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November 18, 2025
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Brazil's COP30 is all about 'climate triage'
3h
At COP30–the world's largest climate conference–in Brazil, the conversation isn't about preventing the worst of climate change, but stopping the bleeding.
That's what Eurasia Group's Shari Friedman is hearing on the ground, but it's a message that the United Staes is ignoring, given the Trump administration's refusal to send a delegation to the conference for the first time in 30 years.
Shari Friedman:
Instead of getting 198 countries, well, 197 without the United States, to move together on collective action, this COP has broken things out into smaller coalitions. These coalitions are organized around specific action items, like forestry or reducing fossil fuels or carbon markets. It's like moving from multilateralism into minilateralism. And outside of the negotiating rooms is a lot of participation from sub-national, state, and local governments. And this is particularly important for the United States who, for the first time since the beginning of COPs, has not sent a delegation.
So will this minilateralism work? In some cases, these initiatives will get traction. They're laying down the framework for collaboration on very important initiatives. And more importantly, Brazil is avoiding a breakdown of these talks. But when you hear about the impact to your economy, to the asthmatic kids in the local school, to your economy that might be based on agriculture, then the impacts become real. And these are the conversations that the sub-national governments bring to the conversations in the hallway and on the panels. This COP may not achieve the results that were originally intended, but given the hand it was dealt, Brazil made a key pivot that will at least keep the conversation going and, at best, may create some real action.
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Tools and Weapons – In Conversation with Ted Sarandos
5h
In this episode of Tools and Weapons, Microsoft Vice Chair and President Brad Smith sits down with Ted Sarandos to discuss how bold leadership and a culture of innovation keep Netflix ahead, not just as a media company, but as a force shaping both industries and audiences. Ted shares how intuition and data combine to turn daring ideas into practical solutions, from scaling storytelling across 190 countries to relentlessly creating content that gets under the skin of viewers and makes them feel deeply connected to the stories they watch.
Subscribe and find new episodes monthly, wherever you listen to podcasts.
What We’re Watching: UN backs US plan for Gaza, Trump to sell fighter jets to Saudi, Zelensky seeks funds with money well running dry
7h
UN Security council approves Trump plan for Gaza
The resolution lends international legitimacy to a multi-national peacekeeping force and US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace. Not everyone loves it. Russia and China abstained, saying the resolution gives too much leeway to the US to shape Gaza’s future. Israel, meanwhile, objected to language gesturing towards a possible future Palestinian state. Hamas rejected the resolution outright and said it refuses to disarm. That’s still the hard reality on the ground: how many countries, UN resolution or not, will be willing to send their troops into a firefight with Hamas?
Trump says he’ll sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia as crown prince arrives
Ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s visit to the White House today, Trump announced Monday that he would sell F-35 fighter planes to the Gulf state. If fully approved, Saudi Arabia would be only the second country in the Middle East – after Israel – to successfully purchase these jets. Several other deals are set to be announced, too, including on civilian nuclear infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and even hotels, bringing the two oil-producing states closer together. Do these deals remove the incentives for Saudi to join the Abraham Accords? Not necessarily – they still would love access to Israeli tech – but it does mean they’re in less of a rush.
Ukraine is on the hunt for more funds and peace talks
Ukraine desperately needs more funds, and Europe is at an impasse on how to refill its coffers. Belgium blocked a loan plan that would use the $160 billion of Russia’s central bank assets to fund Ukraine, fearing it could be on the hook if Russia demanded its money back or retaliated against Euroclear, the Belgian central securities depository where the funds are held. While the EU is looking for ways to allay Brussels’s worries, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is turning to Spain and Turkey for funds and peace deals: Madrid announced a $1.16-billion aid package after meeting with Zelensky, who is now heading to Turkey, where he will try to “reinvigorate” peace talks with Russia.Keep reading...Show less
Walmart's $350 billion commitment to American jobs
7h
Walmart’s $350 billion commitment to American manufacturing means two-thirds of the products we buy come straight from our backyard to yours. From New Jersey hot sauce to grills made in Tennessee, Walmart is stocking the shelves with products rooted in local communities. The impact? Over 750,000 American jobs - putting more people to work and keeping communities strong.
