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Middle East
Supporters and armed members of the Fatah movement protest against the Palestinian Hamas government during a rally in Jabalya camp September 22, 2006.
With the US still trying, in vain, to negotiate a cease-fire in Gaza, China stepped into the fray with some olive branches of its own this week, hosting Fatah and Hamas, the rival Palestinian factions, for reconciliation talks in Beijing.
The backdrop: The secular nationalists of Fatah, who recognize Israel, and the Islamists of Hamas, who don’t, have long vied for control of the Palestinian movement. After Hamas won the 2006 elections, a brief civil war left Hamas in control of Gaza and Fatah running the West Bank.
What’s China’s angle? Beijing, already a global economic power, wants to cut a larger figure in diplomacy, cultivating an image as a more honest broker than the US, with closer ties to the so-called “Global South.” Last year, for example, Beijing delivered a détente between bitter enemies Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Not so fast. China is looking to foster intra-Palestinian accords here, not a broader peace deal. And it may be that Beijing is, for now, perfectly happy to see the US tied down by the Gaza war anyway.
But by creating conditions for a smaller resolution within Palestine, Beijing could be eyeing a larger role down the road.
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will the international community respond to an Israeli invasion of Rafah?
Very, very badly. You see that the Israeli prime minister and War Cabinet continues to say that no matter what happens with the hostages and a potential deal, and everyone's trying to get one done at the last minute, that the intention is still very much to fight on the ground there. I don't think that's a bluff. And especially because it's supported by the entire Israeli political spectrum and the population, they believe that you've got to take out Hamas. And beyond that, there's also the concern about Hezbollah. So I think the international response is going to be very negative. It is certainly going to push back the possibility of any Saudi normalization, and it's going to lead to a lot more demonstrations and hostility against Israel in the United States and in Europe.
How would a Trump presidency be different from his first term?
I think the biggest issue, is that, Trump is going to be focused much more on ending, all of these cases against him, which he sees as completely unjust and that the political enemies, need to be responded to. And that means a top priority of ensuring that the leadership of the Department of Justice, the FBI, probably the IRS, are political appointees and loyalists to him. This was not a priority in the first administration. There's no Bill Barr coming back as attorney general. And I think the potential of that, to both create a new McCarthyism in the United States and also to create a structural advantage for the incumbent party in being able to ensure election outcomes much more strongly than you would in a normal, representative democracy, that is significantly at risk in that environment. That'll change the way we think about rule of law in the United States. That's probably the biggest difference.
Are growing US campus protests a sign of a chaotic election in November?
I wouldn't say that yet. We're still talking about relatively small numbers of students, and after graduations are over, I think the student protests are over. But there's no question this does reflect a significant anger among young people in the country. A lot of the people that are involved in the takeovers of buildings, for example, and the tussling with police, are not the students themselves, but people coming in, political entrepreneurs, if I can call them that, from outside. I am deeply concerned about what happens with the upcoming Democratic convention in Chicago. I think that could be very violent with lots of demonstrations. Certainly I don't see the war in Gaza over any time soon. And as a consequence of that, I think that, this is going to be a big problem and very, very challenging, as we think about the most dysfunctional and polarized US election since the 19th century, since the period of reconstruction.
An Israeli soldier looks on from a vehicle near the Israel-Gaza border, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Israel, April 30, 2024.
Despite offering a watered-down hostage deal proposal to Hamas, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday said an invasion of Rafah — the southern Gaza city where over a million Palestinians are sheltering — would move forward “with or without” a cease-fire.
Netanyahu's statement is likely meant to placate far-right members of his coalition government amid news of progress in truce negotiations. Hardliners want Israel to invade Rafah and have threatened to collapse the government if they don’t get their way.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in the region for cease-fire talks, which come amid an ongoing push by the Biden administration for Saudi Arabia to normalize ties with Israel — a deal that would be a big diplomatic win for the White House during an election year. In exchange, Riyadh wants increased security cooperation with the US and help setting up a civilian nuclear program.
Still, Riyadh is unlikely to agree without commitments from Israel to work toward a pathway for Palestinian statehood, which Netanyahu opposes.
Where things stand. There are significant obstacles to a new cease-fire and Israeli-Saudi normalization. As Hamas mulls its response to Israel’s latest proposal, Blinken is set to meet with Bibi on Wednesday — and is expected to press him on increasing the flow of aid into Gaza.
