While the average American household has spent $1,100 more on gas and diesel since the start of the Iran war, oil companies have been profiting from higher fuel prices. The same 50 US oil and gas companies made less than $47 billion in profits over the same period in 2025. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump boasted that the US was making a “freaking fortune” from oil at a rally last week. Polls show most Americans feel the opposite.
Christine Lagarde announced yesterday that she will step down as head of the European Central Bank (ECB) eight months earlier than planned. Lagarde’s early exit will allow French President Emmanuel Macron to play a role in choosing her successor before he leaves office next year. The move will prevent presidential frontrunner Marine Le Pen from having a say in the decision – the second such appointment a Macron successor has lost out on. European leaders are also rushing to finalize a seven-year budget by December, ahead of a potential Le Pen victory. Le Pen, for her part, pledged to dramatically cut France’s contributions to the EU budget, and has pushed for the ECB to intervene to bring down France’s debt costs – moves that will be harder once the EU budget is approved and the ECB chair is replaced.
This weekend the US flips its clocks back by an hour in the annual ritual of ending “Daylight Saving Time.” The modern practice of extending summer days by moving clocks ahead by an hour dates back to World War I, when Germany and Austria-Hungary did so to save energy. The US quickly followed. But these days, most Americans find it annoying. So a bipartisan group of US lawmakers, backed by President Donald Trump, wants to scrap the twice-yearly time change and make DST permanent. The tradeoff would be longer winter mornings, and school safety advocates, the ski industry, and even sleep medicine experts strongly oppose it. Trump, frustrated, recently doxxed a prominent Republican opponent of the measure, but there’s little chance a bill to make DST permanent will get debated before next year. Only a third of countries in the world have DST, and most are in Europe or North America. What do you think about DST? Let us know here — include your name/location, and we may publish your response.
Three blockchain analytics companies have said North Korea is likely behind a $6 billion crypto hack of Binance, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency exchange platform, marking the largest cyber heist in history. Binance says it has blocked some of the stolen funds from being transferred and has begun recovering some of the money, though it remains unclear how much. The company has blamed TraderTraitor, an elite North Korean state-sponsored hacking group. Cyberhacking has become the country’s most lucrative source of revenue in recent years, replacing coal and textile exports that have been hampered by global sanctions. Its first major attack came in 2014, when hackers targeted Sony Pictures ahead of the release of “The Interview,” a comedy mocking North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Since then, North Korea has significantly expanded its capabilities. Last year, North Korean hackers reportedly stole $2 billion in cryptocurrency, accounting for roughly 60% of total global theft.
Poppy production surged dramatically in Afghanistan despite the Taliban banning its cultivation in 2022. Why are Afghan farmers taking the risk of growing it illegally?
Take the quiz to see if you guessed correctly!
Last week, the US’s fertility rate hit a record low: CDC data for 2025 showed that for every 1000 women aged 15 to 44, only 53 gave birth each year, down from 54 the previous year. The decline continues a decades-long decline.
But the US is not alone. In much of the world, fertility rates are in freefall. Almost every developed country today has an aging population, putting a huge strain on social spending and pension systems, and fewer people paying the taxes to support them.
Many governments have pursued creative ways to encourage people to have more children, some as extreme as offering cash bonuses of $55,000 per child, with mixed results. But what about focusing on the other end of life? Some governments are reframing what it means to grow old, trying ways to keep people employed longer and contributing to rather than drawing welfare resources.
Incentivizing later retirement. Life expectancy has been climbing around the world for well over a century. As people live longer, they’re also staying healthier longer, according to the World Health Organization. Some countries with aging populations are trying to capitalize on their so-called “silver economies” and keep people in the workforce longer.
In 2004, Japan, the first country to become ‘super-aged,’ meaning more than 20% of its population is over 65, began incentivizing workers to stay in the workforce until at least 65. Then in 2022, it introduced a policy that permanently reduced benefits for those who took their state pension early. As of September, it’s home to over 100,000 centenarians.
Singapore, which became super-aged in September, offers careers and employment support to those over 50 and, since 2020, has run a program that gives some employers grants of $2,500 Singapore dollars ($1,951 USD) for every employee they hire or retain over 60.
