Questions about electability have long dominated American politics – from whether John F. Kennedy could become president as a Catholic, to whether the country was ready for a Black man to serve as commander in chief. At this moment, the answer appears to be based on policy. According to new polling from Politico and polling company Public First, policy is by far the biggest deciding factor for voters.
What is electability? At face value, it’s about whether voters “believe a candidate has a good chance of getting elected,” said Lonna Atkeson, who researches political behavior and sits on the MIT Data and Election Science board.
Take Kamala Harris, the US’s first female vice president, for example. Reflecting on her 2024 presidential bid, Harris wrote in her memoir, “107 Days,” that she wanted then-Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who is gay, as her running mate. Ultimately, she decided that it was “too big” of a demographic risk. Her thinking was clear: America could not handle a Black woman and a gay man on the same ticket. She chose Minnesota governor Tim Walz instead.
Politico’s data suggests voters now focus more on policy than on candidate identity. In head-to-head matchups with basic candidate information, voters overwhelmingly chose based on a candidate’s political ideology rather than their demographics.
Any remaining trace of these factors is often offset by resources or party support. “Identity traits [like] age, gender, sexual orientation matter less when a candidate has sufficient money, resources, and compelling policy platforms,” Atkeson said.
Why? One reason is that America is becoming more diverse, and with that, more accepting of others. Pew polling in March found that 62% of Americans say that diversity has a positive impact on American culture. They’re also becoming less homophobic and less sexist in their personal beliefs as time goes on.
For example, when Jesse Jackson first ran for president in 1984, skeptics argued that a Black candidate could never win the White House. Less than three decades later, Barack Obama did. At the time, CNN, PBS, CBS, and Pew ran polls asking if America was ready for a Black president. In one poll, 68% said yes.
That shift is visible in both parties. Democrats have elected more diverse candidates than their Republican counterparts for decades, but Republicans have elevated more candidates from a wide range of backgrounds in recent years: in 2023, the Republican primary had the most diverse field in the party’s history.
In Minnesota, Republican Lisa Demuth is running for governor, and if elected, she would become not only the first Black and first female governor of the state, but the first Black female governor in US history. Byron Donalds is running for Governor in Florida. And a gay man, Scott Bessent, is serving as Treasury Secretary in a Republican president’s cabinet.
That doesn’t mean identity no longer matters. Polling showed that while policy is voters’ first concern, identity can still matter, especially when it comes to religion.
In Michigan this year, Abdul El-Sayed’s religion became a target of Republican attacks during the campaign. Mike Rogers, his Republican opponent, claimed that El-Sayed was funded by “terrorist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood.” New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani offers another example. During his campaign last year, he faced widespread Islamophobia. But he still won – with a platform built around popular issues like affordability and tackling the city’s soaring costs of living. Voters are not blind to identity, but a salient message can matter more.
“I think that voters are craving candidates that can tell them what they're for, not necessarily what they're against,” said Jill Barkley, a director at Emerge, a political organization that trains women who want to run for office as Democratic candidates.
The age issue. Another characteristic still on voters’ minds: age. Candidates’ age and calls for generational change have become major issues in American politics in recent years. The current Congress is the oldest in modern history, and both Donald Trump, age 80, and Joe Biden, now 83, have received heavy scrutiny about their health.
This was reflected in Politico’s polling: candidates over 70 were almost 10% less likely to be picked than candidates under 50.
At the same time, incumbents also have an advantage, even if they’re older. In Massachusetts, 80-year-old Senator Ed Markey beat 47-year-old challenger Seth Moulton in the Democratic primary, winning 65% of the vote. This was a clear case of identity coming second in voters’ calculations. Markey’s progressive credentials, such as co-authoring the Green New Deal, enjoyed enough support in the state and helped him convince voters that age was not an issue. He’s the favorite to win in November.
A whole host of tight races are looming in the upcoming midterms, with 22 House seats and 7 Senate seats considered toss-ups. Ultimately, no single demographic profile is ideal. Instead, “the ideal candidate is someone who… has a clear understanding of how running for office and serving in office would better people's lives,” said Barkley.
