Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
Latin America & Caribbean
Supporters of Jose Antonio Kast, presidential candidate of the far-right Republican Party, wave Chilean flags as they attend one of Kast's last closing campaign rallies, ahead of the November 16 presidential election, in Santiago, Chile, on November 11, 2025.
This Sunday, close to 16 million Chilean voters will head to the polls in a starkly polarized presidential election shaped by rising fears of crime and immigration.
The vote comes after a tumultuous few years in normally staid Chile, the world’s largest copper producer and the wealthiest large economy in Latin America.
Under the presidency of youthful left-winger Gabriel Boric, who was elected in 2021 following mass protests over inequality, Chilean voters rejected two separate rewrites of the constitution which were meant to address living costs, pensions, and employment.
One was too liberal, enshrining “cosmovisions” in the national charter. The other was too conservative, hewing too closely to the existing constitution written half a century ago under rightwing autocrat Augusto Pinochet.
Now, despite some successes in strengthening labor laws and winning a bruising fight over pension reforms, Boric is set to leave office deeply unpopular, with an approval rating in the 30s and an economy in the doldrums.
After so much upheaval, “the public appetite for sweeping changes has receded,” says Maria Luisa Puig, an expert at Eurasia Group.
Chileans’ main concerns now are, as in many Latin American countries, crime and migration. Nearly half of voters say crime is the number one issue for them, while 30% point to the border, according to Chilean pollster Activa. Only about 20% cite unemployment.
Although homicides have been falling since a 2022 peak, they are still double what they were ten years ago. Kidnappings remain near historic highs.
At the same time, immigration has soared, in particular from Venezuela – there are nearly 700,000 Venezuelan migrants in the country, almost tenfold the number from 2017. A rash of high profile killings and shootouts by Venezuelan gangs has fueled a backlash against immigrants more broadly.
Who’s running in the election?
Topping the polls, with about 27% support, is Jeanette Jara, a lifelong member of the Communist Party who served as Boric’s Labor Minister. She wants to increase the minimum wage, boost social spending, and modernize the police.
Trailing her are two hard-right politicians. One is José Antonio Kast, an ultra-conservative Catholic father of nine who lost to Boric in 2021, who wants to seal the border, cut spending, and expand prisons. He polls at roughly 20%. The other, libertarian Johannes Kaiser, goes further, pledging to slash two-thirds of government ministries immediately, to crack down on migration, and to withdraw from global pacts on climate change and human rights. Like Kast, he openly admires Pinochet.
Jara’s lead is deceptive. The right wing vote is badly fragmented – a result of the conservative candidates’ inability to agree on a unified primary earlier this year.
With no one set to win more than 50% of the vote, the election will go to a December runoff featuring the top two finishers from this Sunday. Jara will be one of them, and Kast is likely to be the other, though Kaiser has seen a late bump in the polls.
Polls suggest Jara, facing a united right wing and conservative vote, would lose in any head-to-head matchup. With Chileans in a “throw-the-bums out” frame of mind, her ties to Boric are a liability.
In the end, Puig says, “this is a ‘change’ election.” And according to polls, Chileans are ready for it. For the first time in more than four years, a majority say they are “optimistic” about the future of the country.
More soon: the results should be in by Monday morning.
Argentina's inflation rate year over year October 2024 to Oct 2025
Argentina’s president Javier Milei inherited inflation that was over 200%, but after 18 consecutive months of it falling, it now stands at just 31%. While that is still one of the world’s highest, it is an impressive improvement. It comes as the US has sought to prop up Argentina’s economy, recently giving nearly $1 billion of its International Monetary Fund reserves to help Argentina make a critical debt payment to the IMF. The transaction follows the US recently providing Argentina with a $20 billion currency swap to stabilize the peso.
South Sudan President Salva Kiir prepares to welcome Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni at the Juba International Airport, ahead of meetings aimed at averting a new civil war after South Sudan's First Vice President Riek Machar was placed under house arrest, in Juba, South Sudan April 3, 2025.
South Sudan’s president fires another VP
President Salva Kiir continued to take a wrecking ball to his country’s leadership structure this week, firing Benjamin Bol Mel, who was one of his vice presidents. He also sacked the central bank governor and the head of the revenue authority without giving reasons for the removals. The move comes after President Kiir in March put then-Vice President Rick Machar under house arrest, before charging him with murder in September – Kiir and Machar had entered a power-sharing agreement to end the civil war. Experts are concerned that Kiir’s moves will pull the sub-Saharan state back into civil war, only five years after it ended.
