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A satellite overview shows the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Facility, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, near Qom, Iran, June 29, 2025
1: A new US intelligence assessment says that the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last month destroyed only one of the three sites targeted. While Fordow – Iran’s most fortified enrichment site – was mostly destroyed, the Natanz and Isfahan sites likely did not suffer the same damage. US President Donald Trump, who has said all the sites were “obliterated”, reportedly rejected a more thorough, weeks-long bombing campaign because it would have clashed with his stated objective of disentangling the US from foreign conflicts.
18: The European Union on Friday approved the 18th package of sanctions against Russia over President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The centerpiece of the measures is a new cap on the price that members can pay for Russian oil. The package, which requires unanimous approval from EU members, overcame opposition from Slovakia, which won some exceptions from wider EU plans to phase out Russian energy imports altogether.
10: After ten years in business, a Pakistani bird-seller recently found his bank accounts suddenly frozen by the government. The reason? He had sold a parrot to prominent journalist and bird collector Asad Ali Toor, who routinely ruffles powerful feathers with his criticisms of Pakistan’s military and judiciary. The government has locked the accounts of others who had done business with Toor too, in what looks like a bid to isolate and silence a prominent critic.
32: After 32 seasons on air, the lights will go down next year on the Late Show, CBS's flagship evening comedy and interview program, which has been hosted by Trump-critic Steven Colbert since 2015. CBS said the move was made for financial reasons, as late night shows have been losing audience and revenue for years. Parent company Paramount said it was unrelated to a controversial settlement with Trump over an allegedly biased edit of a “60 Minutes” interview with his 2024 election rival Kamala Harris. Paramount is also, as it happens, currently seeking US government approval for an $8 billion mega-merger with Skydance Media.
⅓: Good news from the front lines of the “War on Cancer”: the age-related death rate from the disease in the US is fully ⅓ lower than it was in the 1990s, mirroring progress in other developed countries. Experts attribute the improvement to a combination of public policy (such as smoking bans) and scientific breakthroughs. Building on those gains, and expanding them globally, remains a key challenge.
People walk out of the West Wing of the White House with "The Epstein Files: Phase 1" binders, in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 27, 2025.
Trump, under GOP pressure, orders release of Epstein materials
“Happy Birthday — and may every day be another wonderful secret,” US President Donald Trump reportedly wrote in a 2003 note to child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, according to the Wall Street Journal. Trump says the letter is “fake” and has threatened to sue media mogul Rupert Murdoch, who owns the Journal. But after days of claiming that the Epstein case was a “hoax” – despite promising to publicize the files during his 2024 campaign – Trump instructed the Justice Department to release grand jury testimony from the Epstein prosecution. This falls short of some MAGA demands for the release of all investigative materials, but Trump is under pressure: 62% of Republicans now believe he is hiding Epstein’s “client list.” Could the scandal undermine Trump’s vice-like hold on his own party?
Brazil’s government doubles down against Bolsonaro
Brazilian police on Friday raided the home of former President Jair Bolsonaro and ordered him to wear an ankle bracelet to prevent him from fleeing the country. The rightwing populist is currently on trial for plotting a coup after losing his 2022 re-election bid. The move comes just days after Trump threatened crippling tariffs on Brazil over the “witch hunt” of his pal Bolsonaro. But current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has found that bucking Trump is popular – the leftwing leader’s dismal ratings have leapt as much as 5 points since he shot back at the “gringo” president. Still, Lula must tread carefully: Brazil is deeply polarized and Bolsonaro is popular with as much as 40% of the population.
North Korea closes beaches to foreigners (shucks!)
