Turkeys reject Trump's pardon
November 26, 2025
It’s been all downhill since Iran-Contra, tbh. #puppetregime
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Graphic Truth: Turkey is cheaper, but inflation still gobbles
6h
One thing to be grateful for this US Thanksgiving is that a turkey dinner for 10 people has gotten cheaper for the third year in a row. That’s in line with a broader trend in which US inflation has cooled since hitting a 40 year peak back in 2022. But nearly 65% of Americans are still upset about rising prices, according to a recent Pew Research Poll. How to reconcile those two things? Look at the big picture. Americans have just been through the most inflationary five-year period since Madonna’s “Like a Virgin” topped the charts. That’s what shapes people’s perceptions, more than year-to-year data. And remember, even if inflation is only around 3%, that still means prices are only going in one direction: up. Here’s a look at the data – discuss it at the table!
Five stories to be thankful for
6h
Well, it’s about to be Thanksgiving in the United States. Although not all of our global readers celebrate that particular holiday, it’s still good to remind ourselves that while the world offers plenty of fodder for doomscrolling and despair, there are still lots of things to be grateful for too. Here’s a selection of five good news stories from around the world in 2025!
First, energy is getting cleaner, faster. This year, renewables quietly overtook coal as the planet’s top source of electricity – a milestone driven almost single-handedly by China’s clean-energy boom. Beijing added more solar capacity than the rest of the world combined, pushing solar-panel prices to record lows and making renewables the cost-effective choice for fast-growing power grids in the developing world. Across Africa, solar panel imports from China rose 60% over the last year, trends echoed from Malaysia to Mexico. Yes, the US wobbled a bit, with fossil-fuel use increasing and green-energy projects scuttled, but analysts still call 2025 a “turning point”: coal’s long, filthy reign is ending.
Second, people are much kinder than we think. Global data shows lost wallets are returned at about twice the rate people expect, according to the World Happiness Report. The researchers found that most of us dramatically underestimate the honesty of our neighbors. And that that optimism gap matters. The researchers found that believing you live among people who’d return your wallet turns out to be one of the strongest predictors of happiness. Big smiles to the Nordic countries, which top both the happiness rankings and the wallet-return charts.
Third, fragile but real diplomatic breakthroughs emerged in long-running conflicts. Whether you love or hate US President Donald Trump’s diplomatic style, he has made progress in stopping some of the world’s most intractable conflicts. In June, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Rwandan-backed M23 rebels agreed to US-brokered peace negotiations and signed a “comprehensive” peace framework in Qatar this month – their most concrete progress in years. Meanwhile, in August, Armenia and Azerbaijan’s leaders agreed to a political framework to end the 37-year long Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. And in Gaza, Hamas and Israel agreed to the first phase of a ceasefire. While the crucial second phase is riddled with challenges, the (mostly) sustained pause in violence has allowed for desperately-needed humanitarian aid to Gaza and diplomatic negotiations on the enclave’s future.
Fourth, stranded astronauts finally made it home. NASA’s Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams returned to Earth after an unplanned nine-month stay on the International Space Station. The pair were ferried back to earth by a SpaceX ship, which was greeted by dolphins when it splashed down off the Florida coast. Their eight-day mission stretched to more than a year after Boeing’s Starliner ran into trouble and couldn’t return back to earth, but they kept busy while waiting for their rescue: they ran experiments, went on spacewalks, and even celebrated Christmas in orbit. Williams now holds the record for most spacewalk hours by a woman.
And finally, the Smithsonian National Zoo is about to have another elephant in the room. Twelve-year-old Nhi Linh is expecting her first calf — the zoo’s first in 25 years! Early ultrasounds of the 150-pound fetus suggest everything looks healthy. The team is now reinforcing the enclosure for a newborn who is expected to arrive before spring, a symbol of home for a species with fewer than 50,000 living in the wild.
In news cycles that often swirl around negativity, these stories remind us that progress – whether in geopolitics or the pachyderm-population – marches on. Happy Thanksgiving!