But these efforts aren’t sustainable long term, explained Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst for China and Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group – demand on the welfare state will eventually outpace these measures. “Where it becomes an overwhelming disadvantage is [when] the costs for the government of servicing this aging population begin to overwhelm the revenue that’s coming in,” Chan said. For example, more than a third of Japan’s 2025 budget went to social spending, reflecting the high cost of an aging population.
Raising the retirement age. France, Germany, the UK, and China have all introduced plans in recent years to raise the retirement age. Germany is targeting a retirement age of 70 by the 2090s, up from 67 now. Meanwhile, Denmark, Estonia, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Portugal have tied or are tying their retirement age to national life expectancy – measures that can be effective in the short term.
“To a certain degree, if you’re extending the working life of the person who would have retired at 55 but is now working till 60, then that kind of solves the problem in the short term,” said Chan.
That’s not always popular: when France proposed raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 in 2023, hundreds of thousands took to the streets to protest. Germany and Denmark also saw protests over increases to the retirement age.
The AI problem. But even as countries grapple with aging populations, many advanced economies will face another workforce disruption: AI. Research shows that AI is dramatically changing the labor market and dampening entry-level hiring. People aged 22 to 25 in easily automated careers are now employed 19% less than their less AI-exposed counterparts.
“You’re going to have a whole generation of people that are going to have to reskill, rebrand, find some sort of productive ends to their time – to [be] contributing members of society while living in this AI future where there are fewer jobs,” Chan said. Down the road, this could mean fewer people contributing tax revenue, and more people needing social welfare.
What’s next? Not every country is seeing a fertility decline. Many countries in South Asia and Africa still have growing populations, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. By 2030, the World Economic Forum estimates that 40% of the world’s young people will be African. Many of these regions also struggle with underemployment: Niger, for example, will need to create 650,000 new jobs each year for the next 30 years to meet demand from its growing population – a target it is unlikely to hit.
That leaves an enormous opportunity: a region with a booming young population eager for work. The question is whether governments can turn that demographic divide into an opportunity before the costs of aging become too hard to bear.
As Afghan farmers struggle with high operating costs and low crop prices, more are taking a risk by illegally growing poppy to feed their families. Poppy is a key ingredient in opium – which can then be used to make heroin – and Afghanistan has long been a major producer. Before the Taliban banned cultivation in 2022, the country supplied more than 80% of the world’s opium. Now, farmers hide poppies among tall cereal crops, harvest them secretly, and sell them on the black market. The surge could have consequences far beyond Afghanistan: a growing supply could drive down drug prices across Asia and Europe.
Alaska has launched a criminal probe into Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola’s campaign after The Times revealed a plan to recruit people with the same name as her Republican opponent, incumbent Dan Sullivan, to run for office and confuse voters. The ballot for next Tuesday’s midterms already features Peltola, Sullivan, and another unrelated Dan Sullivan. The Sullivan Search was revealed just days after President Donald Trump questioned the legitimacy of the two-Sullivan ballot. Whether or not the probe finds a crime, the Peltola campaign’s approach undermines the spirit of a fair vote. That will fuel broader campaigns, led mostly by Trump allies, to question the midterms’ legitimacy. Polls show Democrats likely to retake the House, with a shot at retaking the Senate. Fifty-five percent of Americans polled think the vote will be legitimate, down more than 10 points since 2022.
Forty-eight African delegations, including twenty heads of state, are in Moscow this week for a summit with Russia. Russia hopes to expand its influence on a continent it has spent years competing for against China, the US, and Europe, even claiming it can be a “better partner than the colonial West.” But what can Russia offer that others cannot? For one, security. Many African governments struggle to contain insurgencies, and Russia lends military support through its state-funded paramilitary force, Africa Corps (formerly the Wagner Group). This is especially important in the Sahel, where the Africa Corps have helped military governments battle Islamic insurgents. Then there’s energy. As countries face rising fuel prices due to the Iran war, Russia is pitching its nuclear-technology expertise. At the summit, Moscow unveiled plans to develop floating nuclear power plants for coastal African countries, potentially offering a new source of electricity while deepening their dependence on Russian technology.
