An Election Wave Rolls In

Over the next 11 weeks, there will be eight important elections globally covering populations of more than 2.2 billion people.

Here's what you need to know:


Thailand – A Restoration of (Limited) Democracy (March 24)

This will be the first national vote since the military seized power in 2014, but it isn't quite an open election. Some 500 representatives to the lower house will be directly elected. But the military will appoint all 250 members of parliament's upper house, and the upper and lower houses together will elect the new prime minister. That ensures the military will have a big say in the outcome.

Ukraine – The Joker's Wild (March 31, with a likely second round on April 21)

Even before President Petro Poroshenko found himself contending with fresh corruption accusations against some of his associates, he was already facing a tough reelection challenge from former prime minister Yuliya Tymoshenko and comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who plays a fictional Ukrainian president on TV. For now, Zelenskiy, the wildcard in this deck, leads in the polls. Vladimir Putin will be watching very, very, very closely.

Turkey: Erdogan in Decline? (March 31)

Things haven't been going President Erdogan's way. Turkey is in recession, relations with Washington and other NATO allies are rocky, and his adventures in Syria haven't gone well. Fears for his domestic political strength led him to invite an ultranationalist party to join his Justice and Development Party in an informal alliance ahead of elections later this month. These are local races, but his party could lose control of government in both Istanbul and Ankara. Given that nearly three-quarters of Turkey's citizens now live in cities, that would be a sure sign of trouble for Turkey's strongman.

Israel: Bibi's Toughest Test (April 9)

Benjamin Netanyahu is one win away from surpassing founding father David Ben-Gurion as Israel's longest-serving prime minister. But with corruption indictments hanging over his head and a unified opposition led by his former army chief of staff, Benny Gantz, Netanyahu will face an exceptionally tough test. His ally and friend Donald Trump will help burnish his image with an invitation to the White House in the days before the vote.

Indonesia: The Outlier Election (April 17)

A popular incumbent president is cruising toward easy re-election. When was the last time we could write that about any major country in the world? But Indonesia, the world's largest predominantly Muslim country, is a relative success story, and President Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi) is widely expected to coast past former Army General Prabowo Subianto next month. Jokowi's personal popularity, modest progress on health, education, and infrastructure reforms, and his decision to blunt attacks by religious conservatives by choosing an Islamist vice presidential running mate should bring him first across the finish line.

Spain: Redrawing the Map (April 28)

Economic growth is up, and unemployment is down. But Catalan separatist pressures continue, the number of migrants entering Spain has risen, and a polling surge for the nationalist, populist, Euroskeptic Vox Party has shifted the ground underneath Spanish politics. The risk here is of further political fragmentation in a country that's recovered relatively well from its debt crisis and, until recently, avoided the populism roiling politics elsewhere in the EU.

India: The Modi Majority at Risk (April 11 – May 19)

Across the world's most diverse country, some 900 million people are eligible to vote in this seven-phase parliamentary election over 39 days. Some voters will treat this contest as a referendum on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party. Others will be influenced more by local issues. No one in India can compete with Modi's political stature, but India's strong growth rates have benefitted some far more than others. The question: Can the BJP win another majority, or will it need partners to govern?

European Parliament: Can Populists Work Together? (May 23-26)

Populists within Italy's Lega, Poland's PiS, France's Rassemblement National, the Netherlands' Freedom Party, and Austria's Freedom Party are hoping to up their seat count in the European Parliament to challenge mainstream center-right and center-left alliances on immigration, trade, EU rules, and other issues. But can they work together? There are big differences among them on how to share the burdens of hosting migrants and policy toward Russia, for example.

Wrecking the global economy's hopes for a relaxing late-August Friday, China and the US have taken fresh shots at each other in their deepening trade war.

First, China announced new tariffs on US goods in response to US levies on China's exports that are set to take effect next month.

Trump responded with a vintage tweet storm, lashing out at China and demanding that US firms stop doing business there. The Dow plunged as markets waited for the next shoe to drop. And drop it did: later in the day Trump announced higher tariffs on nearly everything that China exports to the United States.

Why now? Bear in mind, all of this comes right as Trump is leaving for this weekend's G7 summit in France. That gathering already promised to be a testy one – but with the global economy slowing, the impact of Trump's increasingly nasty trade war with China will add fresh tensions to the occasion.

So where are we in the trade war now? Here is an updated list of what measures each side has imposed to date, and what's next. Both sides have a lot at stake, but from the looks of it, the list isn't going to get shorter any time soon.

When Donald Trump first started talking about buying Greenland last week, we figured it was a weird story with less legs than a Harp seal.

Signal readers, we were wrong. President Trump was so serious about purchasing the autonomous Danish territory that this week he abruptly cancelled a trip to Denmark after the country's prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, labelled the idea "absurd."

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The Amazon in flames – More than 70,000 forest fires are burning in Brazil right now, most of them in the Amazon. That's up 84% over the same period last year, and it's the highest number on record. This is the dry season when farmers burn certain amounts of forest legally to clear farmland. But critics say Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro's efforts to loosen conservation rules have encouraged farmers, loggers, and miners to set more fires, many of them illegally. Bolsonaro – a science skeptic who recently fired the head of the agency that tracks deforestation – says, without proof, that NGOs are setting the fires to embarrass his government. Meanwhile, the EU is holding up a major trade deal with Brazil unless Bolsonaro commits to higher environmental protection standards, including those that affect the Amazon.

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Over the past fifty years, the Amazon rainforest has shrunk by an area equal to the size of Turkey. In the 1960s and 1970s, the Brazilian government supported settlement of the sparsely populated region for security reasons. Since then, huge swaths of the forest -- which is crucial for limiting the world's greenhouse gasses -- have been cleared for farmland used to feed Brazil's population and support its massive agricultural exports. Greater awareness of the environmental impacts in the 1990s produced tighter conservation regulations, though plenty of illegal clearing continues. In recent years, the annual deforestation rate has begun to rise again, and Brazil's new president Jair Bolsonaro has pledged to weaken regulations further in order to support businesses.