Modi’s Cockroach Problem
If you see one cockroach in daylight, there are dozens more ready to come out in the night. That’s the challenge facing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as New Delhi is rocked by protests from the “cockroach” youth movement. Modi has been in firm control of India for 12 years—an era defined by, to his supporters, transformative economic growth and, to his detractors, democratic backsliding. But after his closer-than-expected election to a third term in 2024, followed by escalating youth protests this year, Modi’s government suddenly looks vulnerable.
Modi isn’t going anywhere fast: he has enough popularity and votes in parliament to weather the cockroach protests. But the youth backlash has exposed cracks in his support and an increasing desire from Indians to reevaluate his record. That shift matters not just for India but for the world.
Modi’s problems began over the summer. After the National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (NEET)—the exam Indian students take to qualify for medical school—leaked, India’s education department asked more than 2 million students to retake it. In a country with high youth unemployment and few university spots for a young population (with a median age of 29.2), the NEET exam brought serious anxiety even before the scandal broke. The government’s demand for everyone to retake the test allegedly led to the deaths of at least 12 students by suicide, sparking widespread outrage.
Shortly thereafter, Indian Chief Justice Surya Kant called India’s discontented young people “cockroaches,” leading an Indian student in the United States, Abhijeet Dipke, to form the “Cockroach Janta Party” (CJP), a satire of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The meme became a movement, as the cockroaches protested the entrance exam fiasco in the thousands, prompting a violent crackdown from law enforcement. Modi—historically unbending in response to protests—was forced to give in, and Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan resigned.
Now, the protesters are back and targeting India’s election chief Gyanesh Kumar because of his decision to purge 130 million people from the voter rolls. Modi’s BJP says this is a normal process, as the country periodically verifies those on its electoral rolls (to ensure those who have died or moved away aren’t included), but the cockroach movement argues that Modi is culling the electorate of Muslim and other voters unlikely to support his Hindu nationalist party.
The voter rolls are particularly important as India hurtles toward seven state elections in 2027, headlined by Uttar Pradesh and Punjab in northern India and Modi’s home state of Gujarat in the west. Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest state by population, will render a verdict on BJP Chief Minister—and rumored potential successor to Modi—Yogi Adityanath. In a time of significant discontent, 2027 offers an electoral opportunity for voters displeased with BJP rule.
Modi’s government cracked down on the protesters and arrested (then released) CJP founder Abhijeet Dipke. But this isn’t a problem that Modi can fix with law enforcement. These protests have staying power because they’re tapping into young voters’ widespread frustration with the political establishment over an economic growth story that has excluded many of them.
Modi’s credibility has long stemmed from overseeing a period of rapid economic growth—outpacing all other major economies—spurred by a boom in India’s services industry. Since 2014, India has seen a more than 10% jump in electricity access (nearly the entire population now has access) and a more than 20% jump in citizens with an account at a financial institution, aided by Modi’s focus on expanding infrastructure and India’s digital identification system. India is in prime position to continue this growth, with a young population in a moment where nearly every large economy is grappling with aging workforces.
However, India’s growth story under Modi isn’t entirely clear-cut. His government’s massive public spending has propped up GDP growth, but private investment has been stubbornly low as a share of the economy for years—creating a development model that might prove unsustainable. Compared to other Asian economies that went through periods of skyrocketing growth—like China, Japan, and Korea—India still hasn’t developed a robust manufacturing industry, which might limit its growth potential long term. There’s also mounting evidence that Modi’s administration has undermined the government’s ability to maintain accurate economic data, leading to questions over the growth numbers it cites. And, of course, there’s the problem that kickstarted the cockroach movement: youth unemployment, which was nearly in the double digits last year.
Add to that longstanding anger about the BJP’s discrimination against India’s 200 million Muslims (including Modi’s decision to divide the Muslim-majority state of Jammu and Kashmir) and broader concerns over democratic backsliding fueled by declining freedom of expression, and you have the foundation of a political movement against India’s longtime leader.
Yet while Modi’s approval ratings have dipped slightly, over half the population still rates his performance as “good,” and he has a more than twenty-point lead on other potential prime ministerial candidates. His coalition continues to hold a majority in parliament that will sustain him until the next national election in 2029. And he’s still benefiting from a carefully constructed cult of personality and his strategic wielding of social benefits to endear himself to voters.
The story of these protests is not one of an impending realignment in Indian politics but a slow chipping away at Modi’s political machine, as he reaches the back half of his third term. That’s significant for geopolitics given Modi’s hardline approach to Pakistan, careful management of relationships with both China and the United States, and expansion of trade with new partners, from Europe to South America. Modi’s support at home has allowed India to project its power far from its borders. But in an environment where that domestic strength is declining, so too might India’s diplomatic heft.
So, even though the protesters aren’t likely to take down Modi’s government, they warrant real attention. Modi’s tenure, for all its successes, has left more than enough crumbs for his political opposition to feed on. And the cockroach party knows it.
