What We’re Watching: Unrest on the Isle of Enchantment

What We’re Watching: Unrest on the Isle of Enchantment

#Rickyleaks – A spectacular political crisis has erupted in the US commonwealth of Puerto Rico as tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets in recent days to demand the resignation of Governor Ricardo "Ricky" Rosselló. The trigger for the unrest was the leak of hundreds of text messages in which Rosselló and his associates use homophobic and sexist slurs against a wide variety of public officials and journalists—while joking about the death toll from Hurricane Maria. But this outburst of public fury reflects broader frustrations with mismanagement of post-Maria reconstruction, severe cutbacks in social services in response to a debt crisis, and decades of corrupt and detached politicians in charge of the "Island of Enchantment."

Ukraine's Elections – Comedian Volodymyr Zelensky was elected president two months ago, but the substantive part of his time in office will begin on Sunday, when elections are held for the Rada, Ukraine's parliament. His Servant of the People party, named for the television show that made Zelensky famous, will likely win more votes than any other. We'll be watching to see its margin of victory and what it reveals about the new president's opportunity to transform Ukraine's politics.

Mexicans' attitudes toward migrants – A new poll from The Washington Post and Mexico's Reforma newspaper finds that more than 60 percent of Mexicans say Central American migrants take jobs and benefits that should go to Mexicans. Nearly as many, 55 percent, support the deportation of migrants back across Mexico's southern border.

Rhino Bonds – The Zoological Society of London and Conservation Capital are running the sale of a $50 million bond to finance expansion of the endangered black rhino population. It's a test case for creation of a wildlife conservation debt market that could be used to protect species facing extinction.

What We're Ignoring:

A manmade Antarctic snowstorm – A report published in the journal Science Advances finds that if we had 12,000 wind turbines to power giant seawater pumps and snow cannons to spray trillions of tons of snow over western Antarctica, we might prevent the collapse of a giant ice sheet that threatens to submerge coastal mega-cities like New York and Shanghai. The study's authors devised this ludicrous proposal as a way to focus people's attention, rather than as a feasible project. But we're ignoring this idea because we don't see the value in another argument that leaves us feeling powerless to deal with an important problem.

"I think there are certain times where you have tectonic shifts and change always happens that way."

On the latest episode of 'That Made All the Difference,' Vincent Stanley, Director of Philosophy at Patagonia, shares his thoughts on the role we all have to play in bringing our communities and the environment back to health.

One of the biggest threats to 21st century international peace is invisible. It recognizes no borders and knows no rules. It can penetrate everything from the secrets of your government to the settings of your appliances. This is, of course, the threat of cyberattacks and cyberwarfare.

During the coronavirus pandemic, cyberattacks have surged, according to watchdogs. This isn't just Zoom-bombing or scams. It's also a wave of schemes, likely by national intelligence agencies, meant to steal information about the development and production of vaccines. Attacks on the World Health Organization soared five-fold early in the pandemic.

Why is the threat of cyberwarfare growing, and why isn't more being done to stop it?

Hacking is increasingly the business of nation-states. Not so long ago, hackers were mainly hooded freelancers sitting in their basements stealing credit card numbers. Now they are increasingly the employees of national intelligence services.

Why are countries investing more and more in the cyber game? For one thing, hacking is a cheap way to level the playing field with larger global rivals. For North Korea or Iran, you no longer need a powerful military in order to project power across the globe. You just need a laptop and a few good programmers. What's more, unlike missile launches or invasions, the targets can't always tell where a cyberattack has come from. Plausible deniability comes in handy, especially when attacking someone bigger than you.

Targets are getting fatter. As countries build out 5G networks, data flows will increase massively, as more than a billion more people move online over the next decade. The so-called "internet of things," the network in which everything from your watch to your (potentially self-driving) car to your refrigerator are being hooked up to the internet. (That said, huge gaps in internet access persist, as we wrote here.)

There are no rules. Conventional war has rules about whom you can and cannot attack, occupy, or imprison. They aren't always respected or enforced — but the cyber realm has very few rules, mainly because the world's major cyber powers don't want them. If you're Vladimir Putin, hacking has brought dividends that your flagging economy and mediocre military cannot. If you're the US, you're historically wary of any binding rules about the conduct of war. (If you're Gulliver, why tie yourself to the ground for the sake of Lilliput?) So, while various groups of countries have, under UN auspices, started to develop "norms" – they are not binding.

Unfortunately, it may take a catastrophe to create those rules. So far, the damage inflicted by hackers has mostly been economic. In 2017, the NotPetya virus, which targeted Ukraine, quickly spread around the globe, inflicting $10 billion worth of pain. It was, so far, the worst cyberattack in history.

But it's not hard to imagine a cyberattack on a hospital network, a power grid, or a dam that kills thousands of people and forces even more from their homes. How can those responsible be called to account? And what would it take to make future such attacks much less likely?

Will it take an event that inflicts that much human damage for governments and tech companies to sit down and hammer out cyber-rules of the road?

Malaysian political drama: Malaysia's (eternal) opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim says he finally has enough votes in parliament to be appointed prime minister, seven months after the coalition that was going to support him collapsed amid an internal revolt that also forced out 95-year-old Mahathir Mohamed as head of the government. Two years ago, Mahathir — who governed Malaysia from 1980 to 2003 — shocked the country by running in the 2018 election and defeating his former party UMNO, which had dominated Malaysian politics since independence in 1956. After winning, Mahathir agreed to hand over power to Anwar — a former protégé with whom he had a falling out in the late 1990s — but Mahathir's government didn't last long enough to do the swap. Will Anwar now realize his lifelong dream of becoming Malaysia's prime minister? Stay tuned for the next parliamentary session in November.

More Show less
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on Europe In 60 Seconds:


Why can't Europe agree on Belarus sanctions?


I think they can agree but the problem is that Cyprus has blocked. There's a veto right inside the European Union and they have blocked everything. I mean, everyone agrees, all of other Member States agrees that we should have had those sanctions in place. But the Cypriots have their own views. And then they are blackmailing, they are saying you have to sanction Turkey as well, at the same time. And most other states say there's no connection between the two. So, we do have somewhat of a constitutional crisis over foreign affairs inside the European Union. Distinctly not a good situation.

LIVE 11a - 12p ET TODAY: Will the global challenges of 2020 lead to more inclusive multilateralism in the future?

At 11a ET/8a PT/4p BST, our livestream panel, "Crisis Response & Recovery: Reimagining while Rebuilding," will discuss how government, companies, citizens and other organizations can partner to solve today's major crises.

Watch at: https://www.gzeromedia.com/unga/livestream

Governments can't tackle today's global challenges alone. Will 2020 be seen as a shaping moment for a more modern and inclusive multilateralism, or a retrenchment to "business as usual"?

Our panel includes:

  • Brad Smith, President, Microsoft
  • Ian Bremmer, President and Founder, Eurasia Group & GZERO Media
  • Jeh Johnson, Partner, Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison, LLP and former Secretary of Homeland Security.
  • John Frank, Vice President, UN Affairs at Microsoft
  • Susan Glasser, staff writer and Washington columnist, The New Yorker (moderator)

Special appearances by António Guterres, Christine Lagarde, and Trevor Noah.

More Show less

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's Newsletter: Signal