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Could US & Israeli elections reshape the Middle East?

President Trump promised to end wars and put America First. Eight months into the Iran war, what would success actually look like? And could elections in Israel and the US bring a change in direction—or another round of escalation?

On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks with Brett McGurk, former White House Middle East coordinator, about a region where military pressure is mounting and a diplomatic breakthrough remains elusive. “Are we heading towards a deal? I don’t think so,” McGurk says. He explains why he sees escalation as the more likely outcome after the US midterms, and why Iran’s nuclear program must remain central to any negotiation.

They also discuss the difficulty of containing the Houthis and what Israel’s election could change. McGurk argues that a new Israeli government would largely maintain the country’s security doctrine, but could take a significantly different approach to the West Bank.

For Washington, his warning is that disengagement carries its own costs. “The US has to stay diplomatically engaged,” McGurk says, or risk leaving openings that draw America back into even deeper conflicts.

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Middle East elections and escalation, with Brett McGurk

As Israel and the US head toward elections, the Middle East faces the prospect of further escalation. The Iran war has no clear endpoint, Houthi attacks are threatening US partners, and governments across the region are questioning whom they can count on.

On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer speaks with Brett McGurk, former White House Middle East coordinator, about Washington’s objectives and the difficult choices ahead. Drawing on his experience negotiating with Iran, McGurk explains why economic pressure needs to serve a realistic diplomatic goal. But he is skeptical that an agreement is close: “They will wait out the Americans.”

McGurk also considers what an Israeli government led by Gadi Eisenkot could change, particularly in the West Bank, and shares a personal encounter that shaped his understanding of the former military chief. He explains why Israel’s security doctrine after October 7 is likely to endure regardless of who becomes prime minister.

With American voters weary of foreign entanglements, McGurk argues that pulling back can create new dangers. The challenge is to maintain partnerships and diplomatic engagement without repeating the mistakes of past interventions.

What would Netanyahu's electoral defeat mean for the Middle East?

A new prime minister would not necessarily mean a new Israeli approach to Iran, Hezbollah, or Hamas. But in the West Bank, Brett McGurk sees the potential for a significant shift.

On GZERO World, the former White House Middle East coordinator tells Ian Bremmer that Israel’s security doctrine changed fundamentally after October 7. Regardless of who leads the next government, he argues, Israel “will never allow threats to gather again.”

The West Bank is a different question. McGurk says Netanyahu’s coalition has given far-right politicians considerable influence, while a government led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot could crack down on violent Israeli settlers. “I think you’ll see a significant change in the West Bank,” he says.

But a decisive result is far from guaranteed. McGurk also warns that another political deadlock could leave Netanyahu in place as caretaker prime minister and send Israel toward yet another election.

What is the “AI race” anyway?

Talk of the “AI race” is everywhere these days.

The competition to master this technology shapes everything from high-level tensions between the US and China to the local politics of where to build data centers.

And the stakes are high. Whoever masters AI will “rule the world,” according to Russian President Vladimir Putin. US President Donald Trump has been blunter: “Whoever wins AI, wins.”

But what exactly is that “race”? Who’s competing? What’s the prize? And, importantly, how do we know who’s winning?

To demystify it all, GZERO’s Alex Kliment sat down with Heather West, who leads Eurasia Group’s Geotechnology practice. Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity. Also, it features an informed cameo from Heather’s dog.

Alex: Heather, everyone talks about “the AI race.” What is it?

Heather: People talk about it as if it’s one thing, but there are really a lot of different races that people are running at once.

The United States wants to win the most capable model race, and they’re winning it.

China really wants to win the diffusion race to get more people around the world to use their models — and they’re winning it.

Europe wants to win the regulation race, making sure there are rules that protect rights around AI and technology — and they’re winning it.

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Oil hits six-month high

Ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have raised concerns about further disruptions to global energy supplies, especially after Saudi state oil company Aramco ordered the evacuation of its headquarters on Thursday. And the situation could get worse: The US and Israel are reportedly discussing renewed new strikes on Iran after the US midterms in November, which could trigger another round of Iranian retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping routes. That, in turn, could push oil prices even higher and inflict further damage on a global economy already grappling with soaring energy costs and mounting government debt.

