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Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.
What's the outlook for President Biden's reelection campaign?
This week, President Biden announced his intention to run for reelection in 2024, on the same day that he made the announcement that he was going to run for president in 2020. Already the oldest president in American history, Biden would be 82 years old on inauguration day if he wins, and 86 on his last day in office, putting a lot of attention on his running mate, Kamala Harris, who has proven herself not exactly ready for primetime in the three years she served as vice president, but will be once again Biden's running mate in '24.
Biden's announcement video put a lot of emphasis on a key theme of the last three years of his presidential campaigning, which has been democracy in the United States designed to create a contrast with Republicans, and in particular former President Donald Trump, who's under investigation by the Department of Justice for inciting the January 6th riots to overturn the results of the last election. Biden's very unlikely to face any serious opposition within the Democratic Party who are largely united around beating Republicans. And despite his advanced age and approval ratings in the low forties, they don't want to do anything to jeopardize their chances of doing that.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump is looking pretty good so far in the nomination battle. Nobody has yet to emerge that can seriously challenge him. Although it is very early in this race and there haven't really been any serious declared candidates as we await for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to finish the Florida legislative session this year, and probably declare sometime later this spring. A rematch between President Trump and President Biden would pit two of the oldest candidates ever in American history against each other, which probably plays in Biden's favor because it makes his age less of an issue on the campaign. But if DeSantis is the nominee at age 44, he can really create that contrast with President Biden.
Biden has a pretty good legislative record to run on with a very productive two years of bipartisan accomplishments. And so far, the economy, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, it has been pretty resilient, which is typically a nice tailwind for an incumbent seeking reelection in the United States. We are almost a year and a half out from votes being cast in this campaign, and not a lot legislatively is going to get done this year, which means that US politics will be continually dominated by these reelection cycles and expect to see your news feed clogged with the latest drama around former President Trump and the potential reelection of President Biden. Thanks for watching.