Two years ago, Donald Trump selected a first-term Ohio senator to be his running mate.
“I promise you this: I will be a vice president who never forgets where he came from,” JD Vance said to the crowd at the Republican National Convention in July 2024. Months later, he would be the second-in-command, and widely seen as the heir apparent to the Make America Great Again-version of the Republican Party.
Vance’s ascent to the pinnacle of power would be enough to give anyone vertigo. Born in the small, industrial town of Middletown, Ohio, and raised by a mother who struggled with alcoholism, Vance made his way through the Marines, Ohio State University, and Yale Law School. He then worked as a venture capitalist before becoming a New York Times bestselling author for his memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy.” In 2022, he jumped into politics, promoting tariffs to protect US manufacturing and advocating against foreign intervention.
Yet Vance has been sliding downhill since entering the White House.
“Vance was very much ‘of the moment’ in 2024,” Republican strategist Liz Mair told GZERO. “But his shtick isn’t evolving.”
The first setback was in February 2025, when Vance delivered a scathing attack on Europe during his speech at the Munich Security Conference, drawing visible anger from European leaders in attendance. Then the Iran conflict began, putting the Veep in the unenviable position of defending an unpopular war – one that wasn’t of his choosing. In April there was another embarrassment: Vance traveled all the way to Hungary to campaign for then-Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, only to watch Péter Magyar resoundingly defeat him the following week.
There have also been some softer stumbles. Vance fumbled his alma mater’s football championship trophy while they were visiting the White House in 2025. He even prompted an online backlash when he awkwardly tapped his wife’s knee during a podcast recording. Then, while promoting his new book over the last month, he had to defend the president on issues like the 2020 election and inflation, without necessarily convincing his interviewers.
“It’s impossible to be Donald Trump’s VP and not be forced into a series of stumbles,” GOP strategist Jason Cabel Roe told GZERO.
Now, Trump is openly questioning whether Vance should be his successor, or whether Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be a better option. Even more concerning is that Rubio is swiftly catching up with the VP in polls of early-voting states on the Republican nominating calendar. In New Hampshire, Vance led Rubio by just seven points in the most recent Saint Anselm College poll – he was 49 points ahead in last August’s survey. Then on Wednesday, Axios reported that GOP megadonor Ken Griffin would back Rubio over Vance in 2028.
David Hagen, a local GOP chairperson in New Hampshire, said Republicans in the early-voting state are “impressed” with Vance, “but there are some people who like Marco Rubio even more.” Hagen said that Rubio conducts himself well, and the way that he holds his ground when Democrats challenge him in congressional hearings is helping to burnish his reputation.
How can Vance turn the tide? Over half a dozen GOP strategists who spoke with GZERO stressed that Vance remains the early 2028 favorite, despite his hiccups on the world stage and Trump’s reported qualms about him. But they also had several ideas for how Vance can regain his footing before his stumbles become a free fall.
For one thing, Vance should make use of an institutional asset: the VP is one of only two members of the administration who are immune to the Hatch Act, meaning he can campaign as much as he wants while being in office. The other is Trump, who can’t run again. That gives Vance greater freedom to campaign than Rubio, who remains bound by this law that limits political activity. What’s more, Vance serves as finance chair of the Republican National Committee, granting him access to the party’s critical donors.
On the campaign trail, one strategist said he should focus on the issue voters care most about: the economy. Another suggested he should spend some time in early-voting states like New Hampshire, where voters still know him less than rivals like Rubio who have already run for the White House.
But there’s also “zero rush” for Vance, according to GOP strategist Matt Gorman, who was a senior adviser to Sen. Tim Scott during his 2024 presidential campaign. “The best thing you can do to help your chances is to do a good job as vice president.”
Can Vance get Trump on board? One surefire way to get a boost among Republican voters is to nab the president’s endorsement. Vance himself would know: he was lagging in third place in primary polls while running for Senate in 2022, until Trump backed him. He went on to win the nomination, and the rest is history.
But few Republican strategists expect Trump to endorse anyone early.
“[Trump] is going to want whomever it is – likely Vance – to earn it and to not coronate it,” said Gorman. This would mirror Barack Obama’s refusal to put his thumb on the scale early on in both the 2016 and 2020 Democratic nomination races.
There’s also a reason for Trump to keep his powder dry: “He is more likely to prod them to compete with each other for his affections as long as he’s in the White House,” said Cabel Roe, “because that competition probably helps him” and ensures that the candidates cannot stray too far from the president.
So if it’s not Vance? Rubio is the most obvious alternative right now, but others may be waiting in the wings to challenge Vance. After all, there’s still another 18 months until any states vote in the nomination race, and the party is filled with ambitious politicians. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could all mount a bid.
“There could be a dark horse out there we haven’t even considered,” LIBRE Initiative President Daniel Garza told GZERO.
For now, Vance remains the favorite – but that status looks more wobbly than it did two years ago.
“Pole position does not mean he’ll win,” said Mair. “I honestly won’t be surprised if he turns out not to be the 2028 nominee.”