Brazil’s presidential runoff, Serbia’s place-swapping election, Israel’s fresh West Bank crackdown

Brazil finally decides: Lula or Bolsonaro?

After a deeply polarizing campaign, Brazilian voters will finally go to the polls on Sunday to choose: left-wing incumbent Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, who has served three terms since 2002, or right-winger Flávio Bolsonaro, whose father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, was jailed for plotting a coup. Lula has campaigned as a longtime champion of Brazil’s working poor and argues that a victory by Bolsonaro, who has pledged to pardon his father, would undermine Brazil’s democracy. Bolsonaro, a hardline law and order candidate, has benefited from widespread discontent with Brazil’s sluggish economy, persistent street crime, and perceptions of judicial overreach. Each candidate has framed the race as existential for the country. Both have also faced questions about corruption. A win by Bolsonaro, who holds a narrow lead in the polls, would tilt Latin America’s largest economy closer to the US, though China would remain Brazil’s largest trade partner.

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Think you know what's going on around the world? Here's your chance to prove it


Kim Jong Un is NOT dead, and North Korea released recent photographs proving that. What was he doing in the photographs?

  • A) Looking at shoes
  • B) Lifting weights
  • C) Aiming an anti-aircraft gun at a family member

Take the quiz to see if you guessed correctly!

In this special edition of “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer reflects on the life and passing of his beloved dog, Moose.

“We hope and believe that 2026 will be the year of Latin America,” Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar proclaimed late last year.

So far, it looks like things are going his way. Even as Israel grows increasingly isolated on the world stage, there is one region where a whole swath of newly elected leaders can’t seem to get enough of the Jewish state: Latin America.

Last week, the government of newly elected Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella opened a new embassy in Jerusalem, joining a small group of countries that recognize the city as Israel’s capital. Argentina’s President Javier Milei, in power since 2023, is an enthusiastic supporter of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has visited Israel repeatedly, and even expressed interest in converting to Judaism. Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro visited Israel in 2019 and promised to move Brazil’s embassy to Jerusalem, although he ultimately opened a trade office instead. His son Flávio Bolsonaro, who is well positioned to win Brazil’s presidential runoff this weekend, has indicated he would move the embassy if elected.

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The dropoff deepens a trend that began in 2025, when overseas arrivals fell by 2.5%. The decline is particularly striking given that thousands of people came to the US for the World Cup earlier this year. The Trump administration has set an ambitious goal of attracting 100 million overseas visitors a year by 2030, but meeting that target would require a staggering jump from the roughly 70 million who visited last year. Some experts and tourism executives blame uncertainty and fear caused by the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement measures

Canada looks to Turkey for new partnership

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is in Turkey on Thursday for talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The visit is the first by a Canadian prime minister to Turkey. The two leaders promptly announced a new “strategic partnership” focused on expanding cooperation in defense and energy — Erdogan is particularly interested in Canadian support for nuclear power production. Although Carney, a liberal, and Erdogan, an Islamist, are not ideologically aligned, Canada’s PM is putting realism ahead of politics as he looks to strengthen ties with other middle powers wary of getting pushed around by the US and China. The visit is also part of Carney’s broader efforts to diversify Canada’s economic and security relationships and reduce the country’s long-standing dependence on an increasingly hostile United States.

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Online betting activity appears closely tied to the sports calendar, with first-time users rising during basketball and football seasons. Major sporting events, promotions, and growing interest in prediction markets may also boost participation.

See the Institute’s full analysis.

Hôtel de Ville, the city hall of Limoges in central France, was built by architect Charles-Alfred Leclerc in 1883. A historically protected building of Limousin granite and Poitou limestone, adorned by statues symbolizing the historical industries of Limoges atop its pediments, it has stood through three French Republics, two world wars, and a four-year-long occupation by Nazi Germany.

On Saturday night, Hôtel de Ville burned. By Sunday, only the husk of the building was left standing – arsonists set it ablaze amid riots that have rocked France for days. It encapsulates a France whose governing institutions are being pulled apart by its citizens – a story that carries far-reaching implications for the future of the country and the European Union, as far-right candidate Marine Le Pen leads presidential election polls, while bond markets lose confidence in France’s capacity to repay its debts.

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