Podcast: One Saudi step too far with Nicholas Kristof

TRANSCRIPT: One Saudi step too far with Nicholas Kristof

Nick Kristof:

The idea that he would be tortured and murdered by the regime that he had worked for, that he kind of believed in, I mean that, I think, just to almost everybody, seemed impossible.

Ian Bremmer:

What happens if there are no consequences for something like, I don't know, murder? What if there were no global order to bring penalties? Would that make it easier for it to happen again? Hi, I'm Ian Bremmer and welcome to GZERO World. The killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at a Saudi consulate in Turkey is indeed a test of our GZERO World, one seeming absent of global leadership. That's why I started this show to help guide you through some uncertain times when there's no single world leader at the helm. So when it comes to killings, can foreign leaders wipe out their critics with impunity? I'll examine that question with a man who came to know Khashoggi personally over the past 15 years. Two-time Pulitzer Prize winner, Nick Kristof of the New York Times. But first, a word from the folks who help us keep the lights on.

"It was a tremendous mistake," those were the words of Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister when asked about the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi Arabian journalist, author, and contributed to the Washington Post. The point is Khashoggi was a critic of the Saudi government, a particularly well-known one. He walked into a Saudi consulate in Turkey, and now he's dead. After some delays and a few changing stories, the official line from the Kingdom is that his killing wasn't state sanctioned. "No, this was the work of a rogue agent," according to Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir's account with Fox News.

Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir:

The individuals who did this did this outside the scope of their authority. There obviously was a tremendous mistake made. And what compounded the mistake was the attempt to try to cover up, that is unacceptable in any government. These things unfortunately happen.

Ian Bremmer:

These things unfortunately happen? Okay, let's be clear, Khashoggi wasn't in a war zone and didn't happen to take a stray bullet, he walked into the Saudi consulate in the Istanbul. Let's imagine though it's possible he rubbed some people in the Saudi government the wrong way and they took matters into their own hands, which is the Saudi explanation. If you look at it, that is the only answer that really exonerates Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and yet it still poses some pretty big questions. If it were true, then what are we really talking about when it comes to Saudi power? Doesn't the Crown Prince have control of senior members of his own government? That hardly inspires confidence.

Now, let's go the other route, which seems more likely. What if they weren't rogue murders and instead acting on government orders? Will these men be sacrificed on the altar of global opinion? Again, it doesn't inspire much confidence in the regime. And this was supposed to be the Saudi moment, a changing economy brought to the cutting edge by the new Crown Prince. The thing is, Mohammed bin Salman is actually a reformer, just not in the way the West thinks about reforms. He has allowed liberalizing of Saudi society, women drivers. He's reigned in religious police. He's bringing women into the workplace. But he also doesn't like to be criticized and that will hurt him in the long term. The US, of course, will inevitably still do business with the Saudis, President Trump needs Saudi oil to stabilize global oil markets as sanctions with Iran kick in, arm sales and containing Iran remain top priorities on both sides. So don't expect a lot of change, but still the Crown Prince's reputation has been sullied, maybe irreparably.

President Ronald Reagan:

The friendship and cooperation between our governments and people, are precious jewels whose value we should never underestimate.

President Barack Obama:

It's great pleasure to welcome his majesty King Salman to the Oval Office.

President Donald Trump:

We have $450 billion, 110 billion of which is a military order, but this is equipment and various things ordered from Saudi Arabia.

Ian Bremmer:

And now for our interview, columnist Nick Kristof has called for an exploration of sanctions and an end to arm sales for the Saudi government in the wake of Khashoggi's death. He also knew him personally.

You have known Jamal Khashoggi for some 15 years now. Tell me about the man himself.

Nick Kristof:

He was, I'd say very low-key. He wasn't flamboyant at all. He wasn't a big dissident. I mean, he came across as originally kind of a bureaucrat, state bureaucrat, if you will, working in the system for Prince Turki originally. And in disgusting issues, you had this graying kind of boring guy who liked to talk about prospects for Arab modernization, Arab democracy. He was absolutely not a bomb thrower or somebody trying to create enormous disruptions. I do think that over time he became a little bit more eager to see democracy come to the Arab world, especially after Arab Spring.

Ian Bremmer:

Post Arab Spring.

Nick Kristof:

Yeah, I think Arab Spring really kind of awoke him to some degree.

Ian Bremmer:

Which he saw as a failure for his own country?

Nick Kristof:

Well, I think he saw it as a failure for the Arab world. I mean, except for Tunisia. But I think he saw-

Ian Bremmer:

But you would agree with that, by the way?

