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The Graphic Truth: Cross-border economic anxiety
We wish we had better news, but the economic outlook from Tulsa to Toronto and Quebec to Los Angeles is nothing but bleak, according to an exclusive GZERO/MARU poll.
“There really isn’t much good news here on either side of the border,” says Maru Executive VP John Wright. “Increased interest rates combined with slow-to-fall inflation on essentials like groceries have put consumer-citizens in a dark cloud with not really much of a silver lining.”
The job market remains strong, any talk of the R-word (recession) is usually proceeded with a “mild.” But Americans and Canadians are feeling the squeeze. Both PM Justin Trudeau and US President Joe Biden are facing reelection, and they know that their fates are tied to how their economies perform.
At the moment, “the economy doesn’t favor either of the incumbent leaders,” Wright says. “When that changes, so will the likely fortunes for all.”
We look at Maru Public Opinion polling data on Canadian and American views about the economy and their ability to make ends meet.The Graphic Truth: No need to liberate Canada
Tucker Carlson says it’s time to invade Canada because the Canucks are being oppressed by an authoritarian government that won’t let them run amok with guns (and unvaccinated). But a bit of digging by Maru Public Opinion shows that the vast majority of Canadians are not feeling oppressed. Sure, some would prefer looser gun laws, but the majority are not screaming about tyranny or planning a revolution. We look at their views on various freedoms and compare the percentage of each population, American and Canadian, that believes relations between the two countries have gotten worse.
GZERO North is a weekly newsletter that gives you an insider’s guide to the very latest political, economic, and cultural news shaping US-Canadian relations. Subscribe today.
What Americans and Canadians agree — and disagree — on
Americans like to think: "Canadians are just like us." But many Canadians don't feel the same way about Americans.
Still, Americans and Canadians do mostly agree on a lot of things, as we know from recently polling by Maru Public Opinion for GZERO North.
What do Americans and Canadians find the most and least common ground on? Maru executive VP John Wright digs into the data from the survey in a conversation with GZERO's Tony Maciulis at a US-Canada Summit in Toronto.
For more, sign up for GZERO North, the new weekly newsletter that gives you an insider’s guide to the world’s most important and under-covered trading relationship, US and Canada.
Hordes of shoppers throng the Macy's Herald Square flagship store in New York on Black Friday.
Exclusive polling data: Is inflation turning Americans into Grinches?
We’re excited to unveil a new exclusive polling partnership with the survey firm Maru Public Opinion. First up: How much are Americans reaching for their wallets this holiday season?
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'Tis the season for gingerbread, gelt, and glee. But after a year of unwinding from pandemic-related supply chain issues amid four-decade-high inflation and a war in Ukraine, just how festive are we feeling with our pocketbooks?
After all, much of the developed world is hip-deep in inflation, which is making prices soar for everything from bread to meat to gas. The IMF says that global inflation will hit a whopping 8.8% this year.
In the US, the Federal Reserve has been tackling inflation head-on by hiking interest rates at the quickest pace since the early Reagan years, with another bump expected next week. But making it harder to borrow money — combined with higher prices across the board — means that many Americans will think twice about splurging over the holidays.
“This was the first year that I can remember not participating in Black Friday or Cyber Monday in years!” says Patrick Howard, a father of two from Willis, Texas. “The price increases on just about all products have been really discouraging,” And he’s far from alone.
US consumer spending this holiday season will be considerably lower than last year, according to an exclusive new GZERO/Maru Public Opinion poll. Some 27% of Americans surveyed said they plan to spend less this year — with nearly half of them blaming inflation.
The average American intends to spend $252.60 less this year on holiday shopping compared to 2021. But not everyone’s cutting back: In fact, the poll shows that those tightening their belts tend to be middle-aged, with lower incomes, and especially women.
“If retailers are looking for an audience intent on spending more this holiday season, they’ll be best to target the younger Americans, particularly those with higher income, who will likely be leading those who are lining up to pay,” says John Wright, executive VP of Maru Public Opinion. “But this will not likely come in the form of significant foot traffic as two-thirds of Americans say their preference will be an online click-and-deliver experience this year.”
Still, there’s a lot left to play for. Even after Cyber Monday, most US consumers still have 71.9% of their gift-giving budgets in their pockets.
“The average American shopper still has a significant portion of their gift-giving list to get through, so even on the heels of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, all will be looking for bargains given this economic climate,” Wright adds.
As we slide into 2023, economists will be looking closely at December holiday spending to help measure the health of the US economy. Much of what they’ll see depends on whether and how Americans spend the bulk of that remaining budget.
GZERO & Maru Group are teaming up to bring you exclusive insights on American views related to the political economy. We will tell you more about this exciting new partnership next week. Stay tuned.