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Will China ever replace the US as the world’s dominant superpower?
9h
Just three years ago, people around the world viewed the US more favorably than China. That is no longer the case. According to data published by the Pew Research Center this summer, China now receives more favorable ratings in most of the 36 countries surveyed.
It’s a dramatic change from just a year ago, when 49% of those surveyed had a favorable view of the US, while 37% had a favorable view of China. Even Americans are warming to China, especially young Americans, embracing so-called “Chinamaxxing” on social media, a tongue-in-cheek trend where Americans adopt elements of Chinese culture.
This shift is set against what’s happening inside the United States. President Donald Trump has pursued a more unilateralist and transactional approach to foreign policy, questioning alliances and imposing tariffs on allies. As Ian Bremmer has often said, the US is stepping back from the global order it’s led for decades. There are reasons to believe Beijing, meanwhile, has the economic clout, trade relationships, and technological reach to fill some of the space Washington leaves behind. The question is, can it?
A reliable trade partner. China is presenting itself as a more dependable and inclusive partner than the US today, whether in trade, international development, or AI.
“One of the things that the Chinese Communist Party is continually trying to do is take advantage of the idea that there's continuity and stability to it,” said Jeffery Wasserstrom, a professor who teaches Chinese history at UC Irvine.
US trade policy, by contrast, has become synonymous with uncertainty, with tariffs and negotiating demands shifting frequently. Canada abandoned trade talks in August after the US repeatedly changed its demands, resulting in both sides imposing steep tariffs on each other's goods.
China has taken a different path, leaning into regional trade partnerships. In 2022, China ratified the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a trade deal resulting from 10 years of negotiations among 10 ASEAN countries, plus Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea, representing over 30% of global GDP. China has further expanded its reach through trade deals and development initiatives, most notably its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), designed to expand infrastructure in developing countries. China’s exports to the Global South grew 39-fold between 2000 and 2024, while the US’s grew only two-fold.
Another example is in AI. The US’s AI governance initiative, Pax Silica, brought together several allies, including the UK, Australia, and France – so long as they didn’t join China’s AI initiative. Despite the initiative, the US has instead ignored allies’ calls for governance and pushed to accelerate AI growth without meaningful guardrails.
Meanwhile, China launched the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO) earlier this year, pledging to help developing nations benefit from AI development rather than fall behind. Chinese companies also offer “open-weight” AI models – publicly available models that anyone can download, study, and customize – which are much cheaper than US models.
But here is where China’s pitch begins to collide with its record. Despite Beijing’s language about multilateralism and equal partnerships, the size of China's economy gives it significant leverage over the states it deals with – which it uses to its benefit.
“China continues to do things that are highly problematic regarding trade, including using economic coercion against countries that do things it doesn't like,” explained Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. When Lithuania allowed Taiwan to open a de facto Taiwanese embassy in Vilnius in 2021, China responded by closing its markets to Lithuanian products – demonstrating that it might play by different rules than the US once did.
Messaging vs. Reality. Despite its messaging, China hasn’t stepped into the void the US left abroad. Much of the American humanitarian and development assistance, including through the since-gutted USAID or UN aid, came as grants. China’s Belt and Road Initiative, by contrast, initially started as loans that developing countries had to repay – often at high rates. Plus, China has been accused of flouting human rights with crackdowns on various civil society groups and minority populations.
“Originally [the loans] were incredibly favorable to China, so some countries thought they were predatory, and they weren't helping China's image,” Kurlantzick explained. Although it has since reduced those terms and invested more in traditional aid since 2019, it’s still far from the humanitarian efforts the US once led.
China’s rise isn’t just about China. While Xi Jinping wants to give the impression that China is becoming the world’s leading superpower, the story is more complex.
In fact, Xi may not be the strongman he wants to appear to be. “What people miss often is that Xi Jinping is not really a great leader,” Kurlantzick said. Xi has struggled with an unbalanced economy and overregulating the private sector. On top of that, repeated purges of his generals have also raised questions about his leadership.
“If China had a better, more effective leader since 2012… then the US would be in much worse shape. In fact, China probably already would be the global hegemon,” Kurlantzick argued. Instead, China’s rise is “partly a reflection of the US setting its credibility and soft power on fire.”
Canada makes for a striking example. As Trump made repeated threats to annex it and make it the “51st state,” Canadians began souring on America, and positive views of China rose. Now, Canadians have more positive views of China than the US for the first time in roughly two decades of Pew polling.
For Canada, as with many countries reassessing their relationship with the US, China’s consistency and reliability are an appealing pitch. But when it comes to stepping into the role of world leader, China might not fit the bill. But if it doesn’t – who, or what, comes next?
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UK and France end trial on new immigration deal, China adds massive tariffs to Brazilian beef, Soccer drama threatens UK-UAE relations
9h
One in, one out, all done: UK and France scrap migration pact
Last year the two countries struck a landmark deal to reduce the number of asylum seekers crossing the English Channel from France in small boats: for each undocumented migrant that the UK returned to France, British authorities would accept an asylum applicant with known family links in Britain. More than 1,400 people were officially returned to France under the scheme, which was criticized by some NGOs for alleged maltreatment of some detainees. But the deal has now collapsed. France says it prefers a wider agreement between the UK and the EU, rather than having to process all of the channel-crossing returnees itself. “Why do we have to manage this border on our own?” the French interior minister recently asked. Channel crossings by undocumented migrants are down about 40% this year, amid a significant decline in irregular crossings into Europe more broadly this year.
China and Brazil are beefing
Brazilian beef just got a lot more expensive in China. Starting today, Beijing is slapping an additional 55% tariff on Brazilian beef imports after the country hit its annual import quota of 1.1 million metric tons. China introduced the quota system this year to protect its domestic cattle industry after becoming the world’s largest beef importer. That could sting Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter, where the industry accounts for nearly 4% of total export revenue. It could also damage trade relations with China, which is Brazil's largest trading partner – China buys nearly a third of all Brazilian goods. Brazil isn’t alone: Australia has also hit its beef quota, meaning it will soon face higher tariffs too. But their loss could be America’s gain. US ranchers are increasingly looking overseas for buyers as high beef prices have weakened demand at home.
English football drama becomes test of UK-UAE ties
An independent commission found Manchester City guilty on Tuesday of using “sham” commercial contracts to inflate its revenue and cut costs by nearly $1.2 billion. The decision could bring hefty fines, points deductions or even the famed football club’s expulsion from the Premier League. But the fallout extends beyond the pitch. Sheikh Mansour, the UAE’s vice president and a member of its royal family, owns the club — and there’s talk he could sell it over the scandal. That has Britain’s new prime minister and former mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, worried. Since buying the club in 2008, a group led by Mansour has invested roughly $1.7 billion in Manchester and given an economic boost to a once-polluted industrial hub. The UK has also courted UAE investment, including from a nearly $400 billion sovereign fund overseen by Mansour. Burnham will be reluctant to let a football scandal complicate ties with an oil-rich ally.
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Small countries, super domains
9h
It’s not the first time that a smaller nation has taken advantage of its internet domain. Anguilla, a tiny British territory in the Caribbean, saw registrations of its .ai domain explode in 2023 and now brings in more than $39 million a year from it – nearly a quarter of its total revenue. Tuvalu, a Pacific island nation with the coveted .tv domain, gets around 9% of government revenue from domain registrations. And Montenegro’s .me domain has become popular for personal websites, bringing nearly $128 million into the Balkan nation since it launched in 2007.
Corruption scandals are rocking Brazil. Will they decide the presidential election?
30 September
On Sunday, Brazil chooses its future. Or rather, it begins to choose its future, given that polls between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro—son of former President Jair Bolsonaro—indicate that the race will likely require a runoff on October 25th. 513 seats are up for election in the Chamber of Deputies, along with much of the Senate, state governors, and, most importantly, the presidency. Yet the most important institution this cycle for Brazilians isn't on the ballot: the Supreme Federal Court (STF).
The court has been deluged by corruption allegations since early September, after news broke that Daniel Vorcaro—the now-imprisoned owner of Master Bank, a financial firm sunken by massive fraud—had exchanged text messages with Justice Alexandre de Moraes attempting to attain favorable treatment, even invoking the fact that he'd paid significant sums to the law firm of Moraes's wife. The revelations were made public by one of Moraes's fellow justices: André Mendonça, a Jair Bolsonaro appointee. The scandal has shaken the credibility of the court and polarized the public, with effects reverberating through the presidential race, because Justice Moraes was essential in the prosecution and conviction of Jair Bolsonaro.
