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What We’re Watching: Blowbacks in the Gulf and South Africa

"Sabotage" in the Gulf – On Sunday, four commercial ships, including two Saudi oil tankers, were hit by a "sabotage attack" off the coast of the United Arab Emirates. So far, no one has claimed responsibility, but Tehran is in the spotlight. Iran recently threatened to close the nearby Strait of Hormuz – a critical waterway for global oil shipments – in retaliation against tighter US sanctions. Whether this attack was carried out by Iran, or by someone trying to implicate Iran, rising tensions between the US and the Islamic Republic mean this is worth keeping an eye on.

Ramaphosa on offense – Celebrating victory in last week's national election, South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa made a bold promise to tackle corruption within his party, the governing African National Congress (ANC), "whether some people like it or not." By "some people" he's pointing directly at former President Jacob Zuma and those still loyal to him within the ANC. This shows us that Ramaphosa believes his win gives him an opportunity to consolidate authority within a divided party and to sideline the discredited Zuma faction once and for all. We'll be watching to see how Zuma (directly or indirectly) responds.

What We're Ignoring: Mike in Sochi, Burgers in Traffic

Mike Pompeo in Sochi – The US secretary of state arrives in Sochi today for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Top on the agenda are likely to be Venezuela, where Moscow and Washington back rival contestants for power, as well as Iran, where Moscow still supports the nuclear deal which the US left last year. We are, however, ignoring the secretary of state's visit, because we – and, presumably, Mr Putin – have learned that unless Trump himself is involved, its hard to be certain just what, if anything, Pompeo can really achieve.

A Whopper of a Bad Solution – The traffic in Mexico City is notoriously awful, but not as awful as Burger King's new idea for how to ease the angst. The flame broiling US burger chain has launched a new app that enables people to order Whoppers that are delivered directly to their cars by motorcycle. We are ignoring La Traffic Whopper because indigestion is no solution for congestion. DING! (credit to Gabe for that gem.)

Empathy and listening are key to establishing harmonious relationships, as demonstrated by Callista Azogu, GM of Human Resources & Organization for Nigerian Agip Oil Company (NAOC), an Eni subsidiary in Abuja. "To build trust is very difficult. To destroy it is very easy," says Callista, whose busy days involve everything from personnel issues to union relationships. She sees great potential for her native Nigeria not only because of the country's natural resources, but because of its vibrant and creative people.

Learn more about Callista in this episode of Faces of Eni.

Saturday will mark the beginning of an historic turning point for European politics as 1,001 voting members of Germany's Christian Democratic Union, the party of Chancellor Angela Merkel, hold an online conference to elect a new leader.

Here are the basic facts:

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Does Cuba belong back on the US's State Sponsors of Terrorism list? The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board showed their support for Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's decision on this issue in a recent opinion piece, "Cuba's Support for Terror." But in this edition of The Red Pen, Ian Bremmer and Eurasia Group analysts Risa Grais-Targow, Jeffrey Wright and Regina Argenzio argue that the WSJ's op-ed goes too far.

We are now just a few days away from the official end of Donald Trump's presidency, but the impacts of his latest moves in office will obviously last far beyond Joe Biden's inauguration. There's the deep structural political polarization, the ongoing investigations into the violence we saw at the Capitol, lord knows what happens over the next few days, there's also last-minute policy decisions here and abroad. And that's where we're taking our Red Pen this week, specifically US relations with Cuba.

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Watch Jon Lieber, who leads Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, lend perspective to this week's historic impeachment proceedings.

Impeachment. President Trump became the first president ever to be impeached twice this week. And the question on everybody's mind is will he be convicted in the Senate? And I think the answer right now is we just don't know. I'd probably bet against it. There was a really strong Republican vote against impeaching him in the House, with only 10 of the over 100 Republicans breaking with the President and voting to impeach him. And the question now is in the Senate, is there more support for a conviction? Senate Majority Leader McConnell has indicated he's at least open to it and wants to hear some of the facts. And I expect you're going to hear a lot of other Republicans make the same statement, at least until the trial begins.

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They call it Einstein. It's the multibillion-dollar digital defense system the US has used to catch outside hackers and attackers since 2003. But it was no match for what's looking like one of the biggest cyber breaches in US history. Ian Bremmer breaks it down.

Watch the GZERO World episode: Cyber attack: an act of espionage or war?

The GZERO World Podcast with Ian Bremmer. Listen now.

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