From shopping to services, consumer spending is showing strength across categories. Holiday shopping got an early start, and it’s not just higher earners filling their carts. Bank of America Institute sees continued spending growth recovery for lower- and middle-income households.
The Democratic Party has flipped the House and the Senate. While there are still votes left to be counted and races yet to be determined, the Democrats' victory is unambiguously big – at least 54 Senate seats and approximately 258 seats in the House. In the Senate, Democrats won unexpected victories in Kansas (which had not elected a Democratic senator since 1932) and Texas (which had not elected one since 1988). Meanwhile, House wins stretched into districts recently gerrymandered by Republicans. Across state and congressional races, Democrats found success in parts of the United States where the party had not been competitive in generations.
While the president's party historically loses midterm elections, the scale of Republican losses is among the largest in decades, exacerbated by the Trump administration's historic corruption, war in Iran, unpopular tariffs, and focus on vanity projects – from ballrooms to arches – that aren't voter priorities.
It's a loss that will have far-reaching ramifications for the final two years of the Trump administration and the 2028 presidential election. But before looking ahead to the next election, I want to evaluate what I got right and wrong in my top three calls for the midterms. And what that record means for the remainder of Trump's time in the Oval Office.
Call 1: Democrats will win both the House (with at least 20 seats flipping blue) and the Senate (with a majority between 51 and 53 seats). And if I'm wrong, it's because I was too cautious in my prediction.
In my Quick Take on Monday, I laid out my expectations for a blue wave, spurred by Trump's low approval ratings and the global anti-incumbent trend in elections. I got the margin wrong but the direction of my error right. Democrats exceeded even optimistic predictions for their performance.
Not only did James Talarico defeat scandal-plagued Republican candidate Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, but Gina Hinojosa also defeated longtime Republican incumbent Governor Greg Abbott. Democrats flipped North Carolina on the strength of former Governor Roy Cooper's campaign, but they also managed to pick up the much harder seat in South Carolina, with Annie Andrews defeating Senator Darline Graham. Democrats didn't just win their target House seats, they flipped many that few thought competitive – such as North Carolina's 9th District, where perennial Democratic candidate Richard Ojeda (who'd previously run in West Virginia) defeated Rep. Richard Hudson, Chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Call 2: Trump might claim the election was rigged, but he won't be able to do much about it. We will have free-and-fair elections and a peaceful transition of power in Congress.
Before Tuesday, there was a considerable amount of speculation that Trump would attempt to rig the midterms: seizing ballot boxes, sending ICE into polling places, or refusing to seat newly elected members of Congress. My take was that Trump did not have the ability – or focus – to overturn the results. The checks on his authority, including state control of elections and skeptical courts, would prevent any serious effort to ignore the will of the voters.
Even before the midterms, evidence backed up this call. After reporting by the New York Times revealed that individuals associated with former Congresswoman Mary Peltola's campaign were behind the running of a second candidate named Dan Sullivan in Alaska's Senate race against incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, the Trump administration sought to prevent the state from certifying a loss by the incumbent senator, if the additional Sullivan on the ballot decided the election. A federal judge threw out the suit, and Sen. Sullivan stated he would accept the election results – which we still haven't learned in a razor-tight race.
The administration also sued the state of California before the election, claiming – without offering much evidence – that 20,000 voters on the state's rolls were noncitizens whose ballots shouldn't be counted. After losing in the lower courts, the Department of Justice took the case to the Supreme Court, which quickly rejected the request.
Election Day went smoothly in Alaska, California, and the rest of the country, and there's no evidence to suggest that there will be any impediment to Democrats taking office in January. Even if the Trump administration wanted to overturn the election results, the scale of the Republicans' loss makes it all but impossible to do so. To his credit, Trump quickly confirmed he would accept the outcome and seek to work with Democrats. (He also claimed Republicans lost because he was not on the ballot.)
Democracy – for all its messiness – is still able to deliver peaceful, effective transfers of power in the United States.
Call 3: We're past peak Trump. The midterms will offer proof of that and accelerate the decline of his influence.
For months, I've made the case that we are past the peak of Trump's ability to disrupt the international order. Before Tuesday, I would have argued that with only two years left in his term, cratering domestic political capital, increasing checks on his power from the Supreme Court, and the backfire of his war in Iran, Trump was no longer able to dictate the course of global events. That did not eliminate all risk associated with his presidency – especially as his administration rules out significant regulation on artificial intelligence, while safety incidents mount – but Trump's power on the international stage had become a wasting asset.
