We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
Results for Saudi Arabia
Amid growing global calls for a cease-fire in Gaza and rapidly escalating tensions across the Middle East, Arab states and the US are increasingly looking towards a longer-term solution that revives the idea of a Saudi-Israel normalization deal that includes the outlines of a Palestinian state.
At least one Israeli leader isn’t completely opposed to the idea: Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Thursday said that Saudi Arabia formally recognizing Israel would be “key to the ability to exit from the war into a new horizon.”
This came just two days after Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said the kingdom would “certainly” be willing to recognize Israel – though only as part of an agreement involving the creation of “a Palestinian state.”
The idea isn’t totally new. Prior to Oct. 7, there was a Saudi-Israel normalization deal in the works too, but Palestinian statehood was not viewed as Riyadh’s top priority at the time.
So just how realistic is this revitalized effort?
“It’s good politics in the US,” and the White House believes “it’s the best way to induce Israel to be more reasonable on the Palestinian issue,” says Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute.
Still there are two big problems.
First, the ongoing war in Gaza. The Saudi ambassador to the US on Thursday said that normalization won't be possible until there's a cease-fire.
Second? An obstacle named Bibi. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday said he has told the US he categorically rejects any calls for a post-war Palestinian state, stating that Israel needs “security control” over all territory west of the Jordan River, which includes the West Bank and Gaza. That’s Bibi’s version of “river to the sea.”
With factions of his hard-right government opposed to making concessions to Palestinians and “no consensus” on governance in post-war Gaza, it’s going to be “difficult to get the necessary pieces aligned over the short-term” for any normalization deals, says Sofia Meranto, a Middle East analyst at Eurasia Group.
Putting Bibi in a corner? But as Washington and Arab countries continue to champion this approach, it could further isolate Bibi at a time when he’s extraordinarily unpopular in Israel.
Netanyahu is standing in the way of an important diplomatic initiative that could strengthen the Jewish State and stability in the region, says Ibish, and the Biden administration, which wants Bibi gone “as soon as possible,” is making the point to the rest of Israel that this could be possible without “obstruction” from the Israeli leader and “his extremist friends.”
Whether this will bear fruit remains to be seen, but it’s a space we’ll be keeping a close eye on in the days ahead.
The Constitution explicitly forbids a president from taking gifts or payments “of any kind whatever from any King, Prince, or foreign State” without permission from Congress – but it’s hard to see what Democrats in Congress might do to hold Trump accountable for allegedly breaking the law.
Using financial records from Trump’s former accountants, Congressional Democrats found evidence that the former president accepted at least $7.8 million during his time in office from foreign government entities who booked space at Trump properties. That represents just a fraction of the total probable sum, as Republicans halted efforts to force the accountants to fork over more documents when they regained control of Congress in 2022.
Some highlights from the report:
- $5,572,548 from China.
- $615,422 from Saudi Arabia.
- $465,744 from Qatar.
- $154,750 from Afghanistan.
- $25,171 from the Democratic Republic of Congo (That’s about 32 years’ worth of wages for the average Congolese, by the way).
So this is pretty clear-cut, right? Trump is accused of doing something the Constitution explicitly forbids. Surely, there will be some sort of formal consequence? Probably not, and don’t call me Shirley.
The Democrats’ report ends with pretty milquetoast calls for Congress to implement more stringent disclosure rules and formalize a process for presidential requests to keep gifts and payments from foreigners.
In Riyadh, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (widely known as MBS) hosted a joint Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit, whose leaders on Saturday called for an immediate halt to Israel’s “barbaric” military assault in Gaza — stopping short of imposing political or economic sanctions on Israel.
Why the mixed message? The Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s military response in Gaza have put MBS in a bind. The king-in-waiting’s top priority remains the modernization of his kingdom and its economy. That’s the central purpose of his Vision 2030 project to diversify the Saudi economy away from its longtime dependence on oil exports for growth and revenue.
Before Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, Saudi officials were working toward a historic deal to normalize relations with Israel that could help stabilize business relations in the region and boost relations with the United States, a plan MBS hopes might include some form of US security guarantee and material support for a Saudi nuclear energy project.
The war in Gaza brought that bargaining to an abrupt halt. US and European officials want the Saudis to help finance and police a post-Hamas Gaza, but MBS has no interest in assuming those costs and risks. He also considers Hamas an ally of Islamist terrorist groups who threaten the Saudi government.
