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May 27, 2026
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Why Trump’s Iran deal could finally end Netanyahu
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The United States and Iran seem to be moving closer to a deal to end the war, recent skirmishing and mixed signals notwithstanding.
If concluded – still a big if – this agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US blockade, unfreeze Iran’s frozen assets (via Qatar), and extend the ceasefire – while kicking nuclear negotiations down the road. There’d be no dismantling of Tehran’s proxies, no restrictions on its ballistic missiles program, no permanent ban on nuclear enrichment, no takeover of its highly-enriched uranium stockpile, no captured oil, no handpicked successor to Ali Khamenei (sorry, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad), no regime change. Iran’s navy and much of its old leadership are gone, but the regime is more entrenched and emboldened – now armed with a proven ability to close the world’s most important oil chokepoint at will, a more effective deterrent than being a threshold nuclear state ever was. Throw in the cost in US lives and treasure, the global economic disruption, and the damage to American credibility, and this is President Donald Trump’s worst foreign policy failure by a long margin.
And yet, despite falling short of his every war aim and leaving the US worse off, this is also the least-worst outcome presently available to Trump (after refusing those terms sooner, starting the war in the first place, and withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal that constrained Iran’s nuclear program to begin with).
The same cannot be said of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. For him, this is the worst conceivable outcome.
Israel’s longest-serving leader faces elections no later than Oct. 27. His popularity has rebounded from the sharp decline that followed the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks and his early handling of the Gaza war and hostage negotiations, owing in no small measure to Israel’s military campaigns against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. At the same time, his ruling coalition of hard-right and ultra-religious parties has consistently polled well short of the 61 Knesset seats needed to retain its parliamentary majority. Bibi set out to topple the Iranian regime; instead, it’s his own that’s on the brink.
While domestic support for the multi-front war remains strong, with Israelis across the political spectrum seeing Tehran and its proxies as existential threats to the Jewish state, most have tired of Netanyahu’s corruption scandals, his attacks on Israel’s democratic institutions, and his subservience to ultra-Orthodox and settler interests. A decisive victory against Iran might have overridden all that and kept “Mr. Security” in power. But as Yair Lapid, one of Netanyahu’s chief rivals, put it: “Three years after Oct. 7, Hamas rules Gaza, Hezbollah rules Lebanon, and instead of an 86-year-old Khamenei ruling Iran, a 56-year-old Khamenei rules Iran.”
A Trump-Tehran deal that leaves the regime not just intact but geopolitically stronger than before would undercut Netanyahu’s pitch to voters that he, and only he, could defeat the Iranian threat, manage Trump, and keep Israel safe. Strip away that shield, and all that's left are the liabilities. Not least among them: his multiple criminal probes. And with Israeli President Isaac Herzog so far declining to pardon him despite pressure from President Trump, the corruption trials will stay a live campaign issue and raise the stakes of defeat beyond the merely political.
Historically, Bibi’s saving grace has been the fragmentation of the anti-Netanyahu opposition – comprising right-wing, centrist, left-wing, and Arab parties – while his own narrow bloc has remained relatively united, with hard-right and ultra-religious partners able to extract policy concessions from Netanyahu that no other government would give them (including Netanyahu’s own previous coalitions). That unity started to crack when ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and UTJ temporarily pulled their support from the coalition last year over Netanyahu’s failure to pass legislation exempting their constituents from military service – a demand he can’t satisfy without losing nationalists, reservists, and the broader public. Meanwhile, two former prime ministers – the centrist Lapid and the right-wing Naftali Bennett – agreed to merge parties and run together on a single unified list that pools resources, maximizes the number of Knesset seats the bloc can win, and projects the kind of unity that eluded the partnership that briefly came to power in 2021 before collapsing under the weight of its internal contradictions.
