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Perp walks, plane crashes, and debating the future
On any other day, we might start our GZERO North newsletter with the housing crisis afflicting the US and Canada and what, if anything, the federal governments should do about it (they have to act, and mewling an excuse about this not being federal jurisdiction is the political equivalent of “the dog ate my homework!”).
Or maybe you’re thinking, hey GZERO, what about this ugly dispute between Canada and the big tech giants like Meta, which has already led to the banning of Canadian news on Facebook and will likely lead to a digital services tax of 3% by January. Won’t the Biden folks, in an election year, pump out some retaliatory tariffs to send a signal to other countries that says: “Don’t follow those northern syrup-suckers and Thelma-and-Louise it off the digital trade cliff! Read our lips: No Digital Tax!” So, is this the start of a nasty little US-Canada trade war?
Probably, but it’s hard to focus on all those … After all, as I write this, we’re awaiting an unbelievable sight: a presidential perp walk. Yes, former President Donald Trump is in Georgia to slouch his way toward Fulton County Jail, this time alongside 18 others. (Trump and the 18 would be a good name for a band, with a remixed single called “91 Problems”). But even that is barely the headline. What about last night?
In the land of “Laverne and Shirley,” Republicans adopted lines from the long-running sitcom’s theme tune: “Read us any rule – we'll break it” to do it their way (well, their new way, at least). Sans Trump, eight political benchwarmers got to star in the Milwaukee political exhibition game known as a primary debate. Outside of picking the winners and losers (we did that in our morning newsletter, check it out), the real message was: The Republican center cannot hold.
For every moment that former VP Mike Pence tried to defend the classic Republican stance on, say, support for Ukraine, or that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley looked for consensus on abortion, or former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie suggested that Trump’s conduct was unbecoming of the presidency, the responses reflected a party being pulled right by the gravitational force of Donald Trump. Oops, I forgot to mention Ron DeSantis. He was stolid in that wooden-puppet-comes-to-life-kinda way but was a bit … forgettable, which is his biggest challenge. (Meanwhile, as the debate aired, Trump was over on X, formerly known as Twitter, with Tucker Carlson, rehashing conspiracy theories on how convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein was killed and no doubt pinching ratings).
Almost all of the candidates said they would support Trump if he becomes the nominee, even if convicted, but none more so than the human Trump pom-pom, Vivek Ramaswamy.
The super-smart, accomplished, splashy, 38-year-old is approachable, compelling, and extremely far to the right of the others. Dismantle the department of education and the FBI? Yup. Pull support from Ukraine? Yup. Climate change is a hoax? Duh. Still, the political neophyte is making the fringe fashionable, and he kinda won the night. Vivek’s debate prep, which included his inexplicably bizarre topless tennis training video, must have also included a four-course meal of Energizer bunnies because he hyperactively hopped from topic to topic, lobbing electric zingers that made him the major candidate in a minor group.
Foreign governments like Canada, which have already admitted spending a fair bit of time prepping for another Trump administration (more on that below), must now recalibrate. Trump is no longer an outlier surrounded by some corrective forces; he is the insider surrounded by sycophantic forces. Any new Republican administration would mean all bets are off for alliances, trade deals, and an American-led multilateral world.
And even that’s not the headline. I haven’t even mentioned Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s long-expected demise two months after he mounted his mini-insurrection. Putin has not admitted he downed Prigozhin’s private plane, but give the man his bloody due: Putin is the Air Jordan of assassination, and if his logo was not on the killing, his brand was all over it.
All of this means what to the US-Canada relationship? It means the world outside the neighborhood is getting more chaotic, and so is the world inside of it. Lest you think the problem is only on the Republican right, it ain’t. Both Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau are facing angry electorates, struggling economies, and are both about as popular as a free plane ride with Prigozhin. Meanwhile, silver-spoon spoiler Robert Kennedy Jr. is sawing off the radical left flank with his antisemitic medical memes and doing weird topless training videos of his own. Progressives are doddering to find their own way forward, and their efforts don’t look too hot either.
In other words, the summer silly season of politics has come to an early end, and we need to make sense of things now more than ever.
The fire-ravaged town of Lahaina on the island of Maui in Hawaii.
Fires undermine tourism in B.C., Maui
Tourist operators in both British Columbia and Hawaii are suffering as a result of catastrophic wildfires. Both want and need potential customers to return, though travel restrictions remain in the parts of B.C. that are still on fire.