Just weeks after North Korea unveiled the Wonsan Kalma Coastal Tourist Zone — the summer’s hottest new vacation spot — the government has abruptly closed it to foreigners. No explanation was given. So far, the only tourists allowed in have been Russian. If you were planning to spend your August beachside in North Korea, we hope you booked refundable tickets — and we can at least offer you this banger from Puppet Regime as a consolation prize.Japanese Prime Minister and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party leader Shigeru Ishiba is surrounded by security policemen as he meets with his supporters after he delivered a campaign speech for his party's candidate Masaaki Waki for the Upper House election in Yokohama, suburban Tokyo, Japan, on July 18, 2025.
Over the past decade, the world’s leading industrial democracies have become intensely polarized, particularly with the rise of anti-immigration populism in Europe and the United States. Japan, where the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has led governments for all but four of the past 70 years, has defied that trend. But with elections looming this weekend, opinion polls say that may be changing fast.
On Sunday, Japan faces elections for the Upper House of the National Diet, the country’s legislature (click here for a good primer on how Upper House elections work). Last fall, the LDP-led coalition government lost its majority in the Lower House, and it badly needs an electoral rebound to avoid a period of uncertainty the country hasn’t seen in decades.
That rebound isn’t looking likely. A poll from broadcaster NHK found that Prime Minister Ishiba Shiberu’s approval rating fell from 39% in June to just 31% this week. His party is faring even worse. Support for the LDP dropped from 31.6% in June to a startling 24% now. Recent surveys from the Yomiuri Shimbun and Nikkei flash similar warning signs.
If the current governing coalition of the LDP and junior partner Komeito loses its Upper House majority, Ishiba’s future as PM will immediately come into question as we see the possible opening of negotiations with opposition parties on joining the government. There’s even a small chance that enough of Japan’s long-fragmented opposition could join forces to form an opposition-led coalition government.
Where is the LDP's public support going? Even in Japan, xenophobic populism is having a political moment as the need for migrant labor in a country with an aging population trumps a longtime public preference for cultural homogeneity and the immigration restrictions that protect it.
Sanseito, a rising party of the right, is an explicitly “Japan First,” anti-globalist, anti-immigrant upstart that’s now capturing enough attention in tough economic times that it could win 10 or more seats on Sunday – the hard-right party currently only has two seats in the Upper House. Given that Sanseito looks to be drawing most of its support from voters who’ve historically backed the LDP, it might also cost the long-dominant party its majority in a close election.
Sanseito is likely benefitting from Japan’s current economic hardship – rising prices, especially for imported food and energy, and falling real wages, in particular – fueled in part by a historically weak yen. Even at a time of dollar weakness, the Japanese currency fell to 149 yen against the dollar earlier this week. All this comes at a time when US President Donald Trump is driving a hard bargain with Japan’s beleaguered government on trade terms.
In short, Japan is not a country prone to political turmoil, but the results this weekend could change that very quickly.
Members of Syrian security forces ride on a back of a truck after Syrian troops entered the predominantly Druze city of Sweida, Syria July 15, 2025.
The latest round of deadly sectarian violence in Syria started off small. Last Sunday, a Bedouin tribe reportedly robbed and attacked a Druze man at a checkpoint in southern Syria, near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The incident quickly escalated into a battle that has left more than 350 people dead and drawn in not only Syrian government forces, but also Israel, which intervened forcefully under the pretext of protecting the Druze.
The clashes add to a series of sectarian flare-ups since the fall of the Assad dictatorship seven months ago. In March, forces aligned with the government massacred nearly 1,500 Alawites in response to a failed rebellion by Assad loyalists within the community, and in April, dozens were killed when the Druze clashed with security forces near Damascus.
Violence of this kind has destabilized an already fragile post-war Syria, raising fresh doubts about the transitional government’s ability to maintain control and safeguard the rights of minority communities. Interim president Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former jihadist who has restyled himself as a statesman since leading the militia coalition that overthrew Assad, has promised to unify and rebuild Syria after a brutal 14-year civil war and decades of dictatorship.
So, what are Syria’s main ethno-sectarian fault lines? Arabs make up the majority of the population, which is about 75% Sunni Muslim.
