The Confidence Game

The Confidence Game

If you own stocks, anywhere in the world, there’s a good chance that the markets’ wild ride this week upset your stomach. But, worried as you were, you probably felt some confidence that the US and European economies are relatively stable, that governments in those places know what they’re doing and are relatively transparent about it, and that markets would recover.


Now consider a day in the (not-so-distant) future when a market meltdown begins not on Wall Street but in China. Imagine further that when that day comes, China is the largest economy on earth (by some measures, it already is). Will you be as confident in China’s leadership and markets are you are in the US and Europe’s?

A few thoughts:

1. In China, all the big political and economic decisions are made behind closed doors by seven men — the Politburo Standing Committee. No one alive today has ever lived in a world where the largest economy on earth was governed in such secrecy.

2. Last week’s stock market rollercoaster started in part because of expectations that the US Federal Reserve will soon raise interest rates to keep the economy from overheating. Investors don’t like higher interest rates, but they know how the Fed works and what it wants to achieve. The Fed has a responsibility to explain its decisions. Imagine the uncertainty when investors are instead hanging on the words of China’s central bank, where decisions must be approved by politicians who feel no need to explain their actions.

3. Starting this year, Chinese stocks are included in the MSCI EM index, one of the largest indices of stocks from “emerging market” economies. Because many American pension funds hold the MSCI EM Index, they — and maybe you — now have direct exposure to China’s domestic stock market for the first time, even if you’re not aware of it.

4. Today, China’s economy appears strong, but many analysts say economic statistics produced in that country are more vulnerable to political manipulation, particularly at the local level, than stats from countries like the US, Germany, or Japan. In fact, several Chinese provincial governments admitted recently that they faked their GDP data for 2016. Investors shrugged off this news because they’re confident in smooth sailing for China’s economy. But what happens when the waters get choppy and investors get queasy?

5. Investors know that, in a crisis, China’s leaders will worry about political stability first and the credibility of state-generated information a distant second. So even if China produces accurate info, will panicky investors believe it? How long will it take for confidence to be restored?

Confidence is the fuel that powers economies forward — at the local, national, and global levels. Today, China and its economic engine inspire confidence. That may no longer be true on the day when real trouble shakes an economy governed by secretive leaders who care more about political survival than the credibility of the information they share with the world.

That day is coming.

We pay little attention to the waves of the sea, yet they are the greatest unused source of renewable energy in the world. Meet ISWEC and Power Buoy, two interesting new technologies used to harness this energy. Learn more about the extraordinary power of waves in this episode of Eni's Energy Shot series, where we investigate interesting facts and trends about energy.

Ukraine is once again in a tough spot.

More Show less

Listen: Soumya Swaminathan calls for a massive increase in the global vaccine supply in order to prevent the rise of more dangerous and vaccine-evading super-variants, in a wide-ranging interview with Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World podcast. Dr. Swaminathan, Chief Scientist at the World Health Organization, argues that vaccine nationalism, where countries prioritize their own citizens ahead of the rest of the world, will only prolong the pandemic because a virus does not stop at any national border. She also weighs in on a controversial new WHO report investigating the origins of COVID-19 and discusses when she thinks the world's children should get vaccinated. In addition, she suggests we may see alternative vaccine forms, like nasal sprays, sooner than we think.

Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

India, the world's third largest emitter of carbon dioxide, is one of the countries worst affected by climate change. But it takes issue with those now asking it to clean up its act. Why, the Indians ask, should we give up our right to get rich by burning fossil fuels like you developed economies have done for generations?

That's precisely the message that India's energy minister had for the US and other wealthy nations at a recent Zoom summit after they pressured Delhi to set a future deadline for net zero emissions. For India, he explained, such targets are "pie in the sky" aspirations that do little to address the climate crisis the country faces right now.

More Show less

The Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics are nearly a year away, but discussion of a potential boycott is already stoking tensions on both sides of the US-China relationship. Officials in Washington and other Western capitals are coming under mounting pressure from activists to respond to human rights abuses in China. An increasingly assertive Beijing, meanwhile, vigorously rejects any foreign criticism of what it regards as internal issues.

The last time the US boycotted an Olympics was in 1980, when it withdrew from the Summer Olympics in Moscow to protest the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan. Four years later, the Soviet Union repaid in kind by skipping the Games in Los Angeles. Would the US and its allies do something like that again? And how might China respond? Eurasia Group analysts Neil Thomas and Allison Sherlock explain the drivers of the boycott movement and its possible fallout.

More Show less

In two weeks, US President Joe Biden will be hosting an online "climate summit" to mark Earth Day. He'll ask China and India to sign up to America's ambitious new plan to slow down climate change. Will they go for it? China is the world's largest polluter, but Beijing is rolling out solar and wind power as fast as it's burning coal. India, meanwhile, is loathe to pick up the slack for rich countries that polluted their way to wealth and now want everyone else to agree to emissions cuts. No matter what happens, any successful plan to reduce global emissions will require buy-in from these three nations which, along with the European Union, account for almost 60 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions nowadays. Here's a look at emissions by the world's top polluters compared to everyone else over the last two decades.

Two big Andean elections: This Sunday, Ecuadorians go to the polls for the second time this year in a close presidential runoff, while Peruvians will vote in the first round of their own presidential election. In Ecuador, the matchup is between the leftwing-populist frontrunner Andrés Arauz, who has pledged to blow up the country's IMF agreements and boost national oil production, and Guillermo Lasso, a pro-business candidate who is seen as the choice of continuity with the current market-friendly government. Voter abstention is likely to be high, and the final result could very well be close and contested in a polarized country that was struggling with massive social unrest even before the pandemic struck. Meanwhile in Peru — which recently went through three presidents in the space of a week — the candidate field is hugely fragmented. Those with a decent shot to make it to the second round include "change" candidates like the leftist former lawmakers Yohny Lescano and Verónica Mendoza, as well as the prominent neoliberal economist Hernando De Soto, who has recently risen in the polls. Former soccer star George Forsyth is also in the mix, as is Keiko Fujimori, daughter of authoritarian former president Alberto Fujimori. Both of this Sunday's elections will serve as a kind of bellwether for the political mood in a region that has been devastated by the public health and economic impact of the pandemic.

More Show less

Nasal sprays, oral vaccines, and other new types of COVID-19 vaccines may be ready soon, according to Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, Chief Scientist at the World Health Organization. She previews some of these needle-less vaccines and notes that the possibility of being able to store vaccines at room temperature could be a game-changer for vaccinating poorer nations. The advantage of nasal sprays, she explains, is that they "would generate local mucosal immunity in addition to systemic immunity." Dr. Swaminathan's conversation with Ian Bremmer is featured on the latest episode of GZERO World, airing on US public television stations starting this Friday, April 9. Check local listings.

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter, Signal

The GZERO World Podcast with Ian Bremmer. Listen now.

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal