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What We’re Watching: Anti-graft protests resurface in the Philippines, Polish railway hit, Trump flips on Epstein files vote
Members of the religious group Iglesia ni Cristo (Church of Christ) wave their hands during the first of a three-day anti-corruption protest at the Quirino Grandstand, Manila, Philippines, November 16, 2025.
Anti-graft protests restart in the Philippines, with help of a church
More than 200,000 people took to the streets of Manila, the Philippine capital, on Monday to protest against suspected corruption in flood-control projects. A day prior, a protestant megachurch organized a rally in the Catholic-majority country of 114 million people. These aren’t the first anti-graft demonstrations in the Southeast Asian nation this fall: there were violent protests in September after a government audit showed that the government had spent billions of dollars over the last few years on substandard or non-existent projects. A pair of typhoons also ripped through the country in recent weeks, possibly adding more fuel to the fire. Protest leaders have planned another rally later this month.
Polish railway attacked
In Poland, an explosion damaged a train line that connects Warsaw to Ukraine. The line has been used to transport aid and weapons to Ukraine, and while the investigation is ongoing, Poland’s government has said that it was a “highly probable” act of sabotage by Russia. Russia has targeted Poland for being an aid hub for Ukraine – seemingly carrying out cyber attacks, arson, and other acts of sabotage since the start of the war. If Poland uncovers the attack was carried out by Moscow, it will mark an escalation of the conflict.
Trump does U-turn on Epstein files
After piling pressure on lawmakers to halt the release of the US Justice Department files on the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, President Donald Trump reversed course and said Congress should release the files. Trump said he had “nothing to hide.” It was a remarkable about-face, and showed that congressional Republicans can still press the president – it has often been the other way around since the former real estate mogul came to Washington. GOP lawmakers will hope the vote reassures voters – including the MAGA base – ahead of next year’s midterms that they are serious about investigating the Epstein case. There are still doubts over whether the bill will come to pass: The House will bring it up this week, but it remains an open question whether the Senate votes on it.Hard Numbers: Bangladesh’s ex-PM sentenced to death, Foreign student enrollment in US plummets, Australian schools shut over asbestos, & more
People celebrate the court's verdict after Bangladesh's fugitive former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is found guilty and sentenced to death in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on November 17, 2025. The International Crimes Tribunal on November 17 sentences fugitive former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death for crimes against humanity in a murder case of the July uprising.
1,400: Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s ousted prime minister, was sentenced to death on Monday for her crackdown on student-led protests last year. While Hasina is currently safely living in exile in India, the decision was celebrated by the families of the 1,400 people the UN estimates were killed during the uprisings.
17%: The number of international students enrolling in American universities fell 17% this fall. The Trump administration has tried to limit the amount of foreign students that come to US schools, and has revoked visas of thousands of foreign students – and even arrested others – who have expressed views that are critical of the US or its allies.
70: The Australian Capital Territory government shut 70 schools in the state on Monday over fears that a colored play sand contained asbestos. Schools in other states also shut. Asbestos contractors are working to clear the schools.
51%: Hamas’ popularity in Gaza rose to 51%, per an October poll from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, up eight points from a prior survey in May. Security appears to be the main reason for this rise, as Gazans have credited the group with cutting crime and looting. However, Hamas’ rising popularity may hurt US-led efforts to disarm the militant group.
30%: No candidate received a majority in Chile’s elections on Sunday, but right-wing José Antonio Kast is the favorite to win in a run-off in December against Communist party candidate Jeannette Jara. While Jara won slightly more of the vote – 26% compared to Kast’s 24% – the other right-wing candidates took 30% of the vote, signaling that the electorate is primed for a rightward shift.Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman reacts next to US President Donald Trump during the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 13, 2025.
For the first time in seven years, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is returning to Washington, DC, this week. While crude oil has traditionally pulled the two countries close together, it is now the great power-chess game between the US and China that is making them join forces.
