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Jess Frampton

Has China’s power peaked?

I had a fascinating debate on this question a few months ago with political scientist Michael Beckley, who wrote a thoughtful and compelling book arguing that China’s relative rise is over and, therefore, that the United States will remain the world’s sole superpower for the foreseeable future.

This isn’t a new claim. In fact, every few years going back decades we get a new big article or book saying China’s power is peaking and its decline (or even collapse) is imminent. So far, they’ve always been wrong. But could it be true this time?

Let’s break down the strongest arguments on both sides and decide (spoiler: I say “not so fast”).

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