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Deadly earthquakes rock Venezuela, Iraq reportedly threatens OPEC-xit, Anthropic claims Chinese firm is stealing from its model
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Deadly earthquakes hit Venezuela
At least 164 people were killed and nearly 1,000 were left injured after two powerful earthquakes struck Venezuela on Wednesday evening. The 7.2 and 7.5-magnitude earthquakes were the strongest to hit the country in nearly six decades. A number of buildings collapsed, Caracas’ international airport was damaged, and many are believed to still be trapped under rubble. , The disaster’s effects will be exacerbated by Venezuela’s moribund economy, with a GDP that has shrunk by 80% since 2013. Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodríguez, who came into office after the US ousted strongman Nicolás Maduro from power in January, will likely look for help from Washington, which has eased sanctions in recent months. As a result, the earthquakes could create an opening for more direct US investment in Venezuela when it comes to immediate needs like drinking water infrastructure, as well as long-term reconstruction projects down the road.
Iraq threatens to follow the UAE out of OPEC, per report
Two months after the UAE exited the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Iraq is reportedly threatening to follow suit if the oil cartel doesn’t allow it to significantly increase production. The second-biggest oil producer in OPEC, Baghdad has been hit especially hard by the Iran war, with its government heavily reliant on crude exports for the bulk of its income. As such, it wants some extra cash by selling more oil. Before the war, its OPEC quota was about 4.4 million barrels of oil per day, but its production dropped below 1.5 million in May as ships couldn’t pass the Strait of Hormuz. Its new target: 7 million barrels per day. If Iraq does exit OPEC and increase production, the resulting extra supply would likely bring a short-term decrease in oil prices.
Is China’s Alibaba stealing Claude’s magic?
Anthropic, which makes the Claude AI model, says Chinese tech and commerce giant Alibaba has been bombarding Claude with queries as part of a campaign to illicitly train its own models on Claude’s outputs. Alibaba’s aim, it seems, was to achieve the capabilities of Claude’s Mythos model on the cheap. Mythos, you might remember, is so powerful that the US government earlier this month restricted access to it, fearing it could be accessed and used by the military intelligence services of adversary countries. The revelations come amid rising concerns in the intelligence community that the US’s lead over China and others in AI could be narrowing, and that China is seeking to steal American AI knowhow at an industrial scale.
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The next El Niño could be the strongest yet
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El Niño, the natural climate phenomenon that happens every three to seven years, is back. Researchers are warning that it has formed and could become the strongest on record. If that happens, the consequences for economies and for food security around the world could be severe.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) this week said the risk is particularly high in the Sahel, across Southern Africa, in South and Southeast Asia, and in Central America’s dry corridor and the Caribbean. In some agricultural and grazing areas, there’s a 50% chance of drought in the next few months. El Niño can also bring heavier rains and flooding to other regions, including the Horn of Africa and North America, damaging staple crops.
El Niño develops when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are 0.5º Celsius (0.9º Fahrenheit) higher for several months. Moderate El Niños could push those temperatures up 1º Celsius above the norm. But the biggest El Niño episodes of the past half-century – in 1982, 1997, and 2015 – have seen temperatures jump by 2º Celsius or more. Each of those caused major economic fallout, triggered harvest failures and livestock losses, and unleashed migration in search of food. Between 2015 and 2016 alone, El Niño impacted more than 60 million people and prompted $5 billion in humanitarian appeals across 23 countries.
Other studies have shown that the economic effects of El Niño can top trillions: one recent paper found that the 1997 to 1998 episode caused $5.7 trillion in global losses.
This year could be even more dramatic. Many forecasts say El Niño could increase by an unprecedented 3º Celsius (roughly 5º Fahrenheit).
Of course, forecasts aren’t destiny. There’s a chance El Niño could prove weaker than expected, and the world is better prepared than it was during previous episodes. Weather monitoring is more sophisticated, many governments hold strategic grain reserves, and no one is predicting a large-scale famine. Yet, if the predictions are right, El Niño could also strike at a particularly precarious moment.
