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Graphic Truth: Five years on from George Floyd, pessimism sets in
Five years ago this Sunday, a white police officer was filmed killing George Floyd, a Black man, in Minneapolis during an arrest. Video of the killing sparked protests, violence, and a racial reckoning in the United States and across the globe. Many segments of the public, especially on the left, clamored for institutional changes in the wake of Floyd’s murder — including an overhaul of US police departments — with the aim of addressing perceived systemic biases and advancing racial equality.
But since then, hopes for racial equality between Black and white Americans have waned. In January 2019, 65% of US adults believed that Black Americans would have equal rights with white people, per Pew Research Center polling. Today, that figure is 51%. The drop in optimism has been especially pronounced among white Americans, as the graphic shows.
A motorist rides past a hoarding decorated with flowers to welcome G20 foreign ministers in New Delhi, India, March 1, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Tense G-20 talks in India, Finland’s fence-building, China’s economic activity, Chicago’s mayoral runoff
An awkward G-20 summit in Delhi
When G-20 foreign ministers met in New Delhi on Thursday, it was, as expected, an awkward affair. While India, the current G-20 chair, had hoped that the bloc would focus on issues of importance to the Global South, like climate change and the global food crisis, the agenda was disrupted by US-Russia bickering over the war in Ukraine, which US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called "unprovoked and unjustified war", while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov blamed the West for not doing enough to extend a deal to allow Ukrainian grain exports that will soon expire. Of course, focusing on anything else was going to be a tall order when the top diplomats of the US, China, and Russia were all in the same room. (President Biden and Xi Jinping last met at the G-20 summit in Bali in November, though there was no bilateral meeting between the US and Russia.) In a sign of how fractured Washington's relationship remains with these two states, Blinken on Wednesday again urged Beijing not to send lethal weapons to Russia and canned China’s peace plan for Ukraine. As for US-Russia relations … need we say more? India, which has gone to painstaking lengths to maintain its neutral status over the past year, says it thinks the group can get stuff done. But at a meeting last month of G-20 financial heads, the group couldn’t even agree on a joint statement.
Finland builds a border fence against Russia
Rakentaa se aita! That's Finnish for "Build that fence!" — which is what Finland plans to do to protect its borders from Russian draft dodgers. Construction of a 10-foot tall wall, ahem, fence began this week along Finland's 800-mile border with Russia, with the first section expected to be finished by June. The Finns want to stop Russians from entering after fleeing the draft to fight in Ukraine, a number that could rise if Vladimir Putin orders another mobilization in the coming months. Meanwhile, Finland's parliament on Wednesday overwhelmingly approved the government's plan to speed up the process to join NATO — ideally along with Sweden, a fellow Nordic, if Turkey ever backs off. Going back to the fence, parts of it will have all the bells and whistles — night-vision cameras, lights, and loudspeakers — that former US President Donald Trump could only dream of for his partially built "Big, beautiful wall." And like Mexico, you can bet that Russia won't pay for it.
Chinese economic activity rebounds
China's official manufacturing sector purchasing managers’ index — a closely watched indicator of economic activity — reached 52.6% in February, expanding at its fastest monthly pace in over a decade. What's more, home sales rose for the first time in two years amid a persistent property-sector slump. The good: The two figures beat expectations and are a clear sign that the world's second-largest economy is recovering quicker than expected after abruptly ditching zero-COVID. The bad: The starting point was very low, as China's GDP grew last year by only 3%, barely half of what the ruling Communist Party had targeted. The ugly: While this is excellent news for Xi Jinping and a global economy that's eager for both more Chinese demand for stuff and more Chinese capacity to make stuff, economic activity has yet to reach pre-pandemic levels. Also, China's economy is still facing strong pressure from the fallout of the US-China rivalry, with American companies feeling increasingly bearish about the future as ties between Beijing and Washington get icier.
