In memory of Moose
October 22, 2026
In this special edition of “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer reflects on the life and passing of his beloved dog, Moose.
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Why the Latin American right is turning to Israel
6h
“We hope and believe that 2026 will be the year of Latin America,” Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar proclaimed late last year.
So far, it looks like things are going his way. Even as Israel grows increasingly isolated on the world stage, there is one region where a whole swath of newly elected leaders can’t seem to get enough of the Jewish state: Latin America.
Last week, the government of newly elected Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella opened a new embassy in Jerusalem, joining a small group of countries that recognize the city as Israel’s capital. Argentina’s President Javier Milei, in power since 2023, is an enthusiastic supporter of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has visited Israel repeatedly, and even expressed interest in converting to Judaism. Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro visited Israel in 2019 and promised to move Brazil’s embassy to Jerusalem, although he ultimately opened a trade office instead. His son Flávio Bolsonaro, who is well positioned to win Brazil’s presidential runoff this weekend, has indicated he would move the embassy if elected.
All of these leaders share one thing in common: they are part of Latin America’s resurgent right, which has gained power in a growing number of countries by appealing to voters’ concerns about crime, violence, and corruption.
But their enthusiasm for Israel contrasts with broader public opinion across the region. Pew polling found that nearly 60% of Chileans, 55% of Argentines, and 52% of Brazilians hold unfavorable views of Israel.
So, why are these leaders embracing the Jewish state so fervently?
Historical ties to the right. During the Cold War, Israel supplied weapons and military assistance to several of Latin America’s most prominent right-wing dictatorships, including those in Argentina, Chile, and Brazil. When the US restricted military assistance to these regimes over human rights concerns, Israel often stepped in. These relationships established a precedent for military cooperation that continues today.
Religion. Evangelical Christianity has grown rapidly across Latin America, particularly in Brazil, Colombia, and Central America, where it has become a political force to be reckoned with. Right-wing leaders like Bolsonaro in Brazil and Jimmy Morales in Guatemala owe much of their rise to the rapid growth of evangelicalism in the region. Many evangelical communities strongly support Israel, believing that the establishment of a Jewish state is a prerequisite for the return of Christ and the final judgment.
Kindred spirits. Many of these leaders have built their political identities around promises to crack down on crime, narco-terrorism, and insecurity. Israel, with its powerful military and intelligence capabilities, offers an appealing model for politicians who promise a hard line against drug cartels and organized crime, even if the threats facing their countries are fundamentally different.
But it’s also a political alignment. Eurasia Group Brazil experts Marcelo Alvarenga and Julia Thomson say that this connection is especially strong in Brazil. “Bolsonarismo shares the view [with Netanyahu] that it is part of a worldwide crusade against other political movements,” Alvarenga says. Bolsonaro’s support for Israel also reflects its opposition to current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the Brazilian left, which it associates with support for the Palestinian cause.
But what does each side actually gain? For Latin American countries, there are a few key things.
Signaling to Trump. Supporting Israel is a way to demonstrate alignment with President Donald Trump, one of Netanyahu's strongest international backers. As traditional US allies criticize Israel, right-wing leaders in Latin America can signal that they’re aligned with Washington, potentially strengthening their ties with the US on security and trade.
Israel has valuable military technology. Israel has long supplied military equipment to Latin American armed forces. It now also offers cutting-edge drone, cybersecurity, and targeting technologies. Earlier this month, Argentina signed a new defense cooperation agreement with Israel, months after purchasing Israeli-made rifles. Colombia, meanwhile, is keen to restore valuable defense and intelligence cooperation that deteriorated under former left-wing President Gustavo Petro.
Former Israeli diplomat Dan Arbell points to concerns in Argentina and Paraguay about Hezbollah-linked activity in the Tri-Border Area, where Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay meet. These shared concerns, he argues, are helping push the relationship beyond political symbolism.
Trade and tech. Although bilateral trade between Israel and the region remains modest, around $2.5 billion each year and concentrated mostly in Brazil, Israel has advanced expertise in agriculture, water management, and cybersecurity that could benefit Latin American economies. Colombia has restored its free trade agreement with Israel, which also has an agreement with Mercosur, the South American trading bloc.
