That’s way above the UN target of 1.5 degrees that was set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. The UN says the world can still turn things around, but only through steep emissions cuts. It says governments could limit the overshoot to around 1.8 degrees by mid-century, but only if they slash emissions 18% over the next four years, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040. Are governments really willing to take such drastic steps now?
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has deployed 500 troops to Milan and tightened nationwide anti-rioting laws in an effort to quell unrest that has gripped the city since the weekend, with rioters smashing storefronts, looting businesses, and surrounding Milan’s iconic Duomo cathedral. For Meloni and her right-wing Brothers of Italy party, which swept to power in 2022 on a tough-on-crime and anti-immigration platform, the unrest — echoing larger riots in France — offers another opportunity to double down on those messages ahead of next year’s elections. And she has good reason to do so: Meloni faces growing competition from parties even further to her right, particularly from Roberto Vannacci and his National Future party, which has been gaining momentum after accusing Meloni of going soft on crime and immigration.
Burkina Faso’s parliament has unanimously voted to reinstate the death penalty, just eight years after the country’s previous, democratically elected government abolished it. A military coup ousted that government in 2022, and the ruling junta now argues that restoring capital punishment will help combat the al-Qaeda-affiliated Islamist insurgencies that have plagued the country for much of the past decade, killing over 25,000 people and displacing over two million. But the decision goes against a broader trend, particularly in Africa, where countries including Zimbabwe, Ghana, and the Central African Republic have abolished the death penalty in recent years. The move has also provoked fresh criticism of Burkina Faso’s military government, which human rights groups have accused of carrying out extrajudicial killings and cracking down on press freedom.
President Trump and PM Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly discussed that possibility earlier this month, and US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is in Israel today to coordinate Iran policy. In Israel, which sees Iran as an existential threat, neutering Tehran’s nuclear program and potentially toppling the regime are widely supported — even by Netanyahu’s opponents. Ahead of an upcoming election that he could well lose, Netanyahu is eager to resume hostilities, but Trump has so far stopped him. That’s because in the US, by contrast, the so-far inconclusive war is deeply unpopular. Trump’s Republicans are set to take a beating in the midterms, partly because the conflict has stoked inflation, a key voter concern. But with Trump keen to “finish the job,” analysts expect he’ll roll the dice again after the election. As it happens, another US carrier group, along with 10,000 troops, is now steaming back toward the Middle East. Its projected arrival date? Mid-November.
President Trump has changed course on Ukraine before. We all remember the Oval Office pyrotechnics (and the reconciliation). But his latest turn toward Russia could prove harder to reverse.
As Trump criticizes Volodymyr Zelensky, eases sanctions on Russia, and pursues a diesel deal with Vladimir Putin, Ukraine’s Republican supporters face a difficult choice: challenge the president or accept a policy they oppose.
Eurasia Group’s Clayton Allen explains why their leverage is limited, how the midterms could change the equation, and why even a Democratic victory wouldn’t guarantee a reversal.
Online betting activity appears closely tied to the sports calendar, with first-time users rising during basketball and football seasons. Major sporting events, promotions, and growing interest in prediction markets may also boost participation.
South Sudan is accusing neighboring Sudan of launching a drone strike that killed at least 73 people at a market in Abyei, a disputed, oil-rich region of roughly 4,000 square miles claimed by both countries. The attack has heightened tensions between the two states, which split in 2011 after South Sudan gained independence following decades of civil war. Why might Sudan attack the South? Since 2023, Sudan’s government has been locked in its own brutal civil war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) group. Khartoum has long accused South Sudan of helping move weapons to the RSF and of allowing RSF transports to refuel in Abyei, allegations that South Sudan denies. If South Sudan retaliates for Monday’s strike, it could open another front in Sudan’s already devastating war.
Romania’s parliament has finally formed a government, with independent Prime Minister Luca Niculescu presiding over a minority government. Since elections were held in May, President Nicușor Dan has failed three times to form a government. After months of deadlock, the parties chose compromise over snap elections that would likely have been won by the populist ultra-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians. But that’s not the end of the story. The current deal between the center-right National Liberal Party and the center-left Social Democrats gives both parties six months to negotiate a more permanent coalition. Romania, which has the EU’s largest budget deficit, has been plagued by political instability in recent years. Polarization has only deepened since the 2024 presidential election, when Romania’s Constitutional Court overturned far-right populist Călin Georgescu’s first-round victory amid claims of Russian interference.
President Abelardo de la Espriella threatened on Monday to unilaterally redraw his country’s maritime border with Nicaragua in order to expand Colombia’s territory. Under a 2012 International Court of Justice ruling that affirmed Colombia’s sovereignty over an archipelago off the Nicaraguan coast, Bogotá lost thousands of square miles of maritime territory. De la Espriella, a right-wing populist who won the presidency earlier this year, said the waters are Colombia’s “homeland” and that he will use force to defend them. Maritime sovereignty in the western Caribbean is not historically a hot-button issue in Colombia — unlike, say, Venezuela’s long-standing claims to the oil-rich Essequibo region of Guyana. But De la Espriella, who has a flair for the theatrical, may be testing the waters, as it were, to see whether it’s an issue that can stoke nationalist sentiment.
