Cybercrime has evolved into a complex, interconnected ecosystem. Microsoft’s latest story unpacks five recent disruption efforts, showing how coordinated action across technology, legal, and global partnerships is reshaping how these threats are addressed.
By connecting insights across cases, it highlights a more integrated approach to anticipating and disrupting cybercrime at scale.
Read the full story here.
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer calls the United States under President Trump the dominant driver of global political risk, but argues that the world is increasingly pushing back.
He says that a more unilateral and transactional US foreign policy, combined with efforts to reduce institutional checks, has driven outsized global uncertainty over the past year and a half.
Ian points to escalating tariffs and the US-China standoff as an early example, noting Washington “effectively putting a boycott on the Chinese” before pulling back after economic and political pressure.
He also highlights Iran, where escalation and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz forced the US to “back down,” underscoring limits to American coercive power.
While Ian expects continued disruption from the United States, he says growing domestic and international constraints will make it harder for Trump to fundamentally reshape the global system.
Sri Lanka is facing one of the worst outbreaks of the mosquito-borne dengue virus in years. Amid energy shortages sparked by the war in Iran, dengue cases are straining hospital resources. In a bid to eliminate mosquito breeding grounds, the Sri Lanka Air Force has launched drones to detect sites where the insects breed across the country’s rooftops. Once found, property owners must clear them, or face fines.
On July 4, the United States will celebrate its 250th birthday. Over the past two and a half centuries, American society has changed profoundly, from an agrarian republic of 13 colonies to the urban, diverse, and economic superpower it is today. To mark the quarter-millennium, we decided to look back on how the country has evolved since its last major milestone, the bicentennial.
One of the most striking developments in politics, economics, and society since 1976 is the increasingly diverse face of the nation. As our Graphic Truth shows, Hispanic Americans have increased to roughly a fifth of the population – a more than fourfold jump – while the Asian American population has grown nearly ninefold, from under 1% since the 1970 census to 6% in 2024.
In 1970, only 4.7% of the US population was foreign-born, the lowest share in the country’s recorded history. That reflected the long shadow of the 1924 Immigration Act, which aimed to tighten immigration from Southern and Eastern Europe. That law, along with other restrictive immigration measures, wasn’t repealed until 1965. Because the US experienced relatively little immigration over four decades, the country's demographic breakdown in the 1970s reflected that period of demographic stagnation.
Meanwhile, the share of non-Hispanic white Americans has dropped, from 83% to 56%. The almost 30 percentage point decrease reflects a half-century of steady flows of immigration into the country, the growth of ethnic minority groups, as well as a decrease driven by an aging population and lower fertility rates, meaning deaths outnumber births among non-Hispanic white Americans.
The picture, however, is even more complicated. Since the 1970s, the way the US Census records race and ethnicity has changed. Only since 2000 has the census allowed Americans to tick off more than one box for race – prior to the 21st century, people of multi-racial backgrounds had to select the race with which they most identified.
In 2030, the census will change again. After decades of advocacy, people with origins in the Middle East and North Africa will receive their own ethnic category, and “Latino” will be included as an option under “race and ethnicity.” As the US approaches its 250th birthday, it’s clear the country remains a demographic in motion. The picture is always changing, and the next census suggests it will continue to evolve in ways that challenge assumptions about who Americans are.
At least a dozen Mexican lawmakers – including members of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s Morena party – have reportedly offered to be informants to the United States as part of Washington’s investigations into elected officials’ alleged collusion with cartels. Sheinbaum has denounced the investigations, using them as a rallying cry for her left-wing party. However, the Mexican leader doesn’t want to anger the White House for two main reasons: she wants to stave off a potential US strike on cartels, as a US hit on Mexican land will not go down well among the Mexican public, and to ensure that Washington maintains free trade (the US buys some 80% of all Mexico’s exports). Reports of lawmakers cooperating with investigators will only further increase Washington’s leverage over Sheinbaum, meaning she might have to sacrifice her standing with her own party to retain good relations with the White House.
The latest ceasefire agreement, signed on Friday, commits Lebanon to disarming the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah. Under the terms of the deal, Israeli forces would then exit southern Lebanon. There’s just one problem: Hezbollah, as you might imagine, rejects the agreement. The speaker of the Lebanese Parliament – a top political ally of the group – even said on Saturday it was an “incitement to civil war.” An all-out civil conflict remains a remote possibility – neither the Lebanese government nor Hezbollah wants a head-to-head collision with the other – but there are growing signs of unrest, as Hezbollah supporters blocked major roads in Beirut on Friday to protest the agreement. We’ll be watching closely for the militant group’s next move.
