Podcast: The Rise of Germany’s Far Right

TRANSCRIPT: The Rise of Germany’s Far Right

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

75 to 80 years ago, trains in Germany sent people to gas chambers. And now at that moment, 2015, trains arrived in Germany where Germans would embrace refugees.

Ian Bremmer:

It's been 70 years since the D-Day invasion brought about the beginning of the end for Nazi Germany. It's also been 30 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall, which despite lingering divisions between east and west, left Germany with a resurgent economy making it the most prosperous in Europe. But in recent years, German politics too have grown fractious. Moderate politicians like Chancellor Angela Merkel are having to fend off a new, though not unfamiliar political force intent on reviving that us versus them way of thinking, something that's growing all across the continent.

Ian Bremmer:

Hello and welcome to GZERO World. I'm Ian Bremmer. This is the place to hear extended interviews with world leaders, newsmakers and experts that I feature on my public television show each and every week. And today I'm going to examine the ultimate cautionary tale about what happens when rising nationalism and signs of a troubled economy combine. Modern day Germany, like many countries, is again experiencing both. Far-right political parties are growing in influence, blaming immigrants for their country's woes, and even calling on fellow Germans to reconsider their own atonement for Nazi crimes. And who better to help me out than a man who was once considered Germany's chancellor in waiting. I'm talking about none other than former Defense Minister, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg. Let's get to it.

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Ian Bremmer:

Delighted to be with Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, former Minister of Economy, former Minister of Defense of Germany. Great to have you on the show.

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

Lovely to be here.

Ian Bremmer:

Lots of things to talk about. Maybe I should start because we're now talking about the big R word with Germany, recession. I mean, you don't think of Germany as a place these days that has a lot of exaggerated economic dips and booms and yet this is a big story in Europe right now. What's happening in Germany?

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

Seems to be a big story because for some, Germany was the bore of the last decade. Oh, that's because it was somehow stagnant. It was managing its economy very well. It's kept stable during the big financial crisis and it's sort of the wakes quite sufficiently. And suddenly on the horizon we see that ghost of recession looming and there're definitely indicators. So the latest numbers weren't too promising. There is a growing nervousness within the country, but also of course in the European Union, because one of the stabilizing factors might start to struggle right now. So we have different reactions we are facing right now. Some politicians would say, let's just leave it as quiet as it is. Let's not disturb too much. The economy will somehow reestablish itself and others say we have to act now. And there has to be more than just sitting it out. And acting means, for instance, getting into infrastructure investments.

Ian Bremmer:

Spending.

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

Spending. Yes. And of course, and that's something a lot of Germans traditionally don't like because there's a certain obsession of not being too proactive. There are others who fear then we could come into the old inflation, deflation debate. And as you know, Germans are equally as obsessed of never even touching the term inflation again. So such things are also in the background of the whole debate. And it's something we have to be aware of.

Ian Bremmer:

German government under Merkel has been a large, fairly centrist government. It's been a grand coalition.

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

Struggling with the term grand though.

Ian Bremmer:

Yes. And yet very recently we have the Social Democrats coming, who are performing very badly, but saying, actually no, we're moving away from austerity. We want to start spending a lot more, is this a short term narrow political ploy or is this a recognition that what's happening in Germany is changing?

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

A little bit of both. On one hand they're with their back to the wall, they don't see any perspective any longer. There is that storyline across Europe. Has social democracy or the Social Democratic idea fulfilled its purpose? Is there a future for that kind of party? I personally hope so. It's a necessary balancing factor we definitely need, but they have to redefine and reinvent, of course what they stand for. Because if you look at it, we've just had the state elections in the east and the SD...

Ian Bremmer:

Two of them.

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

Two of them, and the traditional Social Democratic Party, not as traditional in the east, but has been almost pulverized it.

Ian Bremmer:

They are pulverized in particular by this new party. The alternatives for Deutschland, the AFD, the euro skeptics, they always perform better in former East Germany. But still for I think exceeding the expectations of most. Tell our viewers a little bit about who this new party is.

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

Well, I could give you the easy, blunt answer and say it's just a bunch of lunatics and well, yes, they do have a bunch of lunatics among their ranks there without a question, but it goes a little deeper. It is a group that has analogies to other political parties. We have seen being formed across the so-called western world as a reaction or as somehow as a picture being framed out of sheer despair of voters towards the so-called establishment connected with a growing nationalism. And that's something... And people would call it populism at the end of the day. I'm a little bit cautious with that term, but easy answers, nationalistic answers tied to those easy answers or combined with it lead to something where you have to put a framework around it and you call it a party at the end of the day, not only a movement. And that's part of the description for the AFD.

