We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
A giant screen in a Beijing mall broadcasts news footage of a Chinese fighter jet flying near Taiwan.
What We're Watching: Chinese drills off Taiwan, Israeli-Palestinian violence, US abortion pills legal drama
China simulates Taiwan invasion
China "welcomed" Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen back from her Americas trip and meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy by putting on its biggest show of military force near the self-ruled island since McCarthy's predecessor, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan in Aug. 2022.
As part of three days of drills dubbed "Joint Sword" by Beijing, Chinese forces rehearsed an invasion of Taiwan, which split from the mainland in 1949 and China considers a renegade province. The so-called "combat readiness" exercises sent dozens of warships and fighter jets around the island, with many aircraft symbolically crossing the demarcation line in the middle of the Taiwan Strait. Chinese military planners also released an animated video of the simulated strikes with the capital, Taipei, exploding in flames, and the drills concluded Monday with a dry run of an aerial and naval blockade.
On the one hand, China's simulation is a clear message to Taiwan and the US: We’re not messing around so don’t test our resolve. But on the other, the scale and scope of the drills fall short of China's fiery response to Pelosi's trip, which might indicate that Beijing doesn't want to be the one to escalate.
Israel’s security situation worsens
Tensions between Israelis and Palestinians reached almost boiling point on Sunday after the last few days saw an unusually high number of violent clashes that have spilled over into southern Lebanon and even Syria.
In Jerusalem, Israeli cops had a tense standoff with Palestinian militants who had barricaded themselves inside the Al-Aqsa Mosque, which Israeli Jews call the Temple Mount and is administered by Jordan. Last week, hundreds of Palestinians were arrested in two predawn raids at the same site in scenes eerily similar to the tensions that sparked a brief Israel-Hamas war two years ago.
Meanwhile, Hamas fired rockets at Israel from the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon. (Hezbollah said it was not involved but likely signed off on the offensive as the chiefs of the Iran-backed militant group and Hamas met in Beirut.) The Israelis responded with air strikes on Gaza and Lebanon — the biggest flurry of missiles against its northern neighbor since the 2006 war. Israel also hit multiple targets in Syria in response to rockets fired by Palestinian militants into the Golan Heights, a chunk of Syrian territory that Israel annexed in 1981.
On Friday, two British-Israeli sisters were shot dead in the West Bank, and an Italian tourist was killed in a car-ramming attack in Tel Aviv. As the security situation worsens, embattled PM Benjamin Netanyahu is not taking any chances: He's already called up army and police reservists.
The legal future of US abortion medication
We warned you that this was coming. The legal status of abortion pills in the US was thrown into question Friday after two federal judges issued conflicting rulings on the drug mifepristone, used in more than half of all abortions in America.
First, a Trump-appointed, pro-life judge in Texas ordered a temporary stay on FDA approval of mifepristone, which the agency greenlit way back in 2000, giving the Biden administration seven days to appeal before mifepristone becomes illegal nationwide. Less than an hour later, another federal judge in Spokane, Washington, ruled that the drug must remain available in 17 Democratic-run states plus Washington, DC.
Whatever the outcome, the case is as legal as it is political. For one thing, it's the first time that a judge has tried suspending the longtime FDA approval of a drug, blunting the agency's regulatory teeth. Also, if the stay is confirmed, even states where abortion remains legal could be barred from prescribing the pills because the Texas injunction is nationwide. Finally, you can bet the dispute will go all the way to the Supreme Court, where the same conservative majority that overturned Roe v. Wade will rule on such a third-rail issue, possibly in 2024, an election year.
US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy meets Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California.
What We're Watching: Tsai in California, Lukashenko in Moscow, no Easter in Nicaragua
After US speaker meets Taiwan's prez, all eyes on China
US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Wednesday met Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen in California, the last stop of her trip to the Americas. McCarthy is the most senior US official to meet a Taiwanese leader on American soil since 1979, when Washington officially recognized Beijing – rather than Taipei – as “China.”
The meeting was a bold move by the Taiwanese leader, given that China considers Taiwan part of its territory and is triggered by even the slightest hint of Americans normalizing ties with Taipei. And it definitely won’t help improve the US-China relationship. But so far, Beijing’s response has been more meow than growl.
Ahead of the tête-à-tête in California, China sent fighter jets and naval vessels near the Taiwan Strait, which separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland. Beijing followed that up by dispatching an aircraft carries and announcing spot inspections of Taiwanese ships.
Still, it wasn’t quite the massive show of force put on by China right after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last August. Blame bad timing: Xi Jinping likely doesn’t want to freak out French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, who Xi is hosting this week at a very awkward time for China-EU relations.
Lukashenko’s delicate dance
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko went to Moscow on Wednesday to pay a visit to his ally (?), friend (?), overlord (?), and partner Vladimir Putin. Whenever these two meet, Lukashenko must tread carefully. Since December 1999, Russia and Belarus have been part of a “Union State” meant to deepen economic and defense cooperation between the two former Soviet countries.
But now Putin, frustrated by a war gone wrong, is nudging Lukashenko toward further integration steps that appear to expand Russian power. Lukashenko has good reason to fear that full “integration” would allow giant Russia to swallow little Belarus whole. But he also can’t resist too aggressively, because he has faced pro-democracy protests at home that might have brought down his regime had Putin not come to his rescue.
For this reason, Lukashenko must continue a delicate dance. He allows Russia to use his country as a staging ground for war on Ukraine, and as a location for the Kremlin’s tactical nuclear weapons too, but he still resists Putin’s pressure to send Belarusian troops to join the fight.
Nicaraguan strongman cancels Easter
The Nicaraguan government is banning Holy Week street celebrations as it cracks down on critics amid a spat with the influential Catholic church.
Tensions have simmered between the church and strongman President Daniel Ortega since the anti-government protests of 2018, when his government accused clerics — who were seeking to mediate between the two sides — of supporting the streets. And amid a sweeping crackdown on dissent, Bishop Ronaldo Alvarez, a prominent Ortega critic, was sentenced in February to a 26-year prison sentence for treason, inflaming tensions in the fiercely Catholic country.
Last month, the government suspended ties with the Holy See altogether after Pope Francis called the government of Ortega – a former Marxist guerilla who somewhat unconvincingly reinvented himself as a man of faith 15 years ago – a ‘crude dictatorship’ and compared its repression of Catholics to Nazi Germany.
As Easter Sunday approaches in Nicaragua, it’s fair to ask: WWJD?