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One year after Dobbs, US abortion rights have gotten even more politically explosive
As the US Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling approaches its first-year anniversary on June 24, abortion is a more politically potent issue than ever. The ruling represented a victory for the decades-long campaign by conservative activists to overturn the Roe v. Wade court decision of 1973 – which granted a constitutional right to an abortion – and allowed local jurisdictions to enact severe restrictions on the procedure. But that legal victory has led to a new, intensified political battle to win elections and shape future legislation on the issue. Eurasia Group expert Kylie Milliken says the proponents of greater access to abortion currently appear to have the upper hand in this political battle. We asked her to explain.
What is the impact of the Dobbs decision?
For nearly half a century, Roe v. Wade was considered settled law. With that security, conservative politicians and voters alike could oppose abortion access without meaningful consequences. Now, a year after the Dobbs decision, consequences are here. Abortion is banned, severely restricted, or unavailable in 15 states, and that number could grow as state-level courts make further decisions. States that allow abortion have seen an influx of patients, while those that don’t have seen worsening shortages of OBGYNs and female medicine specialists.
Abortion has become a more high-profile political issue than ever before, and poll after poll shows that Americans have grown more supportive of access. Gallup polling indicates that support for abortion access spiked after Dobbs and remains at an all-time high, particularly among Democrats and women. Since Dobbs, Republicans have become slightly more likely to support some restrictions, but many polls have found that significant numbers of Republicans oppose bans and stringent restrictions in places such as Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana, which have banned abortions with exceptions that are nearly impossible to access in practice.
And what about Republican politics?
Republicans have found themselves on the wrong side of public opinion and in a difficult political position. The key GOP constituency of white Evangelical Protestants is the group that is the most supportive of abortion bans, and winning that group is generally crucial to winning a Republican primary. However, abortion-related ballot initiatives across the country and elections in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have proven that supporting abortion restrictions is not a viable political strategy to win general elections.
Federal-level Republican lawmakers are generally quiet on the issue, while state-level politicians typically fall into one of two camps. Those in conservative districts remain staunchly anti-abortion and support things like Idaho’s “abortion trafficking” law – which criminalizes the act of helping a minor obtain the procedure without parental consent – and criminal penalties for performing abortions. Meanwhile, more centrist Republicans and those in swing states and districts have attempted to offset abortion restrictions with increased access to birth control and extended post-partum Medicaid coverage. Overall, the party will struggle to find a consistent and sustainable stance on abortion access.
How might abortion rights factor into the GOP primary?
Given these difficulties, 2024 presidential candidates are struggling with abortion policy, and most are avoiding the issue altogether. Former UN Amb. and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s strategy of circumventing the question entirely (by pointing out that a federal abortion ban would never pass Congress) is likely the wisest approach a candidate could take, although failing to support national restrictions will alienate prominent pro-life groups and potentially primary voters.
Candidates who do want to address the issue will likely have to take a state-by-state approach. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has already demonstrated this strategy by praising his state’s six-week abortion ban on some campaign stops and staying silent on others. However, it will be difficult for him to find a position that will work in swing states and early voting states. According to PRRI, at least half of people in the early primary states of Iowa (61%), New Hampshire (69%), Nevada (80%), South Carolina (50%), and Michigan (66%) think abortion should be legal in all or most cases.
Is Dobbs more likely to turn out Democrat or Republican voters in 2024?
Abortion access is a winning issue for Democrats. Polling indicates that Democrats have grown particularly pro-access since Dobbs, and a Kaiser Family Foundation survey found that Democrats (90%) were more likely than Republicans (73%) to say that their own party represented their views on abortion. Access to the procedure is an increasingly important issue for voters, particularly pro-choice voters, a third of whom say they will only vote for candidates who share their opinion on abortion. All abortion-related ballot initiatives have gone the pro-access way, and Republicans lost key races in the 2022 midterms because of their party’s stance on the issue.
Abortion turned out Democrats in the 2022 midterms and this trend will likely continue in 2024, particularly if the courts rescind the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of the abortion pill mifepristone and if stringent restrictions are still in effect in states across the country. This will be even more true if the Republican nominee openly supports federal abortion restrictions.
How does Dobbs fit into the wider culture-war issues now dominating US politics?
