The global order is fraying...and it's not entirely Trump's doing. In this week's episode Ian charts the unraveling of key global alliances and sits down with Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations. And on Puppet Regime, we've got some never-before-seen footage from last week's summit!
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Meet Zoe Marshall, grandmother, fishmonger, and thriving business owner.
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When Zoe Marshall decided to switch careers in her forties and become a fishmonger, she was scared. After leaving her job of 23 years, Zoe was forced to pivot in order to keep her family's home. Despite challenges, she forged ahead, opening Sea-Licious. Accepting Visa payments in her fishmonger shop, this access to commerce helps Zoe provide convenience to her customers and confidence in their transactions. Though she's one of the only women in the fish market each morning, her business and its place in the local community are flourishing with Visa's help.
Listen: Can Big Government still rein in Big Tech or has it already lost control? Never before have just a few companies exerted such an outsized influence on humanity. Today's digital space, where we live so much of our daily lives, has increasingly become an area that national governments are unable to control. It may be time to start thinking of these corporations as nation-states in their own rights. Ian Bremmer speaks with Nicholas Thompson, CEO of the Atlantic and former WIRED editor-in-chief, about how to police the digital world.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
In the lead-up to this year's COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, much of the attention has been focused on last summer's wildfires across the US and Europe, and more recently skyrocketing European energy prices. But what about Asia, the world's biggest and most populated region, which also has the highest share of global carbon dioxide emissions that cause global warming? Asia has unique climate risks but also many opportunities for solutions, and whatever happens at COP26, Asian countries led by China and India are primed to lead the world in the struggle to make the planet greener before it's too late. In a live discussion moderated by Shari Friedman, Eurasia Group's Managing Director of Climate and Sustainability, global experts discussed these and other topics during the first of a two-part Sustainability Leaders Summit sponsored by Suntory.
Eurasia Group and GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer explained why it's time for Asia to turn the narrative on climate policy by leading without following bad examples from the West, how the broader region — especially heavyweights China and India — can actually find common ground on climate despite otherwise disagreeing on everything else these days, and why a lackluster COP26 won't mean failure despite the lack of global leadership on climate.
Suntory CEO Tak Niinami shared his views on why collective action on climate is so complicated in such a diverse region as Asia, the need to consider hydrogen and nuclear power on top of traditional renewables like solar and wind, and why 2050 is too far for companies to make net zero pledges because there's no sense of urgency.
Ko Barrett, vice president of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, put out some thoughts on why different countries should have different approaches to solve the common problem of climate, why she's hopeful about a good outcome at COP26, and the particular climate risks that Asia faces.
Kevin Rudd, former Australian PM and current CEO of the Asia Society, gave his take on regional leaders and laggards on climate, the global political leadership vacuum on the issue, and the need for all Asian countries — in particular China and India — to work in sync on climate to cut emissions drastically.
Sintesa Group CEO Shinta Kamdani talked about Indonesia's tricky balancing act between climate action and fighting poverty, and why women need to more involved in global climate solutions.
Finding Sustainable Solutions For SIngle-Use Plastics | Sustainability Leaders Summit | GZERO Media youtu.be
On day two, we turned to a practical application of climate solutions to a very dicey topic: sustainable plastics, which to some sounds like "clean coal." What can we do to dramatically cut down on single-use plastics, and figure out how to recycle all others? Who's most responsible for all of this, and what's the outlook for the future? Our expert guests weighed in.
Tak Niinami clarified why applying currently available technology is as important as developing new tech to better dispose of and recycle plastics.
Ian Bremmer predicted how over time, corporations and tech firms will get sucked into the "gravitational pull" of making plastics more sustainable because it's in their own self-interest — no one wants to get left behind.
Eurasia Group climate & sustainability expert Colleen King described why plastics are such a big problem for Asia's climate, and provided examples of successful recycling initiatives in Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea.
Climate activist Hannah Testa underscored how plastics pollution is finally part of the zeitgeist, with more businesses stepping up to do the right thing because it's linked to climate change, and highlighted the ever-pressing need to refuse single-use plastics and raise awareness about the harm they do to the oceans, the world's biggest carbon sink.