Current polls show the Jewish opposition bloc close but still two seats short of the 61 needed to form a majority government, a gap that is likely to close if a Trump-Iran agreement is reached. If Gadi Eisenkot, a popular former IDF chief of staff with appeal among security-minded voters, joins the Bennett-Lapid list rather than running separately, it would further consolidate opposition strength. Any defections of Knesset members within Bibi’s Likud who see the writing on the wall and hope to distance themselves from Netanyahu to protect their own seats would help the opposition’s margin too.
I’m not foolish enough to count out a politician nicknamed “the Survivor.” He’s been pronounced politically dead many times before, and he’s still in power. A late pardon from Herzog could help him win back voters who have soured on him over the trials. Much of the Jewish opposition bloc, including its presumptive leader Bennett, has already ruled out a coalition with Arab parties – fearing that post-Oct. 7 nationalist sentiment and the need to peel away voters from Netanyahu’s coalition make it toxic. But without Arab parties’ projected 10-12 seats, the path to an anti-Bibi opposition majority is narrow. Netanyahu will rile up public opposition to an inclusive government with Arabs to make it more so, knowing that if no coalition manages to form a government after the election, he stays on as caretaker prime minister pending a new vote.
That said, don’t hold your breath for a pardon. The polling will get worse, not better, for Netanyahu if the US and Iran reach a deal – enough that a deadlock becomes less likely even with the Arabs out. The worse his odds get, the bigger the risks he’ll take. Which helps explain why, despite US pressure to wind down the fighting, the Israeli military stepped up its offensive against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon this week in response to ongoing rocket and drone strikes on northern Israel. “We are not removing our foot from the pedal,” Netanyahu said. “On the contrary, I said to press on the pedal even more.”
Trump retains effective veto power over any return to the Iran war and has shown little appetite for resuming it, making Lebanon the only available lever. Netanyahu faces intense domestic pressure to use it. Even if the US and Iran reach an agreement that nominally includes de-escalation in Lebanon, Bibi could calculate that neither Trump nor Tehran will want to jeopardize hard-earned peace over Iran-backed Hezbollah. If US-Iran talks collapse and hostilities resume, he’d have a free hand to expand the war in Lebanon. And if the talks drag on, he can argue to Washington that harder pressure on Hezbollah will further compel Tehran to come to terms. Every scenario gives Netanyahu an incentive to escalate ahead of the elections.
Whether it pays off for him is a different question. Bibi has promised total victory for nearly three years – against Hamas, against Hezbollah, against the Islamic Republic – and failed to deliver each time. He may finally pay the price.
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Is an Iran deal in sight?
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In his latest “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer says momentum is building toward a possible deal with Iran, driven by sustained negotiations and shifting US positions.“There’s still ongoing negotiations at a high level,” Ian notes, adding that Washington and Tehran are maintaining “a significant amount of ongoing touch points.”
He points to a key shift in President Trump’s stance on Iran’s nuclear program, moving away from earlier hardline demands. Ian says what was “utterly unacceptable just a week ago” is now being reframed as negotiable in the pursuit of an agreement.
Ian says Trump is also trying to broaden the diplomatic agenda by reviving talk of the Abraham Accords, but warns that key countries like Saudi Arabia joining remain unlikely.
While momentum is building, Ian cautions the situation is still fragile, with “plenty of ways that this can screw up.”
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US strikes on Iran won’t stop negotiations, Brazil’s scandal-plagued Bolsonaro seeks Trump boost, Hong Kong becomes leading hub for offshore funds
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US-Iran: Is a deal still possible?
The merry-go-round of negotiations between the two countries continues. The latest began on Saturday, when US President Donald Trump said an agreement was “largely negotiated,” before Iran poured cold water on this. The US military then hit Iranian missile launchers and boats suspected of dropping mines in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Iran denounced those strikes yesterday, calling them a sign of “bad faith and unreliability.”
Yet Monday’s skirmishes in the Strait don’t “undermine the ceasefire or indicate talks are at risk of breaking down,” according to Eurasia Group’s Iran expert Greg Brew. He added that both sides made clear that they didn’t plan a return to fighting. “Neither side wants to derail talks,” said Brew. Trump will gather his Cabinet today to further discuss negotiations. Complicating matters, though, is that Israel started pounding Hezbollah-controlled areas of Lebanon on Tuesday – Tehran has said that a ceasefire must include one between Israel and the militant group.