MBS, as the de-facto Saudi leader is known, and US President Donald Trump have much to discuss when it comes to peace in the Middle East. The chances of Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel by joining the Abraham Accords are slim. Nonetheless, defense agreements will be on the table, as Saudi Arabia seeks to bolster its protections in what has been a tumultuous year in the region.
The US-Saudi relationship has come full circle since the crown prince’s last visit in 2018. Since then, there was the killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi – reportedly sanctioned by the crown prince – at a Saudi consulate in Turkey, which created major tensions. Those were exacerbated after Riyadh got upset with Washington when it refused to respond to the 2019 Houthi attack on Saudi oil facilities. Then, during the 2020 campaign, Joe Biden suggested Saudi Arabia should be a “pariah.” Biden then sought to ease tensions in 2022, as he wanted Riyadh to pump more oil to alleviate high inflation rates. And now the AI race between the US and China has pushed Riyadh and Washington closer together.
“[Khashoggi’s death] hung like a pall over MBS reputation in the United States,” Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Initiative in Washington, told GZERO. “Time has worn away the sting a little bit.”
The Middle East has also changed dramatically over the past seven years. Israel was locked in a brutal war with Hamas for the past two years, with a fragile ceasefire keeping the peace for now. More Arab nations are concerned about the conflict spilling over, too, especially after Israel bombed Qatar in a failed bid to kill Hamas leaders. Meanwhile, the influence of Saudi’s top enemy, Iran, has diminished, as its proxies in the region – the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza – have all been hobbled or even removed.
“Iran is no longer the strategic threat that it was seven years ago,” Ibish said. “[But] there is still this need on the part of Saudi Arabia for American security guarantees.”
So what will Trump and bin Salman discuss? First and foremost for the crown prince will be defense. There are two aspects to this: firstly, Saudi wants a defense agreement akin to what the US signed with Qatar, ensuring that the US will defend the Gulf state in case of attack. Secondly, the Saudis want to buy F-35 planes from the US – Israel is the only Middle East country that has successfully negotiated and executed a purchase agreement of F-35s.
“The US public and US government and Trump have been a little bit more critical of Israel,” Alia Awadallah, who was a Pentagon official during Biden’s term in office, told GZERO, suggesting that the US may be willing to sell to a country other than Israel. “[Saudi Arabia] will be trying to assess whether it’s actually realistic to get that type of sale through both the White House, but also through Congress, which would have to approve it.”
The US is sure to bring up something that has layed tantalizingly out of reach: the Abraham Accords. Trump is reportedly still pressing MBS to recognize Israel and join the Accords, arguing that the peace he successfully brokered in Gaza should be enough to prompt Riyadh to do so. But the crown prince has repeatedly said that he wouldn’t do this until Israel recognizes a Palestinian state, so the chances of him signing the accords on this trip are close to null.
“At a minimum, this requires phase two of the Gaza ceasefire being implemented, and Israeli assurances regarding the Palestinian right of self determination,” said Eurasia Group’s Middle East Director Firas Maksad. “And we’re not there yet.”
If there’s no agreement on the Accords, there’s likely to be more on artificial intelligence. It is this area – rather than oil – that is pushing the two countries closer together, per Maksad. Trump’s visit to Riyadh in May was all about AI, with Saudi firms pledging billions of dollars in investments. In return, Riyadh wants access to items like Nvidia’s AI chips for its data centers. Meanwhile the US wants to see those incoming investments, while ensuring that Saudi secures rights to critical minerals in Africa to grant US access and block China from getting them. This trip will be a chance to firm up these AI ties.
“Although the headlines continue to be animated by the prospect of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia… that is the wrong lens to be looking at things,” said Maksad. “This [US-Saudi] relationship is increasingly shaped by great power competitions, particularly US-China dynamics, rather than anything specific to the region and the Arab-Israeli conflict.”
What We’re Watching: Epstein files on the US House floor, Ukraine hits Russia where it hurts, RSF consolidated its grip on Darfur
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) after signing the funding bill to end the U.S. government shutdown, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 12, 2025.