Restricting abortion is part of a broader conservative push in a culture war that many of them believe they have been losing for years. It has manifested itself in right-wing circles online as a backlash against “wokeness,” a term used by the right to describe what they see as a predominantly leftist culture that has taken over American institutions including education and large corporations.
While those lawmakers remain in good standing with their base, to remain competitive in more moderate states they will eventually have to soften their stances, particularly on abortion and LGBTQ+ rights. Most voters across the political spectrum have nuanced views on those issues – polling indicates that many Republican voters think there are too many anti-trans laws and too many restrictions on abortion in red states. It remains unclear how the party will approach culture-war issues over the longer term, but for now, abortion restrictions will continue to weigh on Republicans’ electoral prospects.Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor, Eurasia Group.
A giant screen in a Beijing mall broadcasts news footage of a Chinese fighter jet flying near Taiwan.
What We're Watching: Chinese drills off Taiwan, Israeli-Palestinian violence, US abortion pills legal drama
China simulates Taiwan invasion
China "welcomed" Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen back from her Americas trip and meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy by putting on its biggest show of military force near the self-ruled island since McCarthy's predecessor, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan in Aug. 2022.
As part of three days of drills dubbed "Joint Sword" by Beijing, Chinese forces rehearsed an invasion of Taiwan, which split from the mainland in 1949 and China considers a renegade province. The so-called "combat readiness" exercises sent dozens of warships and fighter jets around the island, with many aircraft symbolically crossing the demarcation line in the middle of the Taiwan Strait. Chinese military planners also released an animated video of the simulated strikes with the capital, Taipei, exploding in flames, and the drills concluded Monday with a dry run of an aerial and naval blockade.
On the one hand, China's simulation is a clear message to Taiwan and the US: We’re not messing around so don’t test our resolve. But on the other, the scale and scope of the drills fall short of China's fiery response to Pelosi's trip, which might indicate that Beijing doesn't want to be the one to escalate.
Israel’s security situation worsens
Tensions between Israelis and Palestinians reached almost boiling point on Sunday after the last few days saw an unusually high number of violent clashes that have spilled over into southern Lebanon and even Syria.
In Jerusalem, Israeli cops had a tense standoff with Palestinian militants who had barricaded themselves inside the Al-Aqsa Mosque, which Israeli Jews call the Temple Mount and is administered by Jordan. Last week, hundreds of Palestinians were arrested in two predawn raids at the same site in scenes eerily similar to the tensions that sparked a brief Israel-Hamas war two years ago.
Meanwhile, Hamas fired rockets at Israel from the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon. (Hezbollah said it was not involved but likely signed off on the offensive as the chiefs of the Iran-backed militant group and Hamas met in Beirut.) The Israelis responded with air strikes on Gaza and Lebanon — the biggest flurry of missiles against its northern neighbor since the 2006 war. Israel also hit multiple targets in Syria in response to rockets fired by Palestinian militants into the Golan Heights, a chunk of Syrian territory that Israel annexed in 1981.
On Friday, two British-Israeli sisters were shot dead in the West Bank, and an Italian tourist was killed in a car-ramming attack in Tel Aviv. As the security situation worsens, embattled PM Benjamin Netanyahu is not taking any chances: He's already called up army and police reservists.
The legal future of US abortion medication
We warned you that this was coming. The legal status of abortion pills in the US was thrown into question Friday after two federal judges issued conflicting rulings on the drug mifepristone, used in more than half of all abortions in America.
First, a Trump-appointed, pro-life judge in Texas ordered a temporary stay on FDA approval of mifepristone, which the agency greenlit way back in 2000, giving the Biden administration seven days to appeal before mifepristone becomes illegal nationwide. Less than an hour later, another federal judge in Spokane, Washington, ruled that the drug must remain available in 17 Democratic-run states plus Washington, DC.
Whatever the outcome, the case is as legal as it is political. For one thing, it's the first time that a judge has tried suspending the longtime FDA approval of a drug, blunting the agency's regulatory teeth. Also, if the stay is confirmed, even states where abortion remains legal could be barred from prescribing the pills because the Texas injunction is nationwide. Finally, you can bet the dispute will go all the way to the Supreme Court, where the same conservative majority that overturned Roe v. Wade will rule on such a third-rail issue, possibly in 2024, an election year.