What does Israel get?
There’s a commercial incentive, for one thing. Israel’s defense industry exported a record $19.2 billion in equipment last year, and closer relationships – especially with countries focused on security issues – could open new markets for Israeli weapons and technology.
But the bigger benefit may be diplomatic. As Israel faces growing international criticism over Gaza, friendly governments willing to open embassies in Jerusalem and defend Israel’s policies are increasingly valuable.
“Latin America is not a peripheral region for Israel,” says Dina Siegel Vann, director of the American Jewish Committee’s Belfer Institute for Latino and Latin American Affairs. “It is a region of considerable diplomatic weight, economic potential, and strategic importance.”
All of this still depends on the “right” circumstances. Israel’s deepening ties with the region depend heavily on the resurgence of Latin America’s right. For now, that wave appears to be gaining momentum, especially if Flávio Bolsonaro fulfills expectations and wins Brazil’s runoff this Sunday. But in a region where anti-incumbency has become the dominant force in politics, it’s not clear how long the rightward swing will last.
As Siegel Vann put it, “The key question is how [the two sides] move from a moment of political alignment to a long-term strategic partnership.”
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Tourist Trap
6h
The dropoff deepens a trend that began in 2025, when overseas arrivals fell by 2.5%. The decline is particularly striking given that thousands of people came to the US for the World Cup earlier this year. The Trump administration has set an ambitious goal of attracting 100 million overseas visitors a year by 2030, but meeting that target would require a staggering jump from the roughly 70 million who visited last year. Some experts and tourism executives blame uncertainty and fear caused by the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement measures
Turkey and Canada’s new friendship, El Salvador threatening Haitian gangs, North Korea’s petty propaganda push
6h
Canada looks to Turkey for new partnership
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is in Turkey on Thursday for talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The visit is the first by a Canadian prime minister to Turkey. The two leaders promptly announced a new “strategic partnership” focused on expanding cooperation in defense and energy — Erdogan is particularly interested in Canadian support for nuclear power production. Although Carney, a liberal, and Erdogan, an Islamist, are not ideologically aligned, Canada’s PM is putting realism ahead of politics as he looks to strengthen ties with other middle powers wary of getting pushed around by the US and China. The visit is also part of Carney’s broader efforts to diversify Canada’s economic and security relationships and reduce the country’s long-standing dependence on an increasingly hostile United States.
El Salvador’s president threatens Haiti’s gangs
Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele has announced a military operation to rescue four Salvadoran soldiers kidnapped in an ambush in Haiti. The soldiers were serving with the UN-backed Gang Suppression Force (GSF). Bukele, whose controversial hardline policies have crushed gang activity in El Salvador, demanded the soldiers’ return and threatened wider action if they are harmed: “We have already finished with the gangs in El Salvador, and we can finish with you too.” It’s unclear how Bukele would follow through on his threat, which could entail a substantial overseas military operation in Haiti. The GSF, for its part, was deployed in April to help retake control of Haiti’s capital from powerful gangs. Attacks on the force have risen in recent months, and the UN estimates that gang violence has killed or injured more than 5,700 people since January.
North Korea blares at South Korea again
Frictions on the Korean Peninsula are intensifying again, quite literally. North Korea has announced it will resume using gigantic speakers to blast propaganda across the border into South Korea. The move comes a little more than a year after both sides suspended the practice. Relations between the two Koreas have taken a nose dive since 2024, when North Korea formally rejected any goal of reunification and began heavily fortifying its side of the Demilitarized Zone which splits the two countries. Since coming to power last year, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung has tried to ease tensions, but the North has maintained a hard line, criticizing the South’s long-standing alignment with the US and refusing substantive talks. Both sides have a history of baiting each other with cross-border propaganda. No word yet on whether North Korea will also revive its policy of launching southbound balloons loaded with garbage and excrement.