More than 80% of the agricultural impacts of El Niño are expected to hit low- and middle-income countries. In the Sahel, food insecurity has deepened for five straight years, while conflicts are raging in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria, and have made it harder to reach vulnerable communities.
Meanwhile in India, El Niño could weaken the summer monsoon, putting rain-fed crops like rice and maize under pressure in a sector that employs 45% of the country’s workforce. Scientists say climate change is making El Niño more erratic, sometimes bringing unpredictable, short, intense bursts of rain and prolonged, damaging dry spells.
The wider geopolitical backdrop isn’t helping. The Iran war’s disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has made fertilizer more expensive and scarce as many farmers prepare to plant. At the same time, dramatic cuts to foreign aid over the last year and a half by the United States and others have weakened a longstanding safety net for poorer countries.
The world has weathered severe El Niños before, but this time, there may be less room for error.
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Record temperatures roil France
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An astonishing heat wave has swept across Europe this week, with France the hardest hit. The country recorded its hottest-ever day on Tuesday, only to break the record again on Wednesday. The extreme heat has led to tragedy: 40 people have drowned nationwide as they seek relief from the unbearable temperatures – many of them teenagers and swimming in unsupervised areas. The heat wave has ignited a political debate over the country’s low-use of air conditioning, as the longstanding stigma around it appears to be subsiding.
Preserving presidential history for America’s 250th
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As America approaches its 250th anniversary, Bank of America is investing in the legacy of leadership — committing $5M to the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library and conserving 110 presidential portraits at the Smithsonian National Portrait Gallery, so the history of leaders who defined our nation is preserved for generations to come.
How the world learned to stop worrying and love North Korea’s bombs
24 June
With everything going on in the Middle East, Ukraine, the United States, and elsewhere, you could be forgiven for not thinking much about North Korea lately. But while we’ve all been looking away, the “hermit kingdom” and its Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un are emerging from the G-Zero world in their strongest geostrategic position in decades.
North Korea’s economy grew 3.7% in 2024 according to the South Korean central bank – its fastest rate in eight years. Satellite imagery analysis by a South Korean think tank found that its nighttime lights – a proxy for economic activity – are glowing roughly three times brighter than they did five years ago, and not just in the capital, Pyongyang. It’s a far cry from 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic, food shortages, and sanctions were hammering North Korea, and Kim went on national television to apologize. “I am really sorry,” he said, weeping. “My efforts and sincerity have not been sufficient enough to rid our people of the difficulties in their life.”
Kim owes the turnaround to Russian President Vladimir Putin. When Russia’s war in Ukraine stalled, Kim offered him men and munitions. In return, North Korea got hard currency, energy, food, and military technology the country had spent decades trying to acquire illicitly (including help developing nuclear-powered submarines). Pyongyang netted billions of dollars from arms sales and gained valuable combat experience on drone warfare, air defense, and modern tactics. Perhaps more valuable than money or weapons, Russia also recognized North Korea as a de facto nuclear weapons state – a significant breach for a permanent Security Council member that had long pushed for denuclearization and backed UN sanctions.
It was the first crack in a 30-year containment wall … but not the last.
Russia’s growing influence with Pyongyang forced a reluctant China to counterbalance it. Beijing had long been North Korea’s principal patron, accounting for more than 90% of its trade. But Chinese President Xi Jinping had kept Kim at arm’s length for years – enforcing UN sanctions under US pressure, cutting bilateral trade by roughly half, and working to avoid the image that a close embrace of Kim would project. Beijing also worried that too visible a partnership risked accelerating nuclear ambitions in Japan and South Korea. Now that Russia had given him an outside option, however, Kim was no longer as dependent on China. And Beijing wouldn’t allow itself to be outbid in its own sphere of influence.