The minerals include yttrium oxide, which is crucial for manufacturing jet engines and semiconductors. Inside China, one kilogram costs a mere $9. But outside of China? $1,150. China’s rare earth export controls — imposed partly in response to new US tariffs — are now threatening global supply chains. Japan has warned that it could run out of some of these minerals by the end of the year.
Alberta is staying in Canada. After a long night of ballot counting, with some polling stations open until 10:30 pm due to long lines and late starts, voters in the oil-rich western Canadian province decisively rejected taking steps toward independence.
Seventy-six percent voted to remain part of Canada, while 24% voted to initiate a secession process. The results mirrored opinion polls taken throughout the campaign and dealt a serious blow to separatists, some of whom had predicted getting as much as 55% of the vote.
But the more important results may have come from the nine other questions on the referendum ballot that have received considerably less attention.
Tighter borders. More than half of Albertans voted in favor of new provincial powers to limit immigration. Similar shares supported restricting publicly funded services for non-citizens and non-residents, as well as imposing waiting periods or additional fees on temporary residents seeking health benefits. This last issue marks a major departure in a country where universal health care is a defining feature of national identity.
Election security. An even clearer majority of Albertans, roughly 63%, supported requiring voters to present a passport, birth certificate, or citizenship card to vote in provincial elections. Supporters of the measure — which echoes Donald Trump’s stalled Save America Act — argue that it would protect electoral integrity, while critics warn it could disenfranchise eligible citizens who lack ready access to the required documents.
Tensions with Ottawa incoming. Unlike the electoral rule changes, which the Albertan government can implement directly, the immigration proposals will need to be negotiated with the federal government in Ottawa.
That will fuel tensions between Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at a time when Carney is trying to present a united front in Canada’s ongoing tariff war with the US.
Immigration will be the wedge issue. Immigration anxieties are familiar in both America and Europe, where governments face growing public concern over housing shortages, strained social services, and their capacity to absorb and assimilate newcomers. But they create a particular dilemma for Alberta and, by extension, Canada.
Alberta’s powerful oil industry and natural resources are a critical component of Canada’s broader economic and geopolitical ambitions. Ottawa wants to advance major energy and infrastructure projects, including a new west coast oil pipeline that would expand Canada's access to overseas markets.
But Alberta’s oil-driven economy depends heavily on immigration and temporary workers to support production, construction, and infrastructure development. Carney even recently mused about increasing immigration levels to build new energy infrastructure. At the same time, Canada faces persistent labor shortages that more immigration could partly ease, a trade-off that Carney’s cabinet is already discussing.
Alberta’s referendum results, as well as the recent outcome of Quebec’s provincial election, which immigration skeptics won, show that voters in key regions of the country prefer to keep immigration numbers down.
What happens next? Alberta’s separatists have vowed to press ahead despite their defeat. Smith’s United Conservative party will hold a convention in November, and polls show just over half of its members support separation. However, the greater issue is how the federal government will navigate Alberta’s demands for greater autonomy on issues core to broader Canadian ambitions — and manage the possible political fallout.
Could a Democrat sweep of the House and Senate in the 2026 midterms actally help President Trump? If Democrats win back control of Congress, they'd have a bigger check on the president's agenda, but couldn't necessarily stop him from pushing it forward. So far, most of Trump's policy decisions have been made through executive authority, so a Democratic control of Congress isn't likely to change much. So what can voters expect if Dems win back both chambers?
Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report and Republican Strategist Liam Donovan join Ian Bremmer on GZERO World for a look at how a blue wave in the 2026 midterms could reshape Washington and set the stage for 2028. If Dems outperform on election night, it could counterintutiively hurt the party. A Democratic Congress would give Trump a convenient scapegoat, something he lacks right now. A big win could also mean Democrats simply dig into fighting Trump instead of finding a message that appeals to voters in 2028. Meanwhile, Republicans face their own questions about the party’s future. Would a major midterm defeat finally force a reckoning with Trump’s influence, or has MAGA full cemented itself as the new GOP identity?
Could China give Europe a shortcut in the AI race?
Europe has struggled to build models that compete with American and Chinese rivals. But Chinese models that companies can download, customize, and run themselves could offer another way forward—with more control over data and security.
Heather West explains why “good enough” AI could be Europe’s opportunity in the latest installment of The Debrief
This week, Microsoft launched the Velocity Prize, a global competition designed to give students ages 13–16 an opportunity to demonstrate their computational thinking, coding, and creative problem-solving skills in Minecraft. Supported by Microsoft’s Digital Crimes Unit, the competition encourages students to build digital skills and learn how to use technology responsibly while exploring future opportunities in cybersecurity.
By helping equip the next generation with the skills to navigate and shape the digital world, the Velocity Prize is helping build a pipeline of future problem-solvers who can contribute to a safer and more resilient digital ecosystem.
Read more here.
Social media has made news easier to access than ever, but as our Graphic Truth shows, people are increasingly concerned about the technology’s negative impacts on democracy.
Earlier this year, social media platforms overtook news apps and websites to become the most widely used source of online news, according to the Reuters 2026 Digital News Report.
