We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley reacts as her daughter Rena and Rena's husband Joshua stand next to her, at her watch party during the South Carolina Republican presidential primary election in Charleston, South Carolina, U.S. February 24, 2024.
Nikki Haley hangs tough
Despite being trounced by Donald Trump in her home state of South Carolina, former governor Nikki Haleyremains in the race to lead the GOP.
Positioning herself as a champion for traditional conservative principles, fiscal responsibility, and democracy, Haley said she would not quit “as a matter of principle”. In an impassioned press conference, she vowed to give Republican supporters "a real choice, not a Soviet-style election with only one candidate,” and cited polls that show her doing better than Trump against Biden.
What else could be keeping her in the race?
At 52, Haley’s is young enough to have her eye on a potential run in 2028, so building more name recognition can’t hurt (though earning a reputation for losing can’t help). Her campaign also has cash in reserve, including a $2 million boost after Trump attacked her husband’s military service. That said, Haley suffered a big setback Sunday when the Koch brothers -- major GOP donors -- announced they were halting funding for her campaign to focus on House and Senate races.
With all that in mind, remember Trump now owes the good people of New York nearly half a billion dollars for defrauding lenders.
Speaking of Trump’s legal troubles, even if Haley gets more shellackings on Super Tuesday, March 5, continuing to pick up a few delegates here and there could help her on the outside chance the Supreme Court deems Trump ineligible to run. Should Haley have the second largest number of delegates at the GOP convention, she would have a good argument for taking the torch.
Former US President Donald Trump speaks as he holds a campaign rally in Conway, South Carolina, February 10, 2024.
Trump: I would encourage Russia to attack 'delinquent' NATO allies
Speaking at a South Carolina rally on Saturday, Donald Trumpsaid he would "encourage" Russia to attack NATO members that don’t meet their financial obligations. “No I would not protect you, in fact I would encourage them to do whatever they want,” the former president and likely GOP 2024 nominee thundered. “You gotta pay."
Reaction was swift. “Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in a statement. EU Council President Charles Michel and the German foreign ministry echoed this sentiment, while White House spokesperson Andrew Bates branded Trump's comments as "appalling and unhinged.”
Who would make Trump’s list? According to data released in July 2023, only 11 of 30 NATO countries spent at least 2% of their GDP on defense, including the US, the UK, Poland, Greece, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Hungary and new member Finland. The “delinquents” list is considerably longer and includes Croatia, France, Bulgaria, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Norway, and Canada – the country with the longest land border with the United States.
South Carolina Republican state senator Penry Gustafson debates a six week abortion ban at the state legislature
South Carolina's six-week abortion ban
Victims of rape or incest will be able to access abortion care for up to 12 weeks gestation, according to the bill, which also has exceptions for if the mother’s life is in danger or if there are fetal abnormalities.
Opponents have vowed to challenge the bill in court, but it’s unclear how that might pan out. Consider that in 2021, the state legislature passed a similar measure that was struck down by the state Supreme Court, which claimed that curtailing abortion access violates women’s right to privacy. That has allowed abortion to remain legal in the state for up to 22 weeks, making South Carolina a haven for southern women seeking the procedure.
The bill would have passed earlier were it not for six bipartisan women lawmakers in the Senate – three Republicans, two Democrats, and one independent – who used a legislative procedure known as a filibuster to stall the bill’s passage.
As the presidential race gets underway, the Palmetto State will serve as a test case for candidates running for president. In particular, former Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott, both South Carolinians who are running for the GOP nomination, will be forced to respond. Coming out too strong against abortion access won’t land well with an electorate that overwhelmingly backs Roe v. Wade – as proven by the 2022 midterm results. However, dissing the bill will surely be used as a cudgel by Donald Trump, and others, in a Republican primary.
The suspected Chinese spy balloon drifts to the ocean after being shot down off the coast in Surfside Beach, South Carolina.
What We're Watching: US-China balloon fallout, Iranian "amnesty"
As US shoots down Chinese spy balloon, China cries foul
If we'd told you a week ago that the recent US-China thaw would be upended by X, you'd have probably guessed X had something to do with Taiwan, US semiconductor export controls, or perhaps China's covert profiteering from Russia's war in Ukraine. Nope. It was all over ... a balloon.
On Sunday, Beijing issued a strongly worded statement a day after US fighter jets shot down a Chinese spy balloon that entered American airspace last week. President Joe Biden waited until the balloon was over water just off the South Carolina coast to authorize the operation – officially to avoid putting US civilians and infrastructure at risk and perhaps to respond to pressure from Republicans who'd chided him for not shooting it down earlier.
The discovery of the snoop balloon made US Secretary of State Antony Blinken cancel his weekend trip to Beijing, which would have been the first by a top US diplomat in five years. And Biden’s decision to shoot it down throws a wrench into a US-China rapprochement that had been in the works since Biden and Xi Jinping had a nicer-than-expected chat at the G-20 summit in Bali last November. While certainly weird, this doesn't seem like a crisis that can't be overcome.
Why? For one thing, it's not in China's interest to escalate further over such a bizarre incident, which was, if we believe Beijing’s official explanation, accidental as the balloon veered off course due to strong winds. For another, if Xi was testing the US president to see how he’d respond, now he knows.
Still, the aerial drama does raise the stakes for future misunderstandings, miscalculations, and overreactions coming from both sides. As China expert Michael Hirson explains in this Twitter thread, it’s “simultaneously amusing and worrying because that’s the stage of the US-China relationship we’ve entered: absurd and also dangerous. Dr. Strangelove isn't here yet, but he's knocking."