After the midterms, I'm only more confident in that take. Beyond the oversight from newly elected House and Senate Democrats, the widespread losses by the Republicans will increase the likelihood that members of Trump's own party will defect from his coalition. That does not mean that a wave of House and Senate Republicans will immediately begin criticizing the administration's actions in Iran or its immigration enforcement policies – Trump will maintain considerable influence in Republican primaries. But there will be a gradual increase in Republicans willing to balk at the Trump administration's talking points as they search for a more effective message ahead of 2028.
That dynamic will be heightened by the uncomfortable but unmistakable fact that Trump is losing coherence at the age of 80. Much like President Biden in the later years of his presidency, Trump was increasingly erratic on the campaign trail – repeating the same story multiple times within one speech and making more than twice as many "rambling or confusing digressions" as he did ten years ago, according to an analysis from the New York Times. There have also been numerous moments in which the president appeared to say his internal thoughts out loud, including repeatedly commenting on the physiques of men and women around him and launching a racist tirade against Somali Americans.
I can't evaluate Trump's mental state, but I can evaluate the political implications of the public perceiving him as having lost a step (with nearly half of the country already having thought Trump was experiencing cognitive decline earlier this year). Concerns over President Biden's mental acuity led to a revolt in his party against him, ultimately sinking his reelection campaign. Trump can't run for a third term (no matter what Steve Bannon says), but Republicans hoping to lead the party in 2028 and beyond can still desert him.
There will be some cabinet members interested in staying close to Trump – due to genuine loyalty or a desire to exploit commercial opportunity through their office – but politicians angling for a future in elected politics, such as presidential hopefuls Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, will face pressure to show their independence. And further infighting within the Republican Party will only entrench Trump's lame-duck status.
The midterms are over, but the Trump era is not yet. It has, however, entered a new phase, with Republicans laboring to rebuild the coalition that propelled them to office in 2024 and Democrats hoping their midterms landslide offers them a springboard to victory in 2028. That means we're increasingly talking about life after Trump in a country whose politics has been dominated by him for over ten years now. What that future looks like is still unknown, to America and to the world.
But one thing is known: voters in the midterms have offered a decisive repudiation of a president who has put himself above the country.
In this 'ask ian,' Ian Bremmer takes a look at the issues that drove the "blue wave" in the 2026 US midterms and how Democrats winning control of the House and Senate represents a repudiation of President Donald Trump’s governing record.
Ian argues that Trump’s support has eroded as Americans feel worse about “affordability issues, about the cost that they are paying, about their quality of living.” He points to the Iran war, rising electricity costs and concerns over corruption as contributing factors, while noting that Trump’s campaign promises to help working and middle-class Americans have fallen short of voters’ expectations.
Looking ahead, Ian says the results leave Trump a lame duck for the final two years of his presidency, with Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress. The scale of the losses could also reshape the 2028 presidential race, making a more open Republican primary likely and creating an opportunity for a new generation of younger candidates in both parties.
In the end, the long-predicted “blue wave” turned into a tsunami as the Democrats, harnessing widespread frustrations over high living costs, opposition to the war in Iran, and misgivings about Trump’s deportation policies, swept back to power on Capitol Hill.
Team Blue reclaimed control not only of the House of Representatives, but the Senate too. Some of the Democrats’ wins were true stunners: until last night, neither Texas nor South Carolina had elected a Democratic senator since the 1990s. Kansas hadn’t done it since the 1920s.
What lessons will each party draw from the drubbing? And how might the outcome affect the rest of the world? Let’s take a look at what we can expect in the final two years of Trump’s presidency.
What does it mean for Republicans?
As the dust settles, a handful of Republicans have begun pointing fingers at the president for a night of bruising losses. “It’s on him,” one Republican lobbyist in Texas told the BBC. Across the country, voters rejected Trump’s hand-picked candidates in Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Michigan. Senate seats in Republican strongholds like Kansas, which hadn’t voted for a Democrat in nearly a century, flipped. Trump told voters to pretend he was on the ballot, and, evidently, they did.
For the party, the midterms mark a new era. Trump, the kingmaker of Republican politics for the last decade, has proved unpopular. Sticking by his side over his next two years in office could hamper their own political ambitions down the line. Because of this, as Ian Bremmer predicted in a recent Quick Take, Republicans will start planning the party’s future without him.
But for members of Trump’s administration with possible 2028 ambitions, that’s a tricky needle to thread. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, whose former Ohio Senate seat flipped to Democrat Sherrod Brown, have two more years to serve at Trump’s side. They may not be able to daylight between themselves and the president yet, despite Trump’s unpopularity. This morning, for example, Vance blamed Republicans’ losses on the hugely unpopular war in Iran – rather than Trump’s decision to lead the country into it.
What does this mean for Democrats?
Democrats are riding high after last night, but now comes the hard part: delivering on their promises. That won’t be easy. Democrats will have to navigate deep divisions within their own party. According to a new Politico poll, 61% of self-described progressive democrats want the party to tackle a more ambitious agenda, while only 35% of self-described moderates agree. While some centrists may be willing to work across the aisle, progressives could draw a hard line when it comes to aid to Israel and universal health care. And that’s before legislation gets to Trump, who has vowed to become “Mr. Veto,” making it difficult to advance priorities like reversing Medicaid cuts, ending tariff battles, and constraining Trump’s war in Iran.
Now, eyes are already turning toward 2028, and the bigger question may be what lessons Democrats take from this election. Running primarily on opposition to Trump failed to resonate with voters two years ago, but this time, a message focused on economic populism appears to have struck a chord across the country. Democrats now face a choice: return to the party’s familiar playbook of the past decade, or chart a new course built around the issues that propelled them to victory. And with no clear party leader, those divisions between the party’s progressive and centrist wings could deepen as Democrats begin a contentious battle over their future.
What does it mean for the rest of the world?
The one area where the Democrats’ sweeping victory will have the least impact is the one that affects the rest of the world most: US foreign policy. US presidents enjoy broad freedom of action on trade, sanctions, and war — with minimal effective oversight from Congress. While Capitol Hill can try to restrain the president by withholding funding appropriations or holding hearings, the Democrats lack a veto-proof majority in both houses, undermining their leverage over the White House.
That leaves Trump with a relatively free hand to shape his own legacy on the world stage for two more years. Two key areas will immediately come into focus: will he continue pressuring Europe and Ukraine to accept a peace deal that normalizes relations with Russia? Will he reignite the Iran war alongside Israel in order to “finish the job” of either destroying Tehran’s nuclear program or changing the regime? Unlike Vance and 2028 hopefuls in his administration, Trump never has to face voters directly again. Trump also needs to define a timeline for elections in Venezuela and steer the delicate trade detente with China.
Last night’s wins were not only pivotal but also broke multiple glass ceilings in American politics. There were at least ten historic firsts:
Abdul El-Sayed will be the first Muslim to serve in the Senate.
Keisha Lance Bottoms will be the first-ever Black woman to serve as governor.
Chris Pappas will be the first openly gay man to serve in the Senate.
Gina Hinojosa will be Texas' first Latina governor.
Aaron Ford will be Nevada's first Black governor.
Deb Haaland will be the country's first Native American woman to serve as governor.
Amy Acton will be Ohio's first female governor, and Amy Klobuchar will be Minnesota's first female governor.
The barrier-breaking wasn’t contained to the Democratic side: Republican Byron Donalds will become Florida’s first Black governor, and Marsha Blackburn will be Tennessee's first female governor.
Voters in Africa’s wealthiest country have a pivotal election of their own today, with over 250 local contests nationwide. The elections are widely seen as a referendum on the African National Congress (ANC), the party that has governed South Africa since the end of apartheid, amid frustration over pervasive corruption, crumbling public services, and rising migration. The ANC has seen its standing slide in recent years. In 2024, it lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years and, in the 2021 municipal elections, saw its support fall below 50%. Polls show its support could fall below 40% in today’s contests, likely losing ground to the rival Democratic Alliance and former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe party. But the ANC remains the largest party in South Africa, and its loss could lead to unstable governing coalitions in many cities and strain ties that carefully bind the national government.
The Italian PM’s government has drafted a special levy on wealthy residents leaving the country as part of next year’s budget. The so-called “exit tax” amounts to a 26% capital gains tax on people with $1.3 million or more in assets who decide to relocate abroad. The measure isn't estimated to yield much revenue — $4.5 million in its first year — but it comes as Meloni faces Italians frustrated by surging inflation. Wealth taxes have become a contentious issue worldwide in recent years. France established its own exit tax in 2012, and voters in California considered a measure to tax billionaires in yesterday’s midterms (the result is still too early to call). But Meloni’s proposal could also rattle the country’s wealthy expats. Some 4,000 emigrated to Italy in under a decade, drawn by a flat tax on foreign income that the country introduced to boost its sluggish economy.
Six countries competing in next year’s ice hockey world championships said they will boycott games against Russia after a court ruling last week said the country must be allowed to participate. Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, the Czech Republic, and Latvia all said they would refuse to face the hockey powerhouse. Since the invasion in 2022, Russian teams and athletes have been banned from competing under their national flag at most international sporting events. But nearly five years into the war, those restrictions have slowly been rolled back – Russian athletes were allowed to compete under their flag at the Winter Paralympics this year for the first time in a decade, and at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. Adding to the drama, Ukraine has qualified for the hockey tournament for the first time in 20 years. But as the lowest- ranked team, they could be bumped from the competition to make room for Russia. Do you think Russian athletes should be banned from international sports? Let us know here — include your name/location, and we may publish your response.
If predictions hold, Democrats are on track to win a majority of seats in the House. The real battle today is for the Senate, where Republicans currently hold 53 seats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to hold a true majority, since Vice President JD Vance can cast a tie-breaking vote in their favor.
We’ve put together a cheat sheet of 11 races to watch, based on the Cook Political Report’s ratings: contests that lean Republican, contests that lean Democratic, and toss-ups. These races are no easy feats for Democrats. In Alaska, Ohio, and Texas, they’re gunning to flip seats in states Trump won by double digits in 2024. In Texas, a Democrat hasn’t been elected to the Senate since 1988 – the year before the Democratic nominee James Talarico was born. And in Kansas, voters haven’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in almost a century.
The key in these red states is what Republican-leaning voters who may have backed Trump in 2024 but are unhappy with the economy do next, Cook Political Report Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter said on a recent episode of GZERO World. “If those voters stay home, that becomes problematic for Republicans,” she said. “If they show up and vote Democrat, that is where you start to see those red states move toward Democrats.”
Download the GZERO cheat sheet - The midterms: Races that could decide the Senate
Garment workers in Bangladesh have taken to the streets over the past week, demanding higher wages and forcing more than 600 factories to shut down nationwide. Protests escalated on Sunday in the capital, Dhaka, after police fired tear gas at demonstrators. The industry generates more than $40 billion for Bangladesh per year, about 10% of its GDP, but workers say they aren’t seeing any of that money. They are demanding that the national minimum monthly wage be raised from 13,000 taka ($105), among the lowest in the world, to 30,000 taka ($242). Recently-elected PM Tarique Rahman has scrambled to contain the unrest, announcing a new wage board to review workers’ demands. Worker strikes could have a global impact: Bangladesh is the world’s second-largest garment exporter after China, supplying about 7% of garments worldwide, including to major brands like H&M, Primark, and Uniqlo.
US President Donald Trump said this morning that the US would halt $4 billion in annual aid to Israel by the end of this year. During an interview with Fox News, the president said Israel is prosperous enough to fund its own defense, but added that commercial arms sales will continue. It’s unclear how Washington will end the assistance early, given the aid agreement expires in 2028. But Trump appears more concerned with politics than logistics: he argued Israel had become too much of a talking point for Democratic candidates like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, who is currently polling ahead of his Republican opponent. As we reported yesterday, Israel has become a defining issue for Democrats as public opinion sours on the country. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to comment on Trump’s announcement, but told the Economist in January that he wanted to “taper off” US military aid in the next decade.
Starting today, Mexico will ban phones in elementary and middle schools. The restrictions, championed by President Claudia Sheinbaum, aim to improve students’ focus and learning outcomes. But critics warn the new policy could put children at risk. In parts of the country plagued by cartel violence, parents worry that the ban could prevent them from contacting their children during emergencies or checking that they're safe. In the first half of this year, nearly 10% of Mexicans under the age of 18 were victims of some form of organized crime. Mexico is hardly alone: 114 other countries have already imposed nationwide cellphone bans in schools.
As AI creates new opportunities, the people who understand a community best play an important role in determining how those opportunities take shape. Across the US, Microsoft is supporting AI literacy classes as part of a new program developed in collaboration with the Public Library Association, working through trusted local institutions to help people build practical AI skills.
By pairing new technology with local knowledge, the initiative is helping communities explore how AI can support their needs and open new possibilities, while putting local leaders and organizations at the center of that work.
Read the full story here.