But there are tensions with several powerful minority groups. They include the Druze, an Israel-friendly community in the South which practices an offshoot of Islam considered heretical by Sunni fundamentalists, and the Alawites, the sect that the Assad family belonged to and conspicuously elevated throughout the dictatorship.
Tensions also persist between Arabs and the Kurds, who operate a semi-autonomous government in northeastern Syria. Although the Kurds have agreed to merge with the new Syrian army, they remain deeply skeptical of al-Sharaa – particularly because of his recent overtures to Turkey, a long-standing opponent of armed Kurdish groups.
Lastly, there are fears of persecution among Syria’s ancient but shrinking Christian population – which came to a head last month when a suicide bombing left dozens dead at a church in Damascus.
The fact that al-Sharaa, a veteran of Al-Qaeda, overthrew the Assad regime atop a coalition of Sunni extremist militias has put all minority groups on edge, fearful of the intentions of a new government that is led largely by Islamists and former jihadists not known for their tolerance of ethnoreligious diversity.
What’s standing in the way of peace? For one thing, Syria’s newly formed army remains fragmented, with many fighters drawn from Islamist extremist groups. Lacking cohesion and a clear chain of command, al-Sharaa can’t rely on the military to effectively control the country.
In fact, the military itself has been part of the problem. Syrian troops were seen to be helping the Bedouins in the recent flareup, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human rights.
“There isn't a well disciplined national army that could take control of all the Syrian territories.” says Ibrahim al-Assil, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “Whenever there is an erupting cycle of violence…they just go and they start fighting, they start looting, and killing as well.”
But there’s also a question about the intentions of a government that often seems to be exacerbating precisely the tensions it claims to be concerned about.
“Whenever there are clashes and confrontations, the authorities in Damascus and Ahmad al-Sharaa try to utilize that as a ploy to gain political achievements,” adds al-Assil. “[While] people could argue if the government was behind that eruption of violence or not, it has certainly used this to gain more power.”
And external actors aren’t helping. Israel, which insists on the demilitarization of Southern Syria, has repeatedly attacked government troops and facilities there under the pretext of defending the Druze. On Wednesday, the IDF escalated tensions further, striking the Syrian defense ministry in Damascus. Al-Sharaa has since redoubled his pledge to protect the Druze amid a fragile ceasefire in the area, but also said Syria is “not afraid of war.”
At the same time, Iran – having lost a key ally in Assad – may also be seeking opportunities to reestablish a foothold in the country.
“Iran is trying to find a way to regain some influence inside Syria and any force or any group that challenges the authority in Damascus creates an opportunity for Iran to find a way back,” says al-Assil.
Can the “new Syria” survive these tensions? “It shows a huge challenge for Ahmad al-Sharaa and, and the legitimacy of the government inside Damascus,” al-Assil says. “Most countries, including the West, do want to see Damascus consolidating inside Syria. They do want to see territorial integrity in Syria.”
But the failure of the Syrian government to stabilize the country could also open the door for more regional interference, complicating things further.
“Violence and fragmentation won’t stay inside Syria,” al-Assil warns. “Most likely, it will spill over to the region.”
What We’re Watching: UK and Germany sign historic defense pact, US Senate cuts public media funds, Togo heads to polls
Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz hold a press conference during a visit to the Airbus factory in Stevenage, Hertfordshire, Britain, July 17, 2025.
UK and Germany sign major bilateral pact
The UK and Germany have signed a wide-ranging pact that covers defense, trade and cultural exchange. The deal is historic – it’s the first ever major bilateral mutual defense agreement between the two countries – and it comes amid wider concerns about the US commitment to defense of its European allies. This is in fact the second big European defense pact that Downing Street has signed recently – it inked a nuclear defense deal with France just last week. The moves suggest that, while last month’s NATO summit ended with smiles, flattery of Trump, and big new spending pledges, Europe’s trust deficit with the US remains significant.