The US House set to vote to release Epstein files
The House of Representatives will vote next week to compel the Justice Department to release the Epstein files, after a trove of documents this week further linked President Donald Trump with the late sex offender. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have opposed the bill, but are braced for scores of their party to vote for the release – potentially over 100, according to Politico. Their defections signal that representatives fear being seen as implicated in a cover up could come back to bite them ahead of 2026 Midterm elections. Polling shows that 67% of Republicans agree that the administration should release all the documents. However, even if the bill does pass, it is unlikely to make it out of the GOP-controlled Senate, or get the White House signature it needs to become law.
For Ukraine, is offense the best form of defense?
Ukraine is on the verge of losing another town in the eastern part of the country, and at a great cost, raising questions over whether it should spend so much defending these areas. What’s more, Russia hit several residential towers in Kyiv last night. But Ukraine did have a response, using drones and cruise missiles to strike Russia’s Novorossiysk port, which sits on the Black Sea, and halt exports of 2% of the whole world’s oil supply. Fittingly, crude prices rose 2% as a result. With Ukraine struggling to hold onto towns out east, is a better option to halt Russia a continuation of strikes deep inside enemy territory?
World’s worst war is about to get even worse
Sudan’s horrific civil war is set for a fresh escalation as the paramilitary forces battling the army look to open a new front. The Rapid Support Forces, having consolidated power in the West and the South – where they are accused of recent mass killings and acts of genocide – are now eyeing an eastward push to the Kordofan region. Sudan’s civil war, now in its third year, has already displaced at least 13 million people, forcing some four million into neighboring countries. Estimates of the death toll run to 400,000. The US yesterday called for an arms embargo against the RSF, but the effect is unclear: a recent Washington-brokered ceasefire disintegrated within days.
Supporters of Jose Antonio Kast, presidential candidate of the far-right Republican Party, wave Chilean flags as they attend one of Kast's last closing campaign rallies, ahead of the November 16 presidential election, in Santiago, Chile, on November 11, 2025.
This Sunday, close to 16 million Chilean voters will head to the polls in a starkly polarized presidential election shaped by rising fears of crime and immigration.
The vote comes after a tumultuous few years in normally staid Chile, the world’s largest copper producer and the wealthiest large economy in Latin America.
Under the presidency of youthful left-winger Gabriel Boric, who was elected in 2021 following mass protests over inequality, Chilean voters rejected two separate rewrites of the constitution which were meant to address living costs, pensions, and employment.
One was too liberal, enshrining “cosmovisions” in the national charter. The other was too conservative, hewing too closely to the existing constitution written half a century ago under rightwing autocrat Augusto Pinochet.
Now, despite some successes in strengthening labor laws and winning a bruising fight over pension reforms, Boric is set to leave office deeply unpopular, with an approval rating in the 30s and an economy in the doldrums.
After so much upheaval, “the public appetite for sweeping changes has receded,” says Maria Luisa Puig, an expert at Eurasia Group.
Chileans’ main concerns now are, as in many Latin American countries, crime and migration. Nearly half of voters say crime is the number one issue for them, while 30% point to the border, according to Chilean pollster Activa. Only about 20% cite unemployment.
Although homicides have been falling since a 2022 peak, they are still double what they were ten years ago. Kidnappings remain near historic highs.
At the same time, immigration has soared, in particular from Venezuela – there are nearly 700,000 Venezuelan migrants in the country, almost tenfold the number from 2017. A rash of high profile killings and shootouts by Venezuelan gangs has fueled a backlash against immigrants more broadly.
Who’s running in the election?
Topping the polls, with about 27% support, is Jeanette Jara, a lifelong member of the Communist Party who served as Boric’s Labor Minister. She wants to increase the minimum wage, boost social spending, and modernize the police.