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What We’re Watching: Another glitch in Russia-Ukraine talks, UK Labour Party to raise taxes to record levels, Tensions spike in Syria’s third-largest city
6h
Witkoff leak is only the latest glitch in Russia-Ukraine negotiations
A leaked recording of an October call between US special envoy Steve Witkoff and a senior Kremlin official is the latest drama to spill into the Ukraine peace talks. In the call, scooped by Bloomberg, Witkoff – already mistrusted by the Ukrainians – gives tips on how Russian President Vladimir Putin can soften up US President Donald Trump in negotiations. This follows the mini-drama in which US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was forced to affirm this week that the White House had “authored” an initial 28-point plan, after he reportedly told US senators that it hadn’t. Meanwhile Russia is still warning that it won’t accept a deal that strays from its red lines, while accusing Europe of “meddling” in the talks. With so much drama and division, we are keenly tuned in to see what plan, if any, emerges in the coming days.
Will the UK’s new budget right the ship?
The UK government will impose record tax hikes in order to balance the state’s finances while supporting more social spending, according to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ new budget. The tax burden will reach 38% of GDP by 2030, the highest in UK history, with the help of a de-facto income tax rise and a new tax on homes worth above £2 million. Labour supporters will cheer the increased social spending but the higher overall tax burden, even on less affluent families, could sting at the polls. Markets swung forward and back in response to the announcement, suggesting they weren’t fully convinced by Labour’s efforts to balance its books. We’re watching to see how this bold fiscal move will affect Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his flailing government.
Syria’s sectarian tensions flare again after brutal double killing
The gruesome murder of a Sunni bedouin couple in the Syrian city of Homs has stoked sectarian tensions in one of the country’s largest cities. The husband and wife were found dead in their home, with sectarian epithets scrawled at the scene. The killings set off a brief wave of reprisals against local Alawites, the sect to which the now-ousted Assad dynasty belonged. Since overthrowing the Assad regime a year ago, President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former jihadist who has remade himself as a statesman, has struggled to contain sectarian violence, some of it stoked by his own men. The situation in Homs, a strategically located city that is home to Sunnis, Shia, Christians, and Alawites, is an important test case.
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Hard Numbers: Trump admin makes temp Gaza property plan, Taiwan to boost defenses, Tragic fire in Hong Kong, Brazil’s Lula leads in poll, Saudi opens door to liquor cabinet
7h
20,000-25,000: As part of his vision for Gaza, US President Donald Trump is drawing on his background as a real estate guy, with plans to build a number of temporary residential compounds for Palestinians in eastern Gaza, each of which would house as many as 20,000-25,000 people. The aim is to entice Gazans sheltering elsewhere in the strip to move back to the area, which they were driven out of by the Israeli military. Officials say the first compound won’t be ready for months.
$40 billion: Taiwan will boost defense spending by $40 billion in order to face down the persistent threat from China, which considers the self-governing island part of its own territory. The US, which backs Taiwan, has called on Taiwan to fund more of its own military. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly discussed Taiwan this week. Meanwhile, for more on the rising tension between China and Japan over Taiwan, see our recent report here.
13: At least 13 people have died after a fire tore through a group of apartment buildings in Hong Kong on Wednesday. Hundreds of firefighters are at the scene seeking to quench the blaze. The cause remains unclear, but the buildings were enveloped in bamboo scaffolding, which the government had started to phase out in March over safety concerns.
46%: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would win in any plausible matchup in the 2027 presidential election, according to a new poll. In a face-to-face with São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, Lula would win 46%, while the man widely considered the right-wing heir to former President Jair Bolsonaro would win 39%. The jailed Bolsonaro remains the kingmaker of the Brazilian right.
2: Cheers to this, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will open two more liquor stores for foreigners, one each in Jeddah and Dhahran. Last year they opened one in the capital, Riyadh as part of a wider modernization drive that is meant to bring more foreign tourists and workers into the country. Name us a cocktail! The Jeddah Julip? The Dhahran Daiquiri? Let us know your proposal, we’ll publish the best ones next week.
