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Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu walks to address his supporters at his party headquarters during Israel's general election in Jerusalem.
Netanyahu clinches it
With around 99% of the vote counted, Israel’s former longtime leader Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu is in prime position to reclaim the prime ministership, with his Likud Party having secured 32 parliamentary seats out of 120, the most of any party. Bibi is now on track to form a coalition of 64 seats made up of extremist ultra-nationalist, anti-Arab, and anti-LGBTQ parties, as well as ultra-Orthodox groups. Many post-mortems will be written in the weeks ahead, but one of the biggest stories is the failure of Meretz, a flagship left-wing party, to reach the 3.25% threshold needed to even make it into the Knesset, marking the first time that Meretz won’t sit in parliament since its founding in 1992. Israel’s left-wing establishment is pointing the finger at Labor Party leader Merav Michaeli, who in the run-up to Israel’s fifth election in under four years, refused to merge with Meretz to boost the left’s electoral prospects, and the anti-Bibi bloc more broadly. Netanyahu will now do his usual shtick to try to cobble together a coalition. Though he has the numbers on paper, this won’t be a cakewalk: Many of Bibi’s “natural partners” will make their support contingent on certain demands, like portfolio leadership positions and cash for their communities. Bibi will have to make everyone happy to get over the finish line, and it won’t be easy.
Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro gives a press statement in Brasilia.
What We’re Watching: Bolsonaro's broken silence, Iranian attack plans, Bibi’s return, Colombia & Venezuela’s lunch date
Bolsonaro lets his friend say the hard part
In a prepared and combative statement lasting less than two minutes, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Tuesday did not concede the election he lost on Sunday. He also failed to congratulate — or even mention — his opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Instead, he welcomed ongoing nationwide protests by pro-Bolsonaro truckers, saying they’re the result of a “feeling of indignation and injustice about how the elections were conducted.” He cast himself as a person who plays by the constitutional rules and said he was proud to have stood for freedom of markets, religion, and expression. “The right has truly risen in Brazil,” he said. After Bolsonaro walked off without taking questions, one of his closest allies stepped up to the podium to say Bolsonaro had in fact authorized him to begin the presidential transition. As that legal and logistical process gets underway, we are watching closely to see how far Bolsonaro pushes the popular protests to try to gain political leverage. Bolsonaro lost to former President Lula by the narrowest electoral margin in Brazil’s modern history. Buckle up.
Will Iran attack Saudi Arabia?
Tehran is reportedly preparing imminent attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia and northern Iraq that could put the US military at risk. Based on shared Saudi intelligence, the news has put the Pentagon on “high alert.” The US has 10 military bases and about 3,000 troops in Saudi Arabia and roughly 2,500 troops in Iraq. Riyadh says the plot is an attempt by the Islamic Republic to distract from the combustible situation