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Podcast: What does the world think of the US election?
No matter who wins the US election, the result will echo around the world through America's policies on trade, immigration, and security. To understand that impact better, the writers of Signal, GZERO's newsletter, asked local journalists in 24 countries how the election is viewed where they live, and what they expect next. Overall, unease about the US role in the world will last well beyond November 3. This special podcast features highlights of those interviews presented by the Signal team, and moderated by GZERO's Alex Kliment.
This podcast is part of the GZERO project Global voices on the US election, which you can find in full here.
US election seen from Philippines: Will the US push China out?
Camille Elemia is a multimedia reporter with Rappler, an online news platform in the Philippines. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Carlos Santamaria: In your opinion, why do you think this US election matters to Filipinos?
CE: It's because of the situation with China. We are so close to China physically. And at the same time, the Philippines has been a colony of the US for the longest time. The influence is still there. We're waiting to see what the US role will become after the election.
CS: One of the major campaign issues here is the "new Cold War" between the US and China. How do you think Filipinos view this US-China competition?
CE: Filipinos have more love for the US than for China, especially with the tensions between the Philippines and China in terms of the harassment and the militarization in the South China Sea. Filipinos trust the US more than China. But sadly, it hasn't translated to our government yet.
CS: How would you say the Philippines was affected by the outcome of the 2016 US election?
CE: Filipinos seem to compare President Duterte with President Trump, and we all know their similarities. In terms of Filipinos' lives, it's more about the presence of the US in the South China Sea. It's really a big issue for Filipinos because we really care about the South China Sea. And now we feel like there's not much influence from the US to try to stop China from further encroaching on those maritime waters.
CS: But the Trump administration recently reversed course and endorsed the 2016 arbitration ruling that struck down China's claims in the South China Sea. Do you think Filipinos are aware of the new official policy?
CE: Yes. But some Filipinos would really look at the actual effect, because it was just recently and for the longest time coupled with a pivot to China by our president. We feel more and more the presence of China in our own land. We have more Chinese here, we have incessant reports of abuse or harassment of fishermen. So even if the US changed its policy, for the longest time their presence has been very limited.
CS: The Philippines is consistently one of the countries that has the highest approval for Donald Trump. How would you explain that?
CE: Regardless of who the president is, Filipinos have an affinity for Americans, which is kind of sad when you look into that, how Filipinos view themselves as compared to America. Even before and then with President Trump, some Filipinos think the US is not really present in our region now, compared to before. But they cannot really associate that with President Trump himself. As for President Trump, they see him very much like President Rodrigo Duterte. They're alike, you know, he says what he wants. And just to prove a point, I think many Filipino-Americans, immigrants in the US, I talk to them and they're also voting for President Trump. It's like they really want someone who can relate to them in a sense, they feel these are real people because they say what they want. Not necessarily the right things.
CS: What do you think the stakes are for the Philippines with the upcoming US election?
CE: Security in the region and in the country depend on how the US will deal with the Philippines in trying to convince our government not to really get too close to China. I think it's too late already, but let's see if maybe Biden wins, there's a chance that he will convince the president to slow down because right now even our infrastructure, telecommunications are all being taken over, infiltrated by Chinese state companies. We need the US back for the balance of power to return to the region.
CS: If Biden wins, how do you see him convincing Duterte of anything?
CE: We had a terrible relationship with Obama. Right now, what really angers Duterte are the actions of the US senators. If there's a way for Biden to talk to the senators to stop or to slow down on Duterte and his allies... If Biden tries to do a different attack than what Obama did with blasting Duterte on human rights, because Duterte doesn't like being shamed in public, that's one thing he could do to try to improve their relations.
You have to understand that Duterte wants to save face in public. Maybe they could negotiate behind closed doors. Not slam him in public because he has this macho image that he has to protect. And that's what he really hates, being criticized in public.
CS: If Duterte were charmed by a future US administration, how would China take that?
CE: China will not easily give up because the Philippines for the longest time has been the loudest critic of their militarization in the South China Sea. But we have now kept quiet because of ties with China. I think China will not give up, we're not going to see China backing away from this. One thing that the new US administration can do is also to try to reestablish ties with the Philippine military. Our military has a US background in training. Even with the president now, it's still not easy for the military to follow China because their training is all patterned from the US. But the first thing they have to do is not attack Duterte in public — that's really one thing that will block his mind. Like, if you're attacking me in public, no. Whatever you say, no.
