Bolsonaro reacts as Trump scraps Brazil tariffs
November 25, 2025
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Hard Numbers: France’s Bardella would win an election today, Trump’s support among Latinos falls, Fox hunts for a seat in the Bahamas, and Hitler returns
7h
0: There are zero candidates who would beat French far-right leader Jordan Bardella in a head-to-head presidential runoff, according to a new poll. Bardella, heir to Marine Le Pen as head of the National Rally party, would win more than a third of the vote in the first round. Caveat: it’s early – the election won’t be held until 2027. What’s more, the second round could be very close, depending on Bardella’s opponent. For more on the “unraveling” of France, read Ian Bremmer’s recent piece here.
9: US President Donald Trump’s approval among Latino adults has fallen nine points since the start of his presidency to just 27%, according to Pew. In 2024, Trump won nearly half the Latino vote, a record for a GOP candidate. Among Latinos who chose Trump in 2024, his approval is still a robust 81%, but even that is down from a high of 93% when he took office. Trump’s handling of immigration and the economy underline the growing disapproval.
39: Will island politics be a slam-dunk for former Los Angeles Lakers star Rick Fox? The three-time champion, who retired from the NBA in 2004, is taking a jumpshot at public service in the Bahamas, announcing that he’ll run for one of the island nation’s 39 constituencies in the next election. Fox holds Bahamian citizenship through his father.
2: Well, Adolf Hitler is back. The Namibian lawmaker who has that unfortunate name is set to win his second election in a row, representing the constituency of Ompundja in a landslide. Namibia is a former German colony. Hitler, 59, says his father “probably didn’t understand” the meaning of the name, and that it’s “too late” to change it now.
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Pakistan slides deeper into autocracy
7h
Earlier this month, Pakistan’s National Assembly rammed through a controversial constitutional amendment that grants Field Marshal Asim Munir, the country’s de facto leader, lifelong immunity from all crimes.
“What was effectively already de facto military rule has become constitutional,” said Eurasia Group’s South Asia Practice Head Pramit Pal Chaudhuri. “It’s effectively a constitutional coup.”
So how did Pakistan get here? As a country flanked by two longstanding rivals – India and Afghanistan – Pakistan has relied heavily on its military throughout its 80-year history. As a result, military leaders have typically wielded immense political power, controlling the country both directly and indirectly for most, if not all, of Pakistan’s near-80-year existence.
The military faced a challenge, though, in 2018, when the charismatic and telegenic former cricket star Imran Khan won a free and fair election on a populist platform. Although he initially enjoyed the support of “The Establishment,” as the military is known, Khan quickly got into conflict with the generals. One of his most brazen acts against the brass was, in fact, to reassign the head of the country’s spy unit at the time, one Asim Munir.
Khan’s power didn’t last. He was ousted in 2022, and jailed on corruption charges. His party would remain popular, winning the most seats in the 2024 election, but the government – under military influence – refused to seat many of its female and minority candidates, leaving Khan’s party in the minority.
As for Munir, he would get his own back: with Khan out of power and behind bars, the one-time spy chief rose the ranks of the military to become army chief. In May of this year, he seized on the latest Kashmir crisis – which put India and Pakistan on the brink of all-out war for several days – to become Pakistan’s second-ever five-star general, the highest possible military ranking. His latest effort goes a step further, amending the 1973 constitution in a way that opens the path for an outright power grab.
“One of the things in the 1973 constitution is: if you declare martial law, you’re tried for treason,” Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa, a Pakistani military expert at King’s College London, told GZERO. “So if tomorrow [Munir] declares martial law, he cannot be tried for treason.”
Munir’s in charge – what issues does he face? First and foremost, the economy. Pakistan’s economy has been stagnant for 50 years. In the 1970s it was the richest country in South Asia – now it’s one of the poorest. In addition, it has $6.5 billion in outstanding IMF loans, the fifth-most in the world. Many Pakistanis are seeking opportunities abroad.
“If you look at the size of the middle class in Pakistan, it’s effectively shrinking, which is the exact opposite of what you should want in a developing country. Because the taxation system is rising and incomes are not rising,” said Chaudhuri. “If you’re a smart young businessman, you fly to Dubai.”
The field marshal has been cozying up to the Trump administration – an unusual move given Pakistan’s close ties to China – in a bid to sell some of its sizable deposits of rare-earth minerals to the United States.
The other major issue for Munir is the Taliban, the one-time allies of Pakistan who now hold power again next door in Afghanistan. Last month, the two countries had one of their worst border disputes in years, and now Pakistan is bombing the Afghan capital of Kabul in response to a spate of terrorist attacks in Islamabad.
There’s one thing Munir won’t have to worry about. Pakistan’s opposition is toothless right now, Siddiqa said. The opposition has a top-down structure, meaning that with Khan in jail, the party is largely adrift, with weak local representation.