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Bolsonaro reacts as Trump scraps Brazil tariffs
25 November
Not just for a cheap coffee, no. #puppetregime
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Hard Numbers: France’s Bardella would win an election today, Trump’s support among Latinos falls, Fox hunts for a seat in the Bahamas, and Hitler returns
November 25, 2025
0: There are zero candidates who would beat French far-right leader Jordan Bardella in a head-to-head presidential runoff, according to a new poll. Bardella, heir to Marine Le Pen as head of the National Rally party, would win more than a third of the vote in the first round. Caveat: it’s early – the election won’t be held until 2027. What’s more, the second round could be very close, depending on Bardella’s opponent. For more on the “unraveling” of France, read Ian Bremmer’s recent piece here.
9: US President Donald Trump’s approval among Latino adults has fallen nine points since the start of his presidency to just 27%, according to Pew. In 2024, Trump won nearly half the Latino vote, a record for a GOP candidate. Among Latinos who chose Trump in 2024, his approval is still a robust 81%, but even that is down from a high of 93% when he took office. Trump’s handling of immigration and the economy underline the growing disapproval.
39: Will island politics be a slam-dunk for former Los Angeles Lakers star Rick Fox? The three-time champion, who retired from the NBA in 2004, is taking a jumpshot at public service in the Bahamas, announcing that he’ll run for one of the island nation’s 39 constituencies in the next election. Fox holds Bahamian citizenship through his father.
2: Well, Adolf Hitler is back. The Namibian lawmaker who has that unfortunate name is set to win his second election in a row, representing the constituency of Ompundja in a landslide. Namibia is a former German colony. Hitler, 59, says his father “probably didn’t understand” the meaning of the name, and that it’s “too late” to change it now.
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Earlier this month, Pakistan’s National Assembly rammed through a controversial constitutional amendment that grants Field Marshal Asim Munir, the country’s de facto leader, lifelong immunity from all crimes.
“What was effectively already de facto military rule has become constitutional,” said Eurasia Group’s South Asia Practice Head Pramit Pal Chaudhuri. “It’s effectively a constitutional coup.”
So how did Pakistan get here? As a country flanked by two longstanding rivals – India and Afghanistan – Pakistan has relied heavily on its military throughout its 80-year history. As a result, military leaders have typically wielded immense political power, controlling the country both directly and indirectly for most, if not all, of Pakistan’s near-80-year existence.
The military faced a challenge, though, in 2018, when the charismatic and telegenic former cricket star Imran Khan won a free and fair election on a populist platform. Although he initially enjoyed the support of “The Establishment,” as the military is known, Khan quickly got into conflict with the generals. One of his most brazen acts against the brass was, in fact, to reassign the head of the country’s spy unit at the time, one Asim Munir.
Khan’s power didn’t last. He was ousted in 2022, and jailed on corruption charges. His party would remain popular, winning the most seats in the 2024 election, but the government – under military influence – refused to seat many of its female and minority candidates, leaving Khan’s party in the minority.
As for Munir, he would get his own back: with Khan out of power and behind bars, the one-time spy chief rose the ranks of the military to become army chief. In May of this year, he seized on the latest Kashmir crisis – which put India and Pakistan on the brink of all-out war for several days – to become Pakistan’s second-ever five-star general, the highest possible military ranking. His latest effort goes a step further, amending the 1973 constitution in a way that opens the path for an outright power grab.
“One of the things in the 1973 constitution is: if you declare martial law, you’re tried for treason,” Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa, a Pakistani military expert at King’s College London, told GZERO. “So if tomorrow [Munir] declares martial law, he cannot be tried for treason.”
Munir’s in charge – what issues does he face? First and foremost, the economy. Pakistan’s economy has been stagnant for 50 years. In the 1970s it was the richest country in South Asia – now it’s one of the poorest. In addition, it has $6.5 billion in outstanding IMF loans, the fifth-most in the world. Many Pakistanis are seeking opportunities abroad.