Aloke Lohia, CEO of Indorama Ventures, pointed out why most plastics should be seen as raw material instead of waste because it can be recycled, and the need to double down on that because plastics will get more expensive when we transition away from fossil fuels.
Circulate Capital CEO Rob Kaplan shed light on how the "circular" economy driven by recycling could flip global supply chains on their head, and why sustainable plastics are a huge opportunity for investors in countries that don't even do the basics like India.
Climate Bonds Initiative CEO Sean Kidney illustrated why single-use plastics are partly responsible for the the shocking loss of biodiversity in the past few decades, on the urgency of solving the problem before it's too late, and why governments, manufacturers, and consumers all need to "sing from the same song sheet" to focus on greener plastic use.
Tadashi Maeda, governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, stressed the need to de-risk capital investment in the sector and to spur more public-private partnerships in sustainable plastics.
Anchoring the Summit is a new research report prepared by Eurasia Group, "Unlocking Sustainable Plastics in Asia," which advocates for a much more dynamic role for both the public and private sector in Asia to counter the proliferation of single-use plastic containers, which have had an outsized impact on the environment.
This summit is sponsored by Suntory and co-hosted by GZERO Media and Eurasia Group.
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The Graphic Truth: Who's putting a price on carbon?
October 22, 2021
We're just days away from COP26, the landmark global climate conference that's been dubbed the last chance to get the climate crisis in check. In the lead-up to the event in Glasgow, dozens of countries have released new ambitions to reduce their future carbon footprints. For years, climate activists and experts have called on governments to introduce carbon pricing schemes – either through taxes or emissions-trading schemes. So who's heeded the warning? We take a look at the top ten carbon emitters' share of global emissions and details about their respective national carbon pricing schemes.
Marietje Schaake, International Policy Director at Stanford's Cyber Policy Center, Eurasia Group senior advisor and former MEP, discusses trends in big tech, privacy protection and cyberspace:
Do cryptocurrencies make it harder to enforce foreign policy sanctions?
Well, that is exactly what the Biden administration worries about. As part of growing concerns of whether unregulated currencies undermine a whole host of policies, sanctions and foreign or trade policy should be a priority area. And just like others who wish to evade tracing of their wealth or transactions, the very states or their sanctioned entities should be assumed to resort to all options to evade restrictions while continuing to do business. So having cryptocurrencies undermining the ability to enforce strategic goals logically raises eyebrows in Washington.
Didn't the Biden administration recently sanction a cryptocurrency exchange itself?
Yes, it did. But the sanctions against SUEX were intended to prevent the company or platform from being the clearing house for criminal money. My sense is that there will be plenty more legal updates, regulations and ad hoc steps to ensure that cryptocurrencies do not undermine the ability to make policy, whether it's monetary or foreign policy.
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Back in August, when the Taliban took over, we asked whether anyone in the international community would recognize them. Now it looks like things are heading that way.
This week, the Kremlin hosted a summit with the Taliban that was attended by China, India and Pakistan, as well as all five Central Asian Republics.
The domestically-focused US, however, wasn't there. The US continues to maintain that the Taliban can't be trusted. But does it matter? In 2021 does a Taliban-led government even need American recognition to function and thrive?
Background: who's willing to recognize the Taliban?
Regional powers like Russia and China have suggested they'll recognize the Taliban, provided that the group safeguards their respective interests.
A pragmatic and increasingly ambitious China wants two things: access to Afghanistan's mineral wealth, and an opportunity to build bridges and roads across the country as part of its vision to crisscross Asia with Chinese infrastructure. Russia wants to ensure the Taliban don't give safe haven to militants targeting Russia and the Muslim-majority former Soviet republics in Central Asia.
The isolated Taliban will surely want Beijing's infrastructure investment – and the job creation that goes with it. And while it's unclear how much economic influence Russia has on the ground, Moscow has emerged as the key power-broker in recent months, suggesting it does have diplomatic clout as it tries to maintain good relations with the new government in Kabul.
Moreover, Pakistan has long enjoyed close ties with the Taliban, while Turkey has been cozying up to the Taliban as part of its effort to expand its influence in Muslim-majority countries, and stop an influx of Afghan refugees arriving via Iran. India – worried that a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan would help its arch-nemesis Pakistan launch attacks against it – wants to maintain solid relations with Kabul as well.
