Podcast: Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis on Greece’s unlikely COVID success story

TRANSCRIPT: Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis on Greece’s unlikely COVID success story

Kyriakos Mitsotakis:

I think we convinced people that this was for their own good, and we had a wave of public support for the measures that we were actually taking. At the time, people were not aware of the economic pain that this would actually entail, but we did succeed in crushing the epidemic during its early stages.

Ian Bremmer:

Hello, and welcome to the GZERO World Podcast, where you'll find extended versions of interviews from my show on public television. I'm Ian Bremmer, and today I sit down with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Try saying that a few times. We'll talk pandemic, Turkish tensions, and why Americans still can't eat souvlaki in Santorini. Let's get to it.

Announcer:

This GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by Walmart. Around the world, Walmart aspires to use its strengths to transform the systems on which we all rely, setting ambitious sustainability goals, supporting the communities we serve, and creating development and advancement opportunities for our 2.2 million associates. Learn more at corporate.walmart.com/global responsibility.

Ian Bremmer:

Prime Minister of Greece Kyriakos Mitsotakis, wonderful to be back with you, sir.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis:

Thank you. A pleasure talking to you, as always.

Ian Bremmer:

Before the pandemic hit, if you talked about Greece economically, you'd usually say this was the problem child. This was the country that for 10 years has gone through the absolute worst, right, a serious depression that was even greater than the US had a century ago, and yet today, Greece is seen as one of the most effective countries in the world in responding to this pandemic. How do you manage that, given just how much trouble you've been through?

Kyriakos Mitsotakis:

Well, maybe one of the reasons, Ian, we were forced to take decisions very early had to do with the fact that I was totally aware that we had some shortcomings in our healthcare system as a result of 10 years of underinvestment. I was very much aware that we could not afford to lose a day in containing this epidemic. Back in March, we took the decisions very, very early, probably a couple of weeks earlier than most European countries, and that did make a difference. We trusted the experts.

We focused a lot on communication. I think we convinced people that this was for their own good, and we had a wave of public support for the measures that we were actually taking. Of course, as you know, it is, from an operational point of view, relatively easy to shut down the economy. At the time, people were not aware of the economic pain that this would actually entail, but we did succeed in crushing the epidemic during its early stages, and we made it into summer.

We started opening up tourism. We did it in a very organized manner, I'd say a rather sophisticated manner, by using smart algorithms in terms of predicting who should be tested and who should not be tested. We had a few imported cases and we saw a second wave as of late August, which we've tried to contain, obviously not by going to universal lockdown measures ... this is not an option we currently have on the table ... but by being smarter in terms of imposing some local restrictions. Our cases so far are around 300 per day. If they stay there, I feel very, very comfortable that we will have no pressure whatsoever on our healthcare system.

Economic life in Greece has resumed to almost what I would call normal. Of course, we have some curfews on bars, restaurants. Masks are obligatory in public spaces, indoors, but also in public transport. People also, during the second wave, have complied. You haven't seen much of the anti-masking demonstrations that you saw in many other countries, many European countries. 85% of Greeks think that wearing a mask is the right thing, to protect yourself but also the people you love. I think we've also managed to muster the collective support that we need to get through the second wave as well. Of course, we're all concerned about what will happen once we start moving indoors, but that's a question that we will probably need to address in November or December.

Ian Bremmer:

One of the things that's so important about Greece's response is not just leading with science, but leading with science early. In February, when very few people were paying attention outside China to what was going on, your government was. To what extent were you trying to get other countries in the European Union to pay attention to Greece's response? We saw what happened in Italy. We saw what happened in Spain, the United Kingdom.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis:

Well, Italy was the first, and of course they suffered tremendously. We looked at Italy and we said we don't want this to happen in Greece. I think there's a difference between Greece and Spain. We don't have a federal system. We have a government with an absolute majority, so we can take a decision today and implement it tomorrow. That makes a huge difference when every day counts and certainly when every week counts. We were able to move very, very quickly in terms of implementing our decision.

As far as access to ventilators and ICU beds, I mean, what happened in March and April, everyone was on their own and there was no real collective corporation. This has changed now because in the European Union, as far as vaccines are concerned, we're purchasing vaccines at the European level and they will be allocated to member states based on population, which is the right approach. I've been advocating for vaccines as a public good since March, but at the time it was difficult. We had a very low number of ICU beds. We've been able to double it since. Of course, we are addressing not just COVID, but perennial shortcomings of our healthcare system, because we had problems with ICU beds before COVID hit.

