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US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy meets Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California.
What We're Watching: Tsai in California, Lukashenko in Moscow, no Easter in Nicaragua
After US speaker meets Taiwan's prez, all eyes on China
US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Wednesday met Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen in California, the last stop of her trip to the Americas. McCarthy is the most senior US official to meet a Taiwanese leader on American soil since 1979, when Washington officially recognized Beijing – rather than Taipei – as “China.”
The meeting was a bold move by the Taiwanese leader, given that China considers Taiwan part of its territory and is triggered by even the slightest hint of Americans normalizing ties with Taipei. And it definitely won’t help improve the US-China relationship. But so far, Beijing’s response has been more meow than growl.
Ahead of the tête-à-tête in California, China sent fighter jets and naval vessels near the Taiwan Strait, which separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland. Beijing followed that up by dispatching an aircraft carries and announcing spot inspections of Taiwanese ships.
Still, it wasn’t quite the massive show of force put on by China right after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last August. Blame bad timing: Xi Jinping likely doesn’t want to freak out French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, who Xi is hosting this week at a very awkward time for China-EU relations.
Lukashenko’s delicate dance
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko went to Moscow on Wednesday to pay a visit to his ally (?), friend (?), overlord (?), and partner Vladimir Putin. Whenever these two meet, Lukashenko must tread carefully. Since December 1999, Russia and Belarus have been part of a “Union State” meant to deepen economic and defense cooperation between the two former Soviet countries.
But now Putin, frustrated by a war gone wrong, is nudging Lukashenko toward further integration steps that appear to expand Russian power. Lukashenko has good reason to fear that full “integration” would allow giant Russia to swallow little Belarus whole. But he also can’t resist too aggressively, because he has faced pro-democracy protests at home that might have brought down his regime had Putin not come to his rescue.
For this reason, Lukashenko must continue a delicate dance. He allows Russia to use his country as a staging ground for war on Ukraine, and as a location for the Kremlin’s tactical nuclear weapons too, but he still resists Putin’s pressure to send Belarusian troops to join the fight.
Nicaraguan strongman cancels Easter
The Nicaraguan government is banning Holy Week street celebrations as it cracks down on critics amid a spat with the influential Catholic church.
Tensions have simmered between the church and strongman President Daniel Ortega since the anti-government protests of 2018, when his government accused clerics — who were seeking to mediate between the two sides — of supporting the streets. And amid a sweeping crackdown on dissent, Bishop Ronaldo Alvarez, a prominent Ortega critic, was sentenced in February to a 26-year prison sentence for treason, inflaming tensions in the fiercely Catholic country.
Last month, the government suspended ties with the Holy See altogether after Pope Francis called the government of Ortega – a former Marxist guerilla who somewhat unconvincingly reinvented himself as a man of faith 15 years ago – a ‘crude dictatorship’ and compared its repression of Catholics to Nazi Germany.
As Easter Sunday approaches in Nicaragua, it’s fair to ask: WWJD?
What We're Watching: Russian nukes in Belarus, Israelis vs. Bibi
Putin to deploy tactical nukes in Belarus
Vladimir Putin on Saturday announced that Russia plans to send tactical nuclear weapons to staunch ally Belarus. Construction of storage units will be completed by July 1, although Putin was vague on when the nukes themselves would be deployed. (Recap: Tactical nukes are lower-yield atomic weapons that can’t take out entire cities like strategic ones.)
The Russian leader said he made the decision after the US and UK announced they would be supplying Ukraine with anti-tank rounds made from depleted uranium. What’s more, Putin believes that Russia is well within its right to do this since America already has US tactical nukes in six NATO countries and that Moscow is not violating its nuclear non-proliferation obligations because it’ll retain control over the weapons.
US officials downplay the idea that storing Russian tactical nukes in Belarus will impact the war in Ukraine, which is already well within range of the Kremlin’s vast nuclear arsenal. But the announcement might be a provocation aimed at rattling Western public opinion against helping Ukraine as Russia struggles on the battlefield. Also, there’s currently no clear path forward for a negotiated settlement despite last week’s high-stakes meeting between Putin and China’s Xi Jinping.