The conservative, populist former president, then the incumbent, narrowly lost the 2022 election to Lula—who'd returned after two previous presidential terms, followed by his yearslong embroilment in corruption scandals, later cleared by STF. Bolsonaro then helped bring a mob of supporters to disrupt the transfer of power in Brasilia on January 8, 2023. In the aftermath, Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison, and Lula consistently praised the leadership of Justice Moraes, even though he hadn't appointed him. So now the growing scandal has led many to connect Lula to Moraes, hurting Lula's reelection prospects as the incumbent president already faces headwinds due to a worsening affordability crisis and questions over his fitness for another term at the age of eighty (and having had two brain surgeries in 2024).
But Flávio Bolsonaro is involved too. He's been linked to Vorcaro as a result of the convicted fraudster having financed a controversial film about Jair Bolsonaro, with speculation that the unusually large sum of money ($24 million, nearly five times more than the previously most expensive Brazilian film) might have been used for other purposes. So, now Brazilian voters increasingly distrust STF and are not enthused about either major candidate for the presidency, with no third candidate able to capitalize on this dissatisfaction.
Lula has tried to redirect attention from the scandal—announcing a big increase to the Bolsa Familia (Brazil's landmark social spending policy) and an end to online gambling—but even leveraging the powers of incumbency, he remains only the slightest of favorites in essentially a coin flip race. And the ramifications of this election will be far-reaching for Brazil and the rest of Latin America.
A Bolsonaro victory would be received positively by financial markets, given his commitment to tighter fiscal policy, and even more positively by the United States. The Trump Administration has long preferred Jair and Flávio Bolsonaro to Lula—given the obvious January 6th / January 8th parallels—even revoking Moraes's travel visa (prior to the corruption scandal) and applying trade pressure on Lula to stop Jair's criminal proceedings. If Flávio wins, he'll move towards a closer relationship with the US, joining President Trump's Shield of the Americas program to combat drug trafficking and enjoying smoother trade negotiations. Yet the concerns of democratic backsliding (including a likely pardon of Jair) and environmental damage (particularly to the Amazon rainforest) will be significant.
A Lula victory would not meaningfully change relations with the US, which have stabilized since the early tensions of Trump's second term. Brazil won't face the same fate from the US as Venezuela, even though Lula will continue to invoke Brazilian sovereignty on the campaign trail given the political upside. And while markets might prefer Bolsonaro, Lula would likewise work to address Brazil's longstanding debt problem through spending cuts, although at a slower pace, unlike the more radical measures preferred by Flávio Bolsonaro and other right-wing leaders in the region, such as Javier Milei in Argentina.
The rest of Latin America will be watching this election closely. The region has experienced a broader conservative turn in recent years, highlighted by the ascendance of figures like Milei and Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia. That's made it easier for President Trump to engage in the "Donroe Doctrine," from his support of the brutal criminal justice policies of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador to his economic pressure campaign to engineer regime change (or close to it) in Cuba. These regional headwinds favor Bolsonaro and make his election all the more appealing to the Trump administration—given Brazil's status as the region's largest economy and the world's 10th biggest.
Other middle powers will also keep an eye on Sunday's results, given the similar challenges they are facing. Right-wing populism is gaining steam in many middle powers—especially in Europe, as the AfD wins more power in Germany, Marine le Pen leads the polls in France, and Meloni faces challenges from her right in Italy. These gains have been aided by decreasing public trust in institutions as a result of corruption scandals, from the recent allegations swirling around Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to the UNGRD scandal during Gustavo Petro's presidency in Colombia. The decline in Brazilian institutions like STF is consequential not just for governance in Brazil and how it might influence the presidential election but also for incumbents in middle powers elsewhere as they try to restore trust in public institutions to fend off populist challengers.
No matter who wins the presidency, Brazil faces real democratic challenges, as confidence in public institutions like the Supreme Federal Court declines in a moment when the country needs more state capacity, not less. To fix its persistent fiscal problems and engineer the level of technological innovation that competitor nations have accomplished, Brazil needs an effective, efficient, and trusted government. And like many democracies, from Europe to the United States, right now it does not have one.
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Brazil's razor-close presidential race
30 September
In this ‘ask ian,’ Ian Bremmer breaks down Brazil's presidential election, a race too close to call heading into Sunday's vote.