The first visible concession came when Xi invited Kim to China’s September 2025 “Victory Day” celebrations – a Kim’s first multilateral engagement since the Korean War era – and stood publicly alongside him and Putin, undermining years of work to prevent any appearance of an alliance with both autocrats. Xi continued the charm offensive by dispatching his premier to Pyongyang in October and Foreign Minister Wang Yi in April, before flying there himself in early June for a two-day state visit (the first since 2019) in what was his first foreign trip of 2026 – an honor Beijing reserves for its most important bilateral relationships.
(Xi had an additional motivation to make this trip: he sees Russia losing the war in Ukraine, and he’s worried about a cornered Putin becoming more risk-acceptant; engaging Kim directly offers more information, and perhaps a hedge, against that tail risk.)
That’s what leverage looks like in a G-Zero world. Kim has played Russia and China off each other, getting both to effectively accept North Korea as a nuclear state without conceding a thing to either. That acceptance was surely a precondition for Kim to show up in Beijing last September – the official communiqué from that summit and the readout from Xi’s June visit both omitted any reference to denuclearization, which was a first. He was so confident in his position that Kim unveiled a new uranium enrichment facility and announced plans to grow North Korea’s nuclear arsenal “at an exponential rate” days before the Chinese leader flew into Pyongyang. Beijing didn’t protest.
The big question is whether the United States will move in the same direction. And given who currently sits in the Oval Office, the answer is … maybe?
President Donald Trump sees Kim as the one that got away. His first term ended with unfinished business between them: 27 “love” letters, three friendly summits, a freeze-for-freeze (military exercises for missile tests) … but no grand bargain. The US leader wants to give it another shot. In his first bilateral with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung last year, the first thing Trump wanted to discuss was Kim. Trump has also asked Xi to arrange a meeting with the North Korean leader; Xi likely used the Pyongyang visit to gauge Kim’s appetite for one – potentially at China’s APEC gathering in November – and position Beijing as the indispensable intermediary.
Kim’s price for resuming talks with Washington remains dropping denuclearization as a precondition. Trump is contemplating paying it. After all, he doesn’t see recognition of North Korea’s nuclear status as much of a concession – similar to how he doesn’t see recognition of Crimea as Russian territory as anything other than just acknowledging what everyone already knows. His second administration’s National Security Strategy didn’t even mention North Korea as a threat. With Ukraine diplomacy stalled, the Iran war ending in disaster, and Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize obsession unabated, a summit with Kim is one of the few remaining foreign policy legacy plays on the table.
Whether such a summit could produce anything beyond the US recognition itself is a different question. Kim, who spent his early years in power desperately seeking a bargain with the United States, appears less interested in dealmaking now than he was in 2019. His position is stronger and he knows it. But having already secured de facto nuclear recognition from Russia and China, just getting Trump to follow suit – contra three decades of bipartisan US policy – would be the achievement of a lifetime.
The G-Zero is making the world’s most extreme authoritarian state a “normal” nation-state.
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Italy’s Meloni considers early election, Venezuela’s debt is much larger than first thought, EU talks to the Taliban
June 24, 2026
Elections on Giorgia’s mind
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is reportedly considering early elections, as her popularity dips amid a rising challenge from the far right. Italy must vote by the end of 2027, but Meloni is reportedly eyeing an April date. Meloni, a sharp-tongued right-wing populist, won in 2022 on promises to tighten immigration, promote conservative values, and check EU power. But in office she has tacked to the center, seeking accommodation with Brussels, backing Ukraine, and widening legal immigration even as she cracks down on asylum seekers. She also failed to push through a controversial judicial reform, which was struck down by popular referendum. All of that has cost her support broadly, but the most pressing challenge for her comes from her own backyard, where the ultra-far right National Future Party has surged in polls and poached at least eight MPs from Meloni’s coalition.