What’s more: the government has been cracking down on dissent.
“Imran Khan is in jail, and there’s nobody else around his party which can actually start a public movement, get people out on the streets,” said Siddiqa. “And also, as a result of the May 9 [conflict with India], the media has been managed. People have been tortured, people have been picked up, disappeared, etc. So with that kind of authoritarianism, people are too scared to come out.”relatively modest purchase.
The other major issue for Munir is the Taliban, the one-time allies of Pakistan who now hold power again next door in Afghanistan: last month, the two countries had one of their worst border disputes in years, and now Pakistan is bombing the Afghan capital of Kabul in response to a spate of terrorist attacks in Islamabad.
There’s one thing Munir won’t have to worry about. Pakistan’s opposition is toothless right now, Siddiqa says. The opposition has a top-down structure, meaning that with Khan in jail, the party is largely adrift, with weak local representation.
What’s more: the government has been cracking down on dissent.
“Imran Khan is in jail, and there’s nobody else around his party which can actually start a public movement, get people out on the streets,” said Siddiqa. “And also, as a result of May 9, the media has been managed. People have been tortured, people have been picked up, disappeared, etc. So with that kind of authoritarianism, people are too scared to come out.”
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What We’re Watching: Russia and Ukraine negotiations continue, Trump and Xi make a springtime date, Sudan’s rebels declare unilateral ceasefire
7h
Ukraine and Russia still worlds apart as peace talks continue
Moscow said that it would reject any ceasefire deal that doesn’t meet its core demands for more territory, the large-scale disarmament of Ukraine, and a ban on Ukrainian NATO membership. The Kremlin’s cold water comes after Ukraine was all smiles following a fresh round of ceasefire talks with the US yesterday. While the White House seems keen to strike a deal soonest, the two sides are still worlds apart on what they are willing to agree to – Washington has now abandoned its Thanksgiving “deadline” for a deal. Today, Russian and American negotiators will be meeting in the UAE to see if they can narrow the gaps between the two peace plans, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling for a meeting with US President Donald Trump later this week.
Was Taiwan the subject of US-China call?
After talking on the phone Monday, Trump said he will be meeting with Xi Jinping IRL in Beijing in April and that Xi will come to the US for a state visit later in the year. While the White House said that the call had been “very positive” and mainly focused on trade, Chinese state media reported that the call had focused on Taiwan, saying Xi had communicated to Trump that returning Taiwan to return to Chinese control was “integral.” For more on the impact of the US-China rivalry, see our recent piece on how the trade war has hit the US heartland.
Sudan paramilitaries agree to one-sided ceasefire
Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitaries on Monday announced a three month “humanitarian ceasefire” in their brutal, two-and-a-half-year long civil war with the Sudanese military. The plan was brokered by the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt. Good news, maybe, but there’s a huge catch: the RSF announced the move after the army rejected it because of the involvement of the UAE, which has faced persistent accusations that it backs the RSF. The conflict has killed tens of thousands of people and driven 14 million from their homes. Both sides are accused of widespread war crimes.
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Is Trump’s trade strategy backfiring abroad?
7h
In this “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer tackles a growing question: How is the Trump administration performing as the year wraps up?
He says the strongest pushback is coming “on the international front,” where Trump's leverage is proving weaker than expected.
China is the clearest example. After aggressive tariffs and export controls, Beijing “called America’s raise” and now has Trump moving toward approving advanced Nvidia chip sales in exchange for easier access to critical minerals.
Brazil is also pushing back, despite sweeping US tariffs tied to former president Bolsonaro’s imprisonment.
The big wild card: a looming Supreme Court ruling that could limit Trump’s authority on tariffs.
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Toppling Maduro would be "the easy part" says former Ambassador
10h
Former US Ambassador to Venezuela James Story warns that removing Maduro would be the easy part—what comes next is the real challenge.
In this clip from Ian Bremmer’s interview with former US Ambassador to Venezuela James Story, the two discuss the risks and realities of a possible regime change in Caracas. While the Maduro government is increasingly isolated and unpopular, Story cautions that the collapse of the regime would only be the beginning of a much larger crisis.
“For 25 years, the institutions in that country have been systematically destroyed,” Story says, adding that Venezuela has become a failed state teeming with criminal organizations like the ELN, Hezbollah, and the Tren de Aragua. Any transitional government, he argues, would have to rely on a military that has long been complicit in repression and corruption. “The easy part would be getting rid of Maduro,” Story says. “The hard work happens after that.”