Sunday's presidential election pits Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil's incumbent, against Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the imprisoned former president. Both camps face corruption allegations, and the Brazilian Supreme Court has become entangled in a major bank fraud case tied to figures on both sides of the race.
Ian explains why the US has held back from directly intervening despite pressure from Bolsonaro's family, and places Brazil's election in the context of a broader rightward shift across Latin America, from Colombia to Argentina to Venezuela.
Ian also outlines what a Bolsonaro victory would and wouldn't change. A win could bring Brazil closer to the US on security cooperation, but it wouldn't change Brazil's enduring economic relationship with China, which is likely to remain Brazil's top trade partner regardless of the outcome.
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Israel-bound flight hijacking sparks terrorism concerns, AI leaders sign “morally binding” regulation agreement, Burkina Faso wants to keep its gold
September 30, 2026
Attempted hijacking suspected in Dubai-Israel flight chaos
A flight from Dubai to Israel plunged nearly 20,000 feet on Wednesday during a blood-spattered fight in the cockpit. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said the co-pilot had tried to stab the pilot in an attempt to hijack the plane and crash it. Passengers and crew intervened to land the plane in Saudi Arabia. Motives for the clash and alleged hijacking attempt aren’t yet known. FlyDubai, a low-cost carrier, was the first airline to link Dubai and Tel Aviv after the Trump-brokered 2020 Abraham Accords normalized ties between the UAE and Israel. Airplane hijackings, at one point a nearly daily occurrence globally, are exceedingly rare now, owing to progressively increasing security measures since the 1970s, and especially after 9/11. The last major commercial airline hijacking was in 2014, when the co-pilot of a Geneva-bound flight from Ethiopia seized the controls and demanded political asylum in Switzerland.
AI leaders agree to police themselves
Just days after President Donald Trump dismissed calls for global AI governance in his UN speech, he invited six major tech executives at the White House to sign a “morally binding” agreement to self-regulate their AI development. Signatories include Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, xAI founder Elon Musk, and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg. It’s unclear what guardrails the agreement actually imposes, but Trump said that industry leaders convinced him they have the tools to police themselves. There may be a political calculation behind this for Trump: the agreement comes as anxiety over AI has surged in the United States, fueled by reports of advanced models evading safeguards, fears of job losses, and opposition to data centers. The pledge gives Republicans a way to show they’re addressing public concerns without embracing sweeping government regulation.
Burkina Faso is going for gold
Burkina Faso opened its first gold refinery on Monday in a push to harness more of the value from its natural resources. The country is one of Africa’s largest gold producers, but sends off its raw materials to be refined and processed in Switzerland, the UAE, and Austalia. The move is part of wider changes to the mining sector overseen by interim President Ibrahim Traoré since he came to power in a military coup in 2022, and a drive for domestic control over other minerals like lithium, copper, and nickel. Much of Traoré’s effort has focused reducing economic dependence on foreign companies and western partners. The government expects the refinery to create thousands of jobs, mostly indirectly. He joins a number of other African states, including Guinea, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, and Mali, that are trying to refine more of their gold and minerals domestically.
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This is actually the second time the US has left Iraq. The first was in 2011, when Washington ended the occupation which began with the 2003 invasion. But US forces returned in 2014 to lead a multinational fight against ISIS, the jihadist militant group born amid the chaos and sectarian strife triggered by the original US invasion. Today’s exit saw the last 2,500 US troops leave Erbil, capital of Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdish region. “Our happiness is mixed with fear,” an Iraqi photographer told the New York Times. The US invasion removed a hated dictator but touched off violence and sectarian clashes that claimed at least 300,000 lives, and gave rise to jihadist groups like ISIS. Iraq’s fragile democracy faces immense pressures today as it balances between Iran — which backs powerful Shia militias in Iraq — and the US, which has demanded that Baghdad rein in Tehran’s influence.
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In 1955, when Disneyland needed a bank that shared its vision, we were there.
Disneyland was constructed in Anaheim, Calif., and opened with a fully functioning Bank of America financial center on Main Street.
The Iran war is making it more expensive than ever for farmers to grow food, and it's exposing how fragile the global food supply has become. Can a new approach to soil save it? Eurasia Group's sustainability head Franck Gbaguidi breaks it down.