Caracas’s hidden debt bombshell looms over its economy
Venezuela’s interim government is set to announce that the country’s total debt exceeds $240 billion, nearly $100 billion more than previously estimated. Interim President Delcy Rodríguez, who assumed power after ousted strongman Nicolás Maduro was removed by the United States in January, hopes to negotiate a restructuring agreement with creditors before the end of the year. That includes the IMF, which resumed formal engagement with Venezuela in April after a seven-year freeze – though few are confident a deal could be reached before 2027. A successful restructuring would mark Venezuela’s return to international markets after nearly a decade of isolation. Since its historic peak in 2012, Venezuela’s economy has shrunk from $370 billion to $100 billion. If an agreement is reached, it would become the largest sovereign debt restructuring in history, surpassing even Greece’s 2012 deal.
European Union hosts Taliban for deportation talks
Officials from the Afghan Taliban met with EU officials in Brussels for the first time in person on Tuesday, as European officials seek to deport Afghans whose asylum claims were rejected. The trade bloc still doesn’t recognize the group as the leaders of Afghanistan, and had to grant one-day visas to Taliban officials to allow the visit to take place. But the desire for stricter immigration enforcement appears to trump the criticism of the Taliban’s severe restrictions on women’s freedoms in Afghanistan. The EU isn’t the only one: the US, India, and Pakistan have deported Afghans who sought asylum in those countries following the Taliban takeover of 2021. What does the Taliban get in return? It’s not clear, but it does boost their international legitimacy.
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In this episode of GZERO Europe, Carl Bildt examines the political consequences of Brexit 10 years after UK voters chose to leave the European Union.
Bildt says Brexit created years of uncertainty as Britain struggled to define its future relationship with Europe, asking whether it wanted to remain tied to the single market, customs union, or pursue a separate path. The result, he says, has been “negative for the UK primarily,” contributing to ongoing political instability.
While the UK is now seeking closer ties with the EU, Bildt says the path forward remains unclear. He argues that European leaders would welcome Britain back “in some sort of way,” but only if they are confident the UK is committed to rebuilding that relationship.
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The United Nations is warning sexual violence is being used as a “weapon of war” in Sudan against civilians. There’s been a litany of accusations of heinous crimes leveled against the two main fighting groups in Sudan’s civil war – and this report is just the latest. Cases of sexual violence occurred across both conflict and displacement routes – most attributed to the paramilitary Rapid Suppport Forces (RSF) fighters. In Darfur, the UN says widespread sexual violence may amount to crimes against humanity.
Listen: is it Czech or is it Mexican? Accordions. Tubas. Cymbals. Odes to the landscape and laments about treachery. The folk music of Mexico is weirdly similar to polkas and waltzes of Bohemia and Moravia. So similar, in fact, that one Instagram account bets you can’t tell the difference at all. With the two teams about to face each other in the World Cup, Czech it out – if you’re stumped, it’s all good/bien/dobře – just call it “Czexican” and hit the dance floor anyway. – Alex K
Look at how artists are transforming alleyways and city walls into tributes to the World Cup in Egypt, Brazil, Bangladesh, the US, Mexico, and more. – Natalie J.
Watch: Democratic Republic of the Congo vs. Uzbekistan in the World Cup this Saturday. No, this is not a classic football fixture. In fact, the two have never played each other in the sport. And this might be the only time they ever play one another in a World Cup. But if you want to see a pair of underdog nations – one famed for its lithium, the other for its uranium – going hell for leather on a football pitch as they seek to advance to the knockout stages, then this is the match to watch. And if you’re in New York City, head to Rego Park to watch alongside some Uzbek expats – that’s where I’ll be! – Zac
See: Jordyn Woods’ lucky Knicks championship bag on display at the Guggenheim. The designer and fiancé of Knicks star Karl-Anthony Towns went viral during the NBA finals for her orange handbag, which she claimed was the lucky charm that spurred the Knicks on during their playoff successes. The one game she didn’t have the bag? Game 3 of the finals, the only game the Knicks lost in the series (bags were not allowed in the stadium because of President Donald Trump’s attendance). It’s only on view for the next five days, so rush over! – Will
In this episode of “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer breaks down Europe’s political turmoil, from leadership crises in the UK and France to growing anti-establishment sentiment across the continent.