Learn more here.
Canada’s government survives budget vote
7h
Canada’s six-month old minority government survived a de facto confidence vote on its first budget yesterday, avoiding the possibility of a Christmas election. Carney now has a mandate to run the second-highest deficit in Canadian history, at CA$78.3 billion, in order to implement wide-ranging industrial policy that includes infrastructure, resource development, and defense. It’s a blow for the opposition parties, most notably the Conservatives, whose leader Pierre Poilievre is facing a leadership review vote by his party at its annual convention in January.
What will the budget mean for Canada? Over the next five years, the government will invest CA$115 billion in infrastructure spending, including electricity-grid upgrades and high-speed rail, as well as in major projects, including port infrastructure, LNG plants, and to support critical minerals development projects that could challenge China’s dominance in the sector. It will spend CA$25 billion on housing, a major election issue, as well as an extra CA$81.8 billion on defense. A “Buy Canadian” procurement regime will steer federal contracts toward domestic suppliers for all these engagements.
But the plan comes with an average CA$64.3 billion annual deficit for the next four years, double what had been projected by the previous government. According to the Fitch ratings agency, Canada’s general government-debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 91.8% in 2026 and 98.5% in 2027, compared with 88.6% in 2024 and nearly double its AA rating median of 49.6%. To counter the fiscal pressure, the budget promises to cut 10% of public service jobs to balance the government’s operating expenditures, but capital spending will still have Ottawa in the red.
Those factors made the budget unpalatable to both the right-wing Conservatives and the left-wing New Democrats while two other smaller parties, the Bloc Quebecois and the Greens, refused to support it due to its failure to increase Old Age security payments and its removal of the federal emissions cap on Canada’s oil and gas industry.
So then how did the budget pass? Carney’s government was three seats shy of a majority when the bill was introduced on Nov. 4. That same day, however, a Conservative MP, Chris d’Entremont, crossed the floor to the Liberals, and a day later, another Conservative, Matt Jeneroux, announced he would resign his seat in the spring, ostensibly for family reasons, amid rumours that he was also considering joining the government.
That left Carney still in need of two crucial votes, or a combination of votes and abstentions. He got the support of Elisabeth May, leader of the Green Party, in exchange for a promise to meet Canada’s climate targets in the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030, though it is not clear how that will be achieved with the new energy investments in the budget. Four opposition MPs then abstained, two each from the Conservatives (Jeneroux, and another with serious health issues) and the New Democrats (one whose local mayors and Indigenous leaders did not want an election, and another who saw benefits in the budget for her riding). This allowed the budget to pass by a vote of 170 to 168.
Where does this leave the opposition? The drama has weakened Conservative leader Poilievre. Many MPs were already unhappy with the party’s election defeat in April, blaming Poilievre for failing to pivot to the issue of opposing US President Donald Trump. The Conservative leader also lost his own seat and had to win a seat in a by-election in order to return to Parliament in September.
But the biggest problem in the Conservative Party is governance. In the wake of the budget floor crossing, Poilievre and his advisors reportedly threatened MPs to prevent further defections, leading one to liken their style to that of “the Sopranos”. This could spell trouble for Poilievre at an upcoming Conservative leadership review in January, required when the party loses an election: a score under 80% could severely undermine his ability to remain leader.
At the other end of the political spectrum, the NDP are fighting for relevance after the 2025 election reduced them to seven seats and saw their leader resign. The party is voting to choose a new leader in March 2026, making the prospect of an election now without a permanent leader an unappealing prospect. However, the decision by two members to abstain revives bitter memories of the party’s deal to prop up the previous Liberal government, which angered many members and became a factor in the New Democrats’ defeat.
How stable is the government?