This interview is part of the GZERO project Global voices on the US election, which you can find in full here.
US election seen from Turkey: Turkish people have "a very negative perception of Joe Biden"
İpek Yezdani is an international freelance journalist based in Turkey. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Carlos Santamaria: In your opinion, what are two or three issues that people in Turkey are concerned about regarding the upcoming US election?
IY: There are several very important critical issues for Turkey-US relations. One of them is, of course, Syria. During the Obama administration, there was huge support for the Kurdish YPG forces in Syria. During the Trump administration, this support has continued for a while. The Turkish government considers the YPG as a terrorist organization, but on the other hand, Turkey is an ally, a NATO ally, maybe one of the strongest US allies in the Middle East. We has been fighting against this terrorist organization for decades, so this is a very important issue for Turkey.
The second important issue is US sanctions against Turkey after the Turkish bank Halkbank broke US sanctions against Iran. But the Trump administration has managed to limit these sanctions to a very low level.
Another important issue is the Fethullah Gülen movement. Gülen is an Islamic scholar who lives in Pennsylvania. His presence in the US is a big problem for Turkey-US relations because the Turkish government considers him the mastermind of the coup attempt in 2016. Turkey has been asking the US to give him back for many years.
CS: And what do Turkish people think about the relationship between President Trump and your President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan?
IY: Turkish people think that there's a very good relationship between Trump and Erdoğan. The Turkish government believes that Erdoğan can manage to have good relations with Trump based on his personal dialogue with Trump rather than on the rules of international relations. Their relations are based, actually, on the two leaders' personal dialogue. So there is this perception in the Turkish public as well. And the Turkish public mostly thinks that continuing the Trump administration will be more favorable for Turkey.
CS: So the sentiment in Turkey is that the country overall benefited from the 2016 outcome, from Trump's victory?
IY: Yes, definitely. Because his rival back then, Hillary Clinton, was known for her close relationship with the Gülen movement. And most of the public opinion was that if Hillary Clinton won, it would be really bad for Turkey.
CS: Is that perception widespread, or is it more outside of Istanbul, where most of Erdoğan's power base lies?
IY: To be honest with you I think people in rural areas don't much care about who is elected in the US. They don't even know who the candidates are. I'm talking about people who follow the news, who are interested in these issues or who are involved in politics in Turkey. The general perception was that Hillary Clinton would not be good for Turkey.
On the other hand, Donald Trump wrote a letter to Erdoğan, telling him "Don't be a fool" [over invading northern Syria]. There was a huge outrage in Turkey. But even though the letter was full of insults, people forgot about that, and also the government also forgot about that. And the Turkish government continued trying to have good relations with the Trump administration.
And I think they got the result of their efforts because Trump decided to withdraw US forces from Syria. The policies of Trump regarding Syria are mostly in favor of Turkey.
CS: So, what would you say the stakes are for Turkey if Trump is reelected, or Joe Biden wins?
IY: If Trump wins, the Turkish government and the Turkish public think that it would be much more favorable for Turkey because of good relations with Trump. If you remember, Trump has also several times mentioned that "Erdoğan is a great guy, I have very good relations with him." Trump also had this kind of rhetoric regarding Erdoğan most of the time.
CS: Is that appeal to Erdoğan's ego important in Turkey?
IY: Definitely. It's very important for Erdoğan's image in the public eye, because in Turkey most of the mainstream media is under the control of the government. And when Trump says something like this, it becomes huge news here. And, you know, the perception is like "look, our president can convince President Trump in the way that he wants to convince him." Maybe I am exaggerating right now, but it is seen as though "Erdoğan bends the knee of Trump."
CS: So what happened with the letter? How was that perceived in Turkey?
IY: Of course, it was perceived in a very negative way. There was a lot of reaction. There was outrage among the public and especially the opposition parties. They criticized the government a lot over this letter, and they blamed it for being weak on Trump. But still, the letter was forgotten. And the Turkish government continued its business as usual with the Trump administration.
CS: What do people in Turkey think about Joe Biden?