Iran’s water crisis threatens to empty Tehran
Iran may have to evacuate its capital Tehran – home to 10 million people – if it doesn’t rain by December, according to its President Masoud Pezeshkian. The water crisis is due to decades of mismanagement and inefficient agriculture practices, compounded by a lack of access to new technology because of international sanctions. It comes as Iranians are also enduring frequent electricity and gas shortages, heightening the risk that civil unrest could destabilize the regime.
What We’re Watching: UK’s Starmer on the ropes, Mexico’s Sheinbaum beefs up security in wild West, Hamas fighters trapped in their own tunnels
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves 10 Downing Street in London, United Kingdom, on November 12, 2025.
Is the UK’s prime minister heading for the exit?
Just 18 months after Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won a 174-seat majority in Parliament, he’s now clinging to power, with reports that he could be removed when he announces the budget in two weeks’ time. His allies say he will fight any attempts from within the party to oust him. Why is Starmer struggling? The economy is stagnant, he can’t unite his party, and he hasn’t crafted a clear vision for the country amid pressure from both the left and the right. To initiate the removal process, though, 20% of Labour MPs must nominate a challenger. Will any of Starmer’s allies turn on him and run against the PM?
Mexico’s president vs. the narcos of Michoacán
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is facing a major test of her security policy in the cartel-riddled western state of Michoacán, where the recent assassination of a popular mayor has sparked protests. Sheinbaum has sent in an additional 1,000 federal troops, bringing the total deployment to 10,000, and pledged $3 billion to boost security while also tackling poverty and other root causes of cartel power. Since taking office a year ago, Sheinbaum has pursued a harder line against cartels than her political patron and predecessor, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, in part because of heightened pressure from the Trump administration.
Trapped Hamas fighters put Phase 2 of ceasefire in jeopardy
As Phase 1 of Gaza's ceasefire nears its end, 200 Hamas fighters who are not being allowed to leave tunnels in Israeli-controlled Rafah have emerged as a critical obstacle. Hamas wants them to be granted safe passage to Hamas-controlled areas – an idea that US special envoy Steve Witkoff was amenable to in exchange for the terrorist group disarming. However, Israel is reluctant to allow them to go free. Phase 2 negotiations began yesterday, which will require Hamas disarmament, IDF withdrawal, a transitional government, and international peacekeepers. But resolving the tunnel standoff comes first. Even then, documents obtained by Politico reveal Trump administration officials harbor deep doubts about whether both sides will follow through on Phase 2.
Hard Numbers: Israel arrests violent settlers, US House ends extended recess, Botswana eyes majority stake in diamond giant, & More
An Israeli activist is seen recording illegal settlers driving past a village in Masafer Yatta in the West Bank, on October 28, 2025.
4: Israeli police arrested four Jewish nationalists Tuesday after dozens of them attacked Palestinians and set fire to property in the West Bank. The issue of settler violence in the region has grown over the last two years – in tandem with the war in Gaza – but has spiked further in recent weeks, as Palestinians have been taking to the fields to harvest olives.
54: Who wouldn’t enjoy an almost eight-week break? Well that’s just what members of the US House of Representatives have had, but they are finally returning from their 54-day recess to vote on a continuing resolution that will end the government shutdown. Expect a vote later today.
49: A Catholic mother in the Normandy town of Dozule claimed in the 1970s that she had seen Jesus (of Nazareth) not once, not twice, but 49 times. The Vatican disagrees, though, affirming today that reports of those sightings were not genuine. The last Vatican-confirmed Jesus sighting was in 2013, when his face reportedly appeared at a church in India.
14: Hungary has extended a profit-margin cap to 14 more consumer products, including apples and processed cheese, as inflation remains elevated. Ahead of next spring elections, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is increasingly under pressure from Peter Magyar, the popular Fidesz defector who is now leading him in some polls.
15%: Botswana is bidding to acquire a majority stake of the diamond giant De Beers, up from its 15% share of the firm. The southern African nation’s move is part of an effort to reverse the diamond industry downturn – read all about that here (and watch a video about it here).
Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz walk after a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), in Belem, Brazil, on November 7, 2025.
When it comes to global warming, the hottest ticket in the world right now is for the COP30 conference, which runs for the next week in Brazil.
What’s COP30? It’s the 30th installment of an annual UN-backed event that brings together world leaders, diplomats, and experts for two broad purposes: finding ways to slow global warming and to address the impacts of climate change.
This year’s meeting, held in the Amazon rainforest city of Belém, comes amid huge new challenges to the climate agenda. The government of the world’s largest economy, the US, is once again actively hostile towards climate policy. The world’s leading philanthropist, Bill Gates, has recently downgraded climate change as a key concern.
What’s more, it’s been ten years since nearly 200 countries signed the Paris Agreement, pledging to reduce emissions in order to keep global temperature rises within specific targets. The efforts have largely failed, and the targets are now unreachable.
