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2026 Midterms and the battle for Congress, with Amy Walter and Liam Donovan

Could a blue wave be coming in November? With the 2026 midterms approaching, Democrats are hoping to flip both chambers of Congress, while Republicans are fighting to hold onto their narrow majorities. But the battle for the House and Senate looks very different, and even with voter frustration mounting, the outcome is far from certain.

On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, and Republican strategist Liam Donovan to examine the state of the midterm races. They discuss why the Iran war and rising gas prices have become major political liabilities for Republicans, whether Trump can mobilize his base despite his declining popularity, and why Democrats are focusing on affordability, corruption, and voter frustration rather than cultural issues.

But the stakes extend well beyond November. What would a Democratic-controlled Congress actually mean for the final two years of Trump's presidency? Could a major Democratic victory change the party's direction, or simply reinforce its opposition to Trump? And as both parties look toward 2028, is JD Vance positioned to inherit the Republican nomination, and what kind of candidate could emerge for Democrats?

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Washington’s controversial new approach to foreign aid

What do countries receiving US foreign aid owe Washington? Since returning to power in 2025, the Trump administration has drastically changed the answer to this question, pursuing an ‘America First’ philosophy that is dramatically more transactional: the US will give you money, but you must give the US something valuable in return.

In the mineral-rich Southern African country of Zambia, for example, the US tried to negotiate an agreement under which the US would provide more than $1 billion in funding to fight diseases such as HIV and malaria. But Zambia would not only have had to contribute over $2 billion of its own money, but it would also have to hand over something potentially far more valuable: its citizens’ health data.

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Indonesian wildfires rage, Ethiopia imposes interim government on rebel region, Mexico tries to ban harmful content

Indonesia’s wildfires ignite regional tensions

Indonesia’s worst wildfires in a decade are quickly becoming a domestic and international headache for President Prabowo Subianto. He has so far refused to declare a national emergency, which would free up more resources to fight the blazes. Prabowo says the government has things under control without one, but critics say he’s worried that an emergency declaration would show weakness. Meanwhile, residents on the island of Borneo near the epicenter of the fires are suing the federal government for negligence, demanding free healthcare and compensation for families who have lost loved ones. Indonesia’s neighbors are also losing patience. Singapore has threatened to sue Indonesian companies it holds responsible for the fires, while the wildfire smoke has forced Malaysia and East Timor to close their own schools. Nearly 3,500 square miles have burned since January, with drought conditions brought on by El Niño fueling the flames.

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Senegal’s LGBTQ+ crackdown

Senegalese LGBTQ+ people have also faced forced HIV testing and challenges getting legal representation amid a wider crackdown. As a candidate in the 2024 election, now-president Bassirou Diomaye Faye pledged to strengthen existing laws that criminalized same-sex relations. In March the government doubled the maximum prison term for same-sex relations to 10 years. Senegal also introduced fines for promoting, supporting, or financing LGBTQ+ organizations or groups.

You vs. the News: A Weekly News Quiz - October 16, 2026


Think you know what's going on around the world? Here's your chance to prove it


Protests have rocked Albania this week. They began months ago in opposition to a seaside resort project led by Jared Kushner that would displace what?

  • A) Flamingos
  • B) A large refugee encampment
  • C) A sacred volcano

Take the quiz to see if you guessed correctly!

The French are furious at Macron–for good reason

French president Emmanuel Macron promised to renew France and build a stronger Europe. As his presidency nears its end, he's leaving France worse off than he found it.

On The Debrief, Eurasia Group's Europe practice head Mujtaba Rahman breaks down the three crises looming over France: political turmoil, strained public finances, and a younger generation losing faith in its future. With the far right poised to benefit, France’s problems could become Europe’s.

AI is advancing with both feet on the accelerator. At last week’s GZERO Summit in London, Ian Bremmer spotlighted the risks posed by frontier AI models and the imperative for independent, globally minded AI governance.

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Anti-immigration political parties are making big gains across Europe these days. Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) party just won two major state parliamentary elections, campaigning in part on mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. Spain’s far-right Vox party continues to grow in popularity, especially after a recent surge of migrants from Morocco into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta. And in France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is climbing in the polls ahead of next year’s presidential election, promising tougher border controls and restrictions on immigration.

It may at first seem curious, then, that this is happening at a time when irregular migration into Europe is actually declining — and fast.

According to a new report from the International Organization for Migration, the number of migrants and asylum seekers who arrived by sea in the first nine months of 2026 has plummeted nearly 40% — to 60,000 — compared to the same period last year. Overall, in 2025, the number of irregular border crossings of all kinds fell to below 200,000. That is a staggering drop from the height of the European migrant crisis of 2015-2016, when more than a million people sought refuge in Europe.

What accounts for the decline?

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Bukele’s controversial crackdown on gang violence in El Salvador has featured sweeping arrests under state of emergency powers, imprisoning tens of thousands of people in maximum-security prisons where they face mass trials. Those measures have contributed to a drastic reduction in the country’s homicide rate — dropping from 100 murders per 100,000 in 2015 to just 1.3 by 2025 — and making Bukele, the self-styled “world’s coolest dictator,” immensely popular at home. However, critics say the decline is partly due to the reclassification of certain kinds of homicides, and that the president’s policies violate human rights and due process for those arrested. Bukele’s change of heart would affect only people accused of collaborating with gangs — say, by making extortion payments or serving as lookouts — rather than those accused of being gang members.

Flamingo protests escalate in Albania

Protests in Albania turned violent Wednesday night as rioters attacked government buildings and set storefronts ablaze in the capital, Tirana. More peaceful demonstrations began several months ago, triggered by opposition to a luxury hotel development project led by President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner that would have displaced local flamingo populations. But the protests quickly took on broader frustrations over graft in what is one of Europe’s most corrupt countries — Albania scores just 39 out of 100 on Transparency International’s corruption perceptions index. Protesters are now calling for Prime Minister Edi Rama to resign, but he has so far refused. Albania has been seeking EU membership since becoming a candidate in 2014 — and has been in direct talks since 2022 — but concerns over graft, organized crime, and money laundering have long hindered its bid.

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What does the rise of ethno-nationalism mean for the future of US-EU relations? At last week's GZERO Summit in London, Ian Bremmer unpacked how Trump and his potential successors' embrace of this shift could reshape the transatlantic relationship in 2028 and beyond.

In this ‘ask ian,’ Ian Bremmer explains how the US blockade of Iran and Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia are driving disruptions of global energy and shipping across the Middle East.

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