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Dress for seasonal chaos from the Puppet Regime Ministry of Merch
7h
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Sports are driving the boom
9h
Online betting activity appears closely tied to the sports calendar, with first-time users rising during basketball and football seasons. Major sporting events, promotions, and growing interest in prediction markets may also boost participation.
Hôtel de Ville, the city hall of Limoges in central France, was built by architect Charles-Alfred Leclerc in 1883. A historically protected building of Limousin granite and Poitou limestone, adorned by statues symbolizing the historical industries of Limoges atop its pediments, it has stood through three French Republics, two world wars, and a four-year-long occupation by Nazi Germany.
On Saturday night, Hôtel de Ville burned. By Sunday, only the husk of the building was left standing – arsonists set it ablaze amid riots that have rocked France for days. It encapsulates a France whose governing institutions are being pulled apart by its citizens – a story that carries far-reaching implications for the future of the country and the European Union, as far-right candidate Marine Le Pen leads presidential election polls, while bond markets lose confidence in France’s capacity to repay its debts.
The unrest began several weeks ago with protests led by students demanding better conditions in French schools. Often joined by their teachers, the student protests led to school closures across France, the arrest of more than 6,000 people, and all sorts of violent incidents between the police and demonstrators. In one instance, reported by The New York Times, police shot a tear gas grenade into a fourteen-year-old boy’s face from two yards away, “breaking his jaw and destroying many of his teeth.”
The situation further escalated this past Saturday, when hundreds of thousands of protesters filled the streets for a march protesting both the state of the education system and the cost of living. They were accompanied by rioters who damaged or looted 1,500 businesses, burned the Hôtel de Ville, and caused likely over one billion euros of damage.
The aftermath has scrambled the already fractious presidential election. Before the riots, far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon had risen in the polls to second behind Le Pen, prompting fears that the second-round runoff could feature two extremist candidates. Centrist candidates Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal, both former Prime Ministers under President Emmanuel Macron’s increasingly unpopular government, have divided their vote share, leaving an opening for Mélenchon until one of them drops out of the race. Another candidate, Raphaël Glucksmann, has recently emerged as a center-left option hoping to take advantage of fears that Mélenchon will make the runoff.
Polling shows that Le Pen is favored to win the second round by a wide margin against either Philippe (who is more likely to make it than Attal) or Mélenchon, despite her criminal record of embezzlement, support for Russian President Vladimir Putin (even occasionally using the Kremlin’s own talking points), and longstanding antisemitism allegations against her National Rally party. A highly unlikely Mélenchon victory would send to office a man who has similarly argued that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the fault of Ukraine and the United States, and who would seek to cancel broad swaths of France’s national debt, while lowering France’s retirement age (already the lowest among Europe’s major economies and the source of fiscal pressure) to 60.
The riots are expected to help Le Pen, given her longstanding law-and-order rhetoric, and hurt Mélenchon, given his early support for the protests. Philippe and Attal are not well-positioned either, given their ties to Macron’s unpopular record – dissatisfaction that helped spur this unrest and earlier protests, such as the Yellow Vest Movement. Meanwhile, Glucksmann has struggled to walk a fine line between supporting the protesters and condemning the violence.
Le Pen is the one candidate poised to profit from the fact that France is beset by what my colleague Mujtaba Rahman recently termed “un engrenage” or “a vicious spiral.” With a debt over 4 trillion dollars, a public unwilling to tolerate significant cuts to France’s public spending, rising anger over the cost of living, and a divided political establishment, France faces interlocking crises that raise the appeal of a conservative populist.
The bond market sees these problems too. French borrowing costs have soared to highs unseen in decades, with the French-German bond spread reaching its peak since the Eurozone crisis. That has led to fears that France could face a debt crisis, which would prove catastrophic not only for the country’s finances but for those of the European Union – a scenario not far off from Greece in 2009 but with an economy 12 times larger and accordingly, much more difficult to bail out. A French economic calamity would quickly become a European one too.
Even if France gets its finances in order – which Le Pen has tried to reassure investors she will do if she wins – the European Union could still find its actions paralyzed by a deeply Euroskeptic leader at the helm of one of its most powerful nations. There were similar fears after the election of conservative Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Italy; however, her moderation in office allowed her to become a serious player in Brussels.