Hopefully now with the flu season, we are starting our vaccination officially on October 15th. We have 4.2 million flu vaccines. People are actually quite eager to get vaccinated for flu, which is important because again, we fight the anti-vaccination movement by having lots of people take their flu shot. That hopefully will help us, because I think that the vaccine plus masks will help us to have a relatively mild flu season. Because as you know, the last thing we want is for COVID and flu to coexist during the same period. We're also planning for the winter, and of course we have already made our plans if and when ... when, I should say, because I'm sure there will be a vaccine ... when the vaccine or the vaccines will be available, to make sure that we prioritize people who should be receiving the vaccines first.

Again, we're a medium-size country, 10 million. We don't have the operational constraints of let's say the US, where you have 325 million people and you need to vaccinate hundreds of millions of people. We can run this exercise relatively quickly, and we've proven that what counts during these difficult times is speed and effectiveness. This was, for us, a very non-ideological topic. We made it about public health. Actually, after many years of Greece being accused as the weak link of Europe, it actually felt pretty good for the Greeks to be receiving good press, because we've got a lot of good press internationally about getting this thing right. I think it also helps the brand of the country, not just now but also medium, long-term, in terms of our economic recovery potential. I do think that the countries that have dealt more effectively with the pandemic will also rebound faster than others.

Ian Bremmer:

As you know, this is a long fight, and Greece is warmer than many countries in Europe but it's going to get colder. People are going to want to go inside. What do you have in place to start thinking about more restrictions as you might need them? How are you going to make that decision? How quickly do you think you might need to move?

Kyriakos Mitsotakis:

Look, I think we're very good at managing our data, and we have very good indicators in terms of looking at the trend of the epidemic. Of course, the ultimate yardstick is you don't want your healthcare system to be overwhelmed. That's why we're still adding COVID beds, permanent ICU beds. There's going to be many more coming online over the next couple of months because you can always repurpose beds, but you shouldn't be doing it at the expense of your healthcare system.

I think the real challenge is to make sure people work from home as much as we can, private sector but also public sector. This is all quite new. Keep schools open for as long as you can. We actually made masks mandatory even in kindergarten. We started with mandatory masks at the age of four. There was a lot of reaction, but I can tell you kids are pretty obedient, and even if they don't fully succeed, we have enough kids wearing masks. We've had very few problems at our schools so far, so we want to keep schools open for as long as we can.

Of course, the challenge is going to be sectors such as entertainment, theaters, movies, cinemas, whether they can operate at a significantly reduced capacity, and what sort of additional economic incentives you need to give them in order for them to at least make it through what is going to be a difficult winter, and of course, food and beverage. One thing we're doing is we are subsidizing. This may sound trivial to you, but in Greece it is quite important. We're subsidizing external heaters for restaurants so that people can sit outside for longer, and you can actually sit outside. As long as it's not raining in Greece, we can sit outside even in December if it's not too cold. We'll try to keep people outside as much as we can.

Of course, there is a big economic support package. We'll be spending, in total by the end of the year, 24 billion euros to support our economy. I think we've done everything that was appropriate, from short-term employment support, to one-off payments to people who were on furlough, to immediate liquidity supply for companies through essentially a zero-interest loan provided by the government based on their revenue shortfall, because we wanted to bypass the banking sector. Maybe that's one of the reasons why, if you look at our performance in the first six months of 2020, the recession is actually lower than the Eurozone average. Many people thought Greece would be destroyed because of our dependence on tourists. It didn't happen.

Ian Bremmer:

As you said, for many Europeans, Greece has been one of the highlights in the news over the past months. That, together with the fact that the Europeans have come together with an extraordinary budget and relief for the southern countries, is that changing the view in Greece of the Germans, of the Northern Europeans, of Brussels? Do you feel that the European franchise is actually becoming more robust, or at least more integrated, on the back of coronavirus?

Kyriakos Mitsotakis:

I think you're right. It's a good question, Ian. I think yes, and I think what we achieved as Europe at the last council was extremely important. I think it also helps that, at least as far as Greece is concerned, the credibility has been restored. There was no concern about Greece not spending the money wisely. Of course there are constraints that apply to all European countries, but I think it is important that Greece at least has restored its political credibility and that, of course, we are receiving a significant amount of money per capita, per GDP. We're big beneficiaries from this package. We intend to spend it wisely. I've publicly said in Greece that I'm not going to spend the money on handouts and subsidies here and there. I want to spend the money for real investments, real reforms.