Ian argues that weak leaders, sluggish growth, and fiscal constraints are fueling voter frustration, but that doesn’t mean Europe is collapsing. “Europe is not falling apart,” he says, pointing to growing unity around defense, security, and shared policy goals.
Ian explains how Russia’s war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty around US support are pushing Europeans toward deeper integration, while Ukraine itself is emerging as a strategic asset through its military strength and innovation.
He also explores why Europe’s social model may prove more resilient than the US in an AI-driven future, where identity and belonging may become less tied to work and income.
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Gold bust along the Egypt-Sudan border
Egypt said on Monday it arrested more than 200 people along its southern border – most of them foreigners – as part of a crackdown on illegal gold mining and smuggling in the area. The border region is rich in mines: if you know the regional name “Nubia” you’re actually saying the ancient Egyptian word for gold: “nub.” These days illegal mining is rife, especially as war-wracked Sudan is unable to adequately police the industry on its side of the frontier. Gold accounts for some 70% of Sudan’s state revenue, but about half of all gold mined there leaves the country illegally. This has become a significant source of revenue for the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) battling the Sudanese army. Although gold prices have fallen since reaching an all time high in January, they are still higher than in any six-month period in history.
Denmark’s center-left PM bets on taking a hardline immigration stance
Denmark’s Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, is promoting an initiative for the European Union to establish deportation centers outside the bloc by next year. In an interview with the Financial Times on Monday, Frederiksen said the idea is for centers outside the EU to host rejected asylum seekers who can’t be deported to their home countries. Frederiksen, a social democrat, has made waves for taking a hardline stance on immigration in a bid to counter the rise of the far-right in Denmark and elsewhere in Europe. The PM said that the effort, co-led by Italy, has received the backing of 19 EU countries, arguing for the relaxation of human rights standards in order to address irregular immigration. Frederiksen’s broader political wager is that Europe’s center-left can further their agendas by making concessions on immigration.
Human labor driving soccer’s AI revolution
This year’s World Cup is the most technologically advanced yet, with AI‑assisted refereeing, sensor‑enabled balls, and AI coaching tools. But the path to this innovation has been far more human powered than you might think. Every system FIFA uses depends on data annotation workers – people with deep soccer knowledge and sometimes players themselves – who label thousands of clips to train the algorithms. Many of these workers are based in cities in the Philippines, Egypt, India, and Ukraine, where annotating matches has become a popular side job for lower‑league players seeking extra income. But it’s not just FIFA who uses these workers: sports betting platforms also hire data collectors to attend small, non-broadcasted matches so their AI-driven algorithms can update instantly. As investment and analytics reshape global soccer, this hidden labor force largely in non-Western countries will continue to power the sport’s high tech future.
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Ten years ago today, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union.
The helter-skelter in Westminster, where the Houses of Parliament are located, has been unceasing ever since. Just yesterday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced he will resign. His successor – likely Andy Burnham – will be the seventh PM in the last decade. For context: there were only five different leaders in the 37 years prior to the Brexit vote, dating back to the start of Margaret Thatcher’s premiership.
Brexit has directly contributed to the upheaval. Theresa May’s tenure was blighted by it, as she was unable to force through a vote that would formally take the UK out of the trade bloc before she exited office in 2019. Ever since the UK left in 2020, the economy has been stagnant. What’s more, net migration has increased over the last few years as the UK struggles to put a cap on non-EU movement – Brexiteers had argued that it would have the opposite effect.
As such, Burnham – assuming he enters office – may reverse some aspects of the UK’s exit from the EU.
