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US-Iran peace talks stall

In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer warns the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is deepening into a prolonged global crisis, with rising economic and geopolitical costs and little sign of progress in US-Iran negotiations.

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Why Cuba won't be the next Venezuela

Trump has promised Cuban Americans that 2026 is the year of change. But University of Miami historian Michael Bustamante says the political reality doesn't match the expectation. Cuba's opposition is weak, divided, and mostly in jail or in exile, with no clear figure ready to take over if the government was to fall.

Some parallels have been drawn to the Venezuela regime decapitation that took place earlier this year. But Venezuela had a fractious but organized opposition that came together around the 2024 election and, by most accounts, won it. Cuba does not have that. Bustamante says the parallel to Venezuela actually cuts the other way. If the Trump administration concluded that even Venezuela's organized opposition wasn't ready to govern, how can it reach a different conclusion about Cuba? "That is not a case that they're making," he says. The gap between the expectations in Miami and the realities in Havana is growing harder to ignore.

Violence creates an environment of fear in US politics

On Saturday, an armed man sprinted through a security checkpoint at the annual White House Correspondents’ Dinner in Washington, D.C., where US President Donald Trump and other administration officials had gathered with all of the country’s top political journalists. The gunman shot a Secret Service agent before law enforcement apprehended him – the agent was saved by a bulletproof vest.

Ahead of the incident, the 31-year-old suspect from Torrance, California, allegedly sent writings to family members describing himself as a “friendly federal assassin” and expressing anger at Trump administration policies, giving authorities increasing confidence that the attack was politically motivated. He is due in court for the first time today.

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Mali’s wretched security crisis gets worse, Israel’s opposition leaders join forces in bid to oust Netanyahu, Romania’s PM on the brink

Killing of Mali’s defense minister exacerbates its security crisis

Jihadist insurgents and Tuareg secessionists assassinated Mali’s Defense Minister Sadio Camara at his home in Kati during coordinated attacks across the West African country on Saturday, as the junta faces yet another major challenge amid the 14-year-long nationwide security crisis. Camara was the architect of the ruling junta’s strategy toward rebel groups since coming to power in 2021. The rebels appear to be gaining ground, as they claimed to have seized full control of the northern town of Kidal on Sunday following the withdrawal of the government-backed Russian Africa Corps – the town has been a separatist stronghold. Mali’s security situation has been deteriorating for months, with the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam al-Muslimin, the jihadist group that has pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda, surrounding the capital Bamako late last year and blocking the supply of oil ever since. The Russian-backed junta’s position, it appears, is only getting more precarious.

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Hard Number: Black Republican exodus from the US House

US Reps. Byron Donalds of Florida, Wesley Hunt of Texas, and John James of Michigan all decided to run for statewide office – although Hunt lost in the Texas Senate primary. US Rep. Burgess Owens of Utah is retiring after his state redrew district lines, making it difficult for him to retain his seat. Some Republicans, notably former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, have been trying to recruit a more diverse group of Republican candidates. That effort appears to be going backward, as US Sen. Tim Scott could be the only Black Republican left in Congress next year. “When you look at the Democrats, they actually look like America,” McCarthy said after leaving Congress in 2023. “When I look at my party, we look like the most restrictive country club in America.”

Cuba on the brink

Cuba is living through its worst economic crisis in decades. Blackouts, fuel shortages, four-day workweeks, and a mass exodus that has cost the island more than 10% of its population. Trump has made no secret of his ambitions, saying he will have "the honor of taking Cuba." But a military invasion is not on the cards, according to University of Miami historian Michael Bustamante. On this week's episode, he joins Ian Bremmer to break down what is really happening on the island, and what Trump can realistically deliver.

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This week, Ian Bremmer sits down with University of Miami historian and Cuba expert Michael Bustamante to make sense of the US-Cuba standoff.

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Trump says he will have "the honor of taking Cuba." While a military intervention seems unlikely for now, US pressure has pushed Cuba's economy into freefall, and Trump wants to be the president who finally delivers what no one else could.

The problem: Cuba has no political alternative to replace the Castro government, and even an economic deal risks a backlash from Cuban Americans who want regime change. Ian Bremmer breaks down what Trump actually wants from Cuba, and why it won't be simple.

The darkest day in history for civilian nuclear energy took place 40 years ago this weekend.

On April 26, 1986, a reactor at a nuclear power plant in the then-Soviet (now Ukrainian) town of Chernobyl exploded, with devastating consequences. Poisonous radiation quickly spread across the area, and eventually most of Europe, affecting 3.5 million people per United Nations estimates, and inducing a huge excess of cancer cases in the region – particularly among young children.

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First Colombia-Venezuela summit since Maduro’s ouster

Colombian President Gustavo Petro meets in Caracas today with Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodríguez, their first encounter since the US deposed Rodríguez’s former boss, Nicolás Maduro, and effectively installed Rodríguez as a viceroy. Petro, a left-winger who has clashed repeatedly with US President Donald Trump despite Bogotá’s close ties to the US, sharply criticized that operation. Top on the agenda is security: Petro wants more Venezuelan help to rein in guerrilla and drug groups operating along the long, porous Colombian-Venezuelan border. Rights groups have accused Caracas of supporting some of those organizations in the past. Bogotá and Caracas have a history of close relations, with millions of people holding dual citizenship. Some 3 million Venezuelan refugees currently live in Colombia, more than in any other country.

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Iraq is caught in an ever-tightening vise. The US Treasury recently blocked the delivery of nearly half a billion dollars in US banknotes to Iraq’s central bank, proceeds from Iraqi oil sales that are held by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The US said it wants Iraq to dismantle Iranian proxies in the country, who claimed responsibility for attacks on a US air base and a US embassy in Baghdad last month. Yet as GZERO’s Zac Weisz reported last week, Iraq still retains a diplomatic and economic relationship with Iran, and desperately wants to remain neutral in this war.

Think you know what's going on around the world? Here's your chance to prove it.

Spain is bucking the EU’s tougher-immigration trend with a new plan that allows undocumented migrants already in the country to apply for legal status. To qualify, applicants have to show what?

  • A) They applied for protected status before the end of 2025 and have lived in Spain for at least five months
  • B) They believe Rafael Nadal is the GOAT
  • C) They paid back taxes for every year they’ve lived in Spain

Take the quiz to see if you guessed correctly!

In the first edition of “ask ian” Live, Ian Bremmer takes questions directly from the GZERO community on two geopolitical flashpoints: China’s strategic patience and the US campaign to squeeze Cuba economically.
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