IY: Right now, there's a very negative perception of Joe Biden, especially because of an interview with the New York Times where Biden said his aim is to unseat Erdoğan. And he openly said that we are going to make Turkey pay the price for what they have done until today. Even the opposition parties have criticized Joe Biden, saying that Turkey is an independent nation and you're not the architect of this nation anymore. So you cannot interfere in Turkey's domestic politics.
CS: If Biden is elected, how do you think Erdoğan is going to handle the relationship with him?
IY: I think it's going to be really difficult for Erdoğan because Biden already has a lot of prejudices about Turkey. Biden says many wrong things about the Kurdish minority in parliament, and about Turkey's purchase of S-400 missiles from Russia. Clearly, he is not being well informed about Turkey.
This interview is part of the GZERO project Global voices on the US election, which you can find in full here.
US election seen from Italy: Curious about Trump’s destiny
Massimo Gaggi is an Italian journalist with the Corriere della Sera newspaper. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Willis Sparks: Italy has been through so much this year with COVID-19. What's going on in Italy at the moment, and what was the mood like then?
MG: The mood, obviously, was very depressed during the spring, when the crisis came out so badly in Italy. The mood was also a little bit upset vis-à-vis the other European countries and the United States, to be honest with you, because we felt that we didn't get any help in that period, and also that we got some judgment that was not so right. The situation is very much different now, because Italy is the country with the best situation in Europe at this moment. We are pretty proud about what we've done in this period.
WS: Beyond anger at the European Union, there is also some anger at the United States?
MG: We should make a difference between the mood of the people and the mood of the government. The mood of the people was led by what they saw. We saw that China was helping Italy, Russia sent military hospitals, while Europe was very tight in giving help. But the US also didn't give any help at the beginning of this crisis, even if at the time the US was not in a very bad position. Then when the crisis started to be severe in the US, the news was that President Trump was buying masks and other equipment, respirators or ventilators all over the world, sometimes buying some stocks already bought by other countries.
All these stories were very bad, but this is very much superficial. What is deeper is the institutional difference between the United States and Europe. The US is used to giving commercial companies a lot of responsibility in areas that have a relevant political value. American companies working in Italy — Coca-Cola or pharmaceutical and technology companies — gave a lot of help. They bought material for hospitals, pharmaceuticals. They gave a lot. But you didn't see this in terms of communication because they were just private donations, unlike support from a national government.
WS: Does this US presidential election matter in Italy? Does it matter to Italian people? Does it matter to the Italian government?
MG: For the Italian people, at this moment, the US election is more a curiosity about the destiny of the leadership of Donald Trump. While all the interest there was to go for Barack Obama has disappeared, now they know Joe Biden, but they don't have any specific idea about his politics, and what is going to be a country led by Joe Biden. People know something about Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. They read something about the Green New Deal, also because the European Union is trying to do something similar. Obviously, there was an interest in Bernie Sanders to do well during the primaries. But I will say that today there is specific attention and interest in the politics of the Democratic Party.
It is more a mood like it was in Italy 10 or 15 years ago, where we were going through Italian elections in which you were not discussing very much about the right or the left. The discussion was Berlusconi si, Berlusconi no. At the time, the political debate in Italy before the vote was not so much about the difference in policies from the right of Berlusconi and the left of the Italian Democratic Party and other smaller parties of the leftist coalition. It was just about the personality of Silvio Berlusconi. That's what I'm seeing at the political debate in the US. I see many points of contact with the mood that we had in Italy at the time, also because it was very difficult for the left at the time. And I think this is difficult for the left in the US now, even to propose new, really effective policies for the growth of the economy.
WS: What about the Italian government?
MG: One important thing that I think we have to underline is the fragmentation of the government. We had a change with the exit of the Lega, then in the end came in the Italian Democratic Party, even if the prime minister is still Giuseppe Conte. So in general terms, the government obviously is very much in favor of Donald Trump also because Trump gave his support several times to Conte.
Then you have the problem of the Lega, which is still officially in favor of the White House of Trump. At the same time, the Americans and the Department of State, Mike Pompeo, made it clear discussing with Mr Salvini that the US didn't like very much a party that is too close to the Russia of Vladimir Putin. And also the other major party of the coalition, Five Stars, which is very close to Melenchon [far-left French politcian] and his vision of the state, and on globalization pretty close to the Trump ideology. Also a powerful movement, although there are some problems because its leader, Luigi di Maio, is pretty close to China. Obviously, the US didn't like this, and they were pretty vocal about it. The third element of the coalition is the Italian Democratic Party, which is closer to the Americans. The government is pretty much in favor of Donald Trump, but in a very fragmented way.