David Sanger, Pulitzer prize-winning New York Times journalist and author of "New Cold Wars," discusses the evolving relationship between China and Russia, highlighting its asymmetry and significance in today's geopolitical landscape. He points out how much the tables have turned. During the Cold War of the 20th Century, the Soviet Union was the dominant power when it came to its relationship with China. Decades later, it's clear that China holds the upper hand. "China holds more cards than the Russians do," Sanger tells Ian Bremmer. Not only that, Russia's Vladimir Putin needs China's Xi Jinping by his side in order to prevail in his war with Ukraine. "He [Putin] needs that Chinese technology desperately... He does not have a choice except to deal with the Chinese on Chinese terms right now."
And what does that mean for China's interests when it comes to the United States? "If you're Xi," Sanger says, "the two best things that can happen to you is that the US is tied up in Ukraine or ripping itself apart about the aid and consumed again in the Middle East." And at least in that respect, Xi seems to be getting everything he wants.
Watch Ian Bremmer's full interview with David Sanger on GZERO World - Are we on the brink of a new cold war?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
- The biggest threats to US national security, foreign and domestic ›
- The next era of global superpower competition: a conversation with the New York Times' David Sanger ›
- The limits of a China-Russia partnership ›
- Will China end Russia’s war? ›
- Xi’s “peace” plan for Ukraine: China “wins” ›
- Russia & China vs “the West” ›
People protest in support of Palestinians in Gaza, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Amman, Jordan, April 5, 2024.
Pro-Palestinian protests on US college campuses have dominated headlines recently, but the Gaza war has also catalyzed demonstrations in the surrounding region itself — and with the memory of the Arab Spring still fresh on their minds, leaders are responding with repressive tactics.
The Egyptian government has not taken kindly to pro-Palestinian protests that have also aimed at Cairo’s diplomatic ties with Israel. In early April, Egyptian authorities arrested at least 10 people at a protest where demonstrators accused Cairo of fueling the war in Gaza and called for the government to expel the Israeli ambassador.
Authorities in Morocco and Jordan have also arrested and prosecuted people who’ve criticized their government’s ties to Israel. Jordanian authorities have reportedly arrested roughly 1,500 over such demonstrations since October.
The Palestinian cause has been a rallying cry in the Arab world for decades. And without a cease-fire in Gaza, the war seems poised to continue stoking public outrage across the region.
That said, a Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on Monday for further truce talks facilitated by international negotiators. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday urged the militant group to accept an “extraordinarily generous” new proposal from Israel that lowered the number of hostages it wants to see released for a phased cease-fire to begin.
People attend a protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government and to call for the release of hostages kidnapped in the deadly October 7 attack on Israel by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, April 27, 2024.
Some Israeli officials reportedly believe the International Criminal Court is preparing to issuearrest warrants for high-ranking Israeli officials and Hamas operatives. While such warrants may not ever result in a trial, they may be seen as another moral rebuke of Israel.
Neither the court nor Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office have commented, but Bibi did warn last week against ICC interference that “would set a dangerous precedent that threatens the soldiers and officials of all democracies fighting savage terrorism …”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, meanwhile, is in Saudi Arabia on Monday and Tuesday for a World Economic Forum meeting, where he will discuss another cease-fire and hostage release deal for Gaza. The hope is to reach an agreement before Israel launches a ground operation in Rafah, which is expected soon unless Hamas accepts a deal.
While a cease-fire could stem hostilities, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan says only “a credible, irreversible path to a Palestinian state” will prevent a repeat of the current situation. This echoes recent Hamas statements, but a two-state solution is a non-starter for Netanyahu.
U.S. President Joe Biden raises a toast during the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner in Washington, U.S., April 27, 2024.
President Joe Bidentook shots at rival Donald Trump at the annual White House Correspondents Dinner in Washington, DC, Saturday night, while pro-Palestinian protesters voiced their anger outside.
Demonstrators accused attendees of supporting Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war and decried the killing of 97 journalists in Gaza, including 92 Palestinians. “Every single person in there is choosing to stay on the side of history that sides with profit over freedom,”said Mimi Ziad, a protest organizer from the Palestinian Youth Movement.
Those views have been gaining traction on campuses across the US, and now, Canada.Protesters at McGill University in Montreal set up an encampment and are demanding that the school divest from funds and companies associated with Israel. The move represents an escalation of the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions movement inspired by student 1980s protests targeting apartheid that saw 150 schools divest from South Africa.
Will that happen with Israel? On Friday, Portland State University* President Ann Cudd said her school would pause receiving philanthropic gifts from Boeing, which provides equipment to the Israel Defense Forces, until students and faculty hold a debate in May.Other schools, including Harvard, Columbia, and the University of California, have thus far rejected calls for divestment.
* Correction: This article originally listed the University of Portland, rather than Portland State University.
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