Senate claws back federal funding for foreign aid and public broadcasting
The US Senate on Thursday approved President Donald Trump’s request to cancel $9 billion in previously-earmarked federal funding for foreign aid and public broadcasting. The House will likely follow suit before week’s end. $8 billion of the funds will be cut from USAID-related foreign assistance programs, while $1.1 billion will be pulled from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting – a major funder of PBS and NPR. The broadcast decision, based on accusations of liberal bias, could cripple local news in rural areas and smaller communities, where stations typically rely more heavily on federal funding.
Togo to go to the polls
The small West African nation of Togo holds municipal elections today under unusually tight security, owing to protests touched off by the recent arrest of an anti-government rapper. While nominally a democracy, Togo functions as a military dictatorship, run for decades by one family. Youth-led demonstrations calling for the ouster of Faure Gnassingbe, who has ruled since 2005, gained fresh momentum recently in opposition to constitutional changes that could enable him to rule for life. Any instability in Togo could reverberate more widely in West Africa and the Sahel.
Hard Numbers: Spain top destination for asylum seekers, Pakistan’s deadly monsoons, babies born with three DNA’s, & more
Syrian residents in Madrid have gathered in Puerta del Sol to celebrate the fall and end of the government of President Bashar al-Assad in the Arab country on December 14, 2024.
12,800: Spain replaced Germany in May as the top destination in the European Union for asylum seekers, receiving 12,800 applications that month. Germany had 9,900 asylum applicants, down from 18,700 in the same period last year, as Berlin tries to stem the influx of Syrian nationals – who represent the largest of asylum seekers – following the fall of Bashar al-Assad.
69: At least 69 people have died in a fire at a shopping mall in the city of al-Kut in eastern Iraq. The origin of the fire is not yet known, but initial analysis of the site suggests that it started on the floor where cosmetics and perfumes are sold.
8: In a major scientific breakthrough, 8 UK babies were made using DNA from three people rather than two. The approach, which uses the egg and sperm from a mom and a dad along with a second egg from a donor woman, is meant to prevent a deadly mitochondrial disease. Most DNA still comes from the two parents, with just 0.1% from the second egg donor.
69: A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 69% of Americans believe the Trump administration is hiding information about Jeffrey Epstein’s clients. Just 6% disagreed, while about 25% were unsure. President Donald Trump had pledged to release more information, but now is trying to shift the conversation elsewhere.
Jair Bolsonaro, Donald Trump, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The president of the United States is overtly meddling in Brazil’s domestic politics. It's hard for Americans to even imagine that another country would dare threaten to tank the Dow unless the Supreme Court overturned a ruling or Congress repealed a law. Democrats and Republicans alike would howl if China tried to do that. Yet that's exactly what President Trump is doing to Brazil: flexing economic muscle to dictate the internal policies of a sovereign nation (and a democratic one, to boot). So much for his promise not to lecture other countries on how to govern their affairs (he should’ve clarified: as long as their leaders earn, or buy, his personal favor).
It’s a corrupt (ab)use of executive power. The Trump administration has articulated a number of shifting and often contradictory aims to justify its tariffs: shrinking bilateral trade deficits, raising revenue, reshoring supply chains, creating manufacturing jobs, squeezing China, wringing better deals. It’s certainly the case that some of these goals make less sense than others, tariffs aren’t always the right tool for the job, policy execution has been sloppy (remember the formula?), and Trump’s negotiation skills haven’t been up to snuff. But at least most of the tariffs have been guided by Trump’s sense of the national interest. They accordingly amount to legitimate statecraft. Not so with the Brazil tariff, which the president’s letter justifies purely on political grounds. There’s no national‑interest fig leaf – just an open bid to help a political opposition leader he likes.