Chicago election result portends impending showdown over policing
Voters in Chicago denied Lori Lightfoot, who made history as the city’s first openly gay and Black female mayor, a second term amid concerns over rising crime, which increased by 41% between 2021 and 2022. Lightfoot, who cruised to office in 2019 on an anti-corruption platform, had been widely criticized for the high crime rate in America’s third-largest city. No candidate in the Democratic stronghold clinched over 50% of the vote needed to win outright this week, so the two remaining candidates – both Dems – will go to an April 4th runoff, with the controversial issue of policing underscoring the stark divide between them. On one side is Paul Vallas, who has drawn criticism for past comments and for associating with the Windy City’s controversial police union leader. He promises to add hundreds of officers back to the police force if elected. His challenger, Brian Johnson, favors investment in services like housing, education, and mental health over more policing. Amid rising post-pandemic crime in major US cities, political differences over investment in public safety measures will play an increasingly central role in US mayoral elections. We’ll be watching as Philadelphia and Houston head to the polls later this year.Demographics of those arrested for crimes in the US, 2020%
The Graphic Truth: The racial breakdown of US arrests
Criminal justice advocates often point to US incarceration rates as proof of racial disparities in policing and American courts. But many say that systematic racism is also reflected in how law enforcement targets individuals for scrutiny and subsequent arrest – the cases of Tyre Nichols and Eric Garner are but two headline-grabbing examples. Consider that, despite accounting for just 13.6% of the national population, 36% of those arrested for violent crimes in 2020 were Black. We take a look at the race profiles of people arrested for various crimes.
George Floyd Police Reform Bill unlikely to pass Senate
Jon Lieber, Managing Director of the United States for the Eurasia Group, shares his insights on US politics:
With the conviction of Derek Chauvin, will there be a George Floyd Policing Reform Bill?
Unlikely right now. It's possible, but there's a big divide between Republicans and Democrats over the issue of eliminating qualified immunity. Democrats want to get rid of it. Republicans want to keep it in order to make sure that cops aren't exposed to too much liability while they're on the job. And to get anything done in the Senate, you need 60 votes, which would, of course, require 10 Republicans. So, conversations are likely to be ongoing, but this issue went nowhere during the Trump administration because both sides decided they wanted something, to make something political out of it, and I don't think that much is going to change now.
Why did President Biden flip-flop on the refugee cap?
President Biden promised during the campaign that he would lift President Trump's refugee cap from 15,000 to its old level of 65,000. But with a surging migrant crisis on the southern border, Biden decided this wasn't a priority and changed his mind a little bit on undoing the refugee cap. The administration announced this last Friday and there was a lot of pushback from migrant and refugee advocates against them for doing so. They later that evening flip-flopped again and said that sometime in May they were going to announce a new policy that would satisfy most of their allies on the left. But the issue of the border is still a big one for President Biden, one that's been dormant for quite some time. But with a surging number of children in particular rising on the southern border, it's not going to go away.
Will Washington, DC become the 51st state?
I'm standing here on a street corner in DC and I think the answer is probably also unlikely. And the reason is similar to the George Floyd Bill, that you cannot get 60 votes in the Senate to pass this. You'd have to eliminate the filibuster and even if you did that, it's unclear today if there are 50 Democrats in the Senate who would favor doing so. The House has now passed the bill multiple times to make DC a state, but the outlook in the Senate is just not that good. Stay tuned, because this is going to be a really important political issue throughout the year, especially as the Democrats look at the likelihood they might lose the House of Representatives next year.
Reaction to the verdict in the trial of former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin.
What We’re Watching: George Floyd's family gets justice, India’s COVID mess, political turmoil in Chad
Guilty: Eleven months after George Floyd, an unarmed Black man, died under the knee of Derek Chauvin, a white police officer, on a Minneapolis street corner, we finally have a verdict in the murder trial. On Tuesday, a jury found Chauvin guilty of all three charges: second- and third-degree murder, as well as second-degree manslaughter. The verdict was celebrated by advocates for racial justice and police reform. Last summer, video footage of Floyd suffocating to death as he cried out "I can't breathe" galvanized anti-racism protests across America (some of which turned violent) that went global. We're watching to see if the jury's verdict gives fresh impetus to the nationwide movement for police accountability and broader criminal justice reform, both of which have been met with fierce resistance from law-and-order conservatives and police unions. And we'll also be keeping an eye on the sentence, as Chauvin faces up to 75 years in prison for his crimes.
The world's biggest COVID outbreak: India is currently suffering the world's largest COVID outbreak, reporting more than a quarter million new cases every day. Hospitals in large cities are overwhelmed, and oxygen tanks supplies are flagging. In New Delhi, this week there were as few as 100 intensive care beds available for a population of more than 30 million people. And although the official daily death tally from the disease is approaching 2,000, pileups at crematoria suggest the real toll may be much higher. Until a few months ago India seemed to have the virus under control, but a loosening of restrictions in February, combined with a slow vaccine rollout, likely contributed to the current wave. Opposition leaders have criticized Prime Minister Narendra Modi for not shutting down massive religious festivals sooner, and for continuing with massive political rallies ahead of several crucial state elections.