But it's very clear in the mind of the politicians that even if most of the opposition considers Trump an ally or a friend of Italy, everybody's too upset about the lack of support from the US in the Mediterranean during the crisis in Libya. Because of this lack of interest by the United States, now we have important roles for Russia, Turkey and even Egypt. This is going to be a pretty relevant problem for Italy, and I think in the future also for the other Western countries, including the US.
This interview is part of the GZERO project Global voices on the US election, which you can find in full here.
US election seen from Japan: Will US lead again?
Junko Tanaka is a former Washington bureau chief for NHK, Japan's national broadcaster. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Carlos Santamaria: What are two or three issues that people in Japan are concerned about regarding the US election?
JT: First and foremost, we're keen to find out the implications of the election for US foreign policy and trade policy. The US election is normally determined by domestic issues, but there is a stark contrast between Trump and Biden on their world views. We're interested to see how the foreign policy debate unfolds on issues such as relations with China, with Russia, or with traditional allies like Japan and NATO countries. We're also watching how trade issues or global issues may or may not be debated.
For us, Trump represents a protectionist view, whereas Biden has more of an internationalist view. And all this can greatly impact not only US-Japan relations, but international affairs as a whole.
Secondly, we're interested in which candidate has a more viable plan to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and recover the economy at the same time. We were shocked to see the US, the superpower of the world, suffer the most from this pandemic. President Trump seems to be paying a political price to a certain extent, but we don't know how much. We're not sure whether Biden has a specific plan to pull this country out of this situation.
Lastly, another angle is whether the legitimacy of the election will be preserved this year, in a pandemic. We are interested to see how the actual voting will work in this situation, and whether the outcome of the election is respected by both sides.
In more general terms, we understand that American society is so polarized now that the outcome will suggest which side is more upset and has more political force. The big question is how people in the middle, the "silent majority," are feeling and voting. Overall, we're interested in where the center of gravity in US society is, and in which direction it is shifting because that can have an enormous impact and ripple effects throughout the world — just like the election four years ago of Trump prompted the rise of anti-establishment populism in other countries, and that affected geopolitics around the world.
CS: How would you say that the 2016 outcome of the election affected Japan?
JT: I would say mixed. When Trump was elected in 2016, many people in Japan, including myself, were taken as surprised. Just like many other people in the world. But I would say we were relatively quick to adapt to the new reality. There is more or less a consensus in Japan that whoever the US president is, whether you like him or not, we need to maintain strong relations with the US. We can't afford to have a bad relationship. So when other leaders of the world, especially in Europe, distanced themselves from Trump, Prime Minister Abe flew to New York right after the election to become the first world leader to greet the president-elect, and declared that Trump was the leader we could trust. Ever since, Abe has been very careful not to offend President Trump and has been seen as one of Trump's close partners. Maybe for that reason he has avoided the outright humiliation by President Trump that other leaders in Europe experienced, and US-Japan relations have been relatively stable.
However, we also understand the transactional nature of foreign policy by President Trump. It is obvious that President Trump doesn't care much about the mutual benefit of the alliance mechanism. His focus in dealing with allies is the balance sheet, whether in terms of trade or defense burden-sharing. Although not as strongly as the Europeans, Japan has certainly been feeling the pressure from the US. And we wouldn't be surprised if President Trump one day decides to demand much higher contribution from Japan by suggesting a possibility of withdrawing the US troops from Japan. So, there is always this little cloud of unpredictability hanging over our head when it comes to President Trump. But we also have to understand that his stand reflects a certain public opinion in the US, who say they are tired of being the policeman for the world.
CS: What would you say are the stakes for Japan if Trump is reelected, or Biden wins?
JT: Well, we feel that the US-Japan bilateral relation is basically stable, no matter who is in the White House. However, the tone with the relations may change depending on the outcome of the election, because the two candidates have completely different views about the alliance mechanism. If Trump is reelected, he might become tougher on Japan. Biden has a more traditional and comprehensive view of the alliance mechanism. Biden will be more predictable, and we may feel a little more secure about the stability of the alliance.
