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Hungary’s Orbán concedes election defeat

After 16 years in power, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has been decisively voted out, losing in a landslide to challenger Péter Magyar.

But this wasn’t a shift to the left. As Ian Bremmer explains in Quick Take, the election was driven by frustration over corruption, economic stagnation, and what many voters saw as a system benefiting Orbán and his inner circle, not the Hungarian people.

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The US economy has avoided the brunt of the Iran war...for now

As part of a larger conversation in the latest episode of GZERO World, Harvard economist and former IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath breaks down the economic impact of the Iran war—and why the US is relatively insulated.

So far, she says, the shock is modest compared to past crises. Global growth is expected to drop by about 0.3 percentage points—a fraction of the damage seen during the pandemic.

But the impact isn’t evenly felt. While rising energy prices are pushing inflation higher worldwide, the US economy is less exposed than most. Gopinath estimates the hit to US growth at just 0.1 to 0.15 percentage points, thanks in part to domestic energy production.

That doesn’t mean Americans are immune. Higher prices are still adding hundreds of dollars in costs for households. But compared to more energy-dependent economies, the US is better positioned. The takeaway: the Iran war is a global economic shock—but not a balanced one.

Graphic Truth: The human toll of the Iran war

Rome wasn’t built in a day, and neither was the long-term ceasefire deal that the US and Iran tried to clinch this weekend. Despite 21 hours of talks between the two sides in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad, Vice President JD Vance had to deliver the “bad news,” capping what has been a rough week for US President Donald Trump’s second-in-command.

“We were quite accommodating. The president told us, ‘You need to come here in good faith and make your best effort to get a deal,’” Vance said. “We did that, and unfortunately, we weren’t able to make any headway.”

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Hard Number: Canada’s Carney finally set for majority

Carney’s Liberal Party looks set to gain an outright majority for the first time since the prime minister took charge in March last year, as voters head to the polls today in three by-elections – special votes to fill these vacant seats in Parliament. Two of the ridings are in left-leaning areas of Toronto. If the Liberals win those, it will be enough for Carney to have a majority government, albeit a slender one.

Hungary’s Orbán ousted from power, Pope heads to Africa amid Trump spat, Iran war looms over DC bank meetings

The Orbán era is over in Hungary

In the end, it wasn’t even close: Péter Magyar’s Tisza party stormed to victory in yesterday’s Hungarian election, ousting Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power. The result sparked scenes of jubilation on the streets of Budapest. Tisza is set to win 138 of Hungary’s 199 parliamentary seats, enough to enact constitutional changes like restoring the independence of the judiciary and ending the system of patronage that critics have called corrupt. Orbán’s Fidesz party will have just 55 seats. The result is a major win for Europe and the European Union: Magyar could greenlight billions of euros of funds for Ukraine’s war effort, which Orbán had held up. Magyar, who will all-but certainly become PM, will have his work cut out. The country became the poorest of the EU’s 27 members last year, following years of inflation, falling real wages, and underinvestment in healthcare.

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How the Iran war is reshaping the global economy

The economic impact of the Iran war is already showing up in rising prices. Energy costs have surged, with oil and gas prices driving a sharp increase in inflation and pushing up the cost of everyday goods. But Harvard economist and former IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath says the bigger risk is what she calls “structural damage”—long-term economic shifts that don’t show up immediately but build over time.

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Rising energy prices, higher inflation, and growing economic uncertainty — a Harvard economist says the fallout from the Iran war is already being felt.

On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Harvard economist and former IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath to unpack how the conflict is rippling through the global economy. As oil and gas prices surge, inflation is climbing, adding new costs for households and businesses and putting pressure on growth worldwide.

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For 80 years, the US dollar has been the world's reserve currency. Its dominance was built on US economic strength, institutional trust, and the post-World War Two Bretton Woods system, which pegged global currencies to the dollar rather than gold. But today, the greenback is under pressure. The dollar shed about a tenth of its value in the first year of Trump's second term. Tariffs, White House pressure on the Federal Reserve, and rising debt have all shaken confidence.

Xi Jinping has made renminbi internationalization a top priority. Vladimir Putin has repeatedly called on BRICS nations to ditch the dollar. But for all the talk of de-dollarization, when uncertainty hits, the dollar is still what people reach for. Foreign investment in US assets actually climbed in the second half of 2025.