Meanwhile Iranians are starting to get back online, albeit slowly and not for the majority of the country. This latest internet shutdown, which lasted nearly three months, has battered the already-ravaged economy, costing the country an estimated $30 to 40 million each day. Iran, as Eurasia Group’s Head of Research Jon Lieber noted recently, is eager to achieve a new status quo and move on from the conflict.
Flavio Bolsonaro flexes friendship with Trump amid corruption scandal
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro met with US President Donald Trump on Tuesday in Washington, D.C., in an apparent attempt to boost his presidential campaign ahead of October’s election. Bolsonaro – the son of jailed former president and Trump ally, Jair Bolsonaro – has been neck-and-neck with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the polls, but a recent major corruption scandal involving an alleged request for $12 million from a banker jailed for corruption has hurt his polling numbers. Bolsonaro is not the first conservative politician to lean on Trump’s friendship ahead of an election: the US president publicly endorsed Hungary’s Viktor Orbán ahead of the April election there, although some argue that his support hurt Orbán in the end. Will the move pay off for Bolsonaro?
Hong Kong overtakes Switzerland as wealth destination
For as long as anyone can remember, few things have been cooler or more mysterious to have than “a Swiss bank account.” But now there’s a new leader in clandestine money-keeping: as of 2025, Hong Kong has surpassed Switzerland as the world’s top cross-border wealth hub, booking nearly $3 trillion worth of international assets last year. The shift comes as investors seek to diversify their wealth-parking spots amid growing geopolitical tension and uncertainty. But above all it reflects massive new wealth in China, which by itself is the source of 60% of Hong Kong inflows. It was just a few years ago, mind you, that Hong Kong suffered an exodus of international capital because of Beijing’s draconian new security laws that tightened the mainland’s grip on the island. But private wealth doesn’t seem to mind at all, making “a Hong Kong bank account” the new flex of all flexes.Keep reading...Show less
Cornyn’s defeat could cost Republicans dearly
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Cornyn’s hefty loss yesterday to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (whom US President Donald Trump endorsed) in the Senate runoff yesterday will be a costly one for the Republican Party. Firstly, the GOP is losing one of their most prolific fundraisers in Senate history. Secondly, Paxton’s scandal-filled history – including allegations of corruption and security fraud charges – could undermine his candidacy, and put the conservative state in play for Democratic nominee James Talarico. Even if Paxton does win, Republicans will likely have to spend much more than they would have if Cornyn won the primary. What’s more, Cornyn still has six months or so in office, so he could become another dissenting voice within the Republican conference.
What’s Good Wednesday: May 27, 2026
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Read about a political drama at a New York food co-op may sound like the kind of dispute only Brooklyn could produce. Think contentious debates over tahini, permissions, and a peanut butter snack puff called Osem Bamba. Yet, it’s also a microcosm of the ideological divisions in the US over Israel after the war in Gaza. The New York Times breaks down the saga that’s been marked by threats, suspicious substances, congressional candidates weighing in, and a vote yesterday by the co-op’s 17,000 members approving of the boycott. – Natalie J.
