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Latin America & Caribbean
As we race toward the end of 2025, voters in over a dozen countries will head to the polls for elections that have major implications for their populations and political movements globally.
Today, GZERO is highlighting three of them that stand out to us – in the United States, Argentina, and Côte d’Ivoire. The issues each of those electorates face are different, but the results could provide insight into the future of larger political trends.
Democrats seek a glimmer of hope
The United States doesn’t have a nationwide election this fall, but it has plenty of local ones to pique the interest of political nerds. These include the mayoral election in New York City, gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, and state Supreme Court races in the purple state of Pennsylvania – Election Day for all them is Nov. 4.
“Democrats probably should win all those races for this election to be to feel like a success for them,” University of Virginia politics expert Kyle Kondik told GZERO.
Though these races are local, they have national implications, as the Democratic Party desperately seeks to build some momentum after a tough year. The party is struggling for leadership, its messaging has been muddled, and it hasn’t been able to even temper – let alone stop – President Donald Trump’s policy agenda.
One Democrat who has brought some life to the party this year is Zohran Mamdani, the nominee for New York City mayor. A democratic socialist, Mamdani rode the waves of a successful social-media campaign to defeat former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in the primary, and is now all-but-certain to become the mayor. This doesn’t mean his message, though, will work elsewhere in the country.
“There may be something appealing about Mamdani’s campaigning style – the short videos, that sort of thing.” said Kondik. “But I don’t think staking out left-wing positions is going to suddenly be seen as a winning strategy.”
Can Milei clean up the midterm mess?
Argentine President Javier Milei’s libertarian movement is on the line as the South American country heads to the polls on Sunday in legislative elections.
The economist-turned-politician, replete with his mutton chops and sometimes a chainsaw, has become a figurehead for a global movement to slash the size of government via “shock therapy.” However, he’s faced some roadblocks recently: unemployment is increasing, the economy is slowing, and a corruption scandal sent government bonds tumbling over the summer. It didn’t help matters that his foreign minister resigned on Wednesday. This has all overshadowed the significant progress that Milei has made in cutting the country’s notoriously high inflation rate.
Though Milei isn’t personally on the ballot this year, an ally from afar has tried to throw his party a lifeline: US President Donald Trump pledged to hand Argentina a $20-billion bailout. The money comes with conditions, though. “If he doesn’t win, we’re gone,” Trump said. “If he loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina.”
So what’s Milei’s target? Milei’s Libertad Avanza party is still nascent – it was only formed in 2021 – so it has only scant representation in the National Congress. What’s more, only a third of senators are up for reelection, and half the Chamber of Deputies. The goal for Milei, then, is simply to nab a third of all seats in the lower chamber, which will be enough to give him veto power.
Will it happen? “The expectation a couple of months ago was the government was expecting to have a very strong performance in the election and win at least a third of the seats.” Juan Cruz Díaz, the managing director of Buenos Aires-based advisory firm Cefeidas Group, told GZERO. “Now the situation is more challenging.”
Another old leader set to retain power on world’s youngest continent
Côte d’Ivoire on Africa’s West Coast is known for many things: it is the world’s largest cocoa producer, it has large gold reserves – particularly important with gold prices sky high – and it has had its share of world-class soccer players, most notably Didier Drogba.
One thing that the country isn’t known for, at least recently, is democracy. The country hasn’t had a peaceful transition of power in decades: two of the last three presidents were forcibly deposed, and the other was assassinated two years after leaving office. Meanwhile the incumbent leader Alassane Ouattara, who is 83 and seeking a fourth term, has clamped down on opposition leaders and restricted mass gatherings on the grounds that it could cause yet another coup.
What’s more, the opposition is fragmented, according to Eurasia Group’s West Africa analyst Jeanne Ramier.
“Nobody has successfully managed to mobilize against the fourth term,” said Ramier. “Whereas, on the contrary, many people are actually advocating for Ouattara because he’s got a good record, because they want stability and peace.”
Ouattara’s impending victory also highlights a trend across Africa: There are several elderly leaders across the continent, and many are set to stay in charge. It’s a remarkable trend on what is the youngest continent in the world – by some distance – and one that is fueling concerns about the state of democracy across it.
Centrist senator and presidential candidate Rodrigo Paz of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), speaks onstage as he celebrates following preliminary results on the day of the presidential runoff election, in La Paz, Bolivia, on October 19, 2025.