On Sunday, Pakistan launched deadly airstrikes near the countries’ 1,600-mile shared border, in retaliation for an attack on Pakistani paramilitaries on Saturday. There’s a dispute over the nature of the deaths: the Afghan Taliban said the airstrikes killed at least 36 civilians, while Islamabad said it killed 32 militants. Violence has been ticking up in recent weeks, shattering a relative period of calm between the two neighbors who’ve been fighting since late February. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of harboring members of the Pakistani Taliban, which has carried out attacks on Pakistani police and security forces in recent years – the Afghan Taliban denies these charges, but has privately acknowledged that some Afghan militants have joined the group. The latest violence heightens the risk of further escalation as the Chinese-led peace talks stall.
The Supreme Court is set to make several high-stakes decisions in the final week of its term. Birthright citizenship, campaign finance laws, and whether transgender girls and women can play on female sports teams in public school and college are all left on the docket. One major ruling was delivered on Monday morning: the Court blocked the Trump administration from firing a sitting Federal Reserve governor, Lisa Cook, while allowing the firing of a Federal Trade Commission member without cause. The decision gives the White House greater control of independent agencies – just not the central bank
As the war in Ukraine drags through its fifth year, Russia’s fortunes are beginning to sour. In recent months, the Ukrainian military has made its most significant gains since the summer of 2023. Kyiv’s weapons meanwhile are expanding their range, striking energy facilities deep into the heart of Russia while also pummeling the oil infrastructure in Moscow with strikes that subjected residents to days of “black rain.”
Caught in the middle of all this is Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko.
Often referred to as “Europe’s last dictator,” Lukashenko has ruled over former-Soviet Belarus, a country of 9 million people that borders both Russia and Ukraine (as well as the Baltics and Poland), ever since the collapse of the USSR in 1991.
He has clung to power through a mix of domestic repression and foreign help from Russia. Minsk remains reliant on Moscow for financial support, economic trade, and defense – it sits under Russia’s nuclear umbrella. Ever since Lukashenko violently quelled the domestic protests of 2020 against his regime, the West has snubbed Belarus, applying sanctions and other pressure that have made the country yet more reliant on the Kremlin.
“Lukashenko has nowhere to go and is not in position to break with Vladimir Putin and repeatedly speaks about his loyalty to Russia,” Valery Kavaleuski, a former Belarusian diplomat who opposes Lukashenko and advocates for better EU-Belarus relations, told GZERO.
Now the Russian president wants some payback. For months, Putin has reportedly been urging Lukashenko to increase Belarus’s role in the invasion of Ukraine. Minsk already provides logistical support, and has hosted Russian military drills as well as tactical nuclear weapons, but Putin wants more.
“This enhanced involvement could range from offering more use of Belarusian airspace, to infrastructure to conduct Russian drone attacks, to Russian military entering Ukraine from Belarus, to Belarusian armed forces engaging in combat against Ukrainians,” said Kavaleuski.
Lukashenko has recently been expanding the country’s armed forces, militarizing schools, and mobilizing civilian institutions for potential combat support, according to a report that the Belarusian opposition recently presented to the Ukrainian government. On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that the construction of various Belarusian military infrastructure projects along the Ukraine-Belarus border were “nearing completion.”
But Lukashenko is reluctant to increase his involvement too much. For one thing, Zelensky threatened to strike Belarus if it continued to allow Russia to use its ground stations for drone strikes. Lukashenko has, of course, already seen what Ukraine is able to do to Russia and it is unlikely that his forces could mount any better defense against Ukrainian drones. In fact, the Ukrainian president’s threats against Belarus appeared to strike a chord: the Belarusian ground stations are no longer in use, according to Zelensky. What’s more, Lukashenko made clear on Wednesday that he doesn’t want to fight Ukrainian soldiers.
“For the first time in years, Lukashenko moved quickly and visibly in response to pressure from someone other than Putin,” according to the Atlantic Council’s Hanna Liubakova, a Belarusian journalist who is wanted by Russian authorities. “Kyiv has found the language that works with Minsk – and everyone around Lukashenko noticed.”
What’s more, experts say, deeper involvement might risk a backlash from his own population. Although public opinion polling is sparse in Lukashenko’s police state, a poll from the outset of the Ukraine war in 2022 showed only 5% wanted their country to get involved. Given Russia’s fortunes in the war, it’s hard to imagine that figure has risen since then.
And while Belarus’s opposition is still under tremendous pressure, Lukashenko may be wary of giving them an opening of any kind.