It wouldn't be an exaggeration to call it a Marshall Plan for Europe, really. Certainly for Greece, it's not an exaggeration. Greece will be receiving in total close to 70 billion euros over the next six years. It's a lot of money, and it's our job to make sure that this money is absorbed and is spent wisely in projects that have a big multiplier effect, that are focused. Certainly what happened in Brussels has helped the brand of Europe, certainly in Greece.

Ian Bremmer:

Let's turn to a more difficult topic, which is Turkey. You were virtually giving a speech at the United Nations General Assembly just last week. You were calling on President Erdogan to give diplomacy a chance. Certainly there's been a lot of international allies that the Greeks have been relying on, including the United States, with Secretary Pompeo in your country this week. Is international diplomacy working now? I mean, certainly your two countries felt like they might have been at the brink of war just a few weeks ago.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis:

Well, it was a very difficult summer. I want to make it very clear it was not Greece that engaged in any escalation or provocation. This is about the limiting of maritime zones. It's been a disagreement we've had with Turkey for many, many years which we haven't been able to resolve. According to international law, if you have areas which have not been delimitated, no party should engage in unilateral activity until the problem is resolved. It can be resolved in two ways. We either negotiate and find a negotiated solution, or you can take the case to an international court ... in this case, the International Court of Justice in the Hague ... and let the court decide on your behalf.

Turkey didn't do either of the two. It sent an exploratory vessel into what we consider to be the Greek exclusive economic zone, accompanied by around 20 warships, and also engaged in rhetoric towards Greece which was extremely belligerent and flat-out hostile. Of course, we also mobilized our fleet, and we've reached a point. I think it's good that the Turkish ship is back at port, and we've agreed in principle to begin the exploratory talks, which is essentially the first stage before you enter into a formal negotiation, to sit down and see whether we can find some negotiated solution regarding this topic.

Yes, international diplomacy has played a role. I think it was very, very clear to many international actors that this was not just a difference between Greece and Turkey. This is not just a difference between Turkey, Greece and Cyprus. It's a difference between Turkey and Europe, because strategic European interests are at stake. It's also an topic that should really concern the US, because as you know, the US has expressed a renewed interest in the eastern Mediterranean. It doesn't want destabilizing forces in this part of the world, and this is why Secretary Pompeo's visit to Greece is so important.

There's also a new nexus of alliances being informed, the deal between Israel and the UAE. Greece has excellent relationships both with the UAE and with Israel, the trilaterals involving Israel, Cyprus, Greece, Egypt. There are lots of countries who think alike. Turkey chooses to sort of move in a different direction. I wish it were not the case. I wish we could have a very constructive relationship with Turkey, not only as a neighbor but also as a member of the European Union.

I think this diplomatic pressure, this carrot-and-stick approach, Europe threatening with sanctions ... which could actually have a big impact on the Turkish economy, given the state it is in right now with the lira constantly losing value vis-à-vis the dollar and the euro ... I think this international diplomatic effort resulted in us at least being cautiously optimistic that we can give diplomacy a chance, and this is what I will always try to do.

Ian Bremmer:

Do you think, though? I mean, the Europeans historically are divided on lots of issues, and Turkey is certainly one where there are lots of interests at play. Do you feel like that has given Turkey more flexibility? Has that caused more problems for you, or do you think that the Europeans are in a good place, from Greece's perspective, on this issue right now?

Kyriakos Mitsotakis:

I think the Europeans understand much better the situation than they did maybe six months ago, and that at some point this is an issue of principles. If the sovereign rights of a member state are attacked, it's an attack on the European Union. It's also a question of hard geopolitical power. If we argue that this is an area of critical interest for Europe ... and if we don't just want to be a soft economic power, if we want to exercise more geopolitical influence ... we should use the levers of our power, which in this case are economic, because we do have a lot of economic influence, and this understanding that we need to be more present and more forceful when articulating policies about our immediate neighborhood. This is not about something that's happening in the other side of the world, so we can't just afford to put the problem under the rug.

Ian Bremmer:

Most recently, we've got yet another war that has broken out between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Most countries are calling for an immediate ceasefire. Again the Turkish response has been different, immediately condemning Armenia and supporting Azerbaijan. How significant is this, both for Greece and the region?