In Maui, 115 are confirmed dead and hundreds remain missing as a result of the wildfires in Lahaina, which experts blame on climate change. The blazes destroyed the historic town, and more than 8,000 people have been thrown out of work by the sudden collapse of the tourism industry. Still, other parts of Maui remain open for business, and tourism operators in those areas are hoping visitors will return before they go broke.
Gov. Josh Green launched an appeal on Tuesday, asking tourists to return. “When you come, you will support our local economy and help speed the recovery of the people who are suffering right now.”
In British Columbia, where the fires are still burning, the industry is worried about the long-term impact because the area’s brand is dependent on its natural beauty. But travel bans on fire-stricken areas are likely to remain in place for some time.
A medical worker administers a nasal swab to a patient at a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) testing center
Hard Numbers: COVID hospitalizations, fiery moves, banking job cuts, traffic jams
21.6 & 7: Data from the CDC and Canada’s government show that, since last week, COVID-19 hospitalization rates have risen in the US and Canada by 21.6% and 7%, respectively. The Canadian number seems low, but it follows an 11% increase the week before, putting hospitalizations 20% percent higher than they were last year. Both countries are seeing increases in positive cases – early signals that a fall COVID wave could be approaching while updated booster shots are still weeks away.
13: Following the wildfire summer from hell and the smoky conditions of the past two years,13% of Canadians say they would consider relocating to a place that feels safer, according to a new Angus Reid survey. Many have seen their health problems worsen because of the poor air quality during this record-breaking wildfire season.
2: The Royal Bank of Canada, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s most valuable company, is cutting 2% of its workforce – despite making Q3 profits that towered over the other Big Six banks. Following an earlier cut in May, it has just announced that it will cut another 2% of its workforce this quarter. It cites overhiring and the need to set aside capital for potential credit losses due to rate hikes.
199 vs. 236: This could drive folks crazy. Drivers in Toronto spend 199 hours a year in rush hour traffic, and in New York City, they can expect to spend a whopping 236 hours stuck idling each year. Hollywood star Tom Cruise recently criticized Toronto’s traffic during an interview for his “Mission Impossible” (he shot the movie there) tour. But, according to this study by the UK’s Nationwide Vehicle Contracts, Cruise’s mission would’ve been even more impossible in the Big Apple.A view shows wildfires near a highway in Yellowknife, Canada.
Canadian fires cause city-wide evacuation
Around 20,000 residents of Yellowknife, the capital of Canada’s Northwest Territories, have been ordered to evacuate as deadly wildfires engulf the area.
Most are fleeing by car, but those who were unable to could register for evacuation flights, according to authorities.
The area around Yellowknife is the epicenter of the province’s diamond-mining industry – in 2016, the world’s largest new diamond mine opened up 175 miles from Yellowknife.
The scenes of hurried evacuations, blinding orange blazes and plumes of noxious smoke engulfing neighborhoods have come to define the summer for many Canadians, as the country grapples with its worst wildfire season on record. So far, 13.2 million hectares (32.6m acres) of land have been destroyed and a whopping 196,000 Canadians have been forced to flee from their homes – more than the past six years combined, according to fresh data.
The Graphic Truth: Canada wildfires scorch records
Canada’s 2023 wildfires are burning at a record pace. Blazes have forced thousands to evacuate, burned hundreds of homes, and resulted in four deaths. Smoke from this intense season has brought haze to North American skylines, worsening air quality for Canadians and Americans.
The season started early due to hot, dry weather conditions across Canada, and the amount of forest and land burned by the 4,765 fires has blown away the damage done over the last two decades.
To demonstrate how unprecedented Canada’s 2023 wildfire season has been, we look at two decades’ worth of data on land burned in wildfires in the US and Canada.
Smoke rises from the Texas Creek wildfire south of Lillooet, British Columbia.
Where there’s fire there’s smoke
Americans living along the Eastern Seaboard can be forgiven this summer for thinking Canada’s number one export to the United States is smoke. Once again this week, wildfires in eastern Canada have sharply reduced visibility in New York City and other cities in the US Northeast. But even residents of southern states like the Carolinas and Georgia are feeling the effects. Now, fires from Canada’s northwest are triggering air quality alerts from Portland, Oregon, to Plano, Texas. Some 44 million people in 28 states and Washington, DC, have been affected.
Firefighters in Canada are reportedly battling as many as 900 fires across the country, with two-thirds of those burning out of control. This year’s fires have burned more than 26 million acres in Canada, about 850% the usual number. The previous record, 17.5 million acres, was set in 1995. Canada’s wildfire season will continue for a few more months.