Another important factor for us is relations with China. China is our neighbor, and even though we have differences, Japan would like to avoid too much tension with this rising superpower. Therefore, we hope that whoever is the next president can strike a right balance in dealing with China. Right now in this election, the two candidates are competing with each other: Who is tougher on China? But we want to see their true intentions beyond the election. One thing for sure is we don't want to see a new Cold War. The most important thing from Japan's point of view is that a strong US presence remains in the region because if the US withdraws, China will fill the vacuum and set the rules of conduct in the security and economic arena.
CS: Biden has mentioned that that if he were elected, he would consider building a global coalition to stand up to China. Would Japan join it?
JT: Yes, in a general sense. It depends on what he means. Japan hopes that the US will take a lead in reestablishing the liberal world order in the region, which is probably missing in the last several years because the US is becoming so inward-looking. If the US takes a lead again to establish that liberal world order based on the rules and freedom of trade and investment, I would say Japan is all for that.
This interview is part of the GZERO project Global voices on the US election, which you can find in full here.
US election seen from Germany: We need a "US strategy"
Torsten Riecke is an international correspondent for Handelsblatt, the German financial daily. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Carlos Santamaria: Do Germans think the US election will make a difference for them?
TR: When President Trump came into power, it was clear very quickly that the Transatlantic relationship is going to change. And that's what happened. So issues like defense, taking care of Germany's own security, and the latest news that is he is pulling out the troops, which affects communities in Germany. Germany has to spend more money on defense. We have a debate about this now, which I think it's a good thing, but people begin to realize that we are in a new phase of this relationship. It already started before with the Obama administration, because he touched on that issue, too. But it was much more forceful from the Trump administration.
CS: How do Germans view the increasingly antagonistic relationship between the US and China?
TR: There's some kind of looking back to the good old times, when everything was okay, but I think people are realizing now that those times are not going to come back, even if the White House has a new president in November. This is kind of a painful process here because of our history as a country of World War Two. So we are actually in a debate about that — Germany needs to play a bigger role on the world stage and that will have to be with more hard power than we have been used to. We actually outsourced our security to NATO and the United States.
CS: How do Germans view Angela Merkel's handling of these difficult last few years?
TR: If you look at President Trump and the chancellor, obviously the personalities — and you can actually see it when they meet — they are so different. It's so visible. If you look at the faces, the gestures, they're very different people. That was completely different with the Obama administration, especially with President Obama. They had a very good relationship, even a friendship. Obama left office and came to Germany, met Merkel. They had a public appearance. So this was really close on a personal level.
But Merkel is very pragmatic in this sense. She's very rational. She tried to make it look as good as it goes. And she knew and she still knows all the difficult parts when it comes to dealing with this president, Trump. But this is probably the biggest gap we have at the moment. We don't have any strong personal relationship between the leaders of the two countries. And that's very different from the past, even in the early years of the second Bush administration. There were big differences over the Iraq War, but they were still talking. In the real meetings, behind closed doors, they were actually shouting at each other, but at the moment it's kind of an indifference on both sides.
Germany's not that important for the US, and Germany feels that it has to look elsewhere when it comes to very important issues.
CS: Do you think a Biden presidency can rekindle the relationship?
TR: That's going to be tricky because I think on a personal level, Biden is well known here because he is a foreign policy politician. So he's very well connected in the political class here in Germany and in Europe. People know him. He comes over as very comfortable. He's a guy you can talk to. He's not that difficult to deal with. But when it comes to the policy issues, there will be some awakening here in Germany that even what the Biden administration will say on China — let's say mostly it won't be so different from what the Trump administration is actually asking for at the moment.
CS: Are you saying Germans look forward to Biden, but will be adjusting expectations that there are certain things that will just have to continue as is for some time?
TR: I think the wider public, the people on the street, they would love to see change in the White House when it comes to the November election. Just for personal reasons, to make it easier, to not be scared anymore about what's going on in the White House and what's happening with the pandemic.
On the political level, there is this process ongoing that they need to find a new way of talking, dealing with the US. The foreign ministry here in Berlin came out a half year ago with the need of a US strategy for Germany. Very unusual. This was an issue we didn't have to talk about because it was a friendship. It was a good relationship all the time.
