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Annalena Baerbock, co-chairperson of Buendnis 90/Die Gruenen (Alliance 90/The Greens), speaks during the Greens Political Ash Wednesday.
Is Germany turning Green?
A Green Party-led government for the world's fourth largest economy?That's no longer far-fetched. As Signal's Gabrielle Debinski wrote last month, most current polls now show Germany's Greens in first place in federal elections set for September 26. And for the first time, the Greens have a candidate for chancellor. Annalena Baerbock is vying to replace Angela Merkel, who has led Germany for the past 16 years.
How have the Greens reached this point? A frustratingly ineffective COVID response, with on-again-off-again lockdowns, has undermined the governing center-right coalition's chief political selling point: a reputation for competent leadership. The ascendancy of climate change as a central issue across Europe, particularly for young voters, has helped too. Ironically, Merkel herself has helped mainstream the Greens with her own push in recent years against nuclear power and coal. A recent ruling on climate policy from Germany's Supreme Court has pushed the country even further toward emissions reduction commitments.
Thanks to Baerbock, the Greens may have real staying power. The party has a history of strong polling and weak election day performance. But this time, a decided lack of enthusiasm for center-right candidate Armin Laschet, who had to survive a strong leadership challenge from a more popular rival, is boosting the Greens' chances. This will be the first German election since 1949 in which the incumbent chancellor is not on the ballot, and Baerbock may appeal to voters who have supported Merkel more than they support her party.
More importantly, it would be a mistake to underestimate the Greens' 40-year-old standard bearer. The charismatic Baerbock isn't simply a made-for-television candidate. She's a detail-orientated expert on climate change and knowledgeable on foreign policy. A graduate of the London School of Economics, Baerbock speaks fluent English. She's already proven herself a gifted political strategist and bested Laschet in all recent head-to-head polls. But Baerbock is also the change candidate in a year that Germans may well want to turn the page on 16 years of center-right leadership.
A real shot at power has changed the Greens. Beyond their ambitious approach to climate policy, they've adopted a much more pragmatic foreign policy than in the past. A willingness to reach for votes from Germans who prioritize economic growth has moderated criticisms of China and Russia, for example. A respect for fiscal discipline led the Greens toward a restrained approach to financial aid for Greece during the Eurozone crisis.
Even if the Greens don't finish first in September, they're almost certain to be part of the next coalition government. Conservatives will have to offer substantive climate concessions to bring Greens into a partnership. In particular, the Greens want Germany to meet the Paris Climate Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by making all cars emission-free by 2030 and by raising carbon taxes. They also want to scrap a constitutional amendment that limits the government's ability to borrow to finance spending – a measure already temporarily suspended during the pandemic – in part to boost spending on green tech.
Do Germans really want change? It might depend on COVID's course. Laschet will offer himself and his party as steady hands. He will argue that Baerbock and the Greens have no idea how to run a government. But that case will be harder to make if the current government can't get Germans vaccinated and its economy on the road to recovery over the next 20 weeks.- Is it the Greens' moment in Europe? - GZERO Media ›
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Is it the Greens' moment in Europe?
Europe has been hit by a green wave in recent years. Green parties in countries as varied as Germany, Belgium, France, Ireland, Finland, and Sweden have made sizable electoral gains, with some now sitting in national governments.
The Green phenomenon seems to be gaining yet more momentum in the lead up to some crucial European elections (Germany, France) in the months ahead. What explains the green shift, and where might this trend be headed?
Collapse of the mainstream center-left. Mainstream center-left parties in places like the Netherlands and Italy, as well as the Labour Party in the UK, have imploded in recent years, hemorrhaging popular support as a result. But while these parties have collapsed, demand for left-of-center policies remains high. This is precisely what has taken place in France, where the once-dominant Socialist Party is now on the fringe of French politics — a vacuum that has been filled by France's Green Party. Polls suggest that the environment is the second-most important issue for French voters, behind unemployment, a shift reflected in the fact that France's three biggest cities — Paris, Lyon, and Marseilles — all have left-leaning mayors (Lyon and Marseilles are run by the Greens.)
But French voters are not just looking for politicians that pay lip service to leftist causes like the environment, they are seeking authentic center-left leadership. President Emmanuel Macron — whose LREM party exploited disillusionment with France's traditionally dominant center-left in 2017 and campaigned on a pledge to "make our planet great again" — has failed to resonate with left-wing voters that see him as a non-committal ideological chameleon who has watered down a once-ambitious climate agenda. The Greens have filled this void, making massive gains in municipal elections last year that forced a flailing Macron to introduce a wide-ranging climate bill. (Still, critics say the bill doesn't go far enough.)
Exerting outsized political influence. In some countries, Green parties have evolved from single-issue environmental protest groups into center-left blocs championing a range of issues. As a result, they have made inroads at the national level to significantly impact policy. In the Republic of Ireland, for instance, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, establishment parties, needed the support of the Green Party, which has just 4,000 registered members, to form a viable coalition government after the last election. The Greens agreed on the condition that the government commit to reduce carbon emissions by 7 percent annually. Since then, they have also helped pass a bill to put Ireland's net zero emissions goal into law. Those are big achievements for a party that holds just 12 seats in a governing coalition made up of 84 parliamentary seats in the lower house.
"Not the Greens of the Cold War" era. In some political contexts, the Greens have adopted a pragmatic approach to a political landscape that has undergone seismic shifts in recent years. Against the backdrop of a right-wing populist wave in Germany, as well as an economic model that is somewhat outdated in the age of a dominant China and worsening climate crisis, the German Green Party has tried to position itself as an authentic center-left party for the masses.
Under the joint leadership of Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock, who this week was tapped as the party's candidate to replace Angela Merkel as chancellor, the Greens have taken advantage of Merkel's conservative coalition's struggles to push a moderate foreign-policy agenda. The party has advocated for getting tougher on China and is also a proponent of NATO and boosting ties with Washington. Importantly, the Greens say that Germany needs to better address climate change without alienating the corporate sector and working-class people.
The Greens are now leading in the polls and have a solid chance to form the next government after Germans vote in federal elections this fall. Their success is drawing praise even from rivals. Norbert Röttgen of Merkel's CDU party, for example, recently said that "however embarrassing for me, the Greens have the clearest stance of all the parties on China and Russia."
Looking ahead. The green wave in Europe does not appear to be a fad. In many countries, people are desperate for change, and the Greens seem to be meeting the moment while other (traditional) political parties flounder.