Trump and police reform; India-China tension; North and South Korea

Ian Bremmer on this week's World In (More Than) 60 Seconds:

Number one: What police reform will result from Trump's executive order?

Well, on the one hand, it is a recognition that very strong and across the board, pretty bipartisan support in the United States for police reform. And so, he has to respond. And he can respond. I mean, the fact is that one of the most broadly supported bipartisan policies in the US that has come out of the Trump administration was penal reform.

That you got really strong progressive left and right wing support that Trump, Jared Kushner, others got done a couple of years ago. Here, we're talking about federal leverage on funding to ensure that there is more training for nonlethal and nonviolent climb-downs, non-escalation with engagement with people. There is talk of ending chokeholds. The thing that I guess concerns me is that there's really nothing that's going to be done from the executive order about police unions. And that is one area that really strangles to use that, any potential of long-term reform, structural reform in the police departments. But again, the message it sends very clearly is that no one, not even the president, can ignore the grassroots support for police reform, the outrage over the treatment of George Floyd and so many others in the United States. And that's going to also put more support for bipartisan reform in Congress, which will be much more substantive and hopefully much more lasting.

How serious is the escalating tension between India and China?

Well, two nuclear powers fighting over a very long and non-demarcated, non-walled border, non-policed border between the two. We now see that that soldiers have been killed. And India is in the middle of a number of border disputes right now that have escalated into skirmishing, not just with China. Also, with Pakistan, also over Tibet. And that is leading Modi, whose approval ratings are very high right now, there over 80%, because of a strong and decisive response to coronavirus, and a level of leadership that's quite supported domestically as a rally around the flag effect, it's going to lead to a lot of xenophobia in India. So, it is something we should, I think, watch out for, not because I think this is going to precipitate World War III, but rather because greater Indian nationalism, as driven by a leader who has shown himself very savvy and capable of using that, could lead to more broad confrontation, strategic confrontation and maybe even realignment between India and the subcontinent that has always wanted to steer clear of broader, great game geopolitics. And the China that is feeling increasingly insecure and besieged by its bad relationship with the United States really doesn't want a very bad relationship with India right now. But it might end up getting one.

What's going on between North Korea and South Korea?

Well, North Korea in North Korean fashion blew up this liaison office, literally exploded it inside North Korean territory. No one in it. Nobody injured or died. But showing very clearly that the North Koreans are not happy with the charm offensive between summitry with the American president. Been there, done that. And a lot of joint cultural exchanges, sports exchanges, others and some economic exchange with South Korea. But they want more. And their feeling is by playing hardball, they can get more humanitarian support. Particularly important for them with the global economy doing badly and therefore trade with China not being what it was a year ago. Having said that, no test of ICBMs, no nuclear tests, nothing that would precipitate a significant response from President Trump himself. And that seems to be the most important point is that North Korea wants me to be answering this question, they want headlines in the news. They've got that. But it does not in any way appear that they're trying to create a real confrontation. And, you know, with President Trump maybe on the ropes, certainly with a tougher election in front of him in November, I think that the North Koreans would like a reset from a period of more diplomatic normalization with either a second Trump term or with Biden. But that's very different from saying they're looking, they're itching for conflict and brinksmanship with the United States. Doesn't seem that way.

The fight against COVID-19 continues. What is the update?

The update is a lot more R or reproduction rate over 1.0. So, exponential in a bunch of US states. That's the bad news. Linked to the opening of the economy and opening in a much more dramatic and immediate way than where we've seen, for example, in Europe. It does seem pretty clear that linked to those openings are a lot more cases. We're seeing that Florida, we're seeing that in Texas, we're seeing that, in fact, across the American South and in some cases in the west as well. 18 states now that have an R 1.0 or higher. So, again, exponential growth of new cases. That's the bad news. The good news is that death rates are still quite low in the United States compared to where they were a few weeks ago. Now, of course, death rates lag new hospitalizations. So, that's a danger. It's still early to say that we're in a better place. I think this is, well, I'm getting more concerned, frankly, that the US economy is going to have a longer hit that comes off of this not second wave but extended first wave that we're still in very much in the United States.

Meanwhile, you've got countries all over the world, developing countries that clearly have people that have been under lockdown. They're not prepared to tolerate much more of it. They're economically much more challenged than the developed world. The governments in terms of relief and bail outs. The people in terms of how much they can sustain not being able to work productively and staying at home. You're seeing that play out in countries like Mexico and Brazil and India and Pakistan. All over the emerging markets. Less so sub-Saharan Africa, where there's not much testing and much younger populations. But that's a real danger. And certainly, you're going to see more explosive cases, both in terms of what we know, but also what we don't know, because they're not testing nearly as much in those countries. They're going to learn to live with and maybe die with coronavirus. So, not the happiest outlook.

One nice piece, it does seem like there is a treatment, coming out of the UK, that does seem to have some success. And they're now planning on rolling it out to those that are hospitalized and have severe symptoms, are on ventilators. And the early testing shows about maybe 10% reduction in the death rate in the UK if everyone had been able to be treated with this drug. And if, that is a steroid, if that's the case and you can get that rolled out broadly, and there's a lot of production that already exists around the world, that would be meaningful good news. Not in terms of a vaccine. But in terms of actual treatment of the disease. First time we might have seen a breakthrough on that scale. So, we'll watch that very carefully.