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

Then again, we have to distinguish Ian between Eastern and the former Western Germany and the so-called old states of Germany. In the East, you always had after reunification a very volatile voting behavior there. It's out of understandable reasons. They have been for one and a half, two generations been forced into voting a communist party and suddenly they have the freedom to vote for those who make the most appealing promises and voters there would shift from the far left to the far right.

Ian Bremmer:

Much more easily.

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

Much more easily.

Ian Bremmer:

We understand who they are. It makes a lot of sense that you're going to have people that come from rural areas, poorly industrialized areas are going to be more disenfranchised. Happens in the US, happens all across Europe. What they want on the other hand does feel a little bit different, right? Because I mean, we're not... In Germany, you've got a country that the people generally feel like they benefit from the EU, kind of like in Mexico, they benefit from NAFTA, right? So that wasn't playing when you had the populace. You don't have the Germans saying, we need to rebuild a big military might. So when you talk about German nationalism today in 2019, what does it feel like? What exercise is it, what moves it?

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

But now points some of them you see in other countries around the globe as well. So one is anti-immigration, certainly now connected and even pushed forward with the immigration and refugee crisis we have had after the year of 2015. So that's one topic. The other one is a skepticism towards giving up more or less all sovereignty towards the European Union. That skepticism is not based on firm grounds because not a single European member state has given away everything, last bit of its sovereignty. It reflects a deeply grounded kind of, let's say "romanticism" towards the good old times without describing it properly. The good old times had their own difficulties.

Ian Bremmer:

When were the good old times in Germany?

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

So for some of them, the good old times were when we still had the Deutsche Mark and when we were not tied to a Euro. Good old times where when we only had to handle a few workers coming from Italy and Turkey to us, helping us with things we wouldn't like to handle ourselves. And entirely pushing aside to the sidelines, the realities and difficulties of those times as well.

Ian Bremmer:

Can we talk about German nationalism? Is there a feeling not just among the fringe, but more broadly that we've apologized enough, there is no more need for us to be a constrained and abnormal country and we need to forget about our past?

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

I strictly oppose that view. I don't think that's true. We have just remembered 80 years of September 1st, 1939, the beginning of World War II. And I've been in Germany last week and during that week as well. And I've talked to many, many people and whomever I talked to, regardless whether the voters of the AFD and others, all of them said, that's something we need to remember. And that's something that remains to be a burden. It remains to be a shame. It remains to be something we have to remind next generation that it never ever happens again. So of course you do have your five to 10% of people would say, no, it's over and we've done enough and we've done more than any other nation around the globe trying to learn our lessons and we should be back to normal. I think it never can be back to normal entirely.

Ian Bremmer:

In Germany today, do you feel like the average German has a better grounded sense of what the country stands for because of its history?

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

I do think so, and I do think so because there is a combination of both. On one hand you would have that even forced element of remember, remember, remember, never let it happen again. And then the other hand you have a growing or an increasing feeling and remembrance of hundreds of years before where things have been created that could just be called wonderful culturally. It's in literature, in music and all the things. So those are things that are tied to the memory or two memory aspects put together. And then combined with the third factor, having managed to walk your way or to work your way out of the disaster of the Second World War and whatever happened there into what we call the Wirtschaftswunder, the economic miracle after 1945, rebuilding the country with the help of the US, with the help of others and creating one of the strongest countries around the globe that takes responsibility also globally. And that's something where people would combine an element of don't forget the darkest hours of your history with embrace with pride what has happened afterwards and form something out of it that you would call some kind of responsible view of your own country.

Ian Bremmer:

How has President Trump and his administration affected the way the Germans think about their role in the world, if at all?

Donald Trump:

Wiretapping, I guess by this past administration, at least we have something in common perhaps.

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

I think the attitude the current president over here has shown to constantly bash allies and to constantly criticize others and not to come up with solutions where we could achieve something together, led more to a hesitant approach of German politics to do more because there is not an element of trust any longer. Whether whatever you do would be something you do together or whether it's just driven by a mood by someone who is sitting there with his cell phone preparing the next tweet. And so therefore, if you have that kind of reliability or unreliability on one side of the Atlantic, your willingness to step up and to say, well, let's do more in this or that context could be limited.

Donald Trump:

Now Merkel is nearing the end of her tenure.