It's also plainly illegal. Since “Liberation Day,” the White House has invoked a bunch of statutory authorities to unilaterally levy tariffs without Congressional legislation, most notably the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Usage of this law rests on the notion that the tariffs are a remedy for a “national economic emergency.” The US Supreme Court has yet to rule on the legality of IEEPA tariffs; it will probably do so in the fall, when I expect it to curb the president’s authority. But whatever the justices decide, we already know that the president doesn't have the legal authority to impose a tariff solely because he disagrees with the target’s domestic politics.
President Lula has no ability to give in to Trump’s demands. Even if he wanted to appease Trump, both Bolsonaro’s trial for plotting to assassinate Lula and overturn the 2022 election – a “witch hunt,” per Trump – and the new social media rules – seen as “censorship” in Washington – are beyond Lula’s constitutional jurisdiction. For Brasília they are non-negotiable matters of sovereignty. Nor does Lula have much trade leverage. Many US imports already face low duties; while Brazil could plausibly lower tariffs on some US goods like ethanol, deeper cuts require agreement by all four Mercosur members and their legislatures.
Even if he had the means to offer Trump the concessions he demands, Lula has no incentive to back down. On the contrary, the Brazilian president sees an electoral opportunity to lean into the tariff fight with the US at Bolsonaro's expense. Lula entered the 2026 campaign cycle as an unpopular incumbent presiding over a soft economy. Much like Trump’s “51st state” threats against Canada rallied Canadians around the flag and helped the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney stage a spectacular comeback, Trump’s threat to Brazil’s sovereignty and economy in direct support of Bolsonaro just handed Lula a flag-wrapped gift. It’s good politics for him to escalate the clash against Trump, cast himself as defender of Brazilian sovereignty, and blame his domestic nemesis for both the extremely unpopular foreign interference and any economic pain.
Don’t feel too bad for Bolsonaro. The former president has been trying to persuade Trump to more actively support him for months. Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo – a lawmaker who’s close with Trump’s sons and a top contender to succeed his father as the right-wing challenger to Lula – has been in Washington lobbying the White House for targeted financial sanctions against Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the lead judge in Bolsonaro’s trial (and, incidentally, a key champion of the social media regulation). Eduardo’s success in getting Trump to take up his cause is matched only by his failure to grasp the extent of Trump’s tariff obsession. Now he faces legal jeopardy at home for inviting foreign aggression, and his father’s grievance politics may finally come back to bite him. Whatever happens in 2026, the Bolsonaros have no one to blame but themselves.
The fight is set to get worse. Lula stepped up the escalatory rhetoric, refusing to accept Trump’s letter and threatening mirror tariffs. Diplomats will hunt for an off-ramp and try to buy time, but neither side is likely to blink before Aug. 1. The aggregate economic damage of 50% tariffs is manageable – Brazilian exports to the US account for less than 12% of Brazil’s total exports and about 2% of the country’s GDP, and some products (like oil) and sectors where Brazilian exporters have leverage are likely to be exempted. Trump’s letter also left the door open for individual companies to get waivers if they promise US investments. Still, the Brazilian industrial sector is highly dependent on the US export market (especially in products like steel, aerospace, cell phones, tools, and coffee), so the tariff won’t be entirely painless.
The cleanest de-escalation route runs through Bolsonaro himself: he’d need to directly ask Trump to ease or drop the tariffs, probably once the industrial lobby gets too loud and Lula’s poll numbers rise beyond comfort. That scenario is likelier than Lula caving or Trump unilaterally backing down. The White House has already ordered a Section 301 probe into various Brazilian policies that will give Trump a legally sturdier mechanism to impose sky-high duties on Brazil should courts clip his IEEPA wings.
Trump’s gambit will boomerang. The tariff will prop up his ally’s arch-enemy Lula, hurt US consumers (say goodbye to cheap cafezinho and OJ), and nudge Brazil closer to China and the EU – and away from Washington. As Trump keeps doing his darndest to deglobalize America, expect this pattern to keep repeating itself.