Bolivia elected a new president on Sunday, the centrist Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira. The choice marks a sharp break from nearly two decades of left-wing dominance under the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS). It also makes Bolivia the latest Latin American nation to tilt right, as voters across the region tire of high inflation, rampant crime, corruption, and failed reforms. The shift has big implications for both Bolivia and the area’s economic and political future, as well as its relationship with the United States and China.
Why did Bolivia’s voters leave the left?
Bolivia’s economy is in crisis, due to its change in the past few years from an exporter to importer of oil and gas. This resulted in a foreign-currency shortage as the central bank depleted its reserve of US dollars to buy imported fuel. In 2024, GDP growth was an anemic 1%; in 2025, inflation hit 23%. Bolivia now has regular gas shortages, with motorists lining up for hours at filling stations. Voters blamed the MAS government of former President Evo Morales, who nationalized the oil and gas industry in 2006, initially producing prosperity but eventually faltering due to mismanagement and a lack of investment.
Morales also had a slew of personal failings. In 2019, he fled the country following accusations of corruption, only to return a year later. In 2025, he was charged with statutory rape after fathering a child with a 15-year-old girl, and hid in the jungle to avoid arrest. In the wake of the latest scandal, his party imploded, and MAS’ replacement candidate for president scored a mere 3% in the first round of voting in August.
What does the new president promise to do?
Paz pledged to reform the economy, crack down on crime, and cultivate closer ties with Washington. However, he did not go as far as his chief rival, former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, who campaigned on austerity measures, an IMF bailout, and extensive spending cuts. Paz promoted more incremental change, including tax incentives for small businesses, and greater fiscal autonomy for local governments. He also promised to phase out fuel subsidies, angering labor unions who oppose any cuts to social programs.
Paz’s Christian Democrat Party (PDC) failed to get a majority of seats, meaning that he will have to compromise on some policies to establish a workable coalition. The PDC won 49 of 130 seats in the lower house and 16 of 36 in the Senate, while Quiroga’s coalition, Freedom and Democracy (Libre), won 43 seats in the lower house and 12 in the Senate. While Paz and Quiroga agree on certain policies, such as foreign affairs, on others Paz could find common ground with the Unity party (Unidad Nacional) of Samuel Doria Medina, whose support was instrumental to Paz’s victory in the runoff election.
Part of a pattern?
Across Latin America, the political pendulum has swung away from the “pink tide” of the early 2000s, led by the late Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, as well as socialist parties in Ecuador, Bolivia and Nicaragua. Over the past few years, the governments of Argentina’s Javier Milei, El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele and Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa have all advanced right-leaning agendas, promoting libertarian economics and security crackdowns. In Brazil’s and Chile’s recent municipal elections, center-right parties also made strong gains.
What this means for the US and China
Bolivia will likely align with Washington on trade and foreign policy, which will have implications for China. Morales had cultivated greater alignment with Beijing, as had much of South America: today China is South America’s largest trading partner and the second largest for Latin America after the US. While the Chinese demand for commodities remains strong, friendly right-of-center governments could provide an opening for Washington to divert more of the continent’s critical mineral exports to the American market.
The rightward swing also portends increased cooperation with the US on migration, security, and crime. The Trump administration already has an ally in Bukele, whose notorious supermax prisons are paid to incarcerate American deportees. US President Donald Trump has also declared war on drugs in the region: the CIA is now conducting operations inside Venezuela, the US has struck smuggling vessels carrying both Venezuelan and Colombian nationals, and Trump has now cut off aid to Colombia, calling its president a “drug leader.” Right-wing governments could potentially be more cooperative with Washington on curbing narcotics production and trafficking.
Upcoming elections
Voters in Colombia, Chile, Peru, and Brazil will be going to the polls within the next twelve months. Their choices could either reinforce or reverse the current trend.
“We’re expecting a broader shift to the right in most upcoming elections due to popular frustration with leftist incumbents,” says Eurasia Group’s Latin America Director Risa Grais-Targow. “While Bolivia fits that trend, the election was driven mostly by economic concerns, while votes in Chile, Colombia, and Peru are likely to be shaped more by security concerns, which has become the main voter concern in much of the region.”
But Latin America’s rightward shift isn’t monolithic: according to Grais-Targow, Brazil’s election looks closer to a toss-up, with Lula currently the slight favorite to win. If Paz succeeds in delivering growth, security and investment in Bolivia, however, this weekend’s vote could set the tone for other elections to come.
What We’re Watching: Peru declares state of emergency, Trump to meet Zelensky after Putin call, Bangladesh seeks to end political upheaval
People attend a vigil in memory of Mauricio Ruiz, a 32-year-old man who was killed during Wednesday's protest against Peru's President Jose Jeri, days after Jeri took office, in Lima, Peru, on October 16, 2025.