Will Le Pen likewise reverse course? It’s possible, but she lacks the same incentives. Italy is more reliant on the European Union, given the relatively smaller size of its economy and its own debt issues, so it was always in Meloni’s interest to change her tone towards Brussels once in office. France – if it avoids a disastrous debt scenario in which it needs help from the European Central Bank – is more powerful economically, militarily, and diplomatically. A Euroskeptic leader of France is more likely to win EU concessions than a Euroskeptic leader of Italy.
There is still a significant possibility that Le Pen is defeated by one of the centrist candidates, and a smaller chance that a new candidate such as Glucksmann breaks through. But the range of outcomes for the European Union looks bleak: France led by a far-right leader or a weakened centrist candidate with the same coalition infighting that Macron has suffered – on top of a worsening debt problem in the EU’s second biggest economy.
And the challenges aren’t isolated to France. Italy likewise experienced a weekend of riots linked to anger at the political establishment, as Meloni tries to fend off a challenger on her right. Spain has seen massive protests over housing costs after the recent eviction of 87-year-old María del Carmen Abascal. In Germany, a wave of state election breakthroughs for the far-right Alternative for Germany has weakened incumbent Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government.
Across Europe, establishment parties are straining to maintain support, as voters lose patience with rising costs caused by sluggish economies and wars in Ukraine and Iran. Their frustration leads them to protests and more extreme parties who attribute their countries’ problems to immigration and European support for Ukraine. Today, France is the most extreme example. But it is far from the only one.
Yet most of Europe is not in a state of total decline. While Europe’s economy has struggled in recent years, the EU has made significant progress on implementing the reforms suggested by the Draghi Report to improve competitiveness. European countries are finally investing appropriate levels in their militaries, headlined by Germany’s historic rebuilding of the Bundeswehr. The EU might be far behind the US and China in developing AI, but they’re well ahead in governing it. And while the economic model of Europe needs reform to compete with the US, the reality is that the quality of life there is in many ways better than that of Americans due to a robust welfare state and a greater prioritization of work/life balance.
What’s not working in Europe right now is the politics. That is why these protests and riots matter: they demonstrate the groundswell of anti-establishment anger lurking in the European electorate. Hôtel de Ville was badly damaged by arsonists, but it will be rebuilt. The rest of Europe’s historic institutions – governments led by establishment parties, central banks, the European Union itself – are also the subject of an uncontrollable outburst of fury by the citizens they represent. Can Europe’s institutions, like Hôtel de Ville, be rebuilt to stand for future generations?
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That’s way above the UN target of 1.5 degrees that was set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. The UN says the world can still turn things around, but only through steep emissions cuts. It says governments could limit the overshoot to around 1.8 degrees by mid-century, but only if they slash emissions 18% over the next four years, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040. Are governments really willing to take such drastic steps now?
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Troops in Milan, Death Penalty in Burkina Faso, US & Israel’s post-election Iran plans
October 21, 2026
Italy sends the army into Milan
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has deployed 500 troops to Milan and tightened nationwide anti-rioting laws in an effort to quell unrest that has gripped the city since the weekend, with rioters smashing storefronts, looting businesses, and surrounding Milan’s iconic Duomo cathedral. For Meloni and her right-wing Brothers of Italy party, which swept to power in 2022 on a tough-on-crime and anti-immigration platform, the unrest — echoing larger riots in France — offers another opportunity to double down on those messages ahead of next year’s elections. And she has good reason to do so: Meloni faces growing competition from parties even further to her right, particularly from Roberto Vannacci and his National Future party, which has been gaining momentum after accusing Meloni of going soft on crime and immigration.
Burkina Faso brings back the death penalty
Burkina Faso’s parliament has unanimously voted to reinstate the death penalty, just eight years after the country’s previous, democratically elected government abolished it. A military coup ousted that government in 2022, and the ruling junta now argues that restoring capital punishment will help combat the al-Qaeda-affiliated Islamist insurgencies that have plagued the country for much of the past decade, killing over 25,000 people and displacing over two million. But the decision goes against a broader trend, particularly in Africa, where countries including Zimbabwe, Ghana, and the Central African Republic have abolished the death penalty in recent years. The move has also provoked fresh criticism of Burkina Faso’s military government, which human rights groups have accused of carrying out extrajudicial killings and cracking down on press freedom.