“The opposition knocking him off his perch still requires a political opening that isn’t visible yet,” said Liubakova. “But the foundations of his position – that Russia is strong, that loyalty to the Kremlin pays, that there is no other leverage – are under more pressure than at any point since 2020.”
All of this means Lukashenko is “increasingly concerned about the direction of the war,” according to Kavaleuski.
“He is afraid not only of Russia, but also of Ukraine. On a larger scale, Belarus is under severe pressure from all its five neighbours. This layout has created dangerous conditions for sovereignty and independence of Belarus.”
The death toll from the Venezuelan earthquakes continues to rise, nearing 600 by Friday morning. The US believes that figure could rise to a staggering 10,000 once all the dead are located under the rubble. The human and economic toll are immense. But as is often the case with natural disasters of this scale, there will be a political dynamic too. After ousting strongman Nicolás Maduro in January, the US chose to work with his deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, rather than risk the instability of immediate regime change or fresh elections. That proved unpopular among Venezuelans. Now, in the aftermath of one of the country’s worst natural disasters in a century, that arrangement is being tested. Is the current government up to the tasks of rescue, aid, and reconstruction? If so, it could boost the legitimacy of the new system. If not, popular anger could quickly boil over, posing a big challenge to Rodriguez and her masters in Washington.
If you were organizing a soccer match on a day meant to celebrate LGBTQ+ rights, Egypt and Iran would hardly be top of your list for participating nations, would they? After all, both countries de facto criminalize same-sex relations. But tonight they face off in Seattle in a World Cup match that the city’s hosting committee has, independently of FIFA, dubbed the “Pride Match,” with spectators expected to bring rainbow flags into the stands. Both countries complained about the occasion to FIFA when the game schedule was released last year. Football’s governing body distanced itself from the framing of the match, but said it wouldn’t outlaw the appearance of rainbow flags. It’s only the latest in several high profile clashes in sports over celebrating Pride. In the English Premier League in 2024, a player refused to wear a rainbow armband, citing his Muslim beliefs. Meanwhile in Major League Baseball, controversy is swirling around the San Francisco Giants after several players wrote bible verses on their caps to protest the team’s recent Pride Night game.
On the scene: GZERO’s Alex Gibson will actually be at the Egypt-Iran match. We look forward to hearing what he sees there!
On Thursday, Iran fired a drone at a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, hours after releasing a public warning that passing ships must submit a transit request in order to travel freely. The US and Iran last week agreed to reopen the narrow waterway for 60 days as part of a preliminary agreement, giving a respite to months of shipping disruptions that impacted global trade and oil prices. But the pact leaves ample room for interpretation on what the future administration of the Strait will look like. Today’s strike suggests Tehran is interpreting its freedom of action more broadly than the US is, and that the Islamic Republic remains intent on exerting a measure of control over the strait.
This is not Fahrvergnügen. The company is set to axe one-sixth of its work force. The move reflects the tough fortunes of Germany‘s auto sector, which is under pressure from the flood of lower-cost Chinese car exports, as well as the effects of the Iran war and US tariffs.
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France shattered its all-time heat record at 111.7°F, then broke it again the next day. What unexpected debate has the heat wave ignited?
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The Strait of Hormuz may be the world's most important oil chokepoint, but its closure is sending shockwaves through something even more fundamental: the global food supply.
At the 2026 US-Canada Summit in Toronto, hosted by Eurasia Group and RBC, GZERO's Tony Maciulis sat down with Alzbeta Klein, CEO and Director General of the International Fertilizer Association, as part of a larger panel discussing food insecurity, to trace the chain of consequences that begins with blocked fertilizer shipments in the strait and impacts the global food supply months from now.
Klein breaks down several overlapping transmission mechanisms already in motion. Early strikes on LNG plants in Qatar cut gas supplies to India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, forcing those countries to curtail nitrogen fertilizer production while simultaneously driving up gas prices in Europe, where plants have scaled back output. The result: less nitrogen reaching farmers globally, at higher prices, with no compensating rise in commodity prices to offset the cost. The response from farmers is already visible across the globe. Australia has announced a roughly 20% reduction in wheat planting, shifting toward soybeans that require less nitrogen. Klein warns this substitution effect playing out across farming economies worldwide means a meaningful harvest shortfall is already locked in, roughly six to nine months down the line impacting the global food supply.
No one is going to win this race.