“If you look at the size of the middle class in Pakistan, it’s effectively shrinking, which is the exact opposite of what you should want in a developing country. Because the taxation system is rising and incomes are not rising,” said Chaudhuri. “If you’re a smart young businessman, you fly to Dubai.”
The field marshal has been cozying up to the Trump administration – an unusual move given Pakistan’s close ties to China – in a bid to sell some of its sizable deposits of rare-earth minerals to the United States.
The other major issue for Munir is the Taliban, the one-time allies of Pakistan who now hold power again next door in Afghanistan. Last month, the two countries had one of their worst border disputes in years, and now Pakistan is bombing the Afghan capital of Kabul in response to a spate of terrorist attacks in Islamabad.
There’s one thing Munir won’t have to worry about. Pakistan’s opposition is toothless right now, Siddiqa said. The opposition has a top-down structure, meaning that with Khan in jail, the party is largely adrift, with weak local representation.
What’s more: the government has been cracking down on dissent.
“Imran Khan is in jail, and there’s nobody else around his party which can actually start a public movement, get people out on the streets,” said Siddiqa. “And also, as a result of the May 9 [conflict with India], the media has been managed. People have been tortured, people have been picked up, disappeared, etc. So with that kind of authoritarianism, people are too scared to come out.”relatively modest purchase.
The other major issue for Munir is the Taliban, the one-time allies of Pakistan who now hold power again next door in Afghanistan: last month, the two countries had one of their worst border disputes in years, and now Pakistan is bombing the Afghan capital of Kabul in response to a spate of terrorist attacks in Islamabad.
There’s one thing Munir won’t have to worry about. Pakistan’s opposition is toothless right now, Siddiqa says. The opposition has a top-down structure, meaning that with Khan in jail, the party is largely adrift, with weak local representation.
What’s more: the government has been cracking down on dissent.
“Imran Khan is in jail, and there’s nobody else around his party which can actually start a public movement, get people out on the streets,” said Siddiqa. “And also, as a result of May 9, the media has been managed. People have been tortured, people have been picked up, disappeared, etc. So with that kind of authoritarianism, people are too scared to come out.”
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What We’re Watching: Russia and Ukraine negotiations continue, Trump and Xi make a springtime date, Sudan’s rebels declare unilateral ceasefire
November 25, 2025
Ukraine and Russia still worlds apart as peace talks continue
Moscow said that it would reject any ceasefire deal that doesn’t meet its core demands for more territory, the large-scale disarmament of Ukraine, and a ban on Ukrainian NATO membership. The Kremlin’s cold water comes after Ukraine was all smiles following a fresh round of ceasefire talks with the US yesterday. While the White House seems keen to strike a deal soonest, the two sides are still worlds apart on what they are willing to agree to – Washington has now abandoned its Thanksgiving “deadline” for a deal. Today, Russian and American negotiators will be meeting in the UAE to see if they can narrow the gaps between the two peace plans, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling for a meeting with US President Donald Trump later this week.
Was Taiwan the subject of US-China call?
After talking on the phone Monday, Trump said he will be meeting with Xi Jinping IRL in Beijing in April and that Xi will come to the US for a state visit later in the year. While the White House said that the call had been “very positive” and mainly focused on trade, Chinese state media reported that the call had focused on Taiwan, saying Xi had communicated to Trump that returning Taiwan to return to Chinese control was “integral.” For more on the impact of the US-China rivalry, see our recent piece on how the trade war has hit the US heartland.
Sudan paramilitaries agree to one-sided ceasefire
Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitaries on Monday announced a three month “humanitarian ceasefire” in their brutal, two-and-a-half-year long civil war with the Sudanese military. The plan was brokered by the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt. Good news, maybe, but there’s a huge catch: the RSF announced the move after the army rejected it because of the involvement of the UAE, which has faced persistent accusations that it backs the RSF. The conflict has killed tens of thousands of people and driven 14 million from their homes. Both sides are accused of widespread war crimes.
