A Tough Act to Follow—Venezuela Edition

Given the depth and longevity of Venezuela’s political and economic crisis, President Nicolas Maduro, the salsa-loving successor to strongman Hugo Chavez, has clung to power with remarkable tenacity. He may hang on a while longer, but new evidence emerged this week that makes clear why he can’t survive indefinitely.


One — new data from OPEC and the International Energy Agency show the decline in Venezuela’s all-important oil production is gathering speed. This problem will have an increasingly dramatic effect on the government’s cash-flow, especially since a considerable amount of the country’s oil is needed at home. Otherwise, it goes toward paying off loans from other countries, or is sold at a deep discount to its ally Cuba.

Two — after purging Rafael Ramirez, former head of state-run oil firm PDVSA, and others a few months ago, Maduro ordered the arrest last week of former Interior Minister Miguel Rodriguez Torres, a former spy chief under Chavez and potential political rival for Maduro. Several military officers have also been arrested. Is Maduro in imminent danger from the ruling elite or the military? From the outside, it’s impossible to know. But purges can sometime create enemies, even where none existed before.

In short, the cash cow is wasting away, and the risk of dissent within the elite is on the rise.

Wrecking the global economy's hopes for a relaxing late-August Friday, China and the US have taken fresh shots at each other in their deepening trade war.

First, China announced new tariffs on US goods in response to US levies on China's exports that are set to take effect next month.

Trump responded with a vintage tweet storm, lashing out at China and demanding that US firms stop doing business there. The Dow plunged as markets waited for the next shoe to drop. And drop it did: later in the day Trump announced higher tariffs on nearly everything that China exports to the United States.

Why now? Bear in mind, all of this comes right as Trump is leaving for this weekend's G7 summit in France. That gathering already promised to be a testy one – but with the global economy slowing, the impact of Trump's increasingly nasty trade war with China will add fresh tensions to the occasion.

So where are we in the trade war now? Here is an updated list of what measures each side has imposed to date, and what's next. Both sides have a lot at stake, but from the looks of it, the list isn't going to get shorter any time soon.

When Donald Trump first started talking about buying Greenland last week, we figured it was a weird story with less legs than a Harp seal.

Signal readers, we were wrong. President Trump was so serious about purchasing the autonomous Danish territory that this week he abruptly cancelled a trip to Denmark after the country's prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, labelled the idea "absurd."

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The Amazon in flames – More than 70,000 forest fires are burning in Brazil right now, most of them in the Amazon. That's up 84% over the same period last year, and it's the highest number on record. This is the dry season when farmers burn certain amounts of forest legally to clear farmland. But critics say Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro's efforts to loosen conservation rules have encouraged farmers, loggers, and miners to set more fires, many of them illegally. Bolsonaro – a science skeptic who recently fired the head of the agency that tracks deforestation – says, without proof, that NGOs are setting the fires to embarrass his government. Meanwhile, the EU is holding up a major trade deal with Brazil unless Bolsonaro commits to higher environmental protection standards, including those that affect the Amazon.

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Over the past fifty years, the Amazon rainforest has shrunk by an area equal to the size of Turkey. In the 1960s and 1970s, the Brazilian government supported settlement of the sparsely populated region for security reasons. Since then, huge swaths of the forest -- which is crucial for limiting the world's greenhouse gasses -- have been cleared for farmland used to feed Brazil's population and support its massive agricultural exports. Greater awareness of the environmental impacts in the 1990s produced tighter conservation regulations, though plenty of illegal clearing continues. In recent years, the annual deforestation rate has begun to rise again, and Brazil's new president Jair Bolsonaro has pledged to weaken regulations further in order to support businesses.