The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted fertilizer and fuel shipments, while diesel near $6.50 a gallon means filling a large combine can cost more than $2,100. As farmers confront failing supply chains and extreme weather, regenerative agriculture could offer a lifeline. Franck Gbaguidi explains how healthier soil, cover crops, and less plowing could reduce farms’ dependence on imported fertilizer and fuel—and help avert the next global food crisis.
Produced in partnership with Bayer.
Malaysia sends Rohingya back to Myanmar, Andy Burnham lays out vision for Labour Party, Indians protest over women’s safety
September 29, 2026
Malaysia sends Rohingya back to Myanmar despite security concerns
The Malaysian government started repatriating Rohingya refugees to Myanmar today with the goal of sending about 5,000 home over the next few weeks. Since 2017, millions of Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim ethnic minority, have fled Myanmar amid widespread persecution under both civilian and military-led governments. Malaysia’s move has drawn widespread criticism from human rights groups, who warn that those returning could face renewed violence in Rakhine State. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim says his government has little choice but to respond to public concern over the country’s growing refugee population. But Malaysia hosts only a fraction of the Rohingya living abroad. Neighboring Bangladesh is home to more than one million and has also been pushing for their repatriation. We’ll be watching whether Bangladesh follows Malaysia’s lead and strikes its own deal with Myanmar, despite concerns about the safety of those returning.
Andy Burnham makes his pitch to the UK
Britain’s new prime minister, Andy Burnham, laid out his vision for the country at a Labour Party conference in Liverpool today. Among his promises were electoral reform, changes to an increasingly unsustainable pensions system, and rebuilding ties with the EU – although he stopped short of calling to rejoin the bloc. Changes to the electoral system could reshape the political landscape by reducing the chances of one party winning power with a relatively small share of the vote. This could significantly lower right-wing Reform UK’s ability to win power. Burnham also promised to be “honest about what the country can afford” and reduce day-to-day spending in line with tax revenue by 2030 – while Britain, like much of Europe, faces a huge debt burden.
Protests in India over rape allegations
A university in the northwestern Indian state of Punjab has closed for ten days following violent protests over an alleged rape on campus. Meanwhile, the capital, New Delhi, is also facing unrest over sexual violence: last week student protests erupted after a teenage girl said she was raped in a public park, the latest in a string of high-profile rape reports in the region. On Monday, the Supreme Court blasted local law enforcement over the issue, highlighting poor patrolling and lighting of parks. But protesters say lighting isn’t the issue: sexual violence against women, and the relative impunity of aggressors, is a longstanding issue in India. Some 80 rapes are officially reported every day — likely a vast undercount. Activists highlight gender inequality, caste discrimination, court backlogs, and inadequate training and resources for police to deal with sexual crimes.
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Socialism appears to be having a moment in the United States. According to surveys by Gallup, 43% of Americans now view socialism positively, the highest share since they began asking the question in 2010. Socialism still trails capitalism and free enterprise, but it has overtaken big business, which just 35% of Americans view positively.
Why now? One possible reason is the affordability squeeze. Gallup’s separate research found that Americans who see benefits in socialism associate it with economic security, affordable health care and housing, and lowering inequality. At the same time, candidates who call themselves “democratic socialists” – like Angie Nixon in Florida, Janeese Lewis George in Washington, D.C. – have gained attention ahead of the midterms, scoring a handful of high-profile primary victories. The most high profile example is Abdul El-Sayed, who won the Democratic Senate nomination in Michigan — though does not identify as a DSA member but draws support from the Democratic Socialists of America.
But socialism’s breakthrough came in late 2025, when Zohran Mamdani won the New York City mayoral election. Since 2025, socialism’s positive rating has risen four percentage points, from 39% to 43% today.
Four years ago, a peace agreement ended one of the deadliest conflicts of this century, the Tigray War in northern Ethiopia. Fighting between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a political party and armed rebel movement controlling the northern Tigray region, claimed 600,000 lives and displaced over 5 million people. Now that conflict has reignited – and with it, fears that fighting could spread across the Horn of Africa.
Last week, forces belonging to the TPLF seized three airports and attacked the states of Afar and Amhara, located in northeastern Ethiopia. The offensive came days after the TPLF joined six other armed rebel groups in forming the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival (EPFAS), which seeks to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
In response, Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to the Tigray region, and the Ethiopian military claims it killed, wounded, or captured more than 500 rebel fighters. The TPLF’s vice president, Amanuel Assefa, declared the region to be in a state of “full-blown war.” The question now is whether the fighting will remain Ethiopian or ignite a wider conflict, drawing in other regional players.
