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An Israeli member of the military adjusts an Israeli flag as armoured vehicles are arranged in formation, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, in northern Israel, September 30, 2024.
Israel invades southern Lebanon, threatens Iran
Israel killed Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday, launched airstrikes against Beirut, and early Tuesday, its troops crossed into Lebanon for the first time since 2006. The IDF has closed parts of the northern border, and the incursion is meant to target militant infrastructure near the border to eliminate the threat to Israeli border communities.
However, Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force has gone underground into tunnels 2-3 kilometers from Israel’s border, which a former senior Israeli intelligence officer says “you cannot destroy from the air,” meaning the Israeli soldiers face a brutal battle.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is issuing bold threats to Iran, even telling Iranians they will be free from their regime “a lot sooner than people think.” The messaging comes after Netanyahu said in his address to the United Nations General Assembly on Friday that “there is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that is true of the entire Middle East.”
While these are so far only threats, they raise the question of whether Israel is planning to attack Iran, its nuclear program, or perhaps even its Supreme Leader Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khameneior other senior leaders as the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate.
“Netanyahu is on a roll. The killing of Nasrallah clearly shows that Bibi is assuming more risk than observers expected,” says Eurasia Group’s Head of Research Cliff Kupchan.
“It’s still probably true that hitting Iranian leaders, weapons, or nuclear assets is too risky. If Iran has any red lines, those actions would cross it. But this version of Bibi is a gambler. If the chance of Israel hitting Iran was close to nil last week, it’s higher this week.”
Iran is protecting itself through restraint in Israel-Hamas war, says Kim Ghattas
Will Iran use Hezbollah fighters to help Hamas in Gaza?
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer spoke with Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas about the rising tensions on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, as Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah fighters exchange daily rocket fire and thousands of people on both sides flee their homes. Like Hamas, Hezbollah has an eradicationist ideology that calls for the destruction of the state of Israel, a position that could be untenable if the border clashes continue to escalate. Hezbollah is Iran’s most powerful proxy, but Ghattas doesn’t think it’s in Tehran’s interest to use the militant group to further Hamas’s goals.
“For 44 years Iran has claimed that is a supporter of the Palestinian people,” Ghattas explains, “I think Iran has come to realize that its use of the Palestinian cause has bumped up against the limits of what’s possible.”
Ghattas points out that Hezbollah’s primary purpose for Iran is to serve as a deterrent against potential strikes by Israel or the United States. The biggest priority now is to find a diplomatic solution to the Palestinian question. Given the urgency of the situation in Gaza, Iran may be more willing to discuss the possibility of a two-state solution, a position that would have been impossible to imagine even a few years ago.
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah: Fears of escalation grow
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Will Israel's mistakes with Hezbollah be repeated with Hamas?
Is Israel doomed to repeat the mistakes from its Lebanon invasion in Gaza?
For Lebanese people, it’s difficult not to see the current war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza through the lens of Israeli occupation. On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas explains why the history of Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon is incredibly relevant today: it led to a two-month siege where the city was cut off from food, water and fuel and killed 17,000 people. Now, a similar situation is playing out in Gaza and Israel is at risk of repeating the mistakes of the past. Ghattas reminds Bremmer that despite the thousands of civilian casualties, Israel failed to accomplish its strategic goals during the Lebanon invasion and is at risk of the same in Gaza.
“They said they wanted to eradicate Hezbollah,” Ghattas warns, “And yet, here we are. Hezbollah is still incredibly strong, even stronger than it was.”
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah: Fears of escalation grow
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
A giant screen in a Beijing mall broadcasts news footage of a Chinese fighter jet flying near Taiwan.
What We're Watching: Chinese drills off Taiwan, Israeli-Palestinian violence, US abortion pills legal drama
China simulates Taiwan invasion
China "welcomed" Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen back from her Americas trip and meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy by putting on its biggest show of military force near the self-ruled island since McCarthy's predecessor, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan in Aug. 2022.
As part of three days of drills dubbed "Joint Sword" by Beijing, Chinese forces rehearsed an invasion of Taiwan, which split from the mainland in 1949 and China considers a renegade province. The so-called "combat readiness" exercises sent dozens of warships and fighter jets around the island, with many aircraft symbolically crossing the demarcation line in the middle of the Taiwan Strait. Chinese military planners also released an animated video of the simulated strikes with the capital, Taipei, exploding in flames, and the drills concluded Monday with a dry run of an aerial and naval blockade.
On the one hand, China's simulation is a clear message to Taiwan and the US: We’re not messing around so don’t test our resolve. But on the other, the scale and scope of the drills fall short of China's fiery response to Pelosi's trip, which might indicate that Beijing doesn't want to be the one to escalate.
Israel’s security situation worsens
Tensions between Israelis and Palestinians reached almost boiling point on Sunday after the last few days saw an unusually high number of violent clashes that have spilled over into southern Lebanon and even Syria.
In Jerusalem, Israeli cops had a tense standoff with Palestinian militants who had barricaded themselves inside the Al-Aqsa Mosque, which Israeli Jews call the Temple Mount and is administered by Jordan. Last week, hundreds of Palestinians were arrested in two predawn raids at the same site in scenes eerily similar to the tensions that sparked a brief Israel-Hamas war two years ago.