Nick Kristof:

Oh, absolutely. I think Jamal thought, and I think that it kind of put to the rest the idea that there's no interest in democracy in the Arab world. And I remember in Tahrir Square seeing this incredible outpouring of people, women as well as men, just in some cases risking their lives to get the freedom that they supposedly didn't want. And that left a very deep impression on Jamal. And it, I think saddened him that it didn't happen in Egypt, and especially that it seemed to leave no impression whatsoever on the Gulf.

Ian Bremmer:

And so what were his views on the Kingdom as we get closer to today?

Nick Kristof:

He was a reformer, but again, he kind of believed in the system. And so I think he believed in liberalization and gradual moves that would create space and personal space for descent, for popular participation. And he welcomed the idea of the Crown Prince, of letting people go to movie theaters, letting women drive. But I think he was really troubled by the authoritarian streak of MBS and what was happening to friends of his getting tossed in prison. And the fact that in the news media there, there was just no room for any independent thought.

Ian Bremmer:

Do you think he felt free to express his opinion without any backlash being here in the States?

Nick Kristof:

I think he felt largely free, but my guess, and other people would know this more is, no, he still wanted to work within the system. He still wanted to have an impact on Saudi decision makers. And I think that that probably restrained him to some degree. And he wanted to have influence, and I think that that probably made him bite his tongue a little bit.

Ian Bremmer:

Do you think that also made him feel more comfortable walking into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul? Did he feel like he still had some access?

Nick Kristof:

Yeah, I mean, what happened was just so crazy that conceivably, the worst case scenario, I think anybody might have thought is that he would've been taken back to Saudi Arabia as had happened to some other people at various points. But-

Ian Bremmer:

The Lebanese Prime Minister, for example.

Nick Kristof:

Well, the Lebanese Prime Minister got to Saudi Arabia on his own steam though. But people like Loujain al-Hathloul, the women's rights activist who was kidnapped in the UAE and then brought back.

Ian Bremmer:

Right.

Nick Kristof:

So that seemed to be the worst case scenario. And the idea that he would be tortured and murdered by the regime that he had worked for, that he kind of believed in that, I mean that, I think just to almost everybody seemed impossible. And so I don't think he was afraid of that outcome.

Ian Bremmer:

Where were you when you first heard that this happened?

Nick Kristof:

Well, so first of all, there were these reports that Jamal was missing, that he had gone-

Ian Bremmer:

He hadn't come out.

Nick Kristof:

Well, yeah, I mean the first reports were just that he was missing in Istanbul. And I remember reading that and thinking, "That's weird." And "Boy, the Saudis better not have had something to do with that." But then you at least thought, "Okay, he's going to reappear." And then it got more explicit that he went into the consulate and didn't come out. And then it just... I remember this really horrible sinking feeling, especially when the Turks started saying that they thought he was dead. And just thinking, how can it be that a journalist who came out of that system, who in many ways believed in that system, albeit corrected, should be murdered by it? And then the stuff that has come out since then about his fingers being cut off, about the torture, I find it grotesque. And the idea that we would then emerge as the Saudi spokesman and downplay behavior like that, I find also grotesque.

Ian Bremmer:

Given how surprised you were knowing who Jamal was, knowing what the regime has done in the past, do you find it credible that perhaps Mohammed bin Salman himself did not actually order the torture and killing? That it was indeed an operation gone wrong? Do you find that credible at all?

Nick Kristof:

I find it completely not credible. There may be elements of it, so I don't know whether that torture specifically, I don't know whether MBS said, cut off his fingers, this kind of thing-

Ian Bremmer:

But you think MBS had killed him?

Nick Kristof:

But I think that if he was killed, well, as he obviously was, I think MBS yes, ordered that killing.

Ian Bremmer:

Ordered that killing.

Nick Kristof:

I think there's no room in the Saudi system for somebody as prominent as Jamal to have been murdered without MBS ordering it. He is the ultimate hands-on guy, and the fact that an autopsy expert was sent with a group that they, it seems, had likewise arranged to have somebody with them who looked like it was a body double, so to speak, of Jamal, who could walk out wearing his clothes-

Ian Bremmer:

With his clothes on.

Nick Kristof:

... all these things make me think that this was planned. And in any case, even if that didn't exist, MBS, he controls things utterly, and I just don't think it's a remotely conceivable that he didn't know about this.

Ian Bremmer:

Why do you think he would miscalculate so badly to take a step like that? Or do you think maybe he didn't miscalculate, that he actually knew exactly what was going to happen?