Peru declares state of emergency in capital city
It’s been a rough period for the country that is renowned for the stunning and peaceful mountain citadel of Machu Picchu. About a month ago, protests broke out against President Dina Boluarte’s pension reforms, government corruption and rising crime. Last weekend, the Congress impeached Boluarte and removed her from office over her failure to address these issues. Now, the Peruvian government is declaring a state of emergency in Lima after the protests, which haven’t stopped, turned deadly – police shot and killed a 32-year-old man on Wednesday at demonstrations outside the Congress.
With Gaza deal done, can Trump bring peace to Ukraine?
US President Donald Trump said he had a “very productive” phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday, the first time they had spoken since their Alaska meeting in August, adding that they would have another in-person meeting in the Hungarian capital of Budapest in the next few weeks. The call, which the Kremlin said came at Putin’s behest, came right before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s White House visit, where he was expected to ask about which weapons systems the US can provide him. Trump had reportedly been mulling sending Tomahawk missiles to the Ukrainians, but he appeared to pour cold water on the idea following his chat with Putin.
Bangladesh’s new charter doesn’t please all
Bangladesh has been engulfed by chaos ever since then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina allegedly ordered the use of lethal force on student protesters last year. Trying to find a path forward, the South Asian country’s leading parties came together Friday to sign a new political charter. Yet not everyone is happy: Violent protests broke out in Dhaka amid the signing, as demonstrators felt the charter didn’t have a means to guarantee its commitments, including providing justice for the victims of last year’s killings. Meanwhile Bangladeshi prosecutors are seeking the death penalty for the former leader over her actions during last year’s deadly demonstrations. With elections scheduled for February, can the Bangladeshi government establish some calm among its 173-million-strong population?What We’re Watching: Trump makes conditional pledge to Argentina’s Milei, Syria’s new leader meets old foe, Cameroon’s opposition leader declares victory
US President Donald Trump and Argentine President Javier Milei react at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on October 14, 2025.
Trump pledges money to Argentina – if Milei’s party wins midterm
US President Donald Trump appeared to hand Argentine President Javier Milei a financial lifeline ahead of the South American nation’s midterm election later this month, pledging to grant the long-suffering economy a $20-billion bailout. But, the US leader added, “If he loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina.” Trump denied that he was seeking to boost Milei ahead of the midterms, but Democrats criticized him for helping out a foreign administration while the US federal government is shut down. It’s also unclear what would constitute enough of a “win” for Milei in the eyes of Trump – the Argentine leader is hoping to win a third of Chamber of Deputies seats so that he can gain veto power.
Syria and Russia meeting turn enemies into allies again
Syria’s new President Ahmed al-Sharaa visited Russia on Wednesday, meeting with one of the biggest backers of the Assad regime he overthrew. Both Syria and Russia have reasons to bury that hatchet. Al-Sharaa is seeking guarantees that Russia won’t rearm remnants of Assad’s forces, and could instead help rebuild Syria’s army. He also implored Moscow to hand over Assad to face trial in Syria. Meanwhile, Russia has lost or been restricted from accessing its military bases and naval ports in Syria, which provide Russia its only stopover points in the eastern Mediterranean for planes and ships traveling to Africa. Following the meeting, al-Sharaa said that Syria would honor all past deals struck between the two countries, suggesting that Russia’s military bases may be open for business again soon.
Cameroon’s opposition leader declares victory over 43-year incumbent
One might not expect that a battle between a 92-year-old and a 79-year-old — who happens to be his former friend — would necessarily have such major consequences for a country, but that’s exactly the case for Cameroon. Opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary, 79, claimed victory yesterday over President Paul Biya, 92, following Sunday’s presidential election, and called on the long-time leader to “honour the truth of the ballot box.” Biya’s party denied Tchiroma’s claims, though the long-time leader hasn’t necessarily been the most reliable practitioner of democracy. The official results for Sunday’s poll have yet to be announced – the deadline for their certification is Oct. 26.
64: Torrid rains in Mexico last week – the result of an unusual clash of hot and cold fronts – have left 64 dead and another 65 missing. The rain damaged some 100,000 homes, and has left five states without power. The worst-affected areas were in the central parts of the country, as well as along the Gulf Coast.
3: Just three days after the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded its Peace Prize to Venezuela’s opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, Caracas shut its embassy in Oslo on Monday. The Venezuelan didn’t mention Machado in its statement about the closure. Norway also suffered a diplomatic blow for similar reasons in 2010, when China suspended trade relations after the Nobel Committee awarded its prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo.