Now we see the need of having a US strategy. That means we have to change something, obviously. Otherwise there wouldn't be a need for that. And at the same time, a different department talked about the need of a China strategy. And this puts Germany, and Europe, in the middle between those two superpowers, but still knowing that there is no equidistance between Washington and Beijing.
We are much more aligned with our partners in the US. But we have to change the partnership. This process is still in its early days. And I'm doubtful that the political class will be ready to have figured all things out, even if Biden becomes president.
This interview is part of the GZERO project Global voices on the US election, which you can find in full here.
US election seen from China: Worries about a "hot war"
Wang Xiangwei is an editorial adviser for the South China Morning Post. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Carlos Santamaria: What are, in your opinion, two or three issues that people in Hong Kong and China are concerned about regarding the upcoming US election?
WX: As you know, China and the US are now engaged in a rising confrontation. In this part of the world, we are watching the unfolding presidential election with keen interest. Over the past few weeks, the Trump administration has ordered an end to Hong Kong's special status, and also signed legislation that sanctions the Chinese and Hong Kong officials responsible for cracking down on political dissent in the city. To me, it is very sad to see that Hong Kong has become the battleground where the two great powers have been at each other for political influence.
Secondly, here in Hong Kong lots of people are wondering what else Trump will do to hurt Hong Kong in his efforts to compete with China in the next few months, in the run-up to the presidential election. Also, in China there is a great concern that these two great powers are not only heading for a Cold War — there is an increasing worry that there could be a hot war over the South China Sea, over Taiwan.
CS: Is this is a serious, genuine concern?
WX: There is a serious concern that there could be accidents that could lead to a military conflict. This view is shared by many friends and the people here. The Trump administration puts the China issue front and center in the campaign in the run-up to the November election. These days, hardly a day goes by without the Trump administration announcing measures to punish Hong Kong or China, or Chinese officials or Hong Kong companies. Lots of people here are wondering if it could get even worse. The worry here is that the Trump administration could announce even more extraordinary measures to rattle China for the sake of domestic politics.
Many people here believe that the Trump administration is laying a trap, is deliberately trying to provoke China to act irrationally. But so far, I think China has tried to respond proportionately, without further escalating. The feeling we get from here is that the US really sort of doesn't care what Beijing says on the bilateral ties.
CS: So from what you're saying, they clearly think that both Hong Kong and China were negatively affected by the 2016 outcome?
WX: Absolutely. As the saying goes, it takes two to tango. So if we look back, it's very clear that's the reason we have reached such a low point in bilateral ties. There is a rising feeling here that the Trump administration and the China hawks are trying to push the confrontational nature of the bilateral ties to the point of no return. Maybe they will calm down a bit after the November election. But one thing is very clear — it does not matter too much who will sit in the White House in January next year. China-US ties will not return to the old track. But we are hoping that the November election outcome will bring some calm to these volatile times, so that the two sides can sit down and discuss the problems.
CS: The US-China rivalry now also has wide bipartisan support, because no one wants to appear weak against China. Even Biden has suggested he wants to build a coalition against China. What is the way out of this mess?
WX: There is a hope that whatever Trump is doing is largely because of domestic politics, so after the election some calm will return. It is inconceivable that the two sides, even after the November election, will not talk to each other. Of course, the gulf of mistrust is huge. But I think hopefully after the election the two sides at least could sit down and discuss the problems so that steps can be taken to try to find a new equilibrium so the two countries can coexist in a post-COVID world, and cooperate on issues like climate change, North Korea and terrorism, and also compete on other issues like technology.
CS: How do people in China and Hong Kong feel about the US-China trade deal?
WX: Trade, which was the first factor that brought the bilateral ties in a downward spiral, now has turned out to be something that the two countries can still work together on. In fact, it has now become the only ballast that could help stabilize their bilateral ties a bit.
CS: What do people in China and Hong Kong think of Joe Biden?
WX: The people here know him quite well, even though he has been hiding, campaigning from his basement at his home in Delaware.
When he was vice president for Obama for eight years, he traveled to China a lot. And he cultivated a personal relationship with Xi Jinping when Xi was the vice president of China. In a sense, he knows more about how to deal with the Chinese officials, he knows more about China than Donald Trump.
However, that does not necessarily mean that China prefers Biden to Trump, which I don't believe is entirely true. China does not have a choice, but has to work with whoever wins in the White House. And secondly, lots of people here believe it's better to work with someone you have already known and spent a lot of time with — "the devil you know."