Americans vote tomorrow in midterm elections that could hand Democrats control of Congress. For more than a year, the party has been favored to win the House. But recent polls over the last few months show that the Senate, once considered out of reach, is within reach for Democrats as well.
Republicans currently hold 53 seats, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four to take control and overcome any potential tie-breaking vote by Vice President JD Vance. That’s a remarkable turnaround from their bruising 2024 losses, especially given the states at the center of the Senate battle – Alaska, Kansas, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa – were ones Republicans easily won in Senate and presidential contests in recent years.
But Republicans have faced a tough political environment. The president’s party typically loses ground in midterm elections, and Republicans face additional global headwinds that have shaped voters’ attitudes. We’re breaking down the three main issues that could help decide tomorrow’s elections: the cost of living, Israel, and AI.
Cost of living
Rising costs of living have become an issue around the world, with sweeping protests in Europe and Asia, and topping voters’ concerns ahead of the midterms. Since the US and Israel went to war with Iran in February, Tehran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz has sent fuel costs soaring. Before the war began in February, a gallon of gas cost around $3 on average in the US. Today? $4.20. Moody’s estimates the war has cost the average American household an additional $2,000.
The economy has long ranked as a top issue for American voters, and something Donald Trump himself campaigned on in 2025. In fact, by ad spending, affordability is the single biggest issue in the midterms, with all parties spending a combined $801 million on affordability-related ads, according to analysis from AdInsight.
But polls show voters in large part blame Trump and the war for the rising costs, creating an uphill battle for Republicans in contests across the country. As a result, Republicans in at least 12 competitive races have tried to distance themselves from the president on Iran – calling for an end to the conflict or voting to curb Trump’s war powers. Democrats, meanwhile, have capitalized on this, using ads and other messaging to clearly link rising costs to the president’s war in voters’ minds. Now, 39% of voters trust Democrats to handle cost-of-living concerns, while just 25% trust Republicans to do so.
Meanwhile, Trump has tried to assuage voters’ cost-of-living concerns with plans to import ground beef and reduce costs at home, and convince European leaders to release diesel stockpiles to lower global fuel prices. But the efforts haven’t had a significant impact on polling, and it may be too little, too late.
Israel
In the three years since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks and the war in Gaza, Americans on both sides of the aisle have grown increasingly critical of Israel. What was once a bipartisan consensus on supporting the Jewish state has become a major dividing line inside the Democratic Party. In 2022, nearly 35% of Democrats had a favorable view of the Israeli government. Now, that number is as low as 16%. For Democratic candidates, support for Israel has become a political “litmus test,” as Lincoln Mitchell, a political science professor at Columbia University, explained to GZERO this summer.
In many competitive primaries, younger, more progressive voters have pushed back against the party’s traditionally pro-Israel establishment. Nowhere has that divide been clearer than in Michigan, where progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeated centrist, establishment-backed Rep. Haley Stevens in a bitter Senate primary. El-Sayed, who has called Israel’s actions in Gaza a “genocide” and demanded an end to US military aid, won despite a record $30 million in spending against him by AIPAC, the most powerful pro-Israel lobbying organization, and its affiliated groups.
The issue poses an electoral dilemma for Democrats on Tuesday. While taking a harder line on Israel may energize young progressive voters, candidates also risk alienating more moderate Democrats and pro-Israel constituents. Republicans in government, meanwhile, largely remain supportive of Israel. This could come to a head in Michigan. In a major twist this weekend, Stevens endorsed Republican candidate Mike Rogers because of El-Sayed’s views on Israel, potentially drawing votes away from El-Sayed among moderate Democrats in the state.
AI
The rapid expansion of AI and data centers has sparked public backlash in Europe and North America, particularly in the US. Seventy-one percent of voters oppose building data centers in their area, with many concerned they might drive up energy costs. The concern has driven ballot initiatives across the country: according to one analysis, voters will weigh in on 40 data center-related measures, many of which propose bans or moratoriums on construction. In Ohio, for example, half of the data center-related measures ask voters if they’d like to halt development.
Voters also fear AI’s impact on the workforce: 52% now say they are more concerned than excited about the technology, up from 37% in 2021. It will also likely be on voters’ minds as they head to the polls, with 30% considering the issue “extremely important” and 23% considering it “very important.”
The president, meanwhile, remains a vocal proponent of the technology. He has rejected calls for binding AI regulation, instead calling for “self-regulation” overseen by a “smart president.” In August, he posted to his social platform Truth Social that “the only reason that communities throughout the U.S.A. should not want Data Centers is if they want to end up being backward and poor.”