Trailing her are two hard-right politicians. One is José Antonio Kast, an ultra-conservative Catholic father of nine who lost to Boric in 2021, who wants to seal the border, cut spending, and expand prisons. He polls at roughly 20%. The other, libertarian Johannes Kaiser, goes further, pledging to slash two-thirds of government ministries immediately, to crack down on migration, and to withdraw from global pacts on climate change and human rights. Like Kast, he openly admires Pinochet.
Jara’s lead is deceptive. The right wing vote is badly fragmented – a result of the conservative candidates’ inability to agree on a unified primary earlier this year.
With no one set to win more than 50% of the vote, the election will go to a December runoff featuring the top two finishers from this Sunday. Jara will be one of them, and Kast is likely to be the other, though Kaiser has seen a late bump in the polls.
Polls suggest Jara, facing a united right wing and conservative vote, would lose in any head-to-head matchup. With Chileans in a “throw-the-bums out” frame of mind, her ties to Boric are a liability.
In the end, Puig says, “this is a ‘change’ election.” And according to polls, Chileans are ready for it. For the first time in more than four years, a majority say they are “optimistic” about the future of the country.
More soon: the results should be in by Monday morning.
Hard Numbers: India’s Modi has excellent election day, US agrees to cut Swiss tariffs, 12-year manhunt for Assad ally ends, & More
India's Home Minister Amit Shah and India's Defence Minister Rajnath Singh present a garland to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporters celebrate the Bihar state assembly election results, at the party headquarters in New Delhi, India, November 14, 2025.
200: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition is headed for a landslide win in Bihar, securing over 200 of 243 seats in a key test of the leader’s popularity ahead of major state and national elections. The victory strengthens his fragile federal coalition and weakens the opposition
15%: The US and Switzerland reached a deal to bring tariffs down on the European country from 39% to 15%, lowering the price of pharmaceuticals, gold, watches, and chocolate that Americans import from the Swiss. The high rate was in part because of the high trade surplus that Switzerland had with the United States. The US also cut levies on certain products from four Latin American countries.
12: A 12-year manhunt for a Syrian official accused of war crimes has finally come to an end, after Austrian officials indicted him for torture. Brig. Gen. Khaled al-Halabi, who hid in plain sight in Paris and Vienna, was captured last December, but was only charged on Wednesday in connection with actions he took while helping to quell the Arab Spring from 2011 to 2013.
10: Canada is still taking Trump’s missives against them personally: October marked the 10th consecutive month of decline in the number of Canadians traveling to the United States. Air travel fell 24% compared to this month last year, and car travel by 30%. The slowdown is hurting some US businesses.
20,000: Germany’s government has created a new military service plan aimed at boosting the number of troops by 20,000 within the next year, taking the total enlisted above 200,000. Under the plan, all 18-year-old men will have to fill out a questionnaire on whether they are suitable to serve and, from 2027, undergo medical screening. Germany’s military past means it has been reluctant to remilitarize in the post-war period – until now.
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South Sudan President Salva Kiir prepares to welcome Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni at the Juba International Airport, ahead of meetings aimed at averting a new civil war after South Sudan's First Vice President Riek Machar was placed under house arrest, in Juba, South Sudan April 3, 2025.
South Sudan’s president fires another VP
President Salva Kiir continued to take a wrecking ball to his country’s leadership structure this week, firing Benjamin Bol Mel, who was one of his vice presidents. He also sacked the central bank governor and the head of the revenue authority without giving reasons for the removals. The move comes after President Kiir in March put then-Vice President Rick Machar under house arrest, before charging him with murder in September – Kiir and Machar had entered a power-sharing agreement to end the civil war. Experts are concerned that Kiir’s moves will pull the sub-Saharan state back into civil war, only five years after it ended.
Iran’s water crisis threatens to empty Tehran
Iran may have to evacuate its capital Tehran – home to 10 million people – if it doesn’t rain by December, according to its President Masoud Pezeshkian. The water crisis is due to decades of mismanagement and inefficient agriculture practices, compounded by a lack of access to new technology because of international sanctions. It comes as Iranians are also enduring frequent electricity and gas shortages, heightening the risk that civil unrest could destabilize the regime.