But… does the Taliban-led government even need the US' endorsement to function?
To a certain degree, yes. The US dominates the global financial system, with some two-thirds of international trade and lending done in US dollars. It also has sufficient control over the SWIFT system, which allows financial institutions and banks to safely transfer money around the globe. Indeed, blocking countries from this network can be extremely painful (just ask the Iranians).
The US has also used its clout at international organizations like the IMF and the World Bank to compel these institutions to suspend projects and payments to Afghanistan in recent months. Additionally, there is still some uncertainty about how US sanctions might apply to a Taliban-run Afghanistan. Anyone caught doing business with Taliban-administered banks might face the risk of sanctions, as is the case with Iran. This is hardly a solid PR ploy to attract outside investment.
What's more, the bulk of Afghanistan's foreign reserves – more than $9 billion – are tied up in US banks, and Washington has ensured that the Taliban only have access to a meager 0.1-0.2 percent of this stash. Even before the takeover, the country's economy was slated to shrink because of the pandemic. Now, a depreciating currency as a result of a cash crunch and falling imports is making matters worse: the IMF recently warned that the state's GDP could shrink by 30 percent this year.
Still, the Taliban can get support and aid from other places. Indeed, the Islamist group could turn to regional development banks for disbursements like the Beijing-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which the US is not a member of, as well as the Asian Development Bank that already has extensive operations in Afghanistan.
And if all else fails, there's always opium. The Taliban have made a mint from opium production in recent years, with the group accounting for around 85 percent of the global supply. Illicit mining activities have also proven to be a cash-cow, as has the side hustle of selling US-made weapons and vehicles left behind amid the chaotic American withdrawal.
Looking ahead. For all the banter about America being in decline, Uncle Sam still pulls (most of) the levers of power in the global financial system. The Taliban can find alternative sources of support and income – but it certainly won't be easy.
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For Kevin Rudd, former Australian PM and now CEO of the Asia Society, the science on climate change is pretty much done, so the only unresolved issues are tech and — more importantly — lack of political leadership. He can't think of a single national political leader who can fill the role, and says the only way to get political action on climate is to mobilize public opinion.
Rudd joined for the first of a two-part Sustainability Leaders Summit livestream conversation sponsored by Suntory. Watch here and register here to watch part two Friday 10/22 at 8 am ET.
Taking place on October 21 and 22, the Sustainability Leaders Summit will go beyond preexisting narratives and debate priorities for governments and industries ahead of COP26. Placing the spotlight on Asia's role in the global sustainability agenda, the event will address whether Asian countries and companies can achieve shared sustainability goals, and what is needed to help get them there. The summit will be co-hosted by Tak Niinami, CEO of Suntory Holdings, and Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. We will address three key questions: How can Asian countries, with the help of the private sector, achieve shared Sustainability Goals? Why does this matter? And what are the policy changes needed to bring it about?
Attendance is free and open to the public. Register to attend.
October 21, 2021: Protecting the planet: Asia's risk and responsibility
Thursday | 8 am ET / 8pm SGT
October 22, 2021: Plastics: Unlocking sustainable solutions
Friday | 8 am ET / 8pm SGT
Speakers include:
- Ian Bremmer, President and Founder, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media
- Tak Niinami, CEO, Suntory Holdings
- Inger Andersen, Under-Secretary-General, United Nations and Executive Director, United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)
- Ko Barrett, Vice Chair, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Deputy Assistant Administrator for Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Shari Friedman, Managing Director of Climate and Sustainability, Eurasia Group
- Shinta Kamdani, CEO, Sintesa Group
- Rob Kaplan, CEO, Circulate Capital
- Sean Kidney, CEO, Climate Bonds Initiative
- Aloke Lohia, CEO, Indorama Ventures
- Tadashi Maeda, Governor, Japan Bank for International Cooperation
- Kevin Rudd, former prime minister, Australia
- Hannah Testa, Activist
Anchoring the Summit is a new research report prepared by Eurasia Group, "Unlocking Sustainable Plastics in Asia," which advocates for a much more dynamic role for both the public and private sector in Asia to counter the proliferation of single-use plastic containers, which have had an outsized impact on the environment.
Sustainability Leaders Summit
October 21 & October 22, 8 am ET / 8 pm SGT
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