Will the US and Israel resume Iran strikes after the midterms?
President Trump and PM Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly discussed that possibility earlier this month, and US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is in Israel today to coordinate Iran policy. In Israel, which sees Iran as an existential threat, neutering Tehran’s nuclear program and potentially toppling the regime are widely supported — even by Netanyahu’s opponents. Ahead of an upcoming election that he could well lose, Netanyahu is eager to resume hostilities, but Trump has so far stopped him. That’s because in the US, by contrast, the so-far inconclusive war is deeply unpopular. Trump’s Republicans are set to take a beating in the midterms, partly because the conflict has stoked inflation, a key voter concern. But with Trump keen to “finish the job,” analysts expect he’ll roll the dice again after the election. As it happens, another US carrier group, along with 10,000 troops, is now steaming back toward the Middle East. Its projected arrival date? Mid-November.
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President Trump has changed course on Ukraine before. We all remember the Oval Office pyrotechnics (and the reconciliation). But his latest turn toward Russia could prove harder to reverse.
As Trump criticizes Volodymyr Zelensky, eases sanctions on Russia, and pursues a diesel deal with Vladimir Putin, Ukraine’s Republican supporters face a difficult choice: challenge the president or accept a policy they oppose.
Eurasia Group’s Clayton Allen explains why their leverage is limited, how the midterms could change the equation, and why even a Democratic victory wouldn’t guarantee a reversal.
South Sudan suffers drone strike, Romania finally gets a government, Colombia revives sea beef with Nicaragua
October 20, 2026
Drone strike raises tensions between Sudan and South Sudan
South Sudan is accusing neighboring Sudan of launching a drone strike that killed at least 73 people at a market in Abyei, a disputed, oil-rich region of roughly 4,000 square miles claimed by both countries. The attack has heightened tensions between the two states, which split in 2011 after South Sudan gained independence following decades of civil war. Why might Sudan attack the South? Since 2023, Sudan’s government has been locked in its own brutal civil war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) group. Khartoum has long accused South Sudan of helping move weapons to the RSF and of allowing RSF transports to refuel in Abyei, allegations that South Sudan denies. If South Sudan retaliates for Monday’s strike, it could open another front in Sudan’s already devastating war.
Six months after election, Romania to form government
Romania’s parliament has finally formed a government, with independent Prime Minister Luca Niculescu presiding over a minority government. Since elections were held in May, President Nicușor Dan has failed three times to form a government. After months of deadlock, the parties chose compromise over snap elections that would likely have been won by the populist ultra-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians. But that’s not the end of the story. The current deal between the center-right National Liberal Party and the center-left Social Democrats gives both parties six months to negotiate a more permanent coalition. Romania, which has the EU’s largest budget deficit, has been plagued by political instability in recent years. Polarization has only deepened since the 2024 presidential election, when Romania’s Constitutional Court overturned far-right populist Călin Georgescu’s first-round victory amid claims of Russian interference.
Colombia revives territorial spat with Nicaragua
President Abelardo de la Espriella threatened on Monday to unilaterally redraw his country’s maritime border with Nicaragua in order to expand Colombia’s territory. Under a 2012 International Court of Justice ruling that affirmed Colombia’s sovereignty over an archipelago off the Nicaraguan coast, Bogotá lost thousands of square miles of maritime territory. De la Espriella, a right-wing populist who won the presidency earlier this year, said the waters are Colombia’s “homeland” and that he will use force to defend them. Maritime sovereignty in the western Caribbean is not historically a hot-button issue in Colombia — unlike, say, Venezuela’s long-standing claims to the oil-rich Essequibo region of Guyana. But De la Espriella, who has a flair for the theatrical, may be testing the waters, as it were, to see whether it’s an issue that can stoke nationalist sentiment.