Russia has often played up its nuclear rhetoric when things are not going well in Ukraine. In fact, Putin reportedly considered using tactical nukes last fall but finally decided against it. Still, the fact that the nuclear option is on the table at all should be alarming to anyone.
Israel is on fire. Will Bibi freeze the judicial overhaul?
Tens of thousands of Israelis left their beds and hit the streets late on Sunday night after news broke that Israeli PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu fired his defense minister, Yoav Gallant. Then on Monday, thousands of demonstrators descended on Jerusalem to protest outside the Knesset (parliament).
Also, Israel’s biggest trade union joined calls for a general strike for the first time since the creation of the modern state, resulting in Ben Gurion International Airport suspendingall departing flights.
Quick recap: Gallant was the first member of Bibi’s Likud party to have called for the government to suspend judicial reform legislation. A former navy commando, Gallant had demanded a halt on the grounds that the reforms were imperiling national security after scores of soldiers and army reservists said they wouldn't show up for training.
With Israel's economy at a standstill, all eyes are now on Netanyahu, who is reportedly planning to announce that he’ll put his plans on ice. But his national address has been delayed.
Meanwhile, high-profile government ministers — including Justice Minister Yair Levin, the architect of the controversial reforms — said they would support the PM if he halts the legislation, fearing it will lead to the collapse of the government. That’s a non starter for far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who threatened to topple the government if it backs down on the changes.
Still, many analysts and academics now believe that Netanyahu, the ultimate political survivor, has overplayed his hand this time around and that nothing will placate protesters but the end of the Bibi era once and for all.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk, Belarus.
Putin’s muscle flex in Belarus
Russia’s Vladimir Putin is scrambling this week to project strength and confidence in support of a war effort in Ukraine that’s gone terribly wrong. Russian forces have continued their artillery strikes against critical infrastructure targets across Ukraine, temporarily knocking out heat and electricity for civilians in many Ukrainian cities. On Monday, Putin visited Minsk to meet with an ally, Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko.
The trip appeared designed to raise Ukrainian and Western fears that Russian soldiers stationed in Belarus – perhaps accompanied by Belarussian troops – will again cross the border to take another shot at capturing Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, most likely in the spring as ground conditions improve. Russian and Belarussian fighters have again engaged in joint military drills, helping Putin to argue that he does have allies in his war in Ukraine, even if Lukashenko has so far resisted Russian pressure to formally join the war.
Putin’s latest show of strength is intended for three separate audiences. He hopes to weaken Ukrainian resistance by signaling that Russia remains fully committed to punishing Ukraine until its leaders surrender. That message is also meant to boost the arguments of those politicians in Europe and the United States who insist that long-term support for Ukraine is too expensive for their governments in a time of hardship at home. Finally, it’s designed to persuade Russians that Putin has the will to ensure their military will win in the end.
But Putin’s latest muscle flex is unlikely to make much difference. So far, Ukrainian authorities have demonstrated an ability to blunt the force of Russian attacks on infrastructure by intercepting some Russian missiles and drones and also by restoring electricity and heat relatively quickly following each major attack. There’s no sign these artillery attacks have moved Ukraine’s government toward concessions of any kind. There is no reason yet to expect NATO, the EU, or the Biden administration will hedge their bets on Ukraine’s continued resistance.
Nor is there any indication that Putin has managed to change Lukashenko’s mind about committing Belarussian troops to the fight. Even if Belarus joined the battle, the effect would be simply to pull more Ukrainian troops from other regions to repel another attack from the north. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based military think tank, argued in a recent report that a new Russian attack on Kyiv from Belarus is “extraordinarily unlikely to succeed.” Russian forces have been badly degraded since their first run on the capital, and Ukrainians are now much better prepared to play defense.
In short, Putin’s war on Ukraine grinds on with no game-changing breakthrough in sight.
For more on Putin’s attempt to push Lukashenko into a more active role against Ukraine, watch former Swedish PM Carl Bildt’s Europe in 60 Seconds.