Aware that extreme weather events have both human and economic effects, governments in both countries are pledging to spend more on plans to help the most vulnerable citizens protect themselves. You can read a good summary of what policymakers are up to on both sides of the border here.Flames reach upwards along the edge of a wildfire as seen from a Canadian military helicopter near Mistissini, Quebec.
Cross-border deal for fighting wildfires
Canada’s wildfires are again causing smoke-filled haze to descend, along with air quality alerts, in parts of the United States and beyond, with residents everywhere from Chicago to Europe breathing in some Canadian smoke. And it’s still June – fire season doesn’t end until September.
To better battle blazes on both sides of the border, Canada and the United States have signed an agreement to cut through the red tape and make it easier for their respective firefighters to fly to each other’s aid as needed. This also gives Canada access to US wildfire intel. Before this, cooperative efforts were dependent upon individual agreements, which slowed efforts.
As the earth’s climate gets warmer, the vast northern forests are getting hotter and drier, making fires more likely. Wildfire seasons are starting earlier and running longer, and the fires are getting bigger and more dangerous.
On Monday, the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre reported that 76,129 square kilometers of forest and other land has already burned in Canada this year, beating a record set in 1989. More than 600 American firefighters have been able to come north to help this year because the US season did not get an early start, but they may soon be busy at home as American forests heat up.
President Joe Biden’s administration is spending billions to try to clean up forests choked with dead trees and undergrowth, but these efforts have fallen behind schedule, leaving hundreds of communities near federal forests at possible risk.
What’s worse, the Canadian fires have also hugely increased the emissions that cause climate change, sending 160 megatons of carbon into the atmosphere so far this year, according to Copernicus, a European Earth observation center.
Polling shows most Canadians believe climate change is at least partly responsible for the terrible wildfire season, and the majority believe the country is transitioning too slowly to clean energy. In the US, meanwhile, experts think that smoky air in big American cities may help change attitudes about the need for quick action to combat climate change.Climate activists take on … Montana
Helena, Montana, had a big first this week, and it was a long time coming. On Monday, a case got underway there in which 16 youth residents, aged 5 to 22, are suing the Land of Shining Mountains over climate change – the first-ever constitutional challenge of its kind in the country. The plaintiffs claim the state has violated their right to “a clean and healthful environment in Montana for present and future generations,” a provision that’s been in the state constitution since 1972.
Climate change lawsuits aren’t new. Europe has seen hundreds of them, and in Canada, one brought by youth activists in Ontario was dismissed in April. It was thrown out despite the judge noting the province’s climate policy “falls severely short” and “is contributing to an increase in the risk of death and in the risks faced by the Applicants and others.”
There have been several cases in the US since 2015, but this one is the first to make it to court. The lawsuit is proceeding thanks to the express right to a healthy environment enshrined in Montana’s constitution, despite the state’s long-term reliance on coal and fossil fuels for much of its industrial output.
The plaintiffs filed their lawsuit in 2020, claiming the state’s laws and policy, particularly on energy, are out of line with the constitutional guarantee. Since then, the state has tried to have the case thrown out, including two requests for the Montana Supreme Court to get involved. But it’s going ahead.
And the case is heading to court just as toxic smoke from what’s expected to be Canada’s worst-ever wildfire season has blown south into the US, painting apocalyptic skies throughout much of the Midwest and Northeast. The smoke left New York City with the world’s worst air quality. One of the plaintiffs in the Montana challenge, Grace Gibson Snyder, cites smoke from wildfires as an example of the state’s breach of environmental protection. Eerie, deadly orange skies drive home her point.
Last week, Canada’s Emergency Preparedness Minister Bill Blair said he’d been in touch with US officials to work on better natural disaster cooperation, including the possibility of “a NORAD-like approach” as the countries recognize that extreme weather, and their effects, aren’t going anywhere – and won’t respect borders.
Plenty of eyes in the US and around the world are watching and waiting to see what happens in Montana, including the possibility of a significant precedent. But will what happens in Montana stay in Montana?
Martin Olszynski, an associate law professor at the University of Calgary, says that “while judges on both sides of the border will sometimes draw comparisons and principles from each other, their respective decisions are not binding.” Moreover, “In Montana, there is this explicit right to a clean environment and that’s pretty powerful.” That right is not expressly included in the Canadian constitution, including its Charter of Rights and Freedoms. But the long game matters.
“Looking at the forest from the trees,” he says, “cases on both sides of the border can have a certain kind of momentum to them, and that’s bound to affect the legal landscape in both countries (and beyond).” In short, these challenges aren’t going anywhere anytime soon – just like climate change.