Some in the Muslim world, meanwhile, want the Saudis to punish Israel and its chief backer, the US, for the deaths of Palestinian civilians in Gaza by cutting oil exports that would push prices sharply higher. But major oil customer China, grappling with a serious economic slowdown, won’t be happy if the Saudis send near-term prices soaring. The delicate dance continues.
2: Ukrainian authorities said Tuesday they had detained two colonels in the State Guard, the unit responsible for protecting Kyiv’s most important officials, who were allegedly plotting to kill President Volodymyr Zelensky and members of his government. The suspects were allegedly working for the Russian Federal Security Service and may have planned to carry out the assassination to coincide with President Vladimir Putin’s inauguration.
5: Speaking of, Putin was inaugurated for his fifth term as president of Russia on Tuesday in a glittering ceremony at the Kremlin. Putin has led Russia since 1999, with a brief stint as prime minister while his puppet Dmitri Medvedev helped change the constitution to make Putin president again. His new term ends in 2030, but his reign likely won’t.
2: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) met with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) two days in a row on Tuesday before announcing she would back off on her threat to unseat him. Johnson has now survived the wrath of the far-right despite needing to cooperate with Democrats to pass bills, a move that doomed his predecessor.
1.5: Saudi Arabia has downscaled the first segment of its Neom project, the “line city” that is envisioned to stretch 105 miles through the Saudi desert, from 10 to just 1.5 miles by 2030 amid delays and cost overruns. With around $100 billion of the original $500 billion cost projection already spent, some experts estimate that Riyadh may end up spending $2 trillion if it wants to complete this megaproject.Some Israeli officials reportedly believe the International Criminal Court is preparing to issue arrest warrants for high-ranking Israeli officials and Hamas operatives. While such warrants may not ever result in a trial, they may be seen as another moral rebuke of Israel.
Neither the court nor Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office have commented, but Bibi did warn last week against ICC interference that “would set a dangerous precedent that threatens the soldiers and officials of all democracies fighting savage terrorism …”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, meanwhile, is in Saudi Arabia on Monday and Tuesday for a World Economic Forum meeting, where he will discuss another cease-fire and hostage release deal for Gaza. The hope is to reach an agreement before Israel launches a ground operation in Rafah, which is expected soon unless Hamas accepts a deal.
While a cease-fire could stem hostilities, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan says only “a credible, irreversible path to a Palestinian state” will prevent a repeat of the current situation. This echoes recent Hamas statements, but a two-state solution is a non-starter for Netanyahu.
Discussion of the global race for AI dominance and influence often centers on the United States and China, with Europe forcing itself into the discussion with groundbreaking regulation and the occasional influential startup. But in the Persian Gulf, wealthy states are just as serious about getting in on this powerful — and lucrative — technology.
The New York Times reported last week that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia plans to create a $40 billion fund solely to invest in artificial intelligence. If this comes to fruition, it will make the Saudi government the world’s largest investor in AI. Next door, the United Arab Emirates has similar ambitions. Through Abu Dhabi’s Advanced Technology Research Council, the government poured millions into a powerful large language model called Falcon, only to release it open-source in September. Meanwhile, OpenAI chief Sam Altman has reportedly sought upwards of $7 trillion from funders including the UAE for a global chip startup.
Alexa Parks, an associate at the Eurasia Group, says both countries have been “relatively ahead of the curve” on AI with the UAE appointing the world’s first AI minister in 2017 and Saudi Arabia declaring in 2020 that it sought a domestic AI market worth $135 billion by 2030.
For Saudi Arabia, in particular, technology is “one of the few non-oil sectors that has successfully and consistently attracted significant foreign direct investment pledges,” Parks says. Both countries have pledged massive amounts to building data centers necessary for running powerful AI, plans that may put them in competition for regional dominance. The two countries seek global influence in the increasingly important AI market, but also financial returns on their investments.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are in some ways caught in the middle of a broader economic and technological war between the US and China over AI. The US has enacted strict export controls on AI and semiconductor technology with the aim of kneecapping China, especially their military ambitions with AI. G42, one of the UAE’s largest tech firms recently cut ties with China, which should position them to better engage with US-based AI companies in the future. “We haven't seen any Saudi firms be forced to make this choice yet, but it seems likely that it will happen eventually,” Parks says. “Until then, Riyadh will be content to pursue Chinese and Western tech ties and investments to build up its local tech sector as much as possible.”
