Will Trump’s impeachment trial be “fair”?

Will Trump’s impeachment trial be “fair”?

Donald Trump just became the third president in US history to be impeached.

In a vote along party lines, the House of Representatives on Wednesday approved impeachment on two counts: abuse of power, for Trump's efforts to pressure the Ukrainian government into investigating his political rival Joe Biden, and obstruction of Congress, for preventing key White House witnesses from testifying in the impeachment hearings.


Democrats say the move was a legitimate defense of the Constitution. Republicans say it's a sham attempt to remove a president against the will of the people. Trump, for his part, says it's a modern day Salem witch trial (the current mayor of Salem, for the record, disagrees.)

So what comes now?
The House will send the impeachment bill to the Senate, where Trump will be put on trial, probably in January. A small team of House Democrats will lead the prosecution, the Senate will act as a jury, and Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts will preside.

A two-thirds supermajority of votes would be needed to convict Trump of the impeachable offenses and remove him from office. Republicans control the Senate by a 53-47 majority, meaning that 20 GOP senators would have to turn against the president in order to oust him. With Trump's approval rating among Republican voters currently above 90 percent, that outcome is about as likely as a snowman winning the Dakar Rally.

Will it be "fair"?
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has already said that he's coordinating closely with the White House's defense team on how and when to hold the trial, and that he won't call any additional witnesses. Chief Justice Roberts could rule that McConnell has to, but precedent suggests that's unlikely.)

Democrats say this politicizes justice, and McConnell says that's exactly right: Impeachment has the structure of a criminal proceeding, but the Constitution intended this process to be political, not judicial. And since he's politically on the side of the president, that's how the cookie crumbles.

How does the public view impeachment right now?
In the latest polls, between 44 and 50 percent of respondents said Trump should be impeached and removed from office. Some of the surveys registered a slight decline in support for impeachment and removal over the past month. Regardless, this is just about as polarized an environment as you can imagine: half the country wants the president removed from office, and the other half doesn't. In that sense, it's like virtually every other question involving Donald Trump.

Will all this affect the 2020 election?
It's too early to say how impeachment will affect people's choices 11 months from now. Democrats hope that the impeachment shows they're willing to hold Trump accountable, and they'll look to draw on the impeachment revelations throughout the 2020 campaign. Trump, meanwhile, is confident that beating the rap will be the main story heading into the 2020 homestretch.

A more immediate question is whether the timing of the trial affects the field of Democrat contenders. As we wrote last week, Mitch McConnell has a delicious opportunity to mess with the primary campaign schedules of leading contenders Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and others, who have to be in Washington for the Senate trial rather than out shaking hands with voters in early voting states. But it's a move that could also backfire against Trump -- learn more here.

Yau Abdul Karim lives and works in Garin Mai Jalah, located in the Yobe State of northeastern Nigeria. Essential to his work raising cattle is reliable access to water, yet environmental degradation has led to fewer water sources, severely impacting communities like his that depend on livestock. In 2019, with the help of FAO, Eni installed a special solar-powered well in Yau's town that provides water during the day as well as light at night.

Watch Yau's story as he shows how his family and community enjoy life-enhancing access to both water and light.

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And I thought I'd talk a little bit today about the latest in Israel, Palestine. It's obviously been driving headlines all week. And of course, on social media, there's no topic that we all get along and agree with each other more than Israel, Palestine. It's an easy one to take on. Yeah, I know I'm completely full of crap on that. But I thought I would give you some sense of what I think is actually happening where we're going. So first point, massive fight, big conflict between Hamas in Gaza and the Israeli defense forces. Not only that, but also more violence and a lot of violence breaking out between Israeli Arabs and Israeli Jews. Extremists on both sides taking to the streets and fairly indiscriminate violence, in this case, worst since 2014.

More Show less

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's first minister, says another independence referendum for Scotland is now a matter of "when not if," and that after leaving the UK, Scotland will launch a bid to rejoin the EU. But there are formidable obstacles ahead.

Getting to a vote will force a complex game of chicken with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. If a majority of Scots then vote for independence — hardly a sure thing – the process of extricating their new country from the UK will make Brexit look easy. Next, come the challenges of EU accession. In other words, Scotland's journey down the rocky road ahead has only just begun.

More Show less

Cyber is a tool, and sometimes a weapon. Whether espionage for commercial gain or indiscriminate attacks on critical infrastructure, actions taken in cyber space affect you directly, potentially upending even the most mundane realities of everyday life.

Join GZERO Media and Microsoft for a live conversation on cyber challenges facing governments, companies, and citizens in a Munich Security Conference "Road to Munich" event on Tuesday, May 18.

More Show less

According to Delhi-based journalist Barkha Dutt, while the Indian government has finally started to mobilize in response to the COVID crisis, there's still a lot of denial about the severity of the ourbreak. "Our Health Minister, for instance, made a statement in the last 24 hours saying that India is better equipped to fight COVID in 2021 than in 2020. That's simply rubbish. We had India's Solicitor General telling the Supreme Court that there is no oxygen deficit as of now. That's simply not true." In an interview on GZERO World, Dutt tells Ian Bremmer that only the connection between fellow Indians, helping each other when the government cannot, has been a salve.

Watch the episode: India's COVID calamity

Listen: Ask national security experts how they view China today and they'll likely the use a term like "adversary" or "economic competitor." But what about "enemy?" How close is the world to all-out-war breaking out between United States and China? According to US Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.), who served as Supreme Allied Commander to NATO, those odds are higher than many would like to admit. In fact, Stavridis says, the US risks losing its military dominance in the coming years to China. And if push comes to shove in a military conflict, it's not entirely clear who would prevail. Admiral Stavridis discusses his bestselling new military thriller 2034 and makes the case for why his fictional depiction of a US-China war could easily become reality.

Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on Europe In 60 Seconds:

What's the issue with the letter in France talking about the "civil war"?

Well, I think it is part of the beginning of the French election campaign. We have some people in the military encouraged by the more right-wing forces, warning very much for the Muslim question. That's part of the upstart to the election campaign next year. More to come, I fear.

More Show less

When asked about where a US-China war may start, US Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.) doesn't hesitate: Taiwan. He suggests that China may believe the US is distracted by internal politics: "I think it would be a miscalculation on the part of the Chinese, but they may calculate that now is the moment." How would a move against Taiwan play out? Stavridis speculates how the Chinese military may plan to invade the island on the upcoming episode of GZERO World, which begins airing on US public television Friday, May 14. Check local listings.

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter, Signal

Beyond SolarWinds: Securing Cyberspace. Watch on Tuesday, May 18, 2021 10am PT/ 1pm ET

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal

Beyond SolarWinds: Securing Cyberspace | Watch on Tuesday, May 18, 2021 10am PT / 1 pm PT

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal