We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Supreme Court will rule on abortion rights once again. What’s at stake now?
“The [abortion pill case] affects women across the country, it’s not state by state,” Bazelon stresses, “It’s the FDA’s authority to allow pills to be shipped everywhere and other rules that have made abortion pills more accessible for women in blue as well as red states.”
A group of doctors is challenging the Food and Drug Administration's authority to allow doctors to prescribe abortion pills without an in-person visit with a patient and for those pills to be sent through the mail. Bazelon explains that this group of plaintiffs is unusual in that they haven’t yet experienced direct harm from the FDA’s ruling, which you usually need to prove has happened before a case makes it all the way up to the highest court in the land. Four female justices are also on the bench this year, a historic high-water mark. Could that make a difference in the way justices rule on either case?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
US map showing the number of abortions by state
The Graphic Truth: US abortion rates after Dobbs
It’s now been a year since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, paving the way for many states to roll back their own abortion rights. Some have all but banned access, while others have introduced fetal heartbeat laws, making the procedure (and medication abortions) legal until six weeks of gestation, before many women know they are pregnant.
As access has been severely curtailed across much of the South and Midwest, blue states – like Colorado and Illinois – have seen an influx of women traveling to their states in pursuit of abortion care. We take a look at abortion rate changes from April 2022, just before the Dobbs decision, to March 2023.
One year after Dobbs, US abortion rights have gotten even more politically explosive
As the US Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling approaches its first-year anniversary on June 24, abortion is a more politically potent issue than ever. The ruling represented a victory for the decades-long campaign by conservative activists to overturn the Roe v. Wade court decision of 1973 – which granted a constitutional right to an abortion – and allowed local jurisdictions to enact severe restrictions on the procedure. But that legal victory has led to a new, intensified political battle to win elections and shape future legislation on the issue. Eurasia Group expert Kylie Milliken says the proponents of greater access to abortion currently appear to have the upper hand in this political battle. We asked her to explain.
What is the impact of the Dobbs decision?
For nearly half a century, Roe v. Wade was considered settled law. With that security, conservative politicians and voters alike could oppose abortion access without meaningful consequences. Now, a year after the Dobbs decision, consequences are here. Abortion is banned, severely restricted, or unavailable in 15 states, and that number could grow as state-level courts make further decisions. States that allow abortion have seen an influx of patients, while those that don’t have seen worsening shortages of OBGYNs and female medicine specialists.
Abortion has become a more high-profile political issue than ever before, and poll after poll shows that Americans have grown more supportive of access. Gallup polling indicates that support for abortion access spiked after Dobbs and remains at an all-time high, particularly among Democrats and women. Since Dobbs, Republicans have become slightly more likely to support some restrictions, but many polls have found that significant numbers of Republicans oppose bans and stringent restrictions in places such as Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana, which have banned abortions with exceptions that are nearly impossible to access in practice.
And what about Republican politics?
Republicans have found themselves on the wrong side of public opinion and in a difficult political position. The key GOP constituency of white Evangelical Protestants is the group that is the most supportive of abortion bans, and winning that group is generally crucial to winning a Republican primary. However, abortion-related ballot initiatives across the country and elections in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have proven that supporting abortion restrictions is not a viable political strategy to win general elections.
Federal-level Republican lawmakers are generally quiet on the issue, while state-level politicians typically fall into one of two camps. Those in conservative districts remain staunchly anti-abortion and support things like Idaho’s “abortion trafficking” law – which criminalizes the act of helping a minor obtain the procedure without parental consent – and criminal penalties for performing abortions. Meanwhile, more centrist Republicans and those in swing states and districts have attempted to offset abortion restrictions with increased access to birth control and extended post-partum Medicaid coverage. Overall, the party will struggle to find a consistent and sustainable stance on abortion access.
How might abortion rights factor into the GOP primary?
Given these difficulties, 2024 presidential candidates are struggling with abortion policy, and most are avoiding the issue altogether. Former UN Amb. and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s strategy of circumventing the question entirely (by pointing out that a federal abortion ban would never pass Congress) is likely the wisest approach a candidate could take, although failing to support national restrictions will alienate prominent pro-life groups and potentially primary voters.
Candidates who do want to address the issue will likely have to take a state-by-state approach. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has already demonstrated this strategy by praising his state’s six-week abortion ban on some campaign stops and staying silent on others. However, it will be difficult for him to find a position that will work in swing states and early voting states. According to PRRI, at least half of people in the early primary states of Iowa (61%), New Hampshire (69%), Nevada (80%), South Carolina (50%), and Michigan (66%) think abortion should be legal in all or most cases.
Is Dobbs more likely to turn out Democrat or Republican voters in 2024?
Abortion access is a winning issue for Democrats. Polling indicates that Democrats have grown particularly pro-access since Dobbs, and a Kaiser Family Foundation survey found that Democrats (90%) were more likely than Republicans (73%) to say that their own party represented their views on abortion. Access to the procedure is an increasingly important issue for voters, particularly pro-choice voters, a third of whom say they will only vote for candidates who share their opinion on abortion. All abortion-related ballot initiatives have gone the pro-access way, and Republicans lost key races in the 2022 midterms because of their party’s stance on the issue.
Abortion turned out Democrats in the 2022 midterms and this trend will likely continue in 2024, particularly if the courts rescind the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of the abortion pill mifepristone and if stringent restrictions are still in effect in states across the country. This will be even more true if the Republican nominee openly supports federal abortion restrictions.
How does Dobbs fit into the wider culture-war issues now dominating US politics?
Restricting abortion is part of a broader conservative push in a culture war that many of them believe they have been losing for years. It has manifested itself in right-wing circles online as a backlash against “wokeness,” a term used by the right to describe what they see as a predominantly leftist culture that has taken over American institutions including education and large corporations.
While those lawmakers remain in good standing with their base, to remain competitive in more moderate states they will eventually have to soften their stances, particularly on abortion and LGBTQ+ rights. Most voters across the political spectrum have nuanced views on those issues – polling indicates that many Republican voters think there are too many anti-trans laws and too many restrictions on abortion in red states. It remains unclear how the party will approach culture-war issues over the longer term, but for now, abortion restrictions will continue to weigh on Republicans’ electoral prospects.Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor, Eurasia Group.
One year since Roe v. Wade reversal, biggest surprises in state law
Surprises and non-surprises surrounded the Supreme Court's landmark Dobbs ruling to overturn Roe v. Wade last year. It started with the infamous leak to POLITICO about the ruling to come, and then the decision itself came down nearly a year ago today. But according to GZERO World guest Yale Law legal expert Emily Bazelon, one of the biggest surprises happened after the ruling.
"What has been surprising has been the ballot initiatives that have uniformly so far protected abortion rights in the six states where they have been up for a vote, including in Kansas." The fact that, at least at the state level, abortion has fared much better than expected this past year, Bazelon says, has to do with the voters themselves.
"When abortion is put to voters directly, one issue they can concentrate on, they are more interested in protecting abortion rights than I think a lot of people on the right and the left expected."
Tune into GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television stations nationwide. Check local listings.
For more on the Supreme Court and what to expect from anticipated rulings this year, watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: "Who polices the Supreme Court?"
- 3 key Supreme Court decisions expected in June 2023 ›
- The Graphic Truth: Where can American women now get abortions? ›
- Why do Americans get so worked up about abortion? ›
- Podcast: An active US Supreme Court overturns "settled law" on abortion. What's next? ›
- Roe v. Wade overturned: Abortion restricted in half of US states ›
Podcast: An active US Supreme Court overturns "settled law" on abortion. What's next?
Listen: Americans now live in a much more divided country — as has been on full display after the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and removed the constitutional right to an abortion, while the rest of the world - including largely Catholic countries in Latin America and Europe - is moving in the opposite direction. But the SCOTUS ruling is already making waves around the world.
On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer speaks to New York Times columnist and senior research fellow at Yale Law School, Emily Bazelon, who knows a thing or two about abortion law.
Hours after the bombshell ruling dropped on June 24, Bazelon analyzed what abortion rights will soon look like across different US states; why SCOTUS upheld the constitutional right to carry guns but not to get an abortion; the next steps by the Biden administration and Congress; and why the battle over abortion pills is likely headed to the same court that got rid of Roe.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Roe v. Wade overturned: Abortion restricted in half of US states
Now that the US Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade, roughly half the states have legislation on the books restricting abortion.
And 13 of them had "trigger laws" to ban abortion once the 1973 ruling was struck down. Residents of those states seeking abortions must now travel across state lines to get an abortion — and Missouri wants to sue those who do.
What's more, it'll be a long drive: an average of 125 miles, compared to just 25 when Roe was still the law of the land, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
Pro-abortion rights health experts worry this will increase maternal mortality rates in the US and cause financial hardship for families.
If Roe v. Wade is overturned, Democrats will fight at the state level
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, shares insights on US politics:
What is happening to Roe v. Wade?
Well, this week, the Supreme Court heard arguments in a case called Dobbs v. Jackson, which challenges a Mississippi law that would outlaw abortions after 15 weeks in the state. That law itself is a direct challenge to the legal precedent set by Roe v. Wade nearly 50 years ago, which is one of the most politically important Supreme Court decisions in American history. It has driven deep polarization between the right and the left in the US and become a critical litmus test. There are very few, if any, pro-life Democrats at the national level and virtually no pro-choice Republicans at any level of government. Overturning Roe has been an animating force on the political right in the US for a generation. And in turn, Democrats have responded by making protecting Roe one of their key political missions.
So, what happens if conservatives are successful in overturning Roe v. Wade? Well, first Democrats are unlikely to take control of the Supreme Court for at least a decade and perhaps longer. So, there's not really a point in challenging the new precedent through the courts. This means all the attention will turn to statehouses where both Republicans and Democrats will fight for pro-life and pro-choice legislatures who will be able to set new policies on both how long abortions are available to women once they're pregnant and what types of facilities are allowed to do abortions. Some states have already put in place restrictive laws that say abortions can only be performed in facilities with a very high standard of medical care, which in and of itself is a way of limiting access to abortions.
You're likely to see some states move to ban abortions immediately, a position that's going to be politically unpopular as a majority of Americans support abortions with some restrictions. About 60% of Americans say they support access to abortion in the first trimester, but only about 30% of Americans say they would support abortions in the second trimester, which starts at about 12 weeks, significantly below the current threshold set under Roe v. Wade. So, while some deep red states will ban it outright, there will probably be an even smaller number of deep blue states that go beyond the current viability standard. What they're likely to do is enshrine current law at the state level. Over time without Roe, some parts of the two parties' coalitions may shift as they attempt to moderate on the issue to attract political independence as this will now become an explicitly political issue where politicians at the state level will be expected to deliver. This is likely to lead to some new but unstable, political equilibriums with swing states and compromise measures that change with control of the state government.
However, some of these states are going to find compromised middle grounds that endure.