<p><strong>US airstrike on Iran-backed militias: </strong>On Thursday, President Biden<a href="https://gzeromedia.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&id=9f47879c00&e=5c2c4c0008" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="" target="_blank"> ordered </a>an airstrike against "multiple facilities located at a border control point used by a number of Iranian-backed militant groups," according to the US military. The US side has called this a "proportionate military response" to three rocket attacks launched from Syria on US forces in Iraq. The first of those three attacks killed an American civilian contractor and wounded five others. If Iran is testing the new US president, this strike is meant to signal that the US will hit back if tested, but still hopes both sides can de-escalate. We'll be watching to see how many more punches Iran's proxies in Syria want to throw before Washington and Tehran <a href="https://gzeromedia.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&id=0dd37526bb&e=5c2c4c0008" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="" target="_blank">move to restart</a> nuclear talks.</p><p><strong>India-Pakistan ceasefire:</strong> <a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/pakistan-versus-india-nuclear-powers-by-the-numbers-2630284489" target="_self">Longtime foes</a> India and Pakistan have<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/25/india-pakistan-agree-to-stop-cross-border-firing-in-kashmir" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> agreed</a> to a ceasefire in the predominantly Muslim area of Kashmir for the first time in almost two decades. (A 2003 ceasefire along the <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Line of Control</a> was consistently violated.) In theory, this means that armed forces from both South Asian nations have agreed to stop exchanging fire across the border by midnight Friday, in a bid to end a low-grade conflict that's killed hundreds of locals and military personnel over the past few decades. Relations between the two sides have long been hostile but soured further in 2019 when New Delhi blamed Islamabad for a terror attack that killed 30 Indian military personnel, resulting in a series of tit-for-tat attacks and cross-border skirmishes. The row between the two nuclear powers went from bad to worse that same year, when India <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/31/india-strips-kashmir-of-special-status-and-divides-it-in-two" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">revoked </a>Kashmir's special status in an attempt to integrate the region into India, irking Islamabad and sparking an uptick in violence. However, the two sides have committed to halting hostilities and sorting out the status of disputed Kashmir before — it would be a massive feat if they can pull it off this time around. </p><strong>Coup in Armenia?</strong> Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has accused the army of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56194421" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">attempting to stage a coup</a> after the military establishment called on him to step down over the PM's alleged foreign policy blunders in the <a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/war-in-the-south-caucasus" target="_self">Nagorno-Karabakh conflict</a> with <a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/the-graphic-truth-how-do-azerbaijan-and-armenia-stack-up" target="_blank">Azerbaijan</a>. The PM — who has been <a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/what-were-watching-illiberals-veto-eu-budget-bangladeshs-all-female-cop-unit-armenian-pm-in-trouble" target="_self">under pressure to resign for months</a> over his ill-fated decision to surrender some territory to the Azeris in order to stop the conflict and ensure a longterm truce — responded by firing the head of the armed forces. Meanwhile, thousands of Pashinyan's supporters heeded his call to turn up on the streets of the capital, Yerevan, where they were met by a similar number of <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/unrest-in-armenia-after-claims-of-attempted-coup/31121396.html" target="_blank">anti-government demonstrators</a>. With the two main opposition parties supporting the army's demand for the PM to call it quits, Pashinyan is fast running out of options to stay in power. Meanwhile, of the two main outside players involved in Nagorno-Karabakh, so far Turkey has <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/turkey-condemns-coup-attempt-in-armenia/2156830" target="_blank">condemned</a> the coup attempt, while Russia has kept mum. Indeed, Pashinyan's political survival could in part depend on Russia, which has forces and military bases in Armenia. What will Vladimir Putin do?
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