Vacuum of power in Chad: The North African nation of Chad has been plunged into a sudden political crisis after rebels killed longtime President Idriss Déby. Déby — in power for over 30 years and recently re-elected to a sixth term in office — was gunned down during a visit to soldiers in the northern part of the country. The government will now be run by a military council presided over by Déby's 37-year-old son, a four-star general who immediately dissolved parliament, imposed a curfew, closed the border, and promised to hold a new election in 18 months. The new leader's top priority is to stop the Front for Change and Concord in Chad, a little-known militant group formed by former army officers opposed to Déby, from marching on the capital, N'Djamena. Meanwhile, unrest in Chad presents a big opportunity for jihadist groups to take advantage of the political uncertainty to create yet another foothold in the increasingly volatile Sahel region.
Toronto the next Silicon Valley; AI in policing; NYC Marathon
Nicholas Thompson, editor-in-chief of WIRED, discusses technology industry news today:
Will Toronto become the next Silicon Valley?
A lot of really smart engineers are going to Toronto instead of the United States because of this country's self-defeating immigration policies. Building Silicon Valley requires even more. And ideally, there will be time for the United States to reverse all of its bad policies.
What role should AI play in policing?
There's a big scandal. Face recognition algorithms leading to an unjust arrest of a man for the very first time. Not surprisingly, this algorithms tend to not recognize black people. The man who was arrested in Detroit was black. I do not think that police departments should be relying on facial recognition for anything more than basic lead generation.
The New York City Marathon was just canceled. When will you next feel comfortable running a marathon?
I think it's going to be a while. I'd run a small marathon. People spaced out. Not one where there are thousands of people hunched together at the start.
GOP & police reform bill; US public on reopening; Biden's lead on Trump
Jon Lieber, managing director for the United States at Eurasia Group, provides his perspective:
What is the status of the federal police reform bill?
Well, the House has passed a bill already and the Senate has their own version. The big differences between the two is that the Senate bill doesn't ban chokeholds. It doesn't ban no knock warrants. And it allows qualified immunity for police to continue. Senate Democrats have said this is unacceptable. The bill cannot be fixed and have refused to even allow it to come to the floor of the Senate for debate. Not a great moment in U.S. congressional history. And it looks like this isn't going to happen.
Three and a half months into lockdown. Where does the American public stand on reopening?
Definitely reopening activity has gotten Americans out of their houses. In April, mobility data showed that about 19 percent of people visited friends and family, so far in June it's more like just around 50 percent have visited friends and family. People are moving around more. There's more activity in places where coronavirus cases are spiking. But public opinion polling also shows that people are willing to stay at home. Eighty percent of Americans say they will stay at home if ordered by the CDC or their governor or if there's a spike in cases or a decrease in hospital capacity. So people are still scared about the virus even as life returns to normal.
How durable is Biden's lead over Trump?
Well, this is really the million-dollar question for the election year this year. A lot of bad polls for President Trump recently. A poll came out today showing him down by three points in Ohio, which he won by 10 points in 2016. And another poll showing him down by 13 points nationally to former Vice President Biden. Long summer ahead of us there. Still four and a half months left in this campaign. A lot can happen. Two factors I think, may work in President Trump's favor. The first is former Vice President Biden's age, which has yet to really be exploited on the campaign trail. And I expect President Trump to make an issue out of that. And the second is any backlash from the recent protest movements and the tearing down of statues in the streets, which President Trump is also going to be keenly attuned to. However, with a bad economy and these bad poll numbers, he's certainly the underdog right now. He's got a lot of ground to make up.
Justice for Adama Traoré: Police brutality in France
The George Floyd protests in the United States have inspired countries around the world to take a closer look at their own problems with police brutality and racism. In France, thousands have recently taken to the streets to demand justice for Adama Traoré, a Frenchman of African origin who died in police custody in 2016. But how similar are the French and American experiences with policing and racial injustice?
To learn more, GZERO's Alex Kliment sat down with Mathieu Zagrodzki, a lecturer on policing and sociology at the University of Versailles. France has far fewer police killings than the US, Zagrodzki says, but he also points out a peculiarity of the French system that makes it impossible for the government know how extensive racial discrimination by the police might actually be.