THIS DEAL, NO DEAL, OR MORE TIME? A CRUCIAL BREXIT WEEK

The economic future of the UK – and the political future of PM Theresa May – (once again!) hang in the balance this week as British lawmakers take up three big Brexit votes.


Tuesday – "Take it or leave it": Today Parliament will decide whether to approve May's existing Brexit deal – yes, essentially the same one that lawmakers crushed by a historic margin of 230 votes back in January. The one that ran aground in part because it would allow the UK to stay closely aligned with the EU until a solution can be found to the Irish border question. No one we know thinks the deal will pass today, but the margin of defeat matters. If it's huge, that would spell the end of May's deal altogether and might even push her towards resigning. A narrower loss, meanwhile, would at least leave open the possibility that she could go back to Brussels and say "look, we're close, work with me" though the EU seems disinclined to allow that. May reportedly secured some minor concessions from the EU late yesterday evening, but it's not clear if those are enough for her to claim real progress towards a better deal.

Wednesday – "Deal or no deal?": If the deal vote is a blowout loss, then May will ask Parliament for a second vote on whether it can live with so-called "no-deal Brexit", one in which the UK hurtles out of the EU with no economic transition agreements at all. Given how economically disruptive that would be, odds are most lawmakers will vote against it.

Thursday – "Can I get a minute": That, in turn, would lead to a third vote: whether to extend the current "Brexit" deadline of 29 March, giving officials more time to sort out the issue.

We'll be watching this story all week….

It was inevitable that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would make India's elections a referendum on Narendra Modi, and now that the vast majority of 600 million votes cast have been counted, it's clear he made the right call.

More Show less

Among the 23 men and women now seeking the Democratic Party's nomination to take on Donald Trump in next year's election, the frontrunner, at least for now, has spent half a century in politics. Former Vice President Joe Biden, first elected to the US Senate in 1972, is the very epitome of the American political establishment.

Yet, the dominant political trend in many democracies today is public rejection of traditional candidates and parties of the center-right and center-left in favor of new movements, voices, and messages. Consider the evidence from some recent elections:

More Show less

It's Friday, and Signal readers deserve at least one entirely upbeat news story.

José Obdulio Gaviria, a Colombian senator for the rightwing Democratic Center party, is an outspoken opponent of government attempts to make peace with the FARC rebel group after 50 years of conflict.

On his way into a meeting earlier this week, Gaviria collapsed. It was later reported that he had fainted as a result of low blood pressure probably caused by complications following recent open heart surgery.

A political rival, Senator Julian Gallo, quickly came to his rescue and revived him using resuscitation skills he learned as—irony alert—a FARC guerrilla. CPR applied by Gallo helped Gaviria regain consciousness, before another senator, who is also professional doctor, took over. Gaviria was taken to hospital and appears to have recovered.

Because some things will always be more important than politics.