Huawei: Staring into the Abyss

Huawei is putting on a brave face. The Chinese networking equipment giant, banned from acquiring US technology last month over alleged violations of international sanctions against Iran, last week claimed it had assigned 10,000 engineers to work around the clock to find ways to break its reliance on American code and computer chips. Spoiler: It's not going to work. If the US ban stays in place, today's Huawei won't survive.

Technology: To make its phones and networking gear work, Huawei needs semiconductors. To make those semiconductors, Huawei relies on software tools that are built by only a handful of US and European companies, which have suspended doing business with Huawei to comply with the US ban. Without access to these tools, or the software updates needed to keep them running, Huawei can't make viable products, and its business will collapse. It's as simple as that.

Politics: Huawei could try to seek a settlement. If Huawei were to admit guilt over the violation of Iran sanctions, fire some executives, and submit to US inspections to allay espionage fears, as it's already done in the UK, Washington might be willing to deal. But Huawei is China's most important and innovative tech giant. Kowtowing to the US would be humiliating both for company, the country, and in particular Chinese President Xi Jinping. There is no sign yet that Huawei or China are willing to go down that path.

But what about all those other countries that have signed deals with Huawei? Governments from Brasilia to Moscow to Kuala Lumpur have signaled they are sticking by Huawei despite US pressure. Just last week, Huawei signed a 5G deal with a Russian mobile telecom company. But unless the US ban is lifted, Huawei won't be able to deliver much beyond signatures.

What if Trump changes his mind? He's seeking leverage in his broader trade dispute with China, and as we know, he's turned on a dime before. All it would take is a single tweet and presto, Huawei's saved. But even if Trump decided to suspend the technology ban as part of a potential deal, the firm's reputation as a supplier may already be compromised. Telecom companies that are preparing to shell out billions of dollars to build their 5G networks would have to think hard about signing deals with a company that from now on will be squarely in the US crosshairs.

And so Huawei is probably going down. As that fact becomes clearer over the coming days and weeks, it will send shockwaves through both the $1 trillion global telecoms sector and through geopolitics. Don't say we didn't warn you.

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By pairing Microsoft's capabilities and data scientists with Seattle Children's medical research expertise, progress is being made on identifying the cause of SUID. Earlier this year, a study was published that estimated approximately 22% of SUID deaths in the U.S. were attributable to maternal cigarette-smoking during pregnancy, giving us further evidence that, through our collaboration with experts in varying disciplines, we are getting to the root of this problem and making remarkable advances.

Read more at Microsoft On The Issues.

William Hague: What is my prediction for the election?

Well, I think that conservatives will definitely have a bigger lead in votes over the Labour Party than at the last election, two years ago. Now that should give them a majority in the House of Commons. But then there will be tactical voting between Labour and Liberal voters against the Conservatives. And there are many undecided people at the last minute. So, I would go for a small conservative majority, maybe around 20 seats, which is also what some of the most sophisticated pollsters have said.

David Miliband: Who do you predict will win the UK elections?

I'm very careful about predictions, especially about the future, as someone famously said. The polls are pretty clear that this has been a dismal campaign, an unpopularity contest in all sorts of ways in which the lesser of two evils is perceived by the voters to be a conservative vote. So, the polls are giving a range of possibilities from a hung parliament right through to a large conservative majority. Obviously, I don't know who's going to win. My tour around the country last week gave me a real sense, a yearning really, for a better choice, for better choices, for more fronting up by the parties, because both parties have done a job of avoiding some of the hardest choices. And so, I predict that whoever wins, there are some very difficult choices ahead. And the sooner that politics is about what you're asking for as well as what you're offering. As Tawney said, after Labour lost the 1931 election, "we offered too much and asked too little." The sooner politics is about shared endeavor, the better for the country.

After a months-long investigation into whether President Donald Trump pressured Ukraine's president into investigating his political rivals in order to boost his reelection prospects in 2020, House Democrats brought two articles of impeachment against him, charging him with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. Click here for our GZERO guide to what comes next.

In the meantime, imagine for a moment that you are now Mitch McConnell, Senate Majority leader and senior member of Donald Trump's Republican Party. You've got big choices to make.

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Trump gets his deal – House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced yesterday that Democrats will back the USMCA, the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. Crucially, the bill will also have support from the nation's largest labor union. This is a major political victory for President Trump, who promised he would close this deal, but it's also good for Pelosi: it shows that the Democrats' House majority can still accomplish big things even as it impeaches the president. But with the speed of the Washington news cycle these days, we're watching to see if anyone is still talking about USMCA three days after it's signed.

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