With the budget passed, the Liberals don’t need to worry about another confidence vote until the fall of 2026. But nothing prevents the government from going to the polls at any time, if it thinks it could be to its advantage. The longest a government can stay in power in Canada is five years, but the average lifespan of a government without a locked-in majority of Parliament is about two years. The timing of the next election could hinge on many factors, including striking a trade deal with Trump, the state of the Canadian economy, and the strength – or weakness - of opposition leaders.
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650,000: Roughly 650,000 Chinese tourists visited Japan in September, but those levels are under threat amid a diplomatic rift between the two countries. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested that her country would intervene if China attacks Taiwan, prompting Beijing to cancel tour groups to Japan and ban employees of state-owned enterprises from traveling there.
2: Two Ukrainian men, who are believed to have been working with Russia, have been identified as the culprits behind the rail sabotage attacks in Poland over the weekend. The men are believed to have been recruited by Russian intelligence.
18: A Georgian man who hatched a plan to feed poisoned candy to Jewish children in New York City pleaded guilty on Monday to soliciting hate crimes. Prosecutors will seek an 18-year jail sentence. The man led a Russian & Ukrainian neo-Nazi group that has sought to sow violence worldwide.
2,000: The South African government announced that it will block the arrival of any further flights of Palestinians after hundreds arrived by air in recent weeks. Passengers said they paid $2,000 per ticket to an aid agency offering them a route out of the country, but South African Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola denounced the flights as part of “a broader agenda to remove Palestinians from Palestine.”
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New York Times financial columnist Andrew Ross Sorkin warns that many of today’s top business leaders see economic trouble ahead for global markets—but aren’t willing to talk about it publicly.
“Most CEOs are really unwilling to say anything,” he tells Ian Bremmer. “They'll talk to you privately, absolutely. But publicly, unless they're going to be in praise of what's ever happening in Washington… they are not willing to raise their hand and say, ‘this is a problem."
Sorkin points to fear—both political and reputational—as a key reason why tech and financial leaders stay silent. “If I raise my hand now, I may not have a hand,” he says. “Should I raise it now? Should I raise it later? And will there be a later?”
As economic uncertainty grows, he questions whether the public can count on the private sector to lead. “If we ever get to a moment where there is a crisis… are there going to be leaders willing to stand up and explain what needs to happen?”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
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Could Trump have handled the Epstein files any worse? Ian Bremmer says the president came close, first opposing the release, then reversing course once it was clear he was losing Republican support in Congress.
“When they’re running you out of town, get in front of the crowd and make it look like you’re leading the parade,” Ian says of Trump’s Sunday-night flip.
Now Republicans can safely vote to release what’s legally permissible, while Trump’s DOJ delays disclosures by launching new investigations into Democrats named in the files.
It caps a rough stretch for Trump: election losses in multiple states, slipping poll numbers, and public feuds with longtime allies. But when it comes to the Epstein documents themselves, Ian is clear: they will likely contain embarrassing details for Trump, but he does not expect they will show illegal involvement, or the Biden administration would have already acted.
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What We’re Watching: Anti-graft protests resurface in the Philippines, Polish railway hit, Trump flips on Epstein files vote
November 17, 2025
Anti-graft protests restart in the Philippines, with help of a church
More than 200,000 people took to the streets of Manila, the Philippine capital, on Monday to protest against suspected corruption in flood-control projects. A day prior, a protestant megachurch organized a rally in the Catholic-majority country of 114 million people. These aren’t the first anti-graft demonstrations in the Southeast Asian nation this fall: there were violent protests in September after a government audit showed that the government had spent billions of dollars over the last few years on substandard or non-existent projects. A pair of typhoons also ripped through the country in recent weeks, possibly adding more fuel to the fire. Protest leaders have planned another rally later this month.