Building on its previous commitment, Walmart is investing an additional $350 billion in products made, grown and assembled in America - supporting more than 750,000 new jobs by 2030. This pledge will aim to avoid more than 100M metric tons of CO2 emissions, advance the growth of U.S. based suppliers, and provide opportunities for more than 9,000 entrepreneurs to become Walmart suppliers and sellers through Walmart's annual Open Call.

"The people are stronger," pro-democracy demonstrators chanted as news broke that the Sudanese military had staged a coup Monday, overthrowing the joint civilian-military government and dashing hopes of democracy in the war-torn country.

The backstory. In 2019, Omar al-Bashir – a despot who ruled Sudan with an iron fist for 30 years – was deposed after a months-long popular uprising.

Al-Bashir was a bad guy: he cozied up to terrorists like Osama bin Laden and dropped barrel bombs on his own people. He also embezzled truck loads of money from oil production while millions of Sudanese went hungry, and oversaw a genocide in the Darfur region that left 300,000 people dead and displaced 1.6 million.

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Sort of, but governments haven't lost all control yet. On the one hand, The Atlantic CEO Nicholas Thompson says that governments can still push tech companies for transparency in their algorithms, while Microsoft has partnered with the US government to together fight hackers "so the company is seen as a champion for freedom and democracy." On the other, over time Thompson expects tech firms in the US and China to gradually become more powerful as the state becomes less powerful toward them. Watch his interview with Ian Bremmer on the latest episode of GZERO World.

Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Big Tech: Global sovereignty, unintended consequences

As COP26 nears, the need for real climate action has never been more urgent. There are reasons for hope, but many scientists believe the ambitious goal of net zero emissions by 2050 is unattainable without immediate and significant change. Governments, financial institutions, and private sector companies alike have all recognized the need for a multistakeholder approach to solving this crisis of a lifetime.

Watch "Climate Crisis: Is net zero really possible?" a one-hour virtual livestream, hosted by GZERO Media and Microsoft as part of the Global Stage series, to hear scientists, corporate leaders and policymakers debate this question and offer critical perspectives on the way forward. Live on Tuesday, November 2nd at 11am ET, we'll break down what "net zero" means, take stock of where the world is on the path to carbon neutrality, and discuss critical steps needed to make real progress.

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Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Hey everybody and happy Monday. Back in the office, getting a little cool. So I've got my sweater going on. It's the first time I've had a sweater on. What do you do with that? Discussing fashion, as I talk to you about what is on my mind this week?

And what's on my mind this week, Facebook. Facebook is on my mind. It's a tough week for Facebook. There are all sorts of whistleblowers out there. There's testimony going on. There's calls for regulation. Everybody seems unhappy with them. Indeed, you even got the government relations types, Nick Clegg, who I've known for a long time back when he was a policymaker in the UK saying that the headlines are going to be rough, but we're are going to get through it. But I will say, first of all, I'm kind of skeptical that any of this goes anywhere in terms of impact on how Facebook actually operates.

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Turkey's Erdogan ups the ante with the West: Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared diplomats from 10 Western countries "persona non-grata" after the group — which includes the US, France, and Germany — called on Ankara to release Osman Kavala, a Parisian-born Turkish businessman who's been held in jail since 2017 but hasn't been charged with a crime. Erdogan says that Kavala was involved in an attempted coup against the government in 2016. This latest move is a sign of Turkey's authoritarian drift in recent years, which has seen Erdogan's government increasingly crack down on opposition members as well as journalists. It also reflects Turkey's increasingly fraught relations with the West: things got particularly bad between Washington and Ankara after Turkey purchased missile defense systems from the Russians in 2019. The Council of Europe (the continent's leading human rights organization) had previously warned that Ankara has until November to release Kavala or it would impose "infringements," though it's unclear what those would be.

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ASEAN gets tough(ish) with Myanmar: The leaders of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations meet Tuesday for their annual summit with one notable absence: the head of Myanmar's military junta. It's a rare snub from ASEAN, a regional bloc that's gotten a lot of heat in the past for giving tyrants a free pass. The junta says ASEAN violated its traditional principles of deciding by consensus by disinviting its leader, and non-interference in domestic affairs for demanding the bloc's special envoy meet detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi. For their part, the other ASEAN members have grown visibly alarmed at Myanmar's rapidly deteriorating political and economic situation since the February coup, and they're worried about the spillover effects of Myanmar becoming a failed state. More importantly, Myanmar is a big thorn in ASEAN's side as it walks a fine line between keeping warm ties with the US — which most members want cash and security from — and getting along with China, one of Myanmar's few remaining friends and viewed with suspicion by most ASEAN members over its South China Sea shenanigans.

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149: The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached a record-high 413.2 parts per million in 2020, 149 percent above pre-industrial levels. A new report by the UN weather agency released ahead of the COP26 climate summit found that last year's lower emissions due to COVID-related lockdowns had no impact on the overall amount of greenhouse gases causing global warming.

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