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The minerals include yttrium oxide, which is crucial for manufacturing jet engines and semiconductors. Inside China, one kilogram costs a mere $9. But outside of China? $1,150. China’s rare earth export controls — imposed partly in response to new US tariffs — are now threatening global supply chains. Japan has warned that it could run out of some of these minerals by the end of the year.
Alberta is staying in Canada. After a long night of ballot counting, with some polling stations open until 10:30 pm due to long lines and late starts, voters in the oil-rich western Canadian province decisively rejected taking steps toward independence.
Seventy-six percent voted to remain part of Canada, while 24% voted to initiate a secession process. The results mirrored opinion polls taken throughout the campaign and dealt a serious blow to separatists, some of whom had predicted getting as much as 55% of the vote.
But the more important results may have come from the nine other questions on the referendum ballot that have received considerably less attention.
Tighter borders. More than half of Albertans voted in favor of new provincial powers to limit immigration. Similar shares supported restricting publicly funded services for non-citizens and non-residents, as well as imposing waiting periods or additional fees on temporary residents seeking health benefits. This last issue marks a major departure in a country where universal health care is a defining feature of national identity.
Election security. An even clearer majority of Albertans, roughly 63%, supported requiring voters to present a passport, birth certificate, or citizenship card to vote in provincial elections. Supporters of the measure — which echoes Donald Trump’s stalled Save America Act — argue that it would protect electoral integrity, while critics warn it could disenfranchise eligible citizens who lack ready access to the required documents.
Tensions with Ottawa incoming. Unlike the electoral rule changes, which the Albertan government can implement directly, the immigration proposals will need to be negotiated with the federal government in Ottawa.
That will fuel tensions between Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at a time when Carney is trying to present a united front in Canada’s ongoing tariff war with the US.
Immigration will be the wedge issue. Immigration anxieties are familiar in both America and Europe, where governments face growing public concern over housing shortages, strained social services, and their capacity to absorb and assimilate newcomers. But they create a particular dilemma for Alberta and, by extension, Canada.
Alberta’s powerful oil industry and natural resources are a critical component of Canada’s broader economic and geopolitical ambitions. Ottawa wants to advance major energy and infrastructure projects, including a new west coast oil pipeline that would expand Canada's access to overseas markets.
But Alberta’s oil-driven economy depends heavily on immigration and temporary workers to support production, construction, and infrastructure development. Carney even recently mused about increasing immigration levels to build new energy infrastructure. At the same time, Canada faces persistent labor shortages that more immigration could partly ease, a trade-off that Carney’s cabinet is already discussing.
Alberta’s referendum results, as well as the recent outcome of Quebec’s provincial election, which immigration skeptics won, show that voters in key regions of the country prefer to keep immigration numbers down.
What happens next? Alberta’s separatists have vowed to press ahead despite their defeat. Smith’s United Conservative party will hold a convention in November, and polls show just over half of its members support separation. However, the greater issue is how the federal government will navigate Alberta’s demands for greater autonomy on issues core to broader Canadian ambitions — and manage the possible political fallout.
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Could a Democrat sweep of the House and Senate in the 2026 midterms actally help President Trump? If Democrats win back control of Congress, they'd have a bigger check on the president's agenda, but couldn't necessarily stop him from pushing it forward. So far, most of Trump's policy decisions have been made through executive authority, so a Democratic control of Congress isn't likely to change much. So what can voters expect if Dems win back both chambers?
Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report and Republican Strategist Liam Donovan join Ian Bremmer on GZERO World for a look at how a blue wave in the 2026 midterms could reshape Washington and set the stage for 2028. If Dems outperform on election night, it could counterintutiively hurt the party. A Democratic Congress would give Trump a convenient scapegoat, something he lacks right now. A big win could also mean Democrats simply dig into fighting Trump instead of finding a message that appeals to voters in 2028. Meanwhile, Republicans face their own questions about the party’s future. Would a major midterm defeat finally force a reckoning with Trump’s influence, or has MAGA full cemented itself as the new GOP identity?
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Russia-Ukraine ceasefire posted
14 October