North Korea Summit: Outside the Eye of the Storm

The momentarily canceled Trump-Kim summit was, perhaps, un-canceled over the weekend, after a surprise meeting between the leaders of the two Koreas in which they held each other — tenderly even. President Trump declared that preparations for the summit are in motion, and specialists on both sides are evidently on it.


We aren’t going to whiplash around every twist and turn on the road to Singapore, but one thing that my fellow Signalista Gabe thinks shouldn’t go unnoticed is this: whether the summit happens or not, the peculiar geopolitical-astrological alignment of Trump’s presidency and Kim’s audacity has already reshaped the geopolitics of Northeast Asia in three important ways.

Closer Koreas: In just over a month, the leaders of the two Koreas have met as many times as all of their predecessors since the Korean War combined. Public opinion in South Korea has warmed considerably towards the North. South Korean President Moon Jae-in has seized on Trump’s unconventional style to pursue precisely the conciliatory path with Pyongyang that he’s always favored. The longer he can keep Trump at the table (or at least circling around it), the more time Moon he has forge a closer, and less conflict-prone, relationship with the North.

China resets: Barely a year ago, North Korea and China were openly venting at each other. But Kim has travelled to Beijing twice now, all smiles. As Trump aims for a Nobel prize, China spies an opportunity to dictate any Korean settlement on terms favorable to Beijing’s economic and strategic interests. For their part, China and South Korea are also more aligned than ever on how to approach the North. Last week, they agreed to offer a package of economic assistance for Pyongyang in exchange for a slow, phased denuclearization.

Japan warms to China: Trump’s decision to largely leave Japan out in the cold on North Korea diplomacy has pushed Tokyo to open new channels with Beijing, traditionally its main regional foe. Xi and Abe have spoken by phone for the first time ever, and Japan has expressed support for key Chinese economic initiatives, in part to secure a seat at the table in any eventual talks. That represents a potentially major diplomatic thaw, but also a palpable reorientation for the United States’ closest regional ally. (For more on US allies whom Trump has pushed warily towards China, see here.)

Why it all matters: Whether or not the Trump-Kim summit happens, big and decisive changes have already occurred in the region. What do they all have in common? You tell us what pattern you see here…

Populist nationalists who have rocked the political establishment in European capitals from Rome to Berlin in recent years now have their sights trained on a new target: the European Union itself.

Starting tomorrow, voters across the bloc's 28 member states will cast ballots for the next European Parliament, the Union's legislature. Candidates from across the bloc compete for 751 seats that are divvied up roughly according to each member state's population.

The Parliament is the only democratically elected governing body of the EU, and it has final say over contentious issues like EU-wide migration policy, trade rules, and budget allocations. The EU Parliament also plays a role in selecting the EU Commissioner, the bloc's most powerful official.

That power is something that far-right populists, buoyed by success in their own countries, now want a bigger piece of. In particular, Italy's Matteo Salvini and France's Marine Le Pen, whose parties once advocated for leaving the EU, are now joining in a loose alliance with other populist nationalists, hoping to win enough seats to bend EU rules in the more anti-immigrant and nationalistic direction that their supporters want.

Polls suggest the nationalists will do very well: A pro-EU coalition of the center-left and center-right is expected to lose its majority for the first time in 40 years, as parties from the extremes, but particularly the right, surge.

But they are still badly fragmented. While the populist-nationalists agree that they want less oversight from Brussels and a more restrictive immigration policy, they haven't been able to coalesce into a single bloc, because of disagreements over who would lead the group and what its main objectives should be. That means that the next EU Parliament may end up deeply fragmented and ineffectual.

The campaigning for EU Parliament also has a lot to do with national politics, and here there are a few key implications to watch:

French President Emmanuel Macron's forceful and defining push for a more unified Europe would effectively be dead if populist parties score a big victory – that could pull the rug out from under him in national politics as well.

Italy's Salvini might call for snap elections at home if the polls confirm his Lega Party's growing popularity.

