What We're Watching: Turkey censors social media, Jordanians set to vote, China hacks the Vatican

What We're Watching: Turkey censors social media, Jordanians set to vote, China hacks the Vatican

Turkey suppresses social media: Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, likes to dominate the conversation. In power since 2003, he and his Justice and Development party have succeeded in tightening their grip on the media in recent years. More than 90 percent of the country's traditional media outlets are now controlled by companies with ties to the government. Turkey has also become one of the world's leading jailers of journalists. This media-control mission now extends into cyberspace. Since nationwide protests in 2013 and a coup attempt in 2016 threatened his hold on power, Erdogan has unleashed an army of trolls to attack critics and journalists. This week, Turkey's parliament passed legislation that forces social media platforms like Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter to remove content the government doesn't like. To enforce the law, which takes effect on October 1, these companies are required to open offices, and store user data, inside Turkey. Failure to comply could lead to bandwidth cuts of up to 95 percent that slow their speed and make them unusable inside Turkey's borders.


Jordan's messy elections: After Jordan's King Abdullah II issued a royal decree calling for parliamentary elections, the polls were scheduled for November 10. Although the Jordanian parliament has legislative powers, many see it as a tokenistic body made up of business elites who play a secondary role to the country's powerful monarchy. (The King has the constitutional mandate to appoint governments and pass legislation.) Indeed, political chaos is currently the order of the day in Jordan, where the main opposition party, the Jordanian branch of the Egyptian-based Muslim Brotherhood, was recently dissolved by Jordan's top court on the basis that the group had failed to "rectify its legal status." (Egypt has dubbed the group a terrorist organization.) The Muslim Brotherhood, meanwhile, has said it will appeal the verdict. Whatever the outcome, Jordan's new parliament will be charged with the difficult task of steering the country's post-pandemic economic recovery as unemployment soars and GDP is projected to contract by at least 3.5 percent this year.

China targets... the Vatican: Amid ongoing negotiations between Beijing and the Vatican to try and resolve a host of issues, state-sponsored Chinese groups have hacked the Holy See's digital infrastructure, according to a private cybersecurity group. The hacks, which occurred over the past three months, were launched as the Vatican and Beijing prepare to meet in September to discuss the Catholic Church's operations in China, long a point of contention between the two sides. Beijing and the Vatican have been at loggerheads for years, dating as far back as the 1950s when the Holy See officially recognized Taiwan. But the relationship has grown increasingly tense recently because of freedom of religion restrictions in China — including the establishment of detention camps for Muslim Uighurs and other minorities — as well as China's security crackdown in Hong Kong, which the Vatican has condemned. Upcoming negotiations were meant to be a continuation of a 2018 agreement where the two sides notionally agreed to a joint process for selecting bishop candidates to the official church in China. We're watching to see how this revelation affects what was supposed to be the start of some sort of détente.

This time last year, world health experts were speculating about why Africa appeared to have escaped the worst of the global pandemic. Younger populations? Natural immunity created by exposure to past viruses? Something else?

They can stop wondering. Africa is now in the grip of a COVID emergency.

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Listen: Stanford historian Niall Ferguson joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World podcast to talk about the geopolitics of disaster. Throughout human history we seem to be unable to adequately prepare for catastrophes (natural or human-caused) before they strike. Why is that? And as we emerge from the greatest calamity of our lifetimes in the COVID-19 pandemic and look to the plethora of crises that climate change has and will cause, what can we do to lessen the blow?

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Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi barred two Republican members from serving on the Jan. 6 commission. What's going on?

Well, the Jan. 6 commission was designed to be a bipartisan commission, taking input from members from Democrats and Republicans. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy had the opportunity to make recommendations but the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, could always veto those recommendations. In this case, she did, saying no to two members, Jim Banks and Jim Jordan, both of whom are strongly aligned with President Trump and who voted against certifying the election results in 2020. The Republicans for the most part see the Jan. 6 commission as an opportunity to score political points against them, and the Democrats say this is going to be a fair, non-biased, and nonpartisan investigation into what happened on Jan. 6, starting with a hearing next week with some of the police officers who were involved in the battle with the protesters inside the Capitol.

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In his New York Times op-ed, David Brooks says the US is facing an identity crisis — protecting liberal and progressive values at home while doing little to stop autocrats elsewhere. But has the US really abandoned its values abroad just because it's withdrawing from Afghanistan? Ian Bremmer and Eurasia Group analyst Charles Dunst take out the Red Pen to argue that the US can advance democracy without being the world's sheriff.

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When the Tokyo Olympics begin on Friday, Japan watchers will be following more than just the performance of Japan's star athletes, including tennis star Naomi Osaka. They will also be tracking the political fortunes of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who is taking a big gamble by staging the event — amid a raging pandemic — in the face of strong and longstanding opposition from the Japanese public. What are the stakes for Suga, particularly with elections on the horizon? Eurasia Group senior analyst Ali Wyne explains.

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YouTube pulls Bolsonaro's rants: Google-owned YouTube pulled down a series of videos on the channel of Brazil's populist President Jair Bolsonaro, accusing him of spreading misinformation about the pandemic. YouTube removed more than a dozen clips for touting quack cures for coronavirus or claiming, in defiance of scientific experts, that masks don't reduce COVID transmissions. Last year, Twitter and Facebook also removed some content from Bolsonaro's feeds for similar reasons. But critics say that YouTube's move is too little too late, because Bolsonaro has been spreading misinformation about COVID since the pandemic began. Many Brazilians hold him personally responsible for the country's abysmal pandemic response, which has led to almost 550,000 deaths, the second worst toll in the world. Will YouTube's move change Bolsonaro's message? His weekly address to the nation, where he converses not only with government ministers but also various conspiracy theorists and loons, is broadcast on YouTube. Surely he doesn't want to risk losing that — or does he?

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Boycotts! Bans! Protests! Drugs! Think you've got gold medal knowledge about politics at the Olympics? Test what you know with this special Tokyo Olympics Quiz. And to stay current on all the latest political stories at the Games and around the world, subscribe here to Signal, our daily newsletter. Now, without further ado, the first question is...

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