Albania has announced fines to crack down on anti-government protests that have spread across the country in recent months. Demonstrators can now be fined more than $6,000 for participating in protests that turn violent, even if they don’t personally contribute to the violence itself. That’s no small cost in Albania: the average pre-tax monthly salary is just over $1,000. Demonstrations began in June against plans to build a luxury resort on a nature reserve, backed by US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, but have since ballooned into protests over perceived government corruption, a struggling healthcare system, and a lack of opportunity for young people. Protesters have also called for the resignation of four-term Prime Minister Edi Rama. The crackdown comes as cash-strapped governments across Europe try to respond to a wave of youth-led protests. Rama said the new fines were inspired by a French bill that made protesters liable for damage they caused.
For Gen Z, changing jobs can mean a bigger paycheck. Younger workers continue to see the largest gains from switching, offering a glimpse into how career mobility is evolving across generations.
On Sunday, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returned home after ten months in exile.
In the time since she last set foot on Venezuelan soil, the United States arrested authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism charges and installed Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president. As the Trump administration slowly negotiated with Rodríguez to hold elections, it made a flurry of oil deals, including one that gives the US the rights to more than 65 billion barrels and involves a Venezuelan businessman under investigation for money laundering. The country was also struck by two devastating earthquakes that killed thousands. Machado, meanwhile, gifted her Nobel Peace Prize to President Trump, in an effort to facilitate her return and Venezuela's transition to elections, in which she would expect to be heavily favored to win.
Much has changed since Machado left. But now that she's back, the big question is: what is the timeline for Venezuela to hold its first free-and-fair elections in over a decade? And does the Trump administration care? The answers (possibly 2027 but more likely 2028; and it does, while not making it a priority) reveal as much about the future of Venezuela as they do about the Donroe Doctrine in Latin America.
Shortly after removing Maduro from power, the US embarked on a strategy of simultaneously rebuilding Venezuelan oil infrastructure and reforming its political institutions. Or as Trump said at the time: "We're going to run it, fix it. We'll have elections at the right time," but also: "We're going to take our oil back." On both fronts, the Trump administration has had considerable success: coercing Rodríguez into reforms to Venezuela's Supreme Court and opening the oil industry to foreign investment (headlined by a $7 billion investment from Chevron), which has already enabled a 17.6% spike in production after years of decline.
At the UN General Assembly, Trump made these commercial motivations clear in announcing "to the victor belong the spoils." After removing Maduro in violation of international law and announcing a desire to profit from the endeavor before heads of state from around the world, the US made clear that its priority was business first, rule of law and democracy second.
That put Machado in an awkward position after the US intervention as she lobbied the Trump administration to help her return to Venezuela – without much success. After she reached the country on Sunday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio voiced public support for Machado's return, but the administration had long privately discouraged it. And while the US State Department has laid out a plan for the return of democracy, the benchmarks that must be met before elections can be held are steep – including the formation of a new Supreme Court and National Electoral Council, the restructuring of Venezuela's enormous national debt, and the declaration of a vacancy in the presidency, followed by elections six months later. Achieving those goals won't be fast, meaning an election is more likely to arrive in 2028 than 2027.
It's in Rubio's interest to ensure a democratic transition – as a key accomplishment that could burnish his credentials for a 2028 presidential run or preserve his political future in Florida, home to many Venezuelan expats. But he's one actor in an administration more focused on business opportunities and other foreign policy challenges, as the US readies for more potential strikes on Iran after the midterms.
Machado is in a tight spot. If she galvanizes public demonstrations in favor of elections, she risks drawing the ire of both Rodríguez and Trump, which could set back the cause and her political career. She also needs to maintain credibility with the Venezuelan people, which means criticizing the potentially exploitative oil deals – but making sure she directs those attacks towards the incumbent Venezuelan government, not the Trump administration (whose support she needs).
She will likely start campaigning across Venezuela but without any certainty of an election, while facing threats to her safety. The latter is nothing new for the Nobel winner, who lived in hiding for extended periods during Maduro's tenure, but the long run-up to elections is concerning in an unstable country with a history of political violence. The State Department's strategy of cautiously rebuilding Venezuela's institutions first is legitimate – it takes infrastructure and planning to have free-and-fair elections to replace a government that has systematically rigged them – but the slow pace of democratization carries its own risks.