Meanwhile, Hamas fired rockets at Israel from the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon. (Hezbollah said it was not involved but likely signed off on the offensive as the chiefs of the Iran-backed militant group and Hamas met in Beirut.) The Israelis responded with air strikes on Gaza and Lebanon — the biggest flurry of missiles against its northern neighbor since the 2006 war. Israel also hit multiple targets in Syria in response to rockets fired by Palestinian militants into the Golan Heights, a chunk of Syrian territory that Israel annexed in 1981.
On Friday, two British-Israeli sisters were shot dead in the West Bank, and an Italian tourist was killed in a car-ramming attack in Tel Aviv. As the security situation worsens, embattled PM Benjamin Netanyahu is not taking any chances: He's already called up army and police reservists.
The legal future of US abortion medication
We warned you that this was coming. The legal status of abortion pills in the US was thrown into question Friday after two federal judges issued conflicting rulings on the drug mifepristone, used in more than half of all abortions in America.
First, a Trump-appointed, pro-life judge in Texas ordered a temporary stay on FDA approval of mifepristone, which the agency greenlit way back in 2000, giving the Biden administration seven days to appeal before mifepristone becomes illegal nationwide. Less than an hour later, another federal judge in Spokane, Washington, ruled that the drug must remain available in 17 Democratic-run states plus Washington, DC.
Whatever the outcome, the case is as legal as it is political. For one thing, it's the first time that a judge has tried suspending the longtime FDA approval of a drug, blunting the agency's regulatory teeth. Also, if the stay is confirmed, even states where abortion remains legal could be barred from prescribing the pills because the Texas injunction is nationwide. Finally, you can bet the dispute will go all the way to the Supreme Court, where the same conservative majority that overturned Roe v. Wade will rule on such a third-rail issue, possibly in 2024, an election year.
British pound coins are seen in front of displayed stock graph.
What We’re Watching: Bank of England intervenes, Pyongyang provocations, Israel-Lebanon gas deal
Bank of England to the rescue?
The Bank of England stepped in Wednesday to try and calm markets that had gone haywire after the Conservative British government, led by new PM Liz Truss, introduced £45 billion ($49 billion) worth of tax cuts despite sky-high inflation. The bank will fork out £65 billion ($70 billion) to buy government bonds “at an urgent pace” to try to revive investor confidence and boost the pound, which recently fell to a record low against the US dollar. This development comes after the International Monetary Fund issued an unusual rebuke this week of British fiscal policy, warning that the tax cuts would exacerbate inequality. There are also concerns that some pension funds, which invest in government bonds, could be made insolvent following the collapse of UK government bond prices in recent weeks. Though the bank’s intervention is significant, there’s no indication that the Truss government is willing to reverse course (i.e. limit borrowing) to regain market trust. Meanwhile, in a keynote speech Wednesday, Labour leader Keir Starmer said Tories had “crashed the pound,” noting that “this is a Labour moment.” Indeed, Labour is currently trouncing the Conservatives in the polls, but Starmer would need to maintain this momentum until the next general election, which must be held by January 2025.
North Korean nuclear test jitters ahead of Harris trip to Seoul
Kim Jong Un loves to put on a big fireworks show to welcome top US officials to South Korea. But will North Korea's supreme leader literally go nuclear when Vice President Kamala Harris visits South Korea later this week? Washington is warning that Pyongyang might follow up this year’s flurry of missile launches with its first atomic test since 2017 … while Harris is in Seoul. Kim is likely upset that US and South Korean forces are holding joint military drills, which the North Koreans regard as a provocation. On the one hand, testing a nuke would put North Korea on everyone’s radar like the country hasn’t been since 2018, when Kim hung out with former President Donald Trump. On the other, Pyongyang passed on an opportunity to make a bigger atomic splash when President Joe Biden went to South Korea in May. Also, Kim might want to avoid doing anything rash that might upstage his friend, China’s Xi Jinping, who doesn't want any more trouble ahead of the 20th Communist Party Congress in mid-October.
Israel and Lebanon near a maritime deal
While Israel and Lebanon have fought several bloody wars, their most recent battle has been a maritime dispute over drilling rights in the Mediterranean Sea’s Karish gas field. Israel discovered the 860-square-kilometer field (332 square miles) in 2013 and plans to take it online in 2023 after years of delays. But Lebanon claims part of the field falls within its exclusive economic zone, something Israel refutes. What’s more, Hezbollah, a formidable player in Lebanese politics (deemed a terror group by the US), has called Israeli extraction at Karish a “red line” and has threatened to attack. In July, Hezbollah sent drones over the field, which Israel shot down. While Israel plans to produce most of this gas for domestic use, it could help boost production in the eastern Mediterranean, freeing up other sources for export – which could help Europe wean itself from Russian supplies in the longterm. Israel has tapped into several lucrative gas fields to become a net energy exporter in recent years, strengthening energy ties with former regional foes, Egypt and Jordan, and investing in LNG platforms. Lebanese President Michel Aoun recently said the US-driven talks are in their “final stage” and that a deal could soon be signed.
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