Watch: “Obsession.” Ever wanted your crush to love you more than anything else in the world? That’s the plot of the newest horror on the block. The lead, Bear (Michael Johnston), breaks a one-wish willow, as he longs for Nikki (Inde Navarrette) to fall madly in love with him. And so she does. Completely. Disturbingly. Irreversibly. What follows is the kind of horror that keeps you glued to your seat one moment and covering your eyes the next. Director Curry Barker's theatrical debut is dark, sinister, and wickedly original. How do you escape someone who loves you exactly the way you asked? For maximum chills, catch the 11 pm show in your nearest theatre. – Suhani
Read: “Empire of the Elite” by Michael Grynbaum. Traditional media isn’t the powerhouse industry it used to be. But once upon a time, it was a ubiquitous societal force that kept us informed and told us how to live our lives – and Condé Nast was at the very center of that. Grynbaum details how the collection of Condé Nast publications (including Vogue, Vanity Fair, and The New Yorker) rose to dominate the media industry under the leadership of Si Newhouse, a status-conscious nepo baby with a love for print magazines. Come for the allegories about the rise of media legends like Tina Brown and Anna Wintour, stay for the stories about the wild and glitzy lifestyle that the Condé editors once lived. – Zac
Chris, an Army veteran, started his Walmart journey over 25 years ago as an hourly associate. Today, he manages a Distribution Center and serves as a mentor, helping others navigate their own paths to success. At Walmart, associates have the opportunity to take advantage of the pathways, perks, and pay that come with the job — with or without a college degree. In fact, more than 75% of Walmart management started as hourly associates. Learn more about how over 130,000 associates were promoted into roles of greater responsibility and higher pay in FY25.
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer says the Russia–Ukraine war is becoming more volatile as battlefield dynamics shift and diplomatic pressure fades.
Ian points to renewed Russian strikes on Kyiv and Vladimir Putin's warnings urging Western diplomats and civilians to evacuate, signaling possible “systematic strikes” on the capital. He says these threats come as Ukraine strengthens its drone warfare capabilities and expands its ability to strike deeper inside Russia.
He also notes a change in US posture, saying Secretary of State Marco Rubio has “washed his hands of the Russia-Ukraine war,” reducing direct American pressure on Moscow.
Ian warns the greater risk now lies in Moscow’s response. “It would be hard for him to back down,” he says, arguing that an increasingly isolated Kremlin could escalate further as the war continues.
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Last week, Microsoft took legal and technical action to disrupt Fox Tempest, a cybercrime-as-a-service operation that enabled attackers to disguise malware as trusted software and scale ransomware attacks globally. The case highlights a growing shift toward service-based cybercrime ecosystems and the importance of targeting upstream tools that make attacks harder to detect.
Read the full blog here.
Cambodia has been an autocracy ever since Hun seized power in a coup d’état in 1997, but it is apparently looking to change that image. On Monday, the president announced that he would be freeing Kem from house arrest, barely a month after an appeals court upheld the conviction against him – one that carried a 27-year sentence. The move is reportedly an effort to repair frayed ties with the West, as the Southeast Asian country looks to hedge against its long-term ally China.
Turkey’s crisis of democracy deepens
Riot police over the weekend raided the headquarters of Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), following a court order to remove party leader Özgur Özel. There were subsequent demonstrations in Istanbul and Ankara against the move by the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, one that protesters and rights groups saw as politically motivated: under Özel, elected as chair in 2023, the CHP has mounted a competitive opposition to Erdoğan, who has held power for more than 20 years. Last year, courts jailed another prominent CHP figure, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who is seen as a viable candidate in the next presidential election. But the current assault on the party has also benefited from divisions within the CHP itself about leadership. The courts have effectively backed a faction that supports the party’s previous leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who largely failed to mount an effective challenge to Erdoğan. On Tuesday, Özel himself called for fresh party elections to settle the issue. Will the courts allow it?
US-Iran talks: deal or no deal?
For now, it’s “no deal.” On Monday night, the US military struck missile launch sites in Iran, as well as what it says were Iranian boats that were trying to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The weekend started with hopes of a deal, after US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that an agreement was “largely negotiated,” with Israel’s consent. However, Trump tempered those expectations on Sunday, before Iran said Monday that a deal was “not imminent.” Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that his military would intensify its attacks on the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah – Iran has demanded that an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire be included in one they make with the United States. All to say: there’s work to do before a deal is done – although negotiations are ongoing.
