The US vs the Fantastic Five

The US vs the Fantastic Five

And then there were five — well, P4 +1 if you’re really counting. Last week’s decision by the US to exit the Iran deal has set off a flurry of diplomacy among the deal’s remaining signatories, four of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (P4) and Germany (+1), to try and salvage the agreement.


Yesterday, Iranian Foreign Minister Javid Zarif (pictured above) arrived in Brussels, after earlier trips to Beijing and Moscow, to talk to his counterparts about the tough road ahead.

Here’s Gabe with details on how the key players view things:

Europe: The billion-euro question is whether Europe’s leaders can keep the continent’s firms invested in Iran while the threat of US sanctions looms, as Alex Kliment pointed out yesterday. Big multinationals like Siemens and Airbus risk losing billions. But thousands of smaller European firms, less reliant on the US, now trade with Iran as well — some 10,000 in Germany alone. Can Europe keep enough cash flowing to convince Tehran that it hasn’t broken its side of the bargain? The clock is ticking

China: For Iran, China represents an economic and security lifeline. China is Iran’s top trade partner and a large consumer of Iranian crude oil. Iran is a crucial link in China’s expansive One Belt, One Road initiative. And the threat of US sanctions bites less for Chinese firms, which have fewer tie-ups in the West — so Chinese investment in Iran will continue. The biggest worry for Beijing is escalation that leads to conflict in a region to which it has increasingly tied its economic fortunes.

Russia: The threat of US sanctions is nothing new for Moscow. And Russia’s involvement in Iran is more oriented toward security issues — in Syria and across the region — than economics. Yes, scrapping the deal has boosted oil prices, a temporary boon for the Russian economy. But long term, Russia is far more interested in preventing increased proxy conflict throughout the region that could blowback directly on its troops stationed in Syria.

What’s at stake? If Iran’s chief diplomat returns home with nothing to show, domestic hardliners — who never cared for the deal in the first place — could seize the opportunity to challenge more moderate figures, only furthering the distance between Tehran and the West.

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They can stop wondering. Africa is now in the grip of a COVID emergency.

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Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi barred two Republican members from serving on the Jan. 6 commission. What's going on?

Well, the Jan. 6 commission was designed to be a bipartisan commission, taking input from members from Democrats and Republicans. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy had the opportunity to make recommendations but the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, could always veto those recommendations. In this case, she did, saying no to two members, Jim Banks and Jim Jordan, both of whom are strongly aligned with President Trump and who voted against certifying the election results in 2020. The Republicans for the most part see the Jan. 6 commission as an opportunity to score political points against them, and the Democrats say this is going to be a fair, non-biased, and nonpartisan investigation into what happened on Jan. 6, starting with a hearing next week with some of the police officers who were involved in the battle with the protesters inside the Capitol.

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In his New York Times op-ed, David Brooks says the US is facing an identity crisis — protecting liberal and progressive values at home while doing little to stop autocrats elsewhere. But has the US really abandoned its values abroad just because it's withdrawing from Afghanistan? Ian Bremmer and Eurasia Group analyst Charles Dunst take out the Red Pen to argue that the US can advance democracy without being the world's sheriff.

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Boycotts! Bans! Protests! Drugs! Think you've got gold medal knowledge about politics at the Olympics? Test what you know with this special Tokyo Olympics Quiz. And to stay current on all the latest political stories at the Games and around the world, subscribe here to Signal, our daily newsletter. Now, without further ado, the first question is...

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28: The UK and the EU have again failed to agree on post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom. In a 28-page document, the British government had suggested further changes to trade rules that were already negotiated as part of the Brexit settlement, but Brussels was not having any of it.

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