Polish railway attacked
In Poland, an explosion damaged a train line that connects Warsaw to Ukraine. The line has been used to transport aid and weapons to Ukraine, and while the investigation is ongoing, Poland’s government has said that it was a “highly probable” act of sabotage by Russia. Russia has targeted Poland for being an aid hub for Ukraine – seemingly carrying out cyber attacks, arson, and other acts of sabotage since the start of the war. If Poland uncovers the attack was carried out by Moscow, it will mark an escalation of the conflict.
Trump does U-turn on Epstein files
After piling pressure on lawmakers to halt the release of the US Justice Department files on the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, President Donald Trump reversed course and said Congress should release the files. Trump said he had “nothing to hide.” It was a remarkable about-face, and showed that congressional Republicans can still press the president – it has often been the other way around since the former real estate mogul came to Washington. GOP lawmakers will hope the vote reassures voters – including the MAGA base – ahead of next year’s midterms that they are serious about investigating the Epstein case. There are still doubts over whether the bill will come to pass: The House will bring it up this week, but it remains an open question whether the Senate votes on it.Read NowShow less
Hard Numbers: Bangladesh’s ex-PM sentenced to death, Foreign student enrollment in US plummets, Australian schools shut over asbestos, & more
November 17, 2025
1,400: Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s ousted prime minister, was sentenced to death on Monday for her crackdown on student-led protests last year. While Hasina is currently safely living in exile in India, the decision was celebrated by the families of the 1,400 people the UN estimates were killed during the uprisings.
17%: The number of international students enrolling in American universities fell 17% this fall. The Trump administration has tried to limit the amount of foreign students that come to US schools, and has revoked visas of thousands of foreign students – and even arrested others – who have expressed views that are critical of the US or its allies.
70: The Australian Capital Territory government shut 70 schools in the state on Monday over fears that a colored play sand contained asbestos. Schools in other states also shut. Asbestos contractors are working to clear the schools.
51%: Hamas’ popularity in Gaza rose to 51%, per an October poll from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, up eight points from a prior survey in May. Security appears to be the main reason for this rise, as Gazans have credited the group with cutting crime and looting. However, Hamas’ rising popularity may hurt US-led efforts to disarm the militant group.
30%: No candidate received a majority in Chile’s elections on Sunday, but right-wing José Antonio Kast is the favorite to win in a run-off in December against Communist party candidate Jeannette Jara. While Jara won slightly more of the vote – 26% compared to Kast’s 24% – the other right-wing candidates took 30% of the vote, signaling that the electorate is primed for a rightward shift.Read NowShow less
For the first time in seven years, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is returning to Washington, DC, this week. While crude oil has traditionally pulled the two countries close together, it is now the great power-chess game between the US and China that is making them join forces.
MBS, as the de-facto Saudi leader is known, and US President Donald Trump have much to discuss when it comes to peace in the Middle East. The chances of Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel by joining the Abraham Accords are slim. Nonetheless, defense agreements will be on the table, as Saudi Arabia seeks to bolster its protections in what has been a tumultuous year in the region.
The US-Saudi relationship has come full circle since the crown prince’s last visit in 2018. Since then, there was the killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi – reportedly sanctioned by the crown prince – at a Saudi consulate in Turkey, which created major tensions. Those were exacerbated after Riyadh got upset with Washington when it refused to respond to the 2019 Houthi attack on Saudi oil facilities. Then, during the 2020 campaign, Joe Biden suggested Saudi Arabia should be a “pariah.” Biden then sought to ease tensions in 2022, as he wanted Riyadh to pump more oil to alleviate high inflation rates. And now the AI race between the US and China has pushed Riyadh and Washington closer together.
“[Khashoggi’s death] hung like a pall over MBS reputation in the United States,” Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Initiative in Washington, told GZERO. “Time has worn away the sting a little bit.”
The Middle East has also changed dramatically over the past seven years. Israel was locked in a brutal war with Hamas for the past two years, with a fragile ceasefire keeping the peace for now. More Arab nations are concerned about the conflict spilling over, too, especially after Israel bombed Qatar in a failed bid to kill Hamas leaders. Meanwhile, the influence of Saudi’s top enemy, Iran, has diminished, as its proxies in the region – the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza – have all been hobbled or even removed.