Nick Kristof:

I think he miscalculated, but I mean, MBS has miscalculated every step of the way. He thought that a war in Yemen was going to be an easy win that would showcase his incredible military talents, that obviously did not work out. He thought that he'd confront Qatar and maybe topple the Qatari ruler, that obviously didn't work out. He thought he'd kidnap the Prime Minister of Lebanon and undermine Hezbollah, Hezbollah emerged stronger than ever. And so from my point of view, he's been a catastrophic ally, because he breaks everything he touches. And so I think here again, they just didn't anticipate the response. I hope that wasn't because our president was sending signals that journalists are enemies of the people, that one can body slam a reporter and celebrate this. I mean, hope that this wasn't in part a response to signals coming from an American president, but I think he did miscalculate. I suppose the counterargument is that he may still get away with it, and if so, it will have been a powerful signal sent to every Saudi around the world that you don't mess with this government.

Ian Bremmer:

The United States be an ally of Saudi Arabia, in your view?

Nick Kristof:

I think we need to engage countries, even if they're-

Ian Bremmer:

Should the US be an ally of Saudi Arabia in your view?

Nick Kristof:

I guess it depends what you mean by an ally, but I-

Ian Bremmer:

Like, should we say publicly that Saudi Arabia is an ally of the United States? I mean, that's a statement that we make about a lot of countries around the world. Should Saudi Arabia be included in that group, in your view?

Nick Kristof:

I'm ambivalent about that. I think that we should certainly try to distance ourselves from the Crown Prince. I think we should try to send signals to other members of the royal family that he is a disaster for the country. I think that we should cut off weapon sales for the time being, largely having to do with the war in Yemen. I think that if we want to get a negotiated outcome in Yemen, then the leverage we have is cutting off spare parts and weapons. I'd like to see some sanctions under the Magnitsky Act-

Ian Bremmer:

Which would hit those that were directly responsible for their activities?

Nick Kristof:

That's right. So right now, we don't have enough proof that that would lead to the Crown Prince, but I suspect that we may down the road. And I'd like to see expulsion of ambassadors from NATO countries. Since this happened in a NATO country, let's act together as NATO-

Ian Bremmer:

Because there are a lot of journalists that get killed. A lot of journalists get falsely imprisoned, actually more in Turkey than almost any country in the world. I think only China's number one over... Per capita, it's probably Turkey. Erdogan looks a little like a favored son as a consequence of all of this. Is this getting way too much attention?

Nick Kristof:

I don't think so because there is this larger question about the Saudi/US relationship and Yemen. Yemen truly is a incredibly important issue that we in the West have-

Ian Bremmer:

But no one's talking about Yemen [inaudible 00:16:13]-

Nick Kristof:

But it relates to this question about the Saudi/US relationship. And the UN calls the world's biggest humanitarian crisis, Yemen, eight million people on the verge of starvation because of Saudi conduct with American and British complicity. And that does relate to this larger question of the US/Saudi relations. So I'm hoping that what happened with Jamal is also a way of helping bring some more attention to Yemen, and especially bring about an end to starvation in Yemen.

Ian Bremmer:

What kind of an environment do we have for journalists today? How different is it than five years ago, 10 years ago? How does it affect you?

Nick Kristof:

Well, maybe it's a longer timeframe than that, but there's been a huge change in covering conflicts or troubled parts of the world. I mean, it used to be that I could go as a New York Times reporter and wade into a troubled part of the world and feel reasonably secure except by crossfire or hitting a landmine or something, but I wouldn't be a deliberate target. And that was really because everybody needed me. The rebels needed me to get their-

Ian Bremmer:

The story heard.

Nick Kristof:

Yeah, exactly. Well, now they have their own channels and they can monetize me by kidnapping me and trying to ransom me. If any are watching this, I should make the point that New York Times doesn't believe in paying ransom so you're better off kidnapping somebody else.

Ian Bremmer:

Not like me, by the way. Nick, I don't know where you're pointing that, but-

Nick Kristof:

European diplomat, [inaudible 00:17:58].

Ian Bremmer:

Yeah, exactly. For example. Nick Kristof suggests European diplomats should be at risk, that's the headline of this interview, yes.

Nick Kristof:

That won't go over terribly well in Europe, but that's really the big difference. The journalists have become targets in ways of a rebel group proving its extremism, its radicalism by executing a journalist or especially monetizing it and-

Ian Bremmer:

Have you felt that pressure personally when you've been in some of these pretty extreme conditions?

Nick Kristof:

Absolutely.

Ian Bremmer:

Give an example.

Nick Kristof:

Well, I remember in Sudan at one point in, I was in a village that the Janjaweed militia was approaching. They were clearly going to massacre this village too, and everybody who could leave was leaving. I was frantically interviewing the people who were stuck there. And I had my car ready to go and engine on, and my interpreter was desperate to get me out of there. And he finally said, "Look, if we miscalculate and they come, then they're just going to kill me. You, you have commercial value, they'll kidnap you." And I thought, "Okay, this A, isn't fair to him, but B, I don't really want to be monetized in that way." Even in Pakistan, I felt that nervousness that some local group is going to kidnap me.