To the Trump administration's critics, it's hard to take the gradual strategy in good faith amid the backdrop of Trump's accusation that Brazil's election on Sunday (in which incumbent President Lula da Silva came back to defeat the more Trump-friendly Flávio Bolsonaro) was "rigged" – it wasn't – and empowerment of businessman Alejandro Betancourt, who is currently under criminal investigation, in Venezuela's oil sector. To the administration's supporters, Machado's return is a positive milestone, as the State Department reforms the Venezuelan system to allow her to run for the presidency – while it directs more of its focus on America-first policy priorities: combating drug trafficking (made easier with Rodríguez than Maduro) and leveraging commercial opportunities.
At its core, that is the Donroe Doctrine: a United States that acts unilaterally in its own interest in its hemisphere, without second-guessing international law or norms around sovereignty. There is an interest in promoting democracy, but US-friendly leaders are the more pressing goal. (And, as Brazil showed Trump, those don't always come from elections.) The Donroe Doctrine has likewise led to the American pressure campaign against Cuba, which has involved a thus far unsuccessful search for an equivalent to Delcy Rodríguez in order to manage an aspirational democratic transition: a unilateral move to install a more palatable head of state who can eventually preside over the establishment of a new political order.
The path forward for Machado and Venezuelan democracy is uncertain. There are going to be elections eventually. The prospects for Venezuela returning to a functional representative government are the best they have been in decades. But the transition to democracy is being slow-played by an administration that has deprioritized it, has only two years left in its term, and is experiencing a collapse of political support in the US. Building a sustainable democratic model is difficult in the best circumstances – building it in this environment... well, let's see.
Machado's return is a step forward. Now, Venezuela's democratic institutions must return from their exile.
In this ‘ask ian,’ Ian Bremmer says recent elections around the world point to a common trend: voters are increasingly unhappy with their governments as inflation, security concerns and economic pressures shape political outcomes.
Ian cautions against seeing recent results as a broad victory for either the left or the right. Instead, “a lot of people continue to be really angry with their existing governments,” with high turnout reflecting growing interest in politics. In Brazil, Ian says affordability and concerns over social benefits helped drive Lula’s victory, while in Serbia, young voters rallied against a government they saw as unaccountable.
Ian argues that this sentiment is spreading across countries, including Europe and Israel, and could be reflected in upcoming US midterm elections.
Israelis turned out in droves on Tuesday for an election billed as one of the most consequential in the country’s history – and they still don’t know who won.
About 77% of Israel’s eligible voters cast ballots, the highest in more than two decades, to decide whether to give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition another term or hand power to a loosely organized opposition led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot.
Most votes are counted, and no clear winner has emerged. As it stands, results show that Netanyahu’s bloc will likely win about 54 seats, Eisenkot’s about 48, and the two Arab parties are expected to win the remaining 18 or 19 seats. With no clear winner, Israel looks to be in political gridlock.
What happens next? First, more vote counting. Official results will likely not be complete until Friday. But then comes the complex task of forming a government.
In Israel’s political system, a party needs support from at least 61 lawmakers to govern. Once the results are finalized, the Israeli president will task the candidate most likely to command a majority with forming a government. But both Netanyahu and Eisenkot face hurdles to creating a majority. They need agreements – and potentially to make significant policy concessions – with other parties, but deep ideological differences make that difficult.
That could leave Arab parties with a pivotal role. Arab citizens make up roughly a fifth of Israel’s population, and they turned out in record numbers on Tuesday, with turnout in most Arab-majority cities up five percentage points from 2022. The two main Arab-led parties, Ra’am, a conservative Islamist party, and the Joint List, a broad alliance of center and center-left Arab parties, could win a potential record 19 seats, up from 10 in the outgoing parliament.
But neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot is eager to work with them. For Netanyahu, Arab party leaders rallied supporters to oust him, and joining forces with them would risk alienating his far-right coalition partners. For Eisenkot, he would likely have to compromise on security, foreign policy, and policing in Arab cities to gain their support, potentially driving away his own allies.