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In this “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer tackles a growing question: How is the Trump administration performing as the year wraps up?
He says the strongest pushback is coming “on the international front,” where Trump's leverage is proving weaker than expected.
China is the clearest example. After aggressive tariffs and export controls, Beijing “called America’s raise” and now has Trump moving toward approving advanced Nvidia chip sales in exchange for easier access to critical minerals.
Brazil is also pushing back, despite sweeping US tariffs tied to former president Bolsonaro’s imprisonment.
The big wild card: a looming Supreme Court ruling that could limit Trump’s authority on tariffs.
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Former US Ambassador to Venezuela James Story warns that removing Maduro would be the easy part—what comes next is the real challenge.
In this clip from Ian Bremmer’s interview with former US Ambassador to Venezuela James Story, the two discuss the risks and realities of a possible regime change in Caracas. While the Maduro government is increasingly isolated and unpopular, Story cautions that the collapse of the regime would only be the beginning of a much larger crisis.
“For 25 years, the institutions in that country have been systematically destroyed,” Story says, adding that Venezuela has become a failed state teeming with criminal organizations like the ELN, Hezbollah, and the Tren de Aragua. Any transitional government, he argues, would have to rely on a military that has long been complicit in repression and corruption. “The easy part would be getting rid of Maduro,” Story says. “The hard work happens after that.”
Drawing on lessons from past US interventions in Iraq, Libya, and Haiti, Story urges careful planning and warns against dismantling institutions too quickly. If the US plays a role in removing Maduro, he says, it must also take responsibility for what comes next: “You break it, you fix it.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
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In this episode of Tools and Weapons, Microsoft Vice Chair and President Brad Smith sits down with Ed Policy, President and CEO of the Green Bay Packers, to discuss how purpose-driven leadership and innovation are shaping the future of one of the world’s most iconic sports franchises. Ed shares how technology and community-focused initiatives, from Titletown Tech to health and safety innovations on the field, are transforming not just the game of football, but the economy and culture of Green Bay itself. He explains how combining strategic vision with investment in local startups is keeping talent in the Midwest and creating opportunities that extend far beyond Lambeau Field.
Subscribe and find new episodes monthly, wherever you listen to podcasts.
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down the controversy around Trump's 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan.
He says the proposal was “mostly drafted by the Russians” and loaded with “complete non-starters” for Ukraine, from ceding more territory to reducing troop levels and granting blanket amnesty for war crimes.
Ian explains that while allies publicly “appreciate the American effort,” he notes that few are buying the plan’s substance. With Europe divided and Russia sensing momentum, he warns that “the war is not close to over,” and that the next phase will likely be shaped by battlefield realities, not diplomacy.
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Hard Numbers: Israel assassinates Hezbollah commander, DOGE gets DOGE’d, Ethiopian volcano erupts, Not much to show for COP30
November 24, 2025
5: The Israeli military assassinated a senior Hezbollah commander in an airstrike on the Lebanese capital of Beirut on Sunday. The attack killed at least five people overall. Lebanon’s president lambasted the strike. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the commander was trying to help Hezbollah regroup.
8: DOGE has been DOGE’d, with a White House official declaring that the Department of Government Efficiency – which, under Tesla owner Elon Musk, tried to slash government spending – no longer exists. The department still had eight months left before the end of its charter.
12,000: A long-dormant Ethiopian volcano, Hayli Gubbi, erupted for the first time in nearly 12,000 years, sending ash 9 miles high and drifting across the Red Sea. No casualties were reported, but ash is strangling the local vegetation and threatening local herders’ livelihoods.
1.5: As COP30 comes to a close, the conference concludes with an agreement projecting that the world will likely exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming in the next five years, with few promises made to stop it. The agreement did not mention fossil fuel curtailment, and instead focused on climate change adaptation, in a sign that countries are prioritizing energy security over climate commitments.
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