The origins of the conflict. The Tigray War grew out of a political rupture between Abiy and the TPLF, the party which had dominated Ethiopian politics for decades before Abiy came to power in 2018. Abiy sought to reduce ethnic tensions by unifying different Ethiopian parties into his “Prosperity Party,” but the TPLF refused to join, fearing a loss of influence. In 2020, Abiy delayed national elections because of the COVID-19 pandemic, angering Tigrayan officials who saw this as an authoritarian tactic to hold onto power.
In response, Tigrayan officials defied the federal government and held their own regional vote. Tigrayan forces then attacked a federal military base in the region, purportedly to steal weapons, prompting a military retaliation from Addis Ababa, which drew in neighboring Eritrea, whose relationship with the TPLF had soured in a 1998 border war. Fighting ended with the 2022 Pretoria Agreement between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF, which allowed the TPLF to remain a major political force in Tigray.
But alliances that shaped the war have since shifted. Eritrea, despite supporting Ethiopia during the conflict, resented being excluded from the Pretoria Agreement. Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea further deteriorated after Abiy began publicly asserting landlocked Ethiopia’s right to ocean access. Eritrea viewed this with alarm as it strategically controls important ports on the Red Sea, including that of Assab, to which Ethiopia claims a historical right of access. Addis Ababa now accuses Eritrea of financing EPFAS, which Eritrea denies.
The regional dominoes that threaten to fall. Could a wider war break out? Some experts believe the conflict could potentially draw in Sudanese forces, currently fighting a bloody civil war, and produce a chain reaction across the region and even in the Middle East. For example, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are aligned with opposing sides in Sudan and have relationships across the Horn of Africa with states including Ethiopia and Somalia. Ethiopia’s relationship with Egypt is also a potential flashpoint: the two countries rival each other over access to the Nile, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and regional influence.
But Amaka Anku, Eurasia Group’s Africa expert, believes this scenario overstates the capabilities and incentives of the players involved.
Anku argues that unlike during the Tigray War, “the central government is much stronger and TPLF is much weaker.” Since signing the Pretoria Agreement, Addis Ababa has consolidated power and acquired more military equipment, including drones. The TPLF, meanwhile, needs allies to fight its battles and may be attempting to provoke an Ethiopian government overreaction that generates greater outside support, Anku said. But that may not come: Ethiopia possesses far larger armed forces than Eritrea, making it unlikely to risk a preemptive strike that could give Abiy a pretext to attack Eritrea directly.
Anku applies the same caution to Sudan. Tigrayan fighters are accused of supporting forces aligned with the Sudanese government, while Addis Ababa worries about cooperation between Sudan and the TPLF. But Anku describes those relationships as loose and transactional, not a formal military alliance. She considers a Sudanese army intervention against Ethiopia that triggers a full-scale conflict “very unlikely.”
Interconnected conflicts, but not yet a regional war. The Horn’s conflicts are intertwined, with armed groups, governments and outside powers supporting one another’s enemies for immediate strategic interests. But they don’t amount to a single regional war – at least not yet.
For now, the greater risk is less a grand conflagration than continuing flare-ups of recurring violence, Anku said. But with the Pretoria Agreement fraying, Ethiopia and Eritrea estranged, and Sudan already at war, there are more pathways for escalation – even if, as Anku argued, few of the players have the capacity or the incentive to take them.
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As countries work to meet development goals amid funding constraints, AI is emerging as a potential tool to accelerate progress and expand opportunity. On the sidelines of the 81st UN General Assembly, Robert Opp of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Justin Spelhaug of Microsoft Elevate join GZERO’s Tony Maciulis to discuss how AI can support development and humanitarian efforts around the world.
Opp says AI represents a “super accelerator” for development, from speeding up disaster assessments to helping small businesses reach new markets. But he warns that “introducing AI as an isolated technology is actually not going to go anywhere” without skills, connectivity, and institutions.
Spelhaug emphasizes that access must be paired with skills, particularly in education, where poorly implemented AI tools can “degrade learning.” He also highlights AI’s potential to improve humanitarian aid efficiency and bring greater precision to where aid dollars are directed.
This conversation is presented by GZERO Media in partnership with Microsoft. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical conversations on the geopolitical forces reshaping our world.
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