“It’ll be interesting, in particular, whether he signals a willingness to rejoin the single market or the customs union, which will only be for after 2029,” said Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group’s managing director for Europe. Rahman believes that Burnham could “go further” than Starmer in terms of building links to the Union.
But Brexit is not the sole culprit of the UK’s problems. The country has faced several crises since the vote: the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – which sent energy prices soaring – and US President Donald Trump’s return to office, which has generated new uncertainty for Europe’s economic outlook and its defense.
So if Burnham succeeds Starmer, can he do any better? GZERO sat down with Rahman, an expert on UK politics, to get some insights on how the former Manchester mayor can learn from the outgoing PM’s mistakes. This interview is edited for length and clarity.
GZERO: Why did Starmer only last two years?
Rahman: Starmer’s inheritance was an incredibly challenging one. Everybody knew that the economic picture was a real challenge. Public services are on their knees, with no fiscal space. That general picture was compounded by a couple of things. First, the government didn’t really have a plan. Second, they made lots of mistakes. To the extent the government then delivered a plan, Starmer was way too cautious in light of the majority that he was sitting on. If you put that in the context of the picture he inherited, that explains the reason why it’s all fallen apart so quickly.
GZERO: Is Burnham going to be the next Prime Minister?
MR: I’d say so, 99.9%. There’s a possibility there’s a leadership contest. Labour MP Darren Jones is being pushed by many to run as a potential contestant in the race to force Burnham to articulate a plan for government and have his ideas subject to greater scrutiny. So, there may still be a contest. I don’t think that’s where this is going, but it’s possible. Even if there is a contest, I suspect Burnham will win. It will just mean he's in power in September, not mid-July.
GZERO: Which policies do you think Burnham will try to implement?
MR: The key areas of difference from Starmer will be a much greater focus on giving back power to the local level, given Burnham’s belief that local government is best equipped and most accountable at addressing the challenges that the country's regions are confronting. Also, electoral reform. I think they will do things on the domestic agenda, potentially be even more ambitious than investors and general commentators expect, potentially on the welfare bill. I think they’ll do more on social care, more on social housing, and he may even do more on infrastructure, for example, reinvigorating the high-speed rail network that Rishi Sunak killed when he was prime minister.
Where I think he will struggle is on fiscal policy. Where is he going to generate the cash to spend on some of these priorities, given the straitjackets of the fiscal rules and the Labour manifesto? The best Burnham can probably hope for is a virtuous circle in which he convinces investors of the UK’s growth prospects on the basis of a more compelling buy-side reform agenda. If there is a belief that growth will be stronger under a Burnham premiership, which may improve the outlook for public finances, it may create more fiscal space against these rules. That in turn enables him to spend more on some of these other political priorities he’s talking about.
GZERO: What can Burnham do to survive longer than two years?
MR: He’s got to have a narrative and political direction, and an ability to communicate with his party and with voters, so that he can take both of those constituencies, as well as investors, with him on this journey. That was obviously something Starmer was spectacularly unequipped to do. What is the goal of the government? What is its defining mission? Boris Johnson didn’t deliver much, but we knew what he stood for: leveling up and getting Brexit done. We knew what Tony Blair stood for: third-way politics. We don’t know what “Starmerism” really was, so Burnham’s challenge is going to be defining and articulating his goals to the country, and making sure all the key and relevant constituencies stay with him on this journey.
He will be better at that than Starmer because he is a better retail politician. I think he is better at engaging and communicating with the electorate in a way most politicians aren’t. You saw that reflected in the Makerfield result, where he won with a very large margin against Reform UK.
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The Democratic Republic of Congo’s Ebola outbreak has now recorded more cases in its first month than any previous Ebola outbreak in Africa, according to a senior World Health Organization official today. Its rapid spread across eastern Congo has African health officials warning that the epidemic could surpass the 2014 to 2016 outbreak, which killed over 11,000 people.