This interview is part of the GZERO project Global voices on the US election, which you can find in full here.
US election seen from South Korea: "US has lost its reputation"
Woo Jung Yeop is a research fellow at Sejong Institute in South Korea. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Carlos Santamaria: What are a few ways you think the US election might impact South Korea?
WJY: Not only the South Korean government, but most people in South Korea view the US election this time through mainly three issues. First is how a Trump second term or a new Biden administration will approach North Korea. Second, how each would approach the alliance issue. And third, how the new US government would approach US-China relations, because that will affect South Korea's geopolitical position in the next four years.
Those three areas could be affected by the result of the election in November. That is why South Korea has a very keen interest in the outcome.
CS: Tell us a bit more about the North Korean angle...
The South Korean government had very high hopes in 2018 and 2019 when President Trump approached Kim Jong-un directly, because the South Korean government had a prospect that with that direct approach, the US government could probably expedite the denuclearization of North Korea and eventually peace on the Korean Peninsula.
In the past, with a more traditional approach from the US side, maybe during the Obama administration, there was no real outcome that we could possibly get out of it. So when President Trump said that he's going to directly deal with Kim Jong-un — even though after the second half of 2019 there was no real progress made between Trump and Kim — the South Korean government believed that it is much more possible with a Trump administration to have a solution for denuclearization. So that is why some Korean observers still believe that the Trump administration is preferable.
CS: Do you believe that opinion is shared by a majority of the people, beyond the government?
WJY: I will not say it's a majority. Yes, some observers have a concern that President Trump's hasty manner of approaching this delicate issue would result in an unsatisfying outcome. For example, if President Trump pursues some kind of deal that will give some room for North Korea to sustain its economy, it's not a solution for the denuclearization of North Korea. I'm referring to measures that would allow North Korea to keep their nuclear weapons, and at the same time ease the sanctions to the extent that North Korea doesn't need to negotiate with the United States anymore. There is a very strong division within South Korea with regard to President Trump's approach to North Korea.
CS: What about the US alliance?
WJY: One of the issues that is very critical these days between the US and South Korea is burden-sharing. Many Koreans, including conservatives who advocate for strengthening the alliance, cannot support the burden-sharing demands made by President Trump at this stage. We understand that as the security environment has changed and as the South Korean economy has grown so much compared to the past, the South Korean government can and should contribute more to the alliance. But not in the way that President Trump has proposed. On burden-sharing, many people believe that the Biden administration would be better in terms of managing the alliance because President Trump downplays the importance of the alliance.
CS: How is the US-China rivalry playing out in South Korea?
WJY: It affects South Korea, both in security and on the economy/trade. For example, with the Huawei issue on 5G, some South Korean companies want to use parts from Huawei. But with the worsening relations between the US and China, the US government demands its allies and partners not use parts from Huawei. So, the South Korean government has to make a choice whether to use the parts from Huawei or not. And the Chinese government explicitly demands the South Korean government keep using the parts from Huawei. With the experience in the past that the South Korean economy was hurt by the Chinese, the South Korean government is concerned.
In the early 2000s, when relations between US and China were good enough, South Korea enjoyed good economic relations with China and at the same time, good security and overall good relations with the United States. But it seems like it's not going to be possible anymore with the worsening relations between the US and China. And we know that there is a bipartisan consensus within the United States, that a negative view towards China is prevailing in the US. But it seems like that maybe a Biden administration will have a bit more flexibility.
CS: Do you think a Biden administration would not force you to make that really tough choice?
WJY: Probably the Biden administration, on more like multilateral issues — including climate change and other things such as the global response to the epidemics — will want to engage China, so the US will have to soften its approach towards China, compared to the current approach by the Trump administration. That is why many South Koreans believe that a Biden administration might be more flexible than a Trump administration with regard to China, even though we know that the negative view towards China is dominant within the United States.
CS: What's the current perception of the US under President Trump for South Koreans right now? Do you think this is going to change at all with Biden in the White House?
WJY: I think that the US has lost its reputation as a global leader under the Trump administration. South Koreans in general believe that a Biden administration would turn the course of the United States back to the more traditional way the US behaves in global politics.
This interview is part of the GZERO project Global voices on the US election, which you can find in full here.