Ian Bremmer:

Are you changing the way you think about those things now?

Nick Kristof:

This is quite a while ago, but I was in Congo during the Civil War there. I was in a plane crash, and then in trying to get out, I was chased by a rebel group for five days through Eastern Congo and got malaria in the middle of that. And at the end of that trip, my wife tried to talk to me and understand that I had responsibilities to her, to the kids, and that maybe I should be more careful. And I've really tried to be that.

Ian Bremmer:

So you mentioned Yemen as a story that until the Khashoggi case hadn't been getting anywhere near the attention that it probably merits. Aside from that, what do you think the big international story is out there that you'd really like to see American journalists pick up and run with?

Nick Kristof:

Well, I mean, South Sudan is another catastrophe. So there was a mortality study recently that 400,000 people have died in the Civil War in South Sudan, 400,000. And if you think in terms of number of deaths-

Ian Bremmer:

It's almost the Syrian war, right?

Nick Kristof:

Yes, it is. Yeah, that's right. And it's just gotten essentially zero coverage. And it also arguably is something close to genocide in terms of ethnic dimensions, and I think that where people are slaughtered because of the tribe they belong to, that's particularly horrible, and so I think that is a place we should cover more. I think we should be devoting more coverage to the risks of confrontation with Iran, and that's something that might spiral out of control. I'm worried in the Gulf there are a lot of ships and it'd be easy to have some incident that gets out of control.

That's right.

Ian Bremmer:

Now you're an opinion journalist.

Nick Kristof:

I am.

Ian Bremmer:

So what is the opinion that you hold that you wish more people would agree with you on?

Nick Kristof:

In the foreign space, I think that there is a view that has been widespread and perhaps is gaining traction, that we have to look out for our interests rather than our values. That there's always a great conflict there that values don't belong in a foreign policy. And I think that is fundamentally mistaken. I think that there are real tensions, and there can be trade-offs and very difficult decisions sometimes, but I think that those values should be part of the calculation, and as a result, they are going to be allegations of hypocrisy, often true, but I think that those values have to be part of the picture.

Ian Bremmer:

So you are a Canadian at heart basically/.

Nick Kristof:

Kind of, I am. And I do think that when we only... That interests are sometimes hard to calculate and that when we just look at our interests, we often actually reach misjudgments about what those are, that bringing values into the picture sometimes will let us keep a distance from deeply unpleasant governments that are so contrary to our values in ways that would've later been protective. And I think that MBS in Saudi Arabia is an example where we kind of held our nose and embraced a modernizing dictator because we thought it was going to be good for our oil prices and in ways that indeed have hurt our interests in the region and around the world.

Ian Bremmer:

Kristof, great talking to you, and we'll be kicking you out of the country shortly.

Nick Kristof:

All right. Okay, I'll look forward to that.

Ian Bremmer:

And now for something completely different, ladies and gentlemen, I've got your Puppet Regime.

Hi folks, we're introducing a new game show segment here called Hard Numbers. I'll pick a number, and our world leader contestants have to guess what that number is. This week we've got the triple threat of Donald Trump, Angela Merkel, and Vladimir Putin. The first number 716.

Speaker 7:

The people are saying, Ian, that's the number of millions of dollars owed by me for bankrupt properties in Atlantic City.

Ian Bremmer:

What the.... Did you just release your tax returns?

Speaker 8:

No. Trust me, the real number is much higher.

Speaker 9:

Das ist die nummer of times I have been mansplained to by politicians I later destroyed.

Ian Bremmer:

You are being modest, Angela.

Speaker 9:

Yeah, you see what I mean?

Ian Bremmer:

Fair, fair. Well, okay, the answer is $716 billion is the defense budget of the United States, which is, wait for it, larger than the next 11 countries combined.

Speaker 7:

Look, we should be spending more than the next 50 countries.

Ian Bremmer:

America first, indeed, Mr. President. Okay, the next number is 52.

Speaker 9:

The percent of Americans who can't name a single Supreme Court Justice.

Ian Bremmer:

That's the correct answer, but how do you know so much about what Americans know and don't know?

Speaker 7:

Look, the Democrats lost an election that frankly, they should have been able to win.

Ian Bremmer:

But Mr. President, Mr. President, what does that have to do with American knowledge of the Supreme Court?

Speaker 7:

Well, half of Americans can't name a Supreme Court Justice, so I got to name two.

Ian Bremmer:

A legacy indeed. Well, that's it for this edition of Hard Numbers.

Speaker 10:

Puppet Regime.

Ian Bremmer:

And that is our show this week. We'll be right back here next week. In the meantime, if you like what you've seen, check us out on gzeromedia.com. See you soon.