The reason: TINA, there is no alternative. Until another currency offers the depth, liquidity, and institutional backing of the dollar, the greenback isn't going anywhere. Trump's policies are accelerating efforts to diversify, but dethroning the dollar requires a replacement, and no one has one ready.

Is Orbán’s “illiberal democracy” set to end?

Hungarians will head to the polls on Sunday in an election that will be watched worldwide, as politicos of all stripes wait to see whether center-right opposition leader Péter Magyar can indeed oust 16-year incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The campaign has been marred by Russian interference, accusations of a plot to blow up a pipeline, and concerns about the integrity of the vote. Even US Vice President JD Vance got involved this week, stumping for Orbán in Budapest – the hard-right Fidesz leader has become something of an oracle for the MAGA movement, showing how one can deliver an anti-woke, anti-immigrant agenda in the modern era. The election also has tangible and immediate implications for Europe: Orbán has been building ties with Moscow – he even held up European Union funds for Ukraine amid its war with Russia – while Magyar’s Tisza Party is more aligned with Brussels. Polls suggest Orbán’s hopes of reelection are hanging by a thread.

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The ACI Europe, a regional airport trade group, is warning EU leaders that airports could soon face “systemic” jet fuel shortages while Iran maintains its grip over the Strait of Hormuz. Airlines also say they have enough fuel to get them through several weeks, but aren’t able to guarantee deliveries in May. This comes as Asian countries like Vietnam have already begun rationing jet fuel.

Think you know what's going on around the world? Here's your chance to prove it.

AI giant Anthropic is rolling out a new model, Mythos, but is limiting its access to only a group of 40 companies. Why?

  • A) Cybersecurity risks and potential misuse
  • B) Lack of investor interest
  • C) A shortage of data centers in Europe

Take the quiz to see if you guessed correctly!

Ivan Krastev tells Ian Bremmer that the Iran war has deepened a dangerous uncertainty across the continent: people don't know what President Trump wants to achieve, and after the "easy victory" in Venezuela, they fear where he'll turn next.

Poland is, Krastev notes, "probably one of the most pro-American places in Europe", and a recent Polish poll asked respondents to name the major threats to world peace. Russia came first. But in second and third place: Trump's United States and Israel. "This is new," Krastev says, "and this is a major development."

The fallout isn't just about public opinion. For Europe's new right and the parties that built their identities around alignment with Trump, the Iran war has created a disorienting moment. They had "the feeling that they're on the same page," Krastev says, "and now they're not sure."

Unregulated chemicals are entering the United States from China and being injected into Americans’ bloodstreams. No, not fentanyl. We’re talking about peptides, which are short chains of amino acids that regulate hormones and spur changes in the body. Their rise, often dubbed the “biohacking” boom, has been spurred by the success of the weight loss drug Ozempic and influencers peddling their experimental peptide stashes online. But at its core, it's a story about China’s advantage in pharmaceutical manufacturing, declining trust in American institutions, and a political culture that treats self-experimentation as freedom.

US customs records show that American imports of hormone and peptide compounds from China nearly doubled in 2025, climbing to $328 million in the first nine months of the year, compared to $164 million the year prior. They are normally injected using a needle and a syringe into the abdomen, thigh, or upper arm. They can also be bought everywhere from the online Chinese retailer Temu, telehealth clinics like Hims and Hers, directly from Chinese factories, to “peptide raves” in Silicon Valley. Their market spans ideologies, from affluent tech bros in San Francisco, to looksmaxxing influencers on social media, to supporters of the Make America Healthy (MAHA) movement.

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Can India’s Modi make inroads in unfriendly territory?

More than 50 million voters in India’s states of Assam and Kerala, along with the federally-administered territory of Puducherry, head to the polls today in regional elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will be hoping for a change of fortune in Kerala, a left-leaning southern state where it has never won. For the BJP’s opponents, the aim is to hold on to local power and continue to act as a check on Modi and his party’s dominance. These elections also mark the start of an electoral cycle, with West Bengal and Tamil Nadu – two more states that lean against the BJP – set to hold votes later this month. Results for all these contests are expected on May 4.

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