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The US vs the Fantastic Five

The US vs the Fantastic Five

And then there were five — well, P4 +1 if you’re really counting. Last week’s decision by the US to exit the Iran deal has set off a flurry of diplomacy among the deal’s remaining signatories, four of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (P4) and Germany (+1), to try and salvage the agreement.


Yesterday, Iranian Foreign Minister Javid Zarif (pictured above) arrived in Brussels, after earlier trips to Beijing and Moscow, to talk to his counterparts about the tough road ahead.

Here’s Gabe with details on how the key players view things:

Europe: The billion-euro question is whether Europe’s leaders can keep the continent’s firms invested in Iran while the threat of US sanctions looms, as Alex Kliment pointed out yesterday. Big multinationals like Siemens and Airbus risk losing billions. But thousands of smaller European firms, less reliant on the US, now trade with Iran as well — some 10,000 in Germany alone. Can Europe keep enough cash flowing to convince Tehran that it hasn’t broken its side of the bargain? The clock is ticking

China: For Iran, China represents an economic and security lifeline. China is Iran’s top trade partner and a large consumer of Iranian crude oil. Iran is a crucial link in China’s expansive One Belt, One Road initiative. And the threat of US sanctions bites less for Chinese firms, which have fewer tie-ups in the West — so Chinese investment in Iran will continue. The biggest worry for Beijing is escalation that leads to conflict in a region to which it has increasingly tied its economic fortunes.

Russia: The threat of US sanctions is nothing new for Moscow. And Russia’s involvement in Iran is more oriented toward security issues — in Syria and across the region — than economics. Yes, scrapping the deal has boosted oil prices, a temporary boon for the Russian economy. But long term, Russia is far more interested in preventing increased proxy conflict throughout the region that could blowback directly on its troops stationed in Syria.

What’s at stake? If Iran’s chief diplomat returns home with nothing to show, domestic hardliners — who never cared for the deal in the first place — could seize the opportunity to challenge more moderate figures, only furthering the distance between Tehran and the West.

Meet Alessandra Cominetti, a recipient of MIT Technology Review Magazine's Innovators Under 35 award. As a lab technician at Eni's Research Centre for Renewable Energy in Novara, Alessandra has devoted her career to finding new solutions and materials to optimize solar energy. Much like the serendipitous encounter that resulted in her employment, her eagerness and willingness to try new things allowed her to stumble upon a material for the creation of portable solar panels.

Watch her remarkable story on the latest episode of Faces of Eni.

"If [the election] is very close and it ends up in the courts, that kind of protracted situation I think will lead many Americans to believe that it was an unfair election." Rick Hasen, election law expert and author of Election Meltdown, lays out some of the worst-case scenarios for Election Day, ranging from unprecedented voter suppression to dirty tricks by foreign actors. The conversation was part of the latest episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer. The episode begins airing nationally in the US on public television this Friday, October 30. Check local listings.

Joe Biden has vowed to radically change the US' approach to foreign policy and international diplomacy should he win next week's election.

But a lot has happened in four years under Donald Trump that could impede Biden's ability to simply return to the status quo ante. How different would US foreign policy really be under a Biden presidency? What will the two-term former vice president likely be able to change, and what's bound to remain the same, at least for now?

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On Wednesday, November 4 at 11a EST, we're gathering a panel to discuss "What Just Happened" with the US election. GZERO Media's Ian Bremmer, Tony Maciulis and Alex Kliment will be joined by The Washington Post's Karen Attiah and Eurasia Group's Jon Lieber. Watch live at: gzeromedia.com/gzerolive.

Decision 2020: What Just Happened? Wednesday, November 4, 11a EST/8a PST

Panelists:

Bookmark this link to watch live: gzeromedia.com/gzerolive

Add to your calendar:

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Jon Lieber, Managing Director for the United States at the Eurasia Group, shares his perspective on a special US election edition of US Politics In 60 Seconds:

So, we're about five days out from the election right now.

And the story of this week has been the remarkably steady polling lead for Joe Biden that he's had for months now. The other big story is the turnout, massive amounts of turnout. 100% of the 2016 vote already cast in Texas. 60% nationwide votes already cast. We are headed for record shattering turnout, could be around 155 million Americans voting.

On election night, what are we watching for?

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