In Poland, the ruling Law and Justice Party, which faces national elections later this year, is looking to gauge whether its prolonged fight with the EU over rule of law and cultural issues has been a political winner or if it's a reason the party has lost some ground to the opposition.

The upshot: Far from a snooze-fest, this week's elections could significantly shift the direction of the world's largest economic bloc.

Does the European Union even hear the voices of average European citizens? As millions of people prepare to cast ballots in European Parliament elections, that's a good question. As this graphic shows, more Europeans feel "heard" by the EU today than ten years ago. But what, precisely, they are saying to the EU with those voices is something that we'll understand better when we see the election results this weekend.

Back in January, we warned that an intensifying "Tech Cold War" between the US and China over technology and trade could plunge global innovation into a deep freeze as both countries impose fresh restrictions on the free flows of money, people, and information that (throughout history) have powered new ideas.

We're not at the winter solstice of innovation just yet, but the US's move last week to restrict Chinese networking equipment giant Huawei's access to US markets and technology sent an awfully chilly wind through the tech sector.

Here are two ways that a decoupling of the Chinese and American tech sectors could damage innovation in the US:

  • Less good money: Huawei spends roughly $10 billion a year buying hardware and software from US firms. Total Chinese tech industry purchases are many times greater than that. A portion of that money is reinvested by Silicon Valley in R&D; to help develop the next generation of innovative tech products. If Chinese firms can't – or won't – buy from American companies, a lot of R&D; cash will vanish.
  • Fewer good brains: US semiconductor companies are already struggling to hire highly coveted Chinese engineers as the Trump administration slow-rolls their visa applications over national security fears. But top tech talent is hard to come by, and there aren't always qualified workers from the US or other countries available to pick up the slack.

The upshot: The United States has plenty of well-founded grievances with how China runs its economy and its increasingly powerful tech sector. But the costs of Washington's more confrontational approach are already becoming apparent. Those costs will rise further if the US and China's deeply linked tech sectors decouple more fully and formally, as some China hawks in the US hope. At what point do the costs start to outweigh the benefits?

Iran's proxies – The thing about "proxies" is that you don't always have perfect control over what they do. To varying degrees, Iran funds and backs Hizbullah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and various militias in Iraq. But these groups also have agendas and interests of their own. Sometimes they'll do things Iran doesn't want them to do. At a time of high tensions between Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United States, these proxies can create trouble for Iran whether they've acted in coordination with its government or not.

Finns fighting fake news "Fake news," the dissemination of false information designed to create confusion and sow division, has become a truly global problem, but at least one country has a proven track record in helping its citizens to recognize and reject it. Finland has faced information warfare in various forms since declaring independence from Russia a century ago, but since Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014, the country's government has worked hard to help its people – in particular high school students -- spot false information. This report suggests we can all learn something from the Finns' example.

What We're Ignoring: Fruitless British ploys and Venezuelans at the Pentagon

A second referendum on Brexit – A collective guffaw arose in the office here when we learned yesterday that British Prime Minister Theresa May had made yet another attempt to rally support for her thrice-rejected deal to leave the EU. This time she promised to let Parliament vote on whether to hold a second referendum on Brexit, but only if MPs pass her withdrawal agreement first. It's a notable concession by May, who had previously resisted calls for another referendum. But some prominent Brexit supporters have rejected the move, and we doubt that a whole lot of Remainers will be swayed by a promise to hold a vote on whether to ask the public to hold a vote.

Venezuelan talks – An emissary of Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó (recognized as president by more than 50 countries) went to the Pentagon on Monday for talks with the US military, evidently about humanitarian assistance. This follows last week's meetings in Norway between reps of both Guaidó and President Nicolas Maduro. Talks are good, but we don't see much scope for progress. Guaidó wants the one thing – free and fair elections – that would be certain political suicide for Maduro, whose approval rating is a deservedly pitiful 12 percent. But following Guaidó's failed April 30 uprising, the Maduro regime is feeling like it's got the momentum now. We see no compromises on the horizon.