On Friday, we saw some signals that some US-based AI companies won’t be so quick to take on the potential regulatory risks related to taking Gulf money: Anthropic is reportedly lining up new investors, but already ruled out Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, citing national security risks.
These countries’ deep-pockets and investments will make them unavoidable players in the artificial intelligence race, but in order to succeed they may need to choose sides in a broader conflict—though some major players will just flatly reject their money.
Are Western troops likely to end up on the ground in Ukraine?
If Western troops we mean NATO troops, I think it is very, very unlikely indeed. All this is a big flap in response to a question the French President, Emmanuel Macron, said it wasn't off the table, something needed to be thought about. The German chancellor almost immediately clapped Macron back. Didn't really need to do that. You already had the NATO secretary general, others saying more needs to be done to support the Ukrainians, more economic support, more military support, need to get the Americans to tee up for 2024. Most of NATO is all there. But of course, Macron, when he gets frustrated, he gets flustered. He likes to make a name. He likes to make headlines. Got a little trouble for that. It was a bit of an own goal. We've seen that before. But I don't think there's actually that much news being made.
How might Sweden's entry into NATO reshape defense policies and military partnerships in the region?
Well, let's keep in mind that unlike countries like Finland and Poland and the Baltics, which are front line NATO countries vis a vis Russia, Sweden is not. That's one of the reasons why their total defense spend was something like 1.2% of GDP. They will ramp that up significantly. They will reach 2% quickly and not that hard for them to do. They're small economy and very wealthy now that they are finally joining NATO. They also are very good in terms of military equipment. They have a significant defense industry and they export a lot of it. They work closely with NATO allies. So in that regard, they'll be quite significant. I think they matter. But, you know, again, it's a small country. It's really the symbolic fact that the NATO is expanding and continuing to expand because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Is Saudi Arabia poised to assist Zelensky in advancing his peace plan?
Well, the Saudis did host the most successful one of the most widely attended peace meetings for Ukraine so far. The Russians weren't there, but the Chinese were, as opposed to the meeting that just occurred in Switzerland a little over a month ago. They've also helped to facilitate transfers of POWs between the Russians and Ukrainians. That's very far from saying that we have diplomacy that's going to work, especially because Putin sees no reason. He thinks he's doing well right now and he can't wait to see what happens in the US elections in November. So I don't think there's much going on. But the Saudis certainly want to show that they want to be useful. And it's not just there. It's of course also in their own backyard. They get a lot of money, a lot of leadership. They are leading the GCC. It's a country everybody needs to pay attention to. Certainly very far from where they were a few years ago.
Saudi Arabia tries to reassure the Palestinians – but of what?
Saudi Arabia’s first envoy to the Palestinian Authority, Nayef al-Sudairi, is currently visiting the West Bank, where he’s meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Al-Sudairi is also expected to visit the Al-Aqsa Mosque, which Jews call the Temple Mount, which would mark the first visit of a Saudi official to East Jerusalem since Israel seized the territory in a 1967 war.
Why now? Al-Sudairi, who is also Saudi’s ambassador to Jordan, comes as Riyadh and Jerusalem are reportedly inching closer toward a diplomatic normalization deal – a huge development after Israel normalized ties with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco in recent years.
What do the Saudis want? While Riyadh, custodian of two of the holiest sites in Islam, is attempting to show that it remains committed to the Palestinian cause, it is more concerned about getting Washington’s assistance to build a civilian nuclear program and other security guarantees from Uncle Joe. The Biden administration says these concessions would be contingent on Saudi normalization with Israel.
The view from the Palestinian camp is that a thaw between Israel and Saudi is a betrayal of the Palestinians and a departure from the Saudis’ previous position that they wouldn’t embrace Israel until the Palestinian issue was settled. Riyadh, for its part, had previously said that this would have to include Israel's withdrawal from some areas, such as the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights.
For now, there’s every indication that Riyadh is moving full steam ahead: In a rare English-language interview last week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said he wants to see “a good life for the Palestinians,” but he stopped short of saying that Palestinian statehood was linked to ongoing normalization efforts with Israel.