And yet, new polling from Pew Research Center across 37 countries shows that the share of the public who believe social media is a “bad thing” for democracy has increased significantly since 2022: a median of 79% of respondents say social media has made it easier to manipulate people with false information, while 68% say it has made societies more polarized.
Views of social media’s impact on democracy are particularly negative in the US, the Netherlands, France, and Germany, where over 60% of the population say social media harms democracy. In the US, however, those views have remained unchanged since 2022, while opinions in other countries now appear to be converging with Americans’ souring views of the technology.
Meanwhile, in countries like Poland, Indonesia, and Greece, social media is still, on balance, seen as a good thing for democracy — although negative views have grown since 2022.
Generational divide. Young people are more likely to view social media positively. The gap is particularly wide in the UK, where 60% of those aged 18-34 think social media is good for democracy, compared with just 31% of those 50 and older. One reason may be that social media broadens access to political information and voices: a median of 60% of respondents across all ages say access to the internet and social media has improved representation of different views.
Laws that regulate content on social media are increasingly popular. In December 2025, Australia was the first country to ban people under 16 from social media, citing mounting evidence of its negative impacts on young people’s mental health. Other large economies, including France and the UK, have since followed suit.
However, even as countries slowly come to terms with the pros and cons of social media, they’re also having to confront the challenges posed by the next technological leap: 10% of people surveyed now use AI chatbots to get their news, up from 7% the previous year, Reuters found.
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer says President Donald Trump's approach to the war in Ukraine is putting more pressure on President Volodymyr Zelensky and raising concerns among European allies about the future of NATO.
Ian argues that Trump increasingly wants to end the war “under any circumstances,” placing more pressure on Ukraine than Russia while pursuing closer economic ties with President Vladimir Putin. Unlike former President Joe Biden, who prioritized coordination with European allies, Trump is pursuing engagement with Moscow largely unilaterally, including the prospect of renewed energy and investment ties.
The shift has left European leaders concerned that the US may not support them if Russia expands its hybrid attacks across the continent. Meanwhile, growing support for far-right, pro-Russian political forces in Europe could further weaken the region’s backing for Ukraine.
As Ukraine faces another difficult winter, Ian warns that uncertainty over continued US military and intelligence support could have serious consequences for Kyiv and the transatlantic alliance. He calls Trump’s suggestion that Ukraine bears greater responsibility for the war “downright Orwellian.”
Ongoing student protests in France descended into looting and riots over the weekend as more than half a million people took to the streets across the country. The unrest briefly spread to Portugal, Belgium, and Italy as well. Although the French protests began with demands for more education funding, the latest violence appeared to be led primarily by far-left extremists and gangs from the country’s immigrant-heavy suburbs. Conservative leaders across Europe seized on the chaos to push tougher immigration policies. Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar wrote, “Perhaps it is now clear to everyone why Hungary takes the toughest possible stance on migration,” while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Poland would “not pay for” other EU countries’ immigration missteps. Embattled French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the violence but didn’t outline clear steps to forestall further unrest. Anti-immigration right-winger Marine Le Pen, who leads in polls ahead of the 2027 presidential election, called him “powerless.”
It’s the first time a US president has openly backed a candidate in an Israeli election, but it’s unclear how much Trump’s eleventh-hour endorsement will help Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is polling neck and neck with his main rival, former Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. Trump remains generally popular in Israel, but recent polls show a sharp decline in the share of Israelis who believe he prioritizes their security. In addition, the two men have clashed over Netanyahu’s rejection of a Washington-brokered Gaza peace plan. Still, Netanyahu thanked Trump, calling him a “great friend.” The stakes are high for Netanyahu — although his military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran are broadly popular, the Israeli public wants an official probe of the security lapses on his watch that made the October 7 attacks possible. What’s more, if he falls from power, he will immediately lose immunity in his long-running corruption trial.
In recent days, US-Ukraine relations have reached their ugliest point since Donald Trump shouted down Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House in 2025. Trump, incensed that Ukraine continues retaliatory strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, has scrapped new US sanctions on Russia, called for regime change in Kyiv, and said he prefers negotiating with Vladimir Putin. According to Ukraine, the US even briefly stopped sharing certain intelligence, including information used to track incoming Russian airstrikes. This all puts immense pressure not only on Ukraine but also on Europe. The EU gives more support to Kyiv than the US does, but Zelensky has said that without Washington’s support, his country would quickly fall. Meanwhile, Putin has floated a Ukraine peace summit with Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The proposal would be a 21st century take on the Yalta Conference, when the US, UK, and USSR divided much of the globe at the end of World War II.
Being a warlord is a family affair! Pavel Prigozhin, 28, was once known for his ultra-luxurious lifestyle. But after his father was killed in a plane crash in 2023 — not at all coincidentally just two months after leading a short-lived mutiny against Russia’s military brass over the war in Ukraine — Pavel was tapped to lead Wagner. Since then, he has deftly maintained the group’s long-standing presence in Africa, particularly in the Central African Republic, where it is believed to have not only about 1,000 mercenaries actively advancing Kremlin interests, but also its own local beer brand.