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

That's what people say.

Donald Trump:

But what do you think the next... go back, the next leader of Germany, how do you think they're likely to be different from Merkel? What are things that we're going to turn the page on no matter who it is?

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

So the next German leader needs, definitely needs to be someone who steps up and tells a European public how he or she would like to see Europe shape in the future. The next German leader needs to be one who is capable and willing to position Europe with that cascade of ideas between the US and China. The next German leader needs to be very clear where we will be leaning towards for a German/European future. Is it still the Western alliance or is it a combination of taking advantages of China being way more active and proactive on the European continent? I think we are well advised to reestablish the transatlantic relationship. Of course that very much also hinders on who is sitting over here and whether it's someone flip-flopping every single second or whether it's someone also convinced of that relationship. But all the... And if we have this president over here still in power with the next German leader, we need someone who is equally as Angela Merkel capable of phrasing his or her own opinion and with the necessary stamina that's needed.

Donald Trump:

Since you just saw Chancellor Merkel a few days ago, tell me a little bit about what was on her mind about how her mood was given where we are in Europe right now?

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

So we always have, of course very confidential encounters.

Ian Bremmer:

Let's leave that aside.

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

But it's no secret to say that she's worried about Europe right now, that certainly the question of Brexit is being handled is on top of her mind and the question who will give the right ideas of what that could mean for the future structure of the continent, of the European continent as well.

Speaker 6:

What's your message to the country, Mr. Johnson?

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

Secondly, she was just leaving to China. And this year the only European leader actually making that trip. And so at the moment when she has been hard pressed by many, you have to give a signal regarding Hong Kong, and you are our last hope when it comes to human rights and other things. Speak up. But at the same time, of course, there's a lot of other cold-blooded interests driven by the business sector, by economic interests and other things. So those were things, of course, she was thinking about at that time how to handle it. And yes, it's about where will Germany stand in 3, 4, 5 years with whomever leading it.

Ian Bremmer:

And tell me what briefly you think Merkel's legacy will be. I mean, you know her well, how will she see her legacy?

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

She's lacking one thing a lot of politicians would see as their driving force for being elected and it's vanity. And so I'm really not sure how she would like to be seen. I just met her a few days ago again, and it's never ever about herself. It's about her country, it's about the people. So how will she be seen? I think one major point will be not only first elected woman as German Chancellor, not only the fact that she has probably been in office longer than Helmut Kohl, those are side effects. I think one of the main achievements is keeping Germany on a successful road during one of the largest financial crisis the globe has seen. And that was an enormous achievement, keeping Europe together at that very time. Although others would say Germany put other European member states at risk, but that was definitely not her goal. She kept the thing together.

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

And then of course there'll be critical voices on one hand in respect of how she dealt with the refugee crisis. But there will also others be in the history books who will say, remember one thing about 80 years ago, 75 to 80 years ago, trains in Germany sent people to gas chambers. And now at that moment, 2015, trains arrived in Germany where Germans would embrace refugees. And that's something where she set a humanitarian example and yes...

Ian Bremmer:

And suffered one of her greatest political defeats.

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

And suffered one of their greatest political defeats, and of course was almost obliterated by party members. How could you? And were their mistakes? Absolutely. Was it managed well? Not entirely. But I think there will be some kind of a split reactions amongst historians, whether she acted highly responsibly, humanitarian, and with an amount of soul and heart you usually don't expect from politicians or whether she just mismanaged how to deal with it or the question of how to deal with it. And that's something where I can't tell you the result yet, but I wish that it will be a fair look back. She'll never be seen as someone highly charismatic. She'll never be seen as the most imposing leader, but she'll be seen as someone who was capable of managing day-to-day politics, probably more with the best, as we say in German, costume of nerves imaginable around her as she was dealing and juggling all these things very properly. And yes, could she have done a little bit more here and there for problems of the next generation? Maybe, but that's not her style.

Ian Bremmer:

Karl-Theodor, thank you very much.

Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg:

Thank you, Ian.

Ian Bremmer:

That's our show this week. We'll be right back here next week. Same place, same time. Unless you're watching on social media, in which case, wherever you happen to be, don't miss it. In the meantime, check us out at gzeromedia.com.

Announcer:

The GZERO World podcast is brought to you by our founding sponsor, First Republic. First Republic, a private bank and wealth management company, places clients' needs first by providing responsive, relevant, and customized solutions. Visit firstrepublic.com to learn more.