The stunning US removal of Nicolás Maduro opens up a number of questions. Here are several to watch in the coming days and weeks. If there are others that you have, let us know here.
How will Venezuelans react? Maduro was a deeply unpopular leader in Venezuela. Under his rule, millions fled the once-wealthy country amid twin political and humanitarian crises caused by the regime’s corruption and economic mismanagement, political repression, and the chokehold of US sanctions. His July 2024 re-election was widely viewed as fraudulent. His removal itself will be greeted with cathartic elation by many Venezuelans in the country and abroad, but much will depend on what comes next. Fresh – and free – elections will be a major expectation.
So, who takes power now? Trump said on Saturday morning that the US will “run” Venezuela via an unspecified “group,” while also saying that Maduro’s vice president Delcy Rodriguez had been sworn in. The Venezuelan opposition, led by María Corina Machado, has demanded that the apparent winner of the July 2024 election, Edmundo González, be put in power “immediately” but Trump appeared to cut that off during his remarks, saying she lacks political support.
Key questions for how Trump “runs” Venezuela now include: who controls the military and to whom are they loyal? The ease with which the US deposed Maduro suggests at least some complicity from within the regime itself – and Washington’s local helpers will expect to be rewarded.
The streets, however, may not have patience for footdragging on fresh elections or remnants of the Maduro regime staying in power. Tensions between US objectives, expectations of the regime remnants, and popular hopes could flare quickly and unpredictably.
What will happen to Venezuela’s oil? Trump has been explicit in his remarks: he wants the country’s oil. Until now, Chevron, a US oil company which operates in Venezuela under a special license, has enjoyed limited exemptions from US sanctions. Regime change opens up vast new resources for exploration and production by US or US-allied companies, and Trump suggested military deployments are possible to secure those resources. When global oil markets open again on Monday watch for any price response in oil markets. (For insight on oil traders’ general lack of interest in geopolitics recently, see our recent piece here.)
Will Trump go beyond Venezuela? The Trump administration has shown it’s willing to carry out acts of war, including regime change, in countries perceived to be harboring drug cartels or other criminal groups, as defined by Washington. Trump on Saturday morning said again that Mexico, where he has threatened to target drug groups, is “run by drug cartels.” He has also threatened and sanctioned the leftwing president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, in part over the government’s failure to stop coca production. However, in contrast to the far-left regime of Venezuela– a bete noir for successive Democratic and Republican US administrations – Mexico and Colombia are close allies of the US, significantly raising the stakes of any US action.
Is there a Cuban connection? Cuba has depended for decades on cheap Venezuelan oil. A cut in aid under a new Venezuelan administration could plunge Cuba into a serious crisis. Removal of the Castro regime has long been a US objective – and one especially dear to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, himself the son of Cuban immigrants, who is seen as a key architect of the Venezuela policy.
How will Venezuela’s allies respond? China, Russia – and to a lesser extent Iran – have supplied Venezuela with financial, economic, and military aid in recent years. None of the three countries was evidently in a position to stop this US operation, but all will be keen to exert some influence over whatever comes next. China and Russia are the most capable of throwing a spanner into the works, though it remains to be seen whether they would do so amid delicate negotiations with the US on other issues (trade and technology in China’s case, and the Ukraine war in Russia’s.)
How will this play in the United States? Recent polls showed that only a minority of Americans (22%) supported US-backed regime change in Venezuela, while a majority in both parties opposed it. However, the speed and success of the operation, and the apparent lack of any US casualties, may blunt any popular backlash against the move. But once Maduro’s trial gets under way, expect significant political polarization within the US over the legal basis – both domestically and internationally – of what amounts to a unilateral act of war and regime change against a foreign government.
