The global order is fraying...and it's not entirely Trump's doing. In this week's episode Ian charts the unraveling of key global alliances and sits down with Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations. And on Puppet Regime, we've got some never-before-seen footage from last week's summit!
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Empathy and listening are key to establishing harmonious relationships, as demonstrated by Callista Azogu, GM of Human Resources & Organization for Nigerian Agip Oil Company (NAOC), an Eni subsidiary in Abuja. "To build trust is very difficult. To destroy it is very easy," says Callista, whose busy days involve everything from personnel issues to union relationships. She sees great potential for her native Nigeria not only because of the country's natural resources, but because of its vibrant and creative people.
Learn more about Callista in this episode of Faces of Eni.
Saturday will mark the beginning of an historic turning point for European politics as 1,001 voting members of Germany's Christian Democratic Union, the party of Chancellor Angela Merkel, hold an online conference to elect a new leader.
Here are the basic facts:
<ul class="ee-ul"><li>The candidates are <strong>Friedrich Merz</strong>, a business-friendly candidate of the center right, <strong>Armin Laschet</strong>, governor of Germany's largest state, and <strong>Norbert Röttgen</strong>, the current chairman of parliament's foreign affairs committee. </li><li>Any of these three could win. Merz has pledged to lead the CDU "out from the shadow of Angela Merkel" by leading the party toward the center right. The other two contenders have offered themselves as centrists and consensus <a href="https://think.ing.com/articles/germany-guick-guide-to-this-weeks-cdu-leadership-vote/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">builders</a>.</li><li>The winner will enter negotiations with the CDU's sister party, the Bavaria-only Christian Social Union and its popular <a href="https://www.web24.news/u/2020/06/spiegel-poll-on-black-green-coalition-and-candidate-for-chancellor.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">leader</a>, Markus Söder, to choose a CDU-CSU unity candidate for September's national election. That choice will be made in late March or early April. </li><li>Watch the popularity ratings of this weekend's winner over the next few weeks. Those numbers will likely determine whether the new CDU leader or the CSU's Söder will be chosen as the union's candidate for chancellery. </li><li>That CDU-CSU unity candidate is highly likely to replace Merkel as Germany's chancellor in September, possibly in coalition with the Green party.</li></ul><p><strong>Europe will be watching all this closely,</strong> because Merkel's September exit will mark a crucial turning point for the European Union. Over the past 15 years, <a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/is-angela-merkel-staging-a-comeback" target="_self">Merkel's ability</a> to use Germany's unrivalled political and economic muscle and her own powers of persuasion have helped Europe navigate: </p><ul class="ee-ul"><li>The <a href="https://www.npr.org/2011/12/08/143292255/can-angela-merkel-save-europe" target="_blank">sovereign debt crisis </a>that followed the 2008-2009 global financial market meltdown</li><li>The migrant crisis that followed Syria's civil war</li><li>Increasingly troubled relations dividing Europe's North from South, and East from West</li><li>Ever more complex relationships with the United States and China</li><li>The process of moving beyond Brexit to build a new relationship with the UK</li><li>The <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/07/europe/angela-merkel-coronavirus-legacy-grm-intl/index.html" target="_blank">response </a>to the global pandemic</li></ul><p>She certainly hasn't done all that alone. But as leader of the EUs most influential member, and by virtue of her experience and of international respect for her judgment and ability, she has proven indispensable for the EU's ability to absorb an extraordinary series of shocks. </p><p><strong>Europe faces new challenges in 2021.</strong> The enormous <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-17/eu-unveils-conditions-for-gigantic-recovery-fund-disbursements" target="_blank">economic recovery fund</a> for EU members must be successfully rolled out. In a COVID world, there must be wisely crafted new rules for how much EU member states will tax and spend. </p><p>There's work to do with US President-elect Joe Biden to bolster transatlantic relations. The EU parliament will <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2020/12/30/eu-and-china-set-to-sign-historic-investment-deal-but-could-human-rights-concerns-scupper-" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">consider </a>an historic and controversial investment deal with China. There are potential crises with Turkey to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/11/europes-stance-on-turkey-toughens-with-sanctions-weapons-talk" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">manage</a> and complex relations with Russia to consider. </p><p>French President Emmanuel Macron will now move to center stage, but there are factors that will limit his ability to fill the vacuum left behind by Merkel. </p><p>First, given Germany's economic and political clout, Macron will need a capable and willing German partner, and for most of this year, Merkel will remain in place with reduced influence. It will take time for Germany's new leader to establish himself. </p><p>Second, just as Merkel departs in September, Macron must look to his own campaign for re-election next year. France has <a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/the-road-ahead-for-macron-is-only-getting-rougher" target="_self">plenty </a>of health, economic, and security challenges to keep him busy. </p><strong>Bottom line:</strong> Saturday will open a new chapter in Europe's history — the post-Merkel EU. We'll learn more about what that means for Germany soon enough. Its meaning for Europe — and its ability to weather the next unexpected storm — will take much longer.
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Joe Biden wants to move into the White House, but the coast isn't clear. He may need some bleach.
Watch more PUPPET REGIME here.
Advice from former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson to the incoming Cabinet head
January 16, 2021
If former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson could give incoming Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas advice, what would it be? "Well, first I would say, 'Ali, I'm glad it's you, not me.'" His conversation with Ian Bremmer was part of the latest episode of GZERO World.
Listen: For the first time in twenty years extreme poverty around the world is growing. How does the developing world recover from a pandemic that has brought even the richest nations to their knees? David Malpass, the President of the World Bank, is tasked with answering that question. He joins Ian Bremmer on the podcast to talk about how his organization is trying to keep the developing world from slipping further into poverty in the wake of a once-in-a-century pandemic.
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Advice from former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson to the incoming Cabinet head
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January 16, 2021