Kyriakos Mitsotakis:

Oh, we've fully aligned ourselves with calls for an immediate ceasefire. Again, it raises questions as to who seems to jump into any armed conflict in the overall region, rather than giving diplomacy a chance. Again, let's see how this thing plays out. What we need right now is an immediate ceasefire, and give the established channels of diplomacy that are dealing with this issue a chance to reactivate rather than just engaging militarily, as seems to be the case.

Ian Bremmer:

A final point on these tensions is there are a lot of people that are saying that the refugees are becoming political pawns between Greece and Turkey in this fight. Obviously in a time of coronavirus, the people that are most stuck are those that are displaced, are those that have no economic capabilities. How do you deal with that challenge?

Kyriakos Mitsotakis:

Look, first of all I want to point out, Ian, that the Greek Coast Guard has saved thousands of people at sea over the past years, and our number one priority is to protect human life at sea. We also have a responsibility of protecting our borders. Of course, the people who end up coming to Greece will be treated humanely. They will be treated fairly. We have a new asylum procedure in place, so we're issuing final decisions much faster than we did.

Of course, this is a problem that requires a European response. We've had a first step, the European Pact on Asylum and Migration. It has some positive ideas that need to be fleshed out in more detail, but we need a unified framework, from protecting our borders, eradicating smuggler networks, common asylum rules, common burden sharing, be it relocation or returns, more assistance to frontier countries, to the countries of first entry, to manage the problems.

I think the European Commission has come up with a proposal that, certainly for Greece, can serve as a basis for discussion. A lot of people, since Europe failed in 2016 to deal with this problem at the European level, thought that the problem didn't exist, and that it was just a problem for member states who happened to be on the external frontier of Europe to deal with. That is not fair, and this is something which I personally will not accept as a matter of principle.

We will continue to take care of people who arrive in Greece in a humane manner, and make sure we accelerate asylum applications. For those of them who end up receiving asylum, they're welcome to integrate in Greece or, if they choose, to go elsewhere. For those whose applications are rejected, we need to do much more at the European level to make sure that we have organized returns to their countries of origin, because this, I can tell you now, is not happening.

Ian Bremmer:

When you and I last spoke on this show, you had not yet become prime minister of Greece. If today you could go back and tell Kyriakos of April 2019 one thing, what would it be?

Kyriakos Mitsotakis:

Well, I guess, "Throw away all your plans." I don't know, because we've had so many unexpected things happening. Yes, I do remember our last discussion. Certainly at the time, the topic was primarily the economy. No one thought of COVID, or a geopolitical crisis with Turkey or a new problem with migration. Again, I would argue that once you sit in the prime minister's chair, you realize that there are multiple, multiple problems you have to deal with.

The one thing which I think you need to do is to make sure you compartmentalize, deal with one problem at a time. Make sure you split your time in an effective manner and make sure, what I told you before, not just to be stuck in crisis management mode, but to devote significant bandwidth on the long-term changes. Because I'm convinced, Ian, that Greece is going to do extremely well once COVID is over. It has all the ingredients to grow rapidly. It has a lot of European support. There's a lot of interest for foreign direct investment in Greece, not just in tourism or renewable energy. Even sectors such as technology are going to be generating lots of interest, because we have fantastic human capital.

Frankly, in an era where you can work from anywhere, wouldn't you prefer to work from Greece or from a Greek island, especially if you know that you have fantastic connectivity? We actually will be one of the first European countries to complete our 5G auction. We passed the relevant legislation. If you feel you can work from anywhere and you're also safe and you have a good healthcare system, why wouldn't you choose to work or live or spend as much of your free time as you can in Greece? There's a lot of things about the Greek story which are attractive in the medium to long-term.

Ian Bremmer:

Prime Minister of Greece Kyriakos Mitsotakis, always great to see you, sir.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis:

Thank you very much. Pleasure talking to you, Ian.

Ian Bremmer:

That's it for today's edition of the GZERO World Podcast. Like what you've heard? Come check us out at gzeromedia.com and sign up for our newsletter, Signal.

Announcer:

This GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by Walmart. Around the world. Walmart aspires to use its strengths to transform the systems on which we all rely, setting ambitious sustainability goals, supporting the communities we serve, and creating development and advancement opportunities for our 2.2 million associates. Learn more at corporate.walmart.com/global responsibility.