At least 164 people were killed and nearly 1,000 were left injured after two powerful earthquakes struck Venezuela on Wednesday evening. The 7.2 and 7.5-magnitude earthquakes were the strongest to hit the country in nearly six decades. A number of buildings collapsed, Caracas’ international airport was damaged, and many are believed to still be trapped under rubble. , The disaster’s effects will be exacerbated by Venezuela’s moribund economy, with a GDP that has shrunk by 80% since 2013. Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodríguez, who came into office after the US ousted strongman Nicolás Maduro from power in January, will likely look for help from Washington, which has eased sanctions in recent months. As a result, the earthquakes could create an opening for more direct US investment in Venezuela when it comes to immediate needs like drinking water infrastructure, as well as long-term reconstruction projects down the road.
Two months after the UAE exited the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Iraq is reportedly threatening to follow suit if the oil cartel doesn’t allow it to significantly increase production. The second-biggest oil producer in OPEC, Baghdad has been hit especially hard by the Iran war, with its government heavily reliant on crude exports for the bulk of its income. As such, it wants some extra cash by selling more oil. Before the war, its OPEC quota was about 4.4 million barrels of oil per day, but its production dropped below 1.5 million in May as ships couldn’t pass the Strait of Hormuz. Its new target: 7 million barrels per day. If Iraq does exit OPEC and increase production, the resulting extra supply would likely bring a short-term decrease in oil prices.
Anthropic, which makes the Claude AI model, says Chinese tech and commerce giant Alibaba has been bombarding Claude with queries as part of a campaign to illicitly train its own models on Claude’s outputs. Alibaba’s aim, it seems, was to achieve the capabilities of Claude’s Mythos model on the cheap. Mythos, you might remember, is so powerful that the US government earlier this month restricted access to it, fearing it could be accessed and used by the military intelligence services of adversary countries. The revelations come amid rising concerns in the intelligence community that the US’s lead over China and others in AI could be narrowing, and that China is seeking to steal American AI knowhow at an industrial scale.
El Niño, the natural climate phenomenon that happens every three to seven years, is back. Researchers are warning that it has formed and could become the strongest on record. If that happens, the consequences for economies and for food security around the world could be severe.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) this week said the risk is particularly high in the Sahel, across Southern Africa, in South and Southeast Asia, and in Central America’s dry corridor and the Caribbean. In some agricultural and grazing areas, there’s a 50% chance of drought in the next few months. El Niño can also bring heavier rains and flooding to other regions, including the Horn of Africa and North America, damaging staple crops.
El Niño develops when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are 0.5º Celsius (0.9º Fahrenheit) higher for several months. Moderate El Niños could push those temperatures up 1º Celsius above the norm. But the biggest El Niño episodes of the past half-century – in 1982, 1997, and 2015 – have seen temperatures jump by 2º Celsius or more. Each of those caused major economic fallout, triggered harvest failures and livestock losses, and unleashed migration in search of food. Between 2015 and 2016 alone, El Niño impacted more than 60 million people and prompted $5 billion in humanitarian appeals across 23 countries.
Other studies have shown that the economic effects of El Niño can top trillions: one recent paper found that the 1997 to 1998 episode caused $5.7 trillion in global losses.
This year could be even more dramatic. Many forecasts say El Niño could increase by an unprecedented 3º Celsius (roughly 5º Fahrenheit).
Of course, forecasts aren’t destiny. There’s a chance El Niño could prove weaker than expected, and the world is better prepared than it was during previous episodes. Weather monitoring is more sophisticated, many governments hold strategic grain reserves, and no one is predicting a large-scale famine. Yet, if the predictions are right, El Niño could also strike at a particularly precarious moment.
More than 80% of the agricultural impacts of El Niño are expected to hit low- and middle-income countries. In the Sahel, food insecurity has deepened for five straight years, while conflicts are raging in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria, and have made it harder to reach vulnerable communities.
Meanwhile in India, El Niño could weaken the summer monsoon, putting rain-fed crops like rice and maize under pressure in a sector that employs 45% of the country’s workforce. Scientists say climate change is making El Niño more erratic, sometimes bringing unpredictable, short, intense bursts of rain and prolonged, damaging dry spells.
The wider geopolitical backdrop isn’t helping. The Iran war’s disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has made fertilizer more expensive and scarce as many farmers prepare to plant. At the same time, dramatic cuts to foreign aid over the last year and a half by the United States and others have weakened a longstanding safety net for poorer countries.
The world has weathered severe El Niños before, but this time, there may be less room for error.
An astonishing heat wave has swept across Europe this week, with France the hardest hit. The country recorded its hottest-ever day on Tuesday, only to break the record again on Wednesday. The extreme heat has led to tragedy: 40 people have drowned nationwide as they seek relief from the unbearable temperatures – many of them teenagers and swimming in unsupervised areas. The heat wave has ignited a political debate over the country’s low-use of air conditioning, as the longstanding stigma around it appears to be subsiding.
