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Has the war in Ukraine changed Iran's calculus on getting nuclear weapons?
Not necessarily, says Ali Vaez, Iran program director at the International Crisis Group. Like the Ukrainians now, the Iranians know Iraq and Libya basically gave up their weapons programs and then got invaded — a sharp contrast to North Korea when Donald Trump was in the White House.
Tehran, he tells Ian Bremmer, is fully aware that once they go nuclear, the strategic balance of power becomes a game based on how many nukes you have, and that they may suffer a strike before they acquire the capability anyway.
Still, Vaez explains that Ukraine has changed things somewhat because the Russians have moved the goalposts by making their support for the deal contingent on lifting Western sanctions against Russia, which the Iranians resent because they too need sanctions removed.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Iran nuclear deal 2.0, or war?