“There is a bold scenario where Eisenkot will present a minority government to get a vote of confidence in the Knesset,” says Arie Kacowicz, professor of international relations at Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “But he needs the active support of at least one, if not two, Arab parties.”
If neither side forms a majority, Israel could head to another election, with Netanyahu remaining in power as a caretaker prime minister in the meantime. It wouldn’t be unprecedented: Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022 because of a similar deadlock.
What does this mean beyond Israel? A prolonged political stalemate could complicate Israel’s response to its foreign policy challenges – from Iran, to Hezbollah in Lebanon, to Hamas in Gaza. Netanyahu might remain in office, but as a caretaker prime minister with limited authority and certainly no mandate to govern. That could make major diplomatic and security decisions harder, particularly as Israel tries to repair strained relationships abroad with Europe and other former allies. Regardless of who, if anyone, forms a government, they might be distracted by domestic politics and worried their coalition might fall apart.
For now, Israelis have cast their ballots. But they may have to wait a while to learn who will lead them.
Ship owner Villa Vie Residences told passengers the cruise would end its journey early in Cambodia because refueling costs have jumped more than 300% since the start of the Iran war. Some passengers have now flown home, while others are still waiting in the port city of Sihanoukville, Cambodia. The ship, Odyssey, was one of the few designed for long-term residency, with some passengers planning to live on the ship for decades. It first began its journey in October 2024.
Bem-vindo a Miami! Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-winger who lost Brazil’s presidential runoff to incumbent lefty Lula on Sunday, landed in the Magic City with his family on Wednesday morning. Bolsonaro, who is under investigation for money laundering in Brazil, fled after Brazilian police demanded his passport late Sunday. The US has granted him political asylum. Bolsonaro, along with prominent Trump-aligned voices in the US, rejects the election results and says the legal charges against him are “lawfare.” Harboring Bolsonaro will complicate Trump’s relationship with Latin America’s largest economy, where Lula will begin his fourth term as president in January. But with Bolsonaro’s brother Eduardo also in US exile, while their father Jair remains under house arrest for plotting a coup to overturn his own 2022 re-election loss to Lula, this could also allow other prominent rightwing voices in Brazil to eclipse the Bolsonaros as leaders of the conservative opposition.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre held a rare phone call yesterday with Vladimir Putin to discuss the war in Ukraine, breaking with Europe’s policy of not holding direct talks with Russia. The two countries, which border Russia, emphasized that they were not speaking on behalf of Europe – but said that ending the war required direct discussions. However, other European leaders, including Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen and Sweden’s Ulf Kristersson, criticized the three-way call, saying that it risked dividing Europe’s front. Nothing concrete appears to have come out of the conversation. As the four-year war drags on, the call comes at a precarious moment: talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine are due to take place in Abu Dhabi next month, while US President Donald Trump takes an increasingly favorable stance on Russia, clearing the path for the US to buy millions of dollars of Russian diesel earlier this month.
South Africa deployed 500 soldiers to the city of Durban yesterday as xenophobic violence continues to rock the country. Since the beginning of the year, protesters have taken to the streets across South Africa, blaming migrants for the country’s staggering unemployment rates, one of the highest in the world. Demonstrations have frequently turned violent, with a foreign national beaten to death during a march in Durban last week. Anti-immigrant violence has escalated to the point that several African nations, including Mozambique, Ghana, and Nigeria, have repatriated thousands of citizens over safety concerns. President Cyril Ramaphosa linked the recent wave of violence to misinformation surrounding a recent court ruling. Some had interpreted the decision as granting undocumented immigrants citizenship and voting rights, raising tensions ahead of next week’s municipal elections.
So many summits, so little substance. Or is that really the case?
Three major UN environmental summits are occurring late this year. What do they actually accomplish?
On the ground at COP17 in Yerevan, Armenia, Eurasia Group's María José Valverde looks beyond the speeches and negotiations at the practical initiatives these conferences can produce: funding Indigenous-led conservation, researching cattle that produce less methane, and attracting investment to restore degraded farmland.
“These conferences can do real good,” she explains. But with climate change and nature loss accelerating, can those individual successes add up fast enough?
