Israel/Palestine one of the few Middle East areas getting less stable
July 04, 2023
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Ian Bremmer takes a look at the week's top stories in geopolitics.
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Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Israel launched its biggest military operation in the West Bank since 2002. How will it impact Israeli-Palestinian stability?
Well, I mean, pretty badly. The problem is that Israel has no interest in reopening talks with the Palestinians on a potential two-state solution. The country has moved towards the Right on that issue, and the Palestinians don't have effective governance, for the Palestinian authority in the West Bank is increasingly weakened and in Gaza, it's really a matter of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. So, there's no movement towards talking. Instead, it's the Israelis taking more territory, building more settlements, and the Palestinians getting angrier and more desperate. And no surprise that you're going to see more military confrontation on the back of that. Having said that, it's one of the few areas where things aren't getting more stable in the Middle East, almost everywhere else, the Gulf, Iran's relations with the GCC, Qatar and the GCC, Assad getting normalized, Yemen with a ceasefire, most of the Middle East actually looks more stable.
Is Bolsonaro's political career over?
Well, they say he can't run, the judiciary has said, now he can't, he's out of politics till 2030. I mean, you know, if you look at the United States, he'd still have a couple of decades going, right? You look at Biden and Trump, you just never retire if you're an American political leader. You get to govern forever or at least keep running. But Bolsonaro will still be by far the most popular leader on the Right and therefore has kingmaker status. I think, you know, who he decides he'd like to see as running for the presidency in the next electoral cycle will have a significant leg up. And by the way, he increasingly talks about his wife in that role. So, I mean, keep it in the family. Why not?
Okay, with student loan forgiveness struck down, does it hurt Biden's reelection efforts?
Yeah, I think it does, on balance. I mean, the fact that the executive increasingly is showing that it is on the back foot vis-à-vis not just a legislature that's very polarized, though they have had some wins there, but also a 6-3 Conservative Supreme Court, and that that has struck down a number of issues that is hurting them, I think that does matter. I think a promise to forgive student loans and not being able to get that done quickly or as big is a promise that Biden, you know, he can say, I'm still working for you, but if he can't get it done, people aren't benefiting. On affirmative action, it's more in between. I mean, then it depends on how the question is phrased, whether or not it's actually popular, unpopular. On balance, I would say striking it down as more with the population as opposed to the abortion issue, where clearly the population is on the side of Roe and against today's Supreme Court. So still very, very polarized, the US. Not surprised, that's sort of the theme of the day. I hope everyone is well and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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