We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
A member of a local electoral commission installs an electronic voting machine at a polling station during preparations for the presidential election, in Moscow, Russia, March 14, 2024.
What to watch in this weekend’s Russian presidential “election”
Breaking: GZERO Media’s “decision desk” is now ready to project that Vladimir V. Putin will be reelected president of Russia this weekend. We’re walking out on this limb because the Kremlin controls most media in Russia, any opposition candidate who might embarrass Putin is barred from running, and protests are not tolerated.
But there are a few factors worth watching. Will the government get the turnout it wants? Probably. As Eurasia Group’s Alex Brideau told us yesterday, “Government employees, soldiers, and people working for state-owned companies will be under pressure to vote and ensure others vote for Putin, too.” Even if turnout is low, Russian state media will likely tell us it was high.
We should also watch to see if protesters, including supporters of recently deceased political prisoner Alexei Navalny, ignore the risk of arrest, violence, or both to hit the streets of Russia’s largest cities.
The wildcard to watch is whether Ukraine has plans to disrupt the voting in whatever way possible. Recent drone attacks on Russian infrastructure have demonstrated the Ukrainian military’s long reach.
Yes, this carefully choreographed election will probably go off pretty much exactly as planned. But some inside Russia and beyond would like to use this occasion to make their own statements on Russia’s government and its Potemkin democracy.
FILE PHOTO: A Palestinian man cries next to bodies of her family members who died following Israeli strikes earlier, during their funeral in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip.
Hard Numbers: Gaza death toll’s bleak milestone, UK inflation’s two-year low, California’s holiday rains, Pro-peace candidate’s race against Putin, US-Venezuela prisoner swap
20,000: Over 20,0000 Palestinians have been killed since war broke out between Israel and Hamas in early October, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health. The death toll in the enclave has risen at a historic rate amid Israeli airstrikes, and both Israel and Hamas face allegations of war crimes.
3.9: UK inflation cooled to 3.9% in November – down from October’s 4.6% – to its lowest rate in over two years. Economists say the surprising fall in consumer price inflation could lead the Bank of England to slash interest rates in the first half of 2024, far earlier than expected.
20 million: El Niño is gifting Californians just what they want for the holidays: intense rainfall and possible flooding and mudslides. A flood watch was in place for over 20 million people in California on Wednesday, and the National Weather Service said heavy rainfall is expected across the southern part of the Golden State through Friday, warning of a “significant flash flood risk.”
300,000: Russian Yekaterina Duntsova, a former TV journalist who’s called for peace in Ukraine, on Wednesday submitted documents to formally register for the 2024 presidential election against Vladimir Putin. Duntsova faces a few obstacles: She needs 300,000 signatures in support of her candidacy from at least 40 regions, and, well … a fair democratic process.
10: The US and Venezuela swapped prisoners on Wednesday. The South American country released 10 imprisoned Americans and extradited an ex-military contractor referred to as “Fat Leonard” – who was the heart of a major US Navy corruption scandal – in exchange for Alex Saab, a close ally of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.