Political shakeup in Senegal puts IMF deal at risk
A political showdown is brewing in Senegal after President Bassirou Diomaye Faye on Friday dismissed his former ally, the popular Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko. Their relationship has fractured over how to manage the West African nation’s growing public debt: the IMF recently suspended its $1.8 billion loan program after discovering $13 billion in previously undisclosed debt (Senegal’s debt is a whopping 132% of its GDP), and while Faye supports the IMF restructuring plan, Sonko opposed it. But on Sunday, the speaker of Parliament resigned, and Sonko was quickly elected on Tuesday to replace him. With Sonko now holding the second-highest political office in the country and his party holding the most seats in Parliament, he is positioned to significantly influence – and potentially obstruct – any future legislation that Faye puts forward and throw talks with the IMF into disarray.
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Back in January, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a call to arms to the world’s middle powers at the World Economic Forum, projecting Canada as a defender of the multilateral global order. But now, at home, a separatist movement threatens to unravel that image – and, if successful, could even fracture Canada itself.
Last week, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced that her government will hold a referendum this fall asking whether the province should hold a binding vote on secession from Canada. If a majority of voters then called for independence, that vote could kick-start negotiations with Canada to make Alberta a separate state.
On Monday, Carney weighed in, calling Smith’s move a “dangerous bluff” if Albertans believe it will “strengthen their hand” in future negotiations with Ottawa. Smith’s staunchly conservative government is currently demanding greater autonomy, including more control over immigration. The oil-rich province also wants to build a second petroleum pipeline to Canada’s West Coast, a project that currently requires the federal government’s approval.
But the real trouble for Canada – and Carney – could be the referendum’s impact on relations with Washington and the world. Canada and the US are currently renegotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) ahead of a looming July 1 deadline. Carney is also aggressively seeking foreign investment from foreign companies and other countries. Domestic conflict could not just sap Ottawa’s political energy but undermine Carney’s sales pitch that Canada is a “stable, reliable partner, in a world that is anything but.”
Why are Albertans angry? Like many other subnational separatist movements, including those of Scotland, Belgium, and Spain, Alberta’s is fueled by a combination of economics, culture and identity, and an overall sense that its destiny would be better served by controlling its own affairs.
Alberta has long complained that Ottawa has taken its money while damaging its resource industry. Between 1980 and 1984, Ottawa’s National Energy Program imposed price controls on Canadian oil and gas, causing thousands of job losses in the province, while decades of equalization payments redistributed Alberta’s wealth to poorer provinces. Anger intensified over the past decade under former PM Justin Trudeau, whose government introduced carbon pricing, emissions caps, and stricter environmental reviews of new oil and gas projects.
Last year, the Alberta separatist movement channeled these grievances into a referendum campaign, collecting over 300,000 signatures from the province’s 5 million citizens. The campaign suffered a setback, however, when a court threw out the petition earlier this month, ruling that Alberta’s Indigenous peoples had not been adequately consulted, leaving the issue in the hands of the province’s premier.
In light of this decision, which is now under appeal, Smith ultimately decided not to hold a vote on separation this fall, but instead on whether Alberta should begin “the process” to hold a binding referendum on separation in the future – a somewhat confusing move that essentially amounts to a referendum on a referendum. Rather than pacify separatist voters, she appears to have inflamed them. Jeffrey Rath, a lawyer advocating for separation with the Alberta Prosperity Project, claims that Smith “just lost her base” because of the framing — and, in the current geopolitical context, this could have broader political implications.
The American factor. Rath’s group sees an opportunity for the Alberta independence movement south of the border and has traveled to Washington to explore it. Last year, members claimed to have met with “cabinet-level” officials in the Trump administration. The meeting was not confirmed by the White House, but US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later told a conservative podcast that Alberta was “a natural partner” for the US and there is a “rumor that they may have a referendum on whether they want to stay in Canada or not.”
Canada currently supplies roughly 60% of US crude oil imports, with Alberta accounting for the overwhelming majority, and the Trump administration appears ready to expand that relationship: it recently greenlit an extension to the Keystone pipeline, a 1,200-mile-long route intended to carry crude between Canada and the US that had been quashed by the Biden administration.
Statements like Bessent’s, along with US President Donald Trump’s musings about making Canada the 51st state, have fueled concern that an independent Alberta might join the United States. Currently, only 17% of Albertans support that idea. However, over 70% believe the United States would use economic and political pressure to compel an independent Alberta to join the US, while more than half believe Washington would resort to military means to do so.