So what is achievable at this year’s COP? To learn more we sat down with Herbert Crowther, an energy and climate expert at Eurasia Group. Our conversation has been lightly edited.
GZERO: Herbert, you’re on your way to COP 30 in Brazil. How does this COP feel different from previous ones? Are the stakes higher? Lower?
This COP feels different because there isn’t a single trademark deliverable or negotiating point. Most other recent COPs have had that: last year at COP29 it was about setting financing targets, for example.
This year the larger question is how to find ways to address the current geopolitical obstacles. The Brazilian COP hosts have tried to frame this in terms of COP30 being about “implementation” of prior commitments rather than negotiating new commitments, but that framing has faced some pushback.
So it’s all much more unpredictable than other recent gatherings. From a negotiating point of view, the stakes are perhaps lower – but from a political sentiment point of view, the stakes are higher.
GZERO: The Trump administration has left the Paris Agreement. Bill Gates is focusing on other things. That means two huge, longstanding pillars of support for climate policy are now gone. Who is going to drive this stuff now?
Those are real headwinds. But there are other data points that are less foreboding. Besides the US, no other country has departed the Paris Agreement. The costs of low-carbon energy continue to drop, driven in significant part by Chinese manufacturers. The private sector generally remains bullish on decarbonization technologies. And many philanthropies will still engage in climate work, even as they change their public framing around it or prioritize other issues. The area where politics may be most disruptive is in the question of financing: projects may be more difficult to finance and more reliant on government support.
GZERO: What’s a realistic expectation of what can be achieved at this COP? What are you most optimistic about and what are you most pessimistic about?
We will likely see more agreements between countries on carbon trading, as well as some new targets for financing and monitoring projects that help countries to adapt to climate change.
I’m more pessimistic on the ability of COP30 to find a political message that will respond effectively to this geopolitical environment. In many ways, a positive vision for COP30 is simply to maintain credibility for the multilateral process, and to create conditions for a COP31 next year that has more time to identify solutions tailored to this geopolitical environment.
GZERO: A lay reader, or a person who doesn’t follow climate policy closely, might look at the headlines about how countries keep failing to meet their obligations, and wonder “why keep having COP at all?” How would you answer that?
That’s a very understandable concern. What is sometimes lost by those headlines is the value of the COP process as a choreography mechanism to encourage countries to regularly deepen their long-term climate ambitions. Most countries have done this ahead of COP30 with new 2035 targets, even if those commitments are not as ambitious as many observers would like. Recalibrating expectations and finding a new political framework for the whole process will be a topic of discussion in Belém.
No matter what happens, you’ll be in Brazil! What’s one thing you’re excited to do there that has NOTHING to do with climate change?
I am looking forward to seeing Belém – my first time in the Amazon! I will be consuming lots of Brazilian espressos throughout the week.
Have a couple for us too – enjoy!
What We’re Watching: Milei sticks to his guns, Putin gets ready to test, Central Asia comes to Washington
Argentina's President Javier Milei gestures after the La Libertad Avanza party won the midterm election, which is seen as crucial for Milei's administration after US President Donald Trump warned that future support for Argentina would depend on Milei's party performing well in the vote, in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on October 26, 2025.
Argentina’s Milei says no float just yet
Argentine President Javier Milei says he still won’t float the peso freely, signaling he’ll continue to spend his country’s central bank reserves to artificially manage the exchange rate until the 2027 presidential election. Why is that a big deal? Just last month, ahead of the midterm elections, Milei got $2 billion from the United States – as well as a $20 billion credit line – to shore up dwindling reserves. Keeping the currency strong is part of his broader effort to bring down inflation, which includes taking a chainsaw to government spending. But investors expected that after the midterms – which he won handily – he’d move in a more market- friendly direction, letting the peso float. So much for that. If the policy puts reserves in danger again, will the self-styled “anarcho-capitalist” president get another bailout from Tío Sam?
Putin signals he’s ready to match any new US nuclear tests
Just days after US President Donald Trump announced that the Pentagon would resume nuclear testing – without going into some key details – Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled he is ready to do the same, asking members of his security council yesterday for proposals. Neither country has tested a nuclear warhead in decades, although both still test and maintain delivery systems such as rockets and missiles. A return to actual warhead testing could provoke a dangerous new arms race at a time when arms control agreements are already withering fast. For more, see our recent report here.
The ‘stans come to stan Trump
The leaders of the five Central Asian republics – can you name them? – will meet with Trump at the White House today. Russia has long dominated the resource-rich former-Soviet region, but China has made significant commercial inroads in recent years. Trump is seeking greater US access to critical minerals and other resources there, while the Central Asians – wary of both Russian intentions and China’s heft – are keen to diversify their economic and security ties. (Btw, the five are: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Did you get ‘em all?)