acronym on Wall Street, muchachos...
May 04, 2026
GZERO Series
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer
Puppet Regime
Quick Take
ask ian
Ian Explains
GZERO Reports
GZERO Europe
The Debrief
GZERO Daily: our free newsletter about global politics
Keep up with what’s going on around the world - and why it matters.


















































