While an American annexation is not currently on the horizon, the very fact that the province is considering leaving creates political insecurity within Canada. Investors could hit pause on oil and gas development projects over concerns of instability, dampen economic growth, and weaken Canada’s hand in trade negotiations with the US.
Where do Albertans sit on independence? A recent poll shows that 60% of voters in the province would vote no on holding a future referendum on separation. But members of Smith’s governing United Conservative Party (UCP), which commands over half the support of Alberta voters, feel the opposite: 64% of UCP voters intend to vote yes to kickstart the process of holding a binding vote, while 57% are in favor of separation itself.
Even if Alberta never achieves independence, the movement has the potential to weaken the Canadian federation and consume its politics for decades, much as the separatist movement in Quebec did from the 1960s to the early 2000s. The ensuing political turmoil there raised Quebec’s cost of borrowing and increased its debt, pushed 100,000 people to leave the province over four years, increased unemployment, and led the federal government to attempt twice to amend the Canadian constitution to satisfy Quebec, to no avail. Ironically, today the Quebec separatist movement is also resurging ahead of the province’s October elections — meaning that Ottawa could be dealing with two separatist movements simultaneously, and turn Carney’s focus from rebuilding the international order to keeping his own country together.Read NowShow less
Can use this excuse for almost anything now.
Students keep the pressure on ruling party in Serbia
Student protesters will take to the streets in Serbia this weekend in the first major demonstrations this year against President Aleksandar Vučić. Students have become a significant political force in Serbia over the last two years: in 2025, then-Prime Minister Miloš Vučević resigned after anti‑corruption protests led by students brought an estimated 100,000 people to the streets of Belgrade. Many Serbians remain frustrated with what they see as democratic backsliding since the Serbian Progressive Party came to power in 2012. The country is even at risk of losing more than $1.8 billion in European Union funds earmarked for aspiring member states that meet certain democratic reform goals — the bloc has criticized Serbia’s past crackdown on protests and continued ties to Russia. This new round of protests is certain to put additional pressure on Vučić’s party ahead of national elections scheduled for this fall.
Dems finally release election autopsy – but few are happy
“I am not proud of this product,” Democratic Party Chair Ken Martin wrote of his party’s autopsy over their 2024 election loss, after releasing it yesterday. It’s easy to see why: the report makes no mention of the party infighting over the Gaza war – one of several cleavages within the party – omits any reference to former President Joe Biden’s age, and fails to even have a conclusion. There’s also no reference to former Vice President Kamala Harris’s media struggles (like her initial refusal to hold interviews or inability to make a distinction between herself and Biden). What it does say, however, is that the Democrats failed to make a strong enough case for why Harris should hold the top job. Given the furor surrounding the report and the critical reaction to its contents, the only outcome of this report could be that it exacerbates the party's internal divisions.
For more on what Democrats have (or haven’t) learned from the 2024 defeat, watch Ian Bremmer’s interview with former White House Chief of Staff (and potential 2028 presidential candidate) Rahm Emanuel here.
Are US troops leaving Europe or not?
Three weeks ago, US President Donald Trump said he was withdrawing 5,000 troops from Germany. The move was seen as retaliation for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s criticism of Trump’s Iran war, but it also fit with the US leader’s larger aim of reducing American defense obligations to Europe. Then two weeks ago, the White House said that rather than withdrawing all those troops from Germany, it would “temporarily” cancel the deployment of 4,000 troops to Poland. The Poles were not happy. Now Trump says, actually, the US is sending 5,000 troops to Poland, a country that is rapidly boosting its military capacity and which his Defense secretary has called “a model ally.” The Pentagon said earlier this week that the policy on troop deployments in Europe is coming out of a “comprehensive, multilayered process,” but the tension between “we’re leaving!” and “we’re staying but only in countries we like!” leaves the future US defense posture in Europe clear as mud.
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