“Iran is no longer the strategic threat that it was seven years ago,” Ibish said. “[But] there is still this need on the part of Saudi Arabia for American security guarantees.”
So what will Trump and bin Salman discuss? First and foremost for the crown prince will be defense. There are two aspects to this: firstly, Saudi wants a defense agreement akin to what the US signed with Qatar, ensuring that the US will defend the Gulf state in case of attack. Secondly, the Saudis want to buy F-35 planes from the US – Israel is the only Middle East country that has successfully negotiated and executed a purchase agreement of F-35s.
“The US public and US government and Trump have been a little bit more critical of Israel,” Alia Awadallah, who was a Pentagon official during Biden’s term in office, told GZERO, suggesting that the US may be willing to sell to a country other than Israel. “[Saudi Arabia] will be trying to assess whether it’s actually realistic to get that type of sale through both the White House, but also through Congress, which would have to approve it.”
The US is sure to bring up something that has layed tantalizingly out of reach: the Abraham Accords. Trump is reportedly still pressing MBS to recognize Israel and join the Accords, arguing that the peace he successfully brokered in Gaza should be enough to prompt Riyadh to do so. But the crown prince has repeatedly said that he wouldn’t do this until Israel recognizes a Palestinian state, so the chances of him signing the accords on this trip are close to null.
“At a minimum, this requires phase two of the Gaza ceasefire being implemented, and Israeli assurances regarding the Palestinian right of self determination,” said Eurasia Group’s Middle East Director Firas Maksad. “And we’re not there yet.”
If there’s no agreement on the Accords, there’s likely to be more on artificial intelligence. It is this area – rather than oil – that is pushing the two countries closer together, per Maksad. Trump’s visit to Riyadh in May was all about AI, with Saudi firms pledging billions of dollars in investments. In return, Riyadh wants access to items like Nvidia’s AI chips for its data centers. Meanwhile the US wants to see those incoming investments, while ensuring that Saudi secures rights to critical minerals in Africa, grants US access to them, and blocks China from getting them. This trip will be a chance to firm up these AI ties.
“Although the headlines continue to be animated by the prospect of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia… that is the wrong lens to be looking at things,” said Maksad. “This [US-Saudi] relationship is increasingly shaped by great power competitions, particularly US-China dynamics, rather than anything specific to the region and the Arab-Israeli conflict.”
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Behind every scam lies a story — and within every story, a critical lesson. Anatomy of a Scam, takes you inside the world of modern fraud — from investment schemes to impersonation and romance scams. You'll meet the investigators tracking down bad actors and learn about the innovative work being done across the payments ecosystem to protect consumers and businesses alike.
Watch the first episode of Mastercard's five-part documentary, 'Anatomy of a Scam,' here.
Could another financial crash be looming—and would we even see it coming? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with New York Times journalist and CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin to explore lessons from the Great Depression and the risks hiding in today’s economy. Sorkin’s new book, 1929: The Story of the Greatest Crash in American History, chronicles not just the initial collapse of the stock market, but the string of policy failures that followed—turning a crash into a crisis that scarred a generation.
“We're not going to have another 1929,” Sorkin says, “but I think it's very possible. Actually, I would argue it's almost impossible for us not to have another 1999.” He sees eerie parallels between the past and the present: massive speculative investments, surging inequality, and a public increasingly disconnected from financial realities. But one thing stands out today: silence. Sorkin warns that many CEOs and financial leaders, despite recognizing the risks, are unwilling to speak out publicly. “If we ever get to a moment where we need to make very difficult decisions,” he says, “are there going to be leaders willing to stand up and explain what needs to happen?”
From invisible debt in private credit markets to the unsustainable business models of leading AI firms, Sorkin and Bremmer explore whether we're ignoring the warning signs once again—and what it would take to avert the next big crash.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Read NowShow less
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