Drawing on lessons from past US interventions in Iraq, Libya, and Haiti, Story urges careful planning and warns against dismantling institutions too quickly. If the US plays a role in removing Maduro, he says, it must also take responsibility for what comes next: “You break it, you fix it.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
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In this episode of Tools and Weapons, Microsoft Vice Chair and President Brad Smith sits down with Ed Policy, President and CEO of the Green Bay Packers, to discuss how purpose-driven leadership and innovation are shaping the future of one of the world’s most iconic sports franchises. Ed shares how technology and community-focused initiatives, from Titletown Tech to health and safety innovations on the field, are transforming not just the game of football, but the economy and culture of Green Bay itself. He explains how combining strategic vision with investment in local startups is keeping talent in the Midwest and creating opportunities that extend far beyond Lambeau Field.
Subscribe and find new episodes monthly, wherever you listen to podcasts.
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down the controversy around Trump's 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan.
He says the proposal was “mostly drafted by the Russians” and loaded with “complete non-starters” for Ukraine, from ceding more territory to reducing troop levels and granting blanket amnesty for war crimes.
Ian explains that while allies publicly “appreciate the American effort,” he notes that few are buying the plan’s substance. With Europe divided and Russia sensing momentum, he warns that “the war is not close to over,” and that the next phase will likely be shaped by battlefield realities, not diplomacy.
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Hard Numbers: Israel assassinates Hezbollah commander, DOGE gets DOGE’d, Ethiopian volcano erupts, Not much to show for COP30
November 24, 2025
5: The Israeli military assassinated a senior Hezbollah commander in an airstrike on the Lebanese capital of Beirut on Sunday. The attack killed at least five people overall. Lebanon’s president lambasted the strike. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the commander was trying to help Hezbollah regroup.
8: DOGE has been DOGE’d, with a White House official declaring that the Department of Government Efficiency – which, under Tesla owner Elon Musk, tried to slash government spending – no longer exists. The department still had eight months left before the end of its charter.
12,000: A long-dormant Ethiopian volcano, Hayli Gubbi, erupted for the first time in nearly 12,000 years, sending ash 9 miles high and drifting across the Red Sea. No casualties were reported, but ash is strangling the local vegetation and threatening local herders’ livelihoods.
1.5: As COP30 comes to a close, the conference concludes with an agreement projecting that the world will likely exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming in the next five years, with few promises made to stop it. The agreement did not mention fossil fuel curtailment, and instead focused on climate change adaptation, in a sign that countries are prioritizing energy security over climate commitments.
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What We’re Watching: Russia-Ukraine peace deal, Rough weekend for Brazil, Mass school abductions in Nigeria
November 24, 2025
Is a Russia-Ukraine peace deal imminent?
After facing backlash that the US’s first 28-point peace deal was too friendly towards Russia, American and Ukrainian negotiators drafted a new 19-point plan on Monday. The talks nearly fell apart before they began, but both sides reported ultimately that the meeting felt “positive.” However, whether this gets Ukraine and Russia any closer to a ceasefire remains to be seen. The new draft apparently bears little resemblance to the original plan – meaning Moscow may not agree. It also does not address the most controversial issues like territorial questions and the future of NATO–Russia–US relations, leaving them for Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky to resolve before Washington’s Thursday deadline.
A rough weekend for Brazil’s Bolsonaro
On Friday, US President Donald Trump gave Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a boost – and thereby hurt former President Jair Bolsonaro – by cutting tariffs on several Brazilian foodstuffs, including beef, coffee, and fruit (see more here). But things would get worse for Bolsonaro: Police arrested him on Saturday over fears that he would try to escape house arrest to avoid the 27-year sentence he’s serving for plotting a failed coup. The Supreme Court believed the right-wing leader was tampering with his ankle monitor, so granted the arrest. Trump had placed 50% tariffs on Brazil over its treatment of Bolsonaro, but his priority appears to be shifting.
Another spate of mass school abductions rock Nigeria
Several Nigerian states have shut their schools following a spate of mass abductions over the weekend, adding yet another dilemma to the mounting security crisis in Africa’s most-populous country. The most notable abduction took place on Friday in Niger State, where gunmen kidnapped 315 children and 12 teachers – 50 of the children have since escaped. President Bola Tinubu announced afterwards that he would recruit another 30,000 police officers. With the Islamist militant group iSWAP sowing violence in the north, violence burgeoning between farmers and herders in the central Benue state, and these latest abductions, Tinubu’s to-do list is getting long and difficult.
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Tensions between Tokyo and Beijing hit a boiling point last Friday when China accused Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of “a grave violation of international law.” Her alleged crime? Statements that a Chinese attack or blockade of Taiwan could threaten Japan’s survival and be met with military intervention. The ensuing diplomatic crisis has not just upended relations between China and Japan, but threatens to ensnare the United States in a geopolitical showdown in the Pacific.
