Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What would a ground invasion of Gaza look like?
Two steps here. And I do think it's very likely indeed. The first is the Israelis basically send troops in and divide Gaza in two. They surround Gaza City. They take over the rest of the territory. Small cities lightly populated basically, not urban warfare. That can be done in a matter of probably five days a week. But much longer than that is Gaza City itself. That's where they really get bogged down, take lots of casualties. That could be a matter of a month or even more. And of course, what do you do once you've taken it? No one's answered that.
How much support does Hamas have within Gaza?
I think an enormous amount of support. I think that increasingly, as the situation has become much more desperate economically, as well as from a security perspective in Gaza, that Hamas has gotten more support, born of desperation, certainly a majority of Palestinians on the ground in Gaza, not in the West Bank, which is a larger Palestinian population, I think, support Hamas at this point. Again, yes, that is a terrorist organization.
What is Iran's next move?
I think sit back and wait to see how this plays out. Hard for me to imagine that Iran would want to be involved directly in this war. Things are going pretty well for them right now. They've got better relations with China, break through with Saudi Arabia. They just got, you know, 6 billion that's going to be unfrozen of their own assets by the Americans. And the idea that they want to have a war with Israel seems to me very far-fetched. But watch Hezbollah closely. They're much more operationally capable than Hamas and also have a lot closer ties directly with the Iranian leadership.
How does US support for Israel compare to US support for Ukraine?
US support for Israel, well, I mean, at the beginning of the Ukraine war, I'd say it's very close. And this, of course, is the beginning of Israel's fight in Gaza against Hamas. But right now, I would say that American support for Israel is overwhelming and bipartisan. It is whatever it takes for as long as it takes. I heard President Biden say that about Ukraine just a couple of months ago. Ukraine is becoming very much a partisan issue caught up in the election. I don't believe that an Israeli war in Gaza will go on for nearly as long as the Russia war in Ukraine. And so I think that bipartisan support is likely to stick, but certainly there will be pressure on it the longer the war goes.
More For You
Could China give Europe a shortcut in the AI race?
Europe has struggled to build models that compete with American and Chinese rivals. But Chinese models that companies can download, customize, and run themselves could offer another way forward—with more control over data and security.
Most Popular
With the midterms just weeks away, Democrats are hoping for a blue wave, while Republicans are fighting to hold onto Congress. Amy Walter and Liam Donovan join Ian Bremmer to break down the races, the issues driving voters, and what the results could mean for Trump's presidency.
With the midterms just weeks away, Democrats are eyeing control of Congress as Republicans struggle with the political fallout from the Iran war, rising prices, and Trump's unpopularity. Amy Walter and Liam Donovan join Ian Bremmer to break down what could happen in November and what it means for the future of both parties.
Since returning to power in 2025, the Trump administration has drastically changed the answer to this question, pursuing an ‘America First’ philosophy that is dramatically more transactional: the US will give you money, but you must give the US something valuable in return.