Several Republicans have sought to put daylight between themselves and the Trump administration, particularly when it comes to data centers. In Ohio, Vivek Ramaswamy, who is running for governor, proposed requiring data centers to cover rising energy costs. In Colorado, Rep. Gabe Evans, who is running for re-election, introduced bipartisan legislation – the Ratepayers Protection Act – that would prevent costs of data centers from being passed on in energy bills to communities. And in Tennessee, Rep. Tim Burchett, also running for re-election, publicly rebuked Trump’s data center comments, saying, “I guess I’m backward and poor.”
But confidence in both Democrats and Republicans to handle AI is low: 39% of voters say neither party can be trusted to do a good job.
Not bad for a debut! Almgren, a former risk analyst and amateur soccer and track star who dedicated himself full time to distance running in 2025, had never run a marathon before Sunday. You read that right — it was his first marathon ever. He is the first European-born winner of the NYC race in 30 years. Last year he became the first non-African-born runner to crack the 59-minute mark in a half marathon, accomplishing the feat at Valencia. A few days later he flew to New York to watch the 2025 NYC Marathon and decided he’d give 26.2 miles a shot.
Poland is engulfed in a constitutional crisis amid a standoff between Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Karol Nawrocki over the country’s top court. Last month, Chief Justice Bogdan Święcicki, aligned with the previous government’s Law and Justice Party (PiS), refused to allow a parliament-approved judge to take his seat. Then, on Friday, pro-Tusk judges announced Święcicki’s suspension and appointed Judge Anna Korwin-Protrowska to lead it instead. On hearing the news, Nawrocki dramatically turned around his plane en route to Senegal, while protesters gathered at the court. By Friday evening, Tusk had deployed riot police and defended the court’s decision. It’s the latest escalation in a string of disputes between the centrist, pro-EU prime minister and right-wing nationalist president: the court is stacked with PiS-allied judges appointed under the previous administration, which the EU ruled was no longer impartial. The confrontation risks eroding either party’s constitutional legitimacy ahead of next year’s parliamentary election.
After 35 years, the UN is scrapping its peacekeeping mission in the Western Sahara, a region that Morocco claims as its own against long-standing resistance from local militants backed by Algeria. The mission, which was due for renewal at the UN Security Council, fell apart after a diplomatic clash between the US, which favors Morocco’s position, and Russia. A US proposal would have extended the mission but scrapped any plans for a local referendum and made Morocco’s offer of “autonomy” the baseline for any resolution of the conflict. Although that proposal had strong support in the UNSC, Russia vetoed it but then failed to garner enough votes for its own counterproposal, which would have simply extended the existing mission for one year. The peacekeepers’ exit is a victory for Morocco, but the UN has warned it opens the way for fresh escalation of the conflict, which dates back to the 1970s when Spain withdrew from the area.
Chinese state media stopped broadcasting Real Madrid football games this weekend after the club’s star player, Kylian Mbappé, made comments about Mao Zedong, the founder of the People’s Republic of China. Last week, Mbappé said a meme superimposing his face onto Mao’s made him laugh and referred to Mao as a “dictator.” The remark drew the ire of Chinese officials, who venerate Mao as modern China’s founding leader. The fallout underscores the leverage that China’s market gives Beijing over sports. Real Madrid alone has over 127 million fans in the country. It’s also not the first time China has flexed its muscles on the sports world: In 2019, Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey tweeted his support for pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong, prompting Chinese state television to pull NBA games off the air for 18 months, costing the league as much as $400 million.
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer shares his predictions for the US midterm elections and what a major Democratic victory could mean for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
Ian expects Democrats to flip at least 20 seats in the House and win a Senate majority ranging from 51 to 53 seats, pointing to Trump's declining approval ratings and waning enthusiasm among MAGA voters. He says the election will largely come down to turnout, noting that “the level of enthusiasm that MAGA voters have for Trump has fallen off a cliff.”
Ian also expects a peaceful transfer of power, arguing that the likelihood of an effective effort to overturn the results is “close to zero.” A Democratic wave could leave Trump increasingly constrained by congressional opposition, the courts, and a Republican Party looking beyond 2028.
The US has stopped providing financial assistance to Ukraine, leaving European countries to shoulder the cost of sustaining Kyiv's war effort. But with economic pressures mounting and far-right parties gaining ground across Europe, how long can that support last?
