Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko has been in power for more than 30 years. A close ally of Vladimir Putin, he is often referred to as “Europe’s last dictator.”
Last weekend, he won yet another election that was widely regarded as rigged.
The last time he did that, in 2020, it provoked mass protests led by opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who took up the mantle after her husband Syarhei, a popular dissident, was jailed ahead of the vote. The regime brutally suppressed those protests, jailing hundreds. Tsikhanousakaya fled into exile in neighboring Lithuania.
She is still there, and her husband remains in a Belarusian prison. I spoke to her about why Lukashenko’s latest electoral fraud has failed to produce the same kind of uprising, and what she expects and hopes will happen next.
Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Alex Kliment: Sviatlana, the last time Lukashenko won an election that was widely regarded as a fraud, there were mass protests, the largest in Belarusian history. This time, so far, the streets of Minsk are silent. Why?
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya: In 2020, after fraudulent elections, people went to the streets. We wanted to protect our votes, our voice, and this regime, they suppressed it. They unleashed terror and for four years in a row, the regime has kept Belarusian people in total fear.
I think that people in democratic countries don’t even have an understanding of what it means to live in such a society, in such a tyranny. It’s like in Stalin’s time when at any moment the KGB just can break into your house and detain you in front of your children. There is no rule of law. You don’t know what colors you can wear. Is the combination of white and red safe? [The colors of the opposition flag]. Or if you donate 20 euros to the Ukrainian army, it costs you five years in prison. Or if you buy Christmas presents for children of political prisoners, and the regime says that you are supporting extremism, they put you in prison for 10, 15 years.
So while in 2020 we believed that millions of people in the streets will show this regime “we are against you, we want you to leave!” Now, when people are silenced, when people are underground, I don’t want people to be imprisoned in vain. We need people. We need people’s energy for a real moment of opportunity. And this circus and farce, it’s not the moment we are preparing for.
Kliment: What do you think will bring about that real moment of opportunity?
Tsikhanouskaya: It could be many scenarios. First, the fate of Belarus and Ukraine are intertwined because both our countries are fighting against the imperialistic ambitions of Russia. Lukashenko became a vassal to Putin, a puppet to Putin’s regime, providing all the necessary infrastructure, territory, and facilities for Russia[’s invasion of Ukraine]. The victory of Ukraine in this war will weaken Putin’s regime and hence weaken Lukashenko’s regime.
It could also be an internal coup d’etat in the regime. For years, the Belarusian people and Belarusian nomenklatura have seen that Lukashenko is a dead end for our country, for our independence, and for our sovereignty. Lukashenko is selling our country, piece by piece, to Russia. He doesn’t care about Belarusian national identity. He doesn’t care about the Belarusian nation. He cares only about his power. And Putin is the person who provides this power to Lukashenko. So elites understand that we can lose our country, that Lukashenko can make Belarus an appendix of Russia, and they don’t want that.
It could be economic issues. It can be a “hunger uprising.” Why not? Lukashenko is doing everything possible to isolate our country, committing crime after crime, making the democratic world impose sanctions.
It could be any black swan, like the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria was. And our task is to be prepared for this moment. We have to be strong enough. We have to be united. We have to keep our democratic partners in alliance with us and use this moment of opportunity for Belarus and bring changes.
Kliment: Right now, leaders and societies around the world are bracing for the impact of Donald Trump’s foreign policy. How might that affect Belarus generally, and affect your movement in particular?
Tsikhanouskaya: I want to remind free Americans that the United States of America was always a beacon of freedom and hope for countries who are fighting for democracy. We need examples. We need to see how a strong democracy is helping those who are sacrificing their freedom, sacrificing their lives for the values that your countries are based on.
We always saw the USA as our ally against dictatorship, against tyranny, against brutality and I want to believe that the USA will continue to help and assist those nations who are on the front line of this fight.
So for us, it’s important to show the new US government the strategic importance of Belarus in our region. How without free and democratic and independent Belarus, there will be no peace and security in the whole region.
Lukashenko is now a key player in the global network of autocrats helping each other circumvent sanctions and sustain dictatorships. Belarus has become a hub for smuggling sanctioned goods, laundering money, and facilitating weapons production.
So stand with us, help us to return our country to its people and to the European family of nations. It’s in the interest of global peace and security, and this is what the USA always was standing for.
Kliment: And under what circumstances do you hope to return to Belarus? What is the Belarus that you dream of going back to?
Tsikhanouskaya: My dream of Belarus is that my country is, first of all, a free country where people don’t live in constant fear. I want a Belarus that is not dependent on Russia. I want a Belarus that is a reliable neighbor for Western countries and not the source of constant threats and provocation as we are now. And I truly believe that with good governance, with good management, our country really can be among the most advanced countries in Europe. We have wonderful, hard-working, very disciplined, very patient, and peaceful people.
And this isn’t about hope, it’s about hard work, it’s about constant challenges, but it’s also about confidence. Because I see how, despite all the brutality of the regime, despite all the difficulties, the Belarusian people have not given up. We are an inspiration of how to be strong, how to be brave, and how to fight against dictators.
Kliment: Well, I will look forward to speaking with you on that day. Vyaliki dziakui [thank you very much] Sviatlana.
Tsikhanouskaya: Fantastic, thank you.