Why were Taikachi’s comments so incendiary? Takaichi used the phrase, “situation threatening Japan’s survival,” to describe potential Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. That’s a specific legal designation under Japan's 2015 security legislation that allows the prime minister to deploy the military in self-defense.
This breaks with Tokyo’s traditional ambiguity on the use of force in the case of invasion, and signals publicly that it would stand with Washington in a crisis – something China considers a direct challenge to its sovereignty. Article V of the US-Japan security treaty obliges the US to defend Japan if it is attacked.
What has China done in response? Beijing has suspended seafood imports, discouraged Chinese tourists from traveling to Japan, and allowed mass cancellations of flights and tours without penalty. Concerts by Japanese artists in China have been abruptly pulled from venues and cruise ships that once filled ports in Kyushu are now being rerouted to South Korea. The goal is to hit Japan where it hurts: tourism has helped boost the economy post-Covid, and many small cities rely heavily on Chinese visitors.
On the diplomatic front, Beijing sent a letter Friday to UN Secretary-General António Guterres urging Japan to “deeply reflect upon its historical crimes,” a reference to Japan’s invasion of China during World War II, and calling on Tokyo to “retract its erroneous remarks.” On Sunday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi posted a statement to the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s website that Japan’s leadership has “said things they shouldn’t have said, and crossed a red line that should not have been touched.”
How is Japan reacting? Tokyo is not taking back Takaishi’s words, saying instead that Beijing is misinterpreting them. According to senior Japanese government spokeswoman Maki Kobayashi, “The claim our country has altered its position is entirely baseless” and Tokyo remains “committed to dialogue” with Beijing.
What’s China’s goal? Beijing hopes to frustrate Takaichi’s pledge to accelerate Japan’s military buildup and raise defense spending to 2% of GDP by fiscal year 2025, two years ahead of the target set by her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba. According to Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore, China is seeking “to box Takaichi in and put her on the back foot early on – so she will be more reluctant to push forward on Japan’s investment in defense.”
But so far, the public is backing the prime minister. According to David Boling, Eurasia Group’s director of Japan and Asia Trade, “Takaichi’s approval ratings are very high – even climbing higher in some polls. The Japanese public has a very negative view of China, and China’s extreme response will only reinforce that view.”
Could Japan’s position deter an invasion of Taiwan – or accelerate it? If China believes that a Taiwan crisis would trigger a US-led coalition response, Beijing could escalate its preparations to get ahead of Japan’s planned military buildup. Beijing is already conducting invasion drills using its “shadow navy,” and Chinese coast guard ships have increased their presence around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, putting the Japanese air force and navy on high alert. That could increase the odds of a takeover – or an unintended encounter that could spiral into an international crisis.
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Behind every scam lies a story — and within every story, a critical lesson. Anatomy of a Scam, takes you inside the world of modern fraud — from investment schemes to impersonation and romance scams. You'll meet the investigators tracking down bad actors and learn about the innovative work being done across the payments ecosystem to protect consumers and businesses alike.
Watch the first episode of Mastercard's five-part documentary, 'Anatomy of a Scam,' here.
If the US does intervene in Venezuela, former US Ambassador James Story explains why the real battle begins after boots hit the ground.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with Ambassador James Story, former US envoy to Venezuela, to examine one of the most urgent questions in US‑Latin America policy: could Washington go to war with Caracas? With US naval assets and aircraft carriers now stationed off the Venezuelan coast and President Trump declining to rule out deploying troops, Story says regime change is only the beginning.
“The easy part would be getting rid of Maduro,” Story says. “The hard work happens after that.” With lawlessness, paramilitary control, narco‑trafficking networks and a collapsed economy, Venezuela is broken. Story warns: “How do you trust any part of a government whose sole purpose was keeping a criminal organization functioning?”
Even if opposition leaders like María Corina Machado or Edmundo González take power, how do you rebuild faith in a government that, for decades, served only to protect a criminal enterprise? “You’re going to need the military,” Story says, “but it’s the same military that’s been keeping Maduro in power.”
The bigger question? If the US plays a role in removing Maduro, who takes the lead on what comes next—and how much are Americans really willing to take on?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
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The Trump administration is ramping up pressure on Venezuela, with the USS Gerald R. Ford deployed to the region, CIA covert operations approved by the White House, and strikes on suspected narco‑trafficking vessels attributed to Caracas. Many analysts now see regime change as the ultimate goal. On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer and former US Ambassador James Story game out what a US intervention in Venezuela might look like—and more importantly, how the US would manage the aftermath.
Story points out that while removing Nicolás Maduro may sound feasible, rebuilding Venezuela’s institutions, economy and social fabric would be far harder. “The country is a failed state,” he says. “You’re going to need the military to help you secure peace while you rebuild.” As Washington talks of sanction relief and diplomatic pressure, Story asks: does the US have the capability, resources or will to stay for the long haul?
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published
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