5: China sanctioned five US-linked subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, accusing them of aiding US investigations. The move coincided with new US-China port fees and sent Hanwha shares down nearly 6%. Seoul said it’s assessing the impact as tensions over shipbuilding escalate.Hard Numbers: Trump sets Hamas deadline, Venezuela vents at US, Diddy awaits fate, Church of England appoints first female leader
Israeli protestors hold up pictures of Israeli soldiers held by Hamas in Gaza during a demonstration earlier this week following the announcement of a Gaza ceasefire proposal by US President Donald Trump and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.
2200: Donald Trump has given Hamas until Sunday at 2200 GMT – which is 6pm in Washington, DC –to accept the Gaza deal that he and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu proposed earlier this week. The framework calls for the release of Hamas-held hostages in exchange for Israeli-held Palestinian prisoners, a phased withdrawal of Israeli troops, an internationally-overseen transitional Gaza government, and amnesty for Hamas fighters who lay down arms. If the group refuses, Trump said, “all hell” will break loose.
5: Venezuela accused the US of “provocation” after detecting five US fighter jets near its Caribbean coast on Thursday. The flyover follows Trump telling Congress that the US is in an “armed conflict” and recent US strikes on alleged Venezuela-linked drug-trafficking boats. Caracas fears Washington’s real aim is to oust President Nicolás Maduro – read what that could look like here.
11: Music mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs will be sentenced Friday in Manhattan federal court after his recent conviction on charges that he transported women across state lines for prostitution. Acquitted of more serious charges, he faces a wide sentencing range: with the defense seeking no more than 14 months, while prosecutors want 11 years.
1: Dame Sarah Mullally, former chief nursing officer for England, has been appointed the first female archbishop of Canterbury to lead the Church of England. The church did not allow women to become bishops until 2014.
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro attends to a military event in Caracas, Venezuela August 4, 2018.
The Trump administration is moving closer to a direct confrontation with Venezuela, raising the possibility of what the president once vowed to avoid: another US-backed regime change.
Washington has already deployed warships, surveillance planes, and submarines to the Caribbean, and indicated the possibility of a strike inside Venezuela. US forces recently sank Venezuelan boats claiming drug smugglers were aboard, killing 17 people. At the same time, officials have branded Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro a cartel boss, “fugitive of American justice,” and threatened to categorize his government as a “state sponsor of terror.”
Behind the scenes, senior officials are actively debating whether to escalate further. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, White House policy chief Stephen Miller, and CIA Director John Ratcliff are leading the charge for Maduro’s ouster. Their strategy appears to hinge on applying enough military pressure to trigger an internal rupture — splitting the regime and forcing the Venezuelan military to abandon its leader.
“I think the administration has been pretty clearly signaling that they would like to strike,” said Eurasia Group Latin America director Risa Grais-Targow. “If they haven’t yet, it’s less about lack of desire than an inability to identify reliable targets — US intelligence inside Venezuela has long been weak.”
The stakes are high. Though opposition leaders, including recent election winner Edmundo González, have signaled readiness to govern, most analysts doubt a smooth handover is likely. The opposition won the country’s 2024 presidential election but was denied power after Maduro refused to step down, and has been lobbying Washington ever since to put economic and military pressure on Maduro’s regime.
But a more probable outcome would be an initial transition from within the regime itself — perhaps a senior military figure replacing Maduro. But as Grais-Targow cautioned, “Even if Maduro is removed, the transition will be long, messy, and potentially violent. Deep mistrust between the opposition and the military makes a clean break unlikely.”
And there’s always the chance of blowback. Limited US strikes could strengthen Maduro’s grip by rallying regime loyalists and even some ordinary Venezuelans against a foreign threat. For many in Latin America, US-imposed regime change recalls a long history of interventions that left behind bloodshed and instability.
Why risk it? Three drivers appear to be shaping Trump’s calculus. First, drugs: disrupting smuggling routes plays well with voters concerned about fentanyl and cocaine flowing into swing states. Second, ideology: Rubio and other hawks see Maduro’s fall as the first domino in toppling Cuba and Nicaragua next. Third, geopolitics: Trump views Latin America as America’s backyard, where a military buildup is also a show of strength against China, which has become the region's biggest economic partner in recent years.
“Trump sees Latin America as within the US sphere of influence, and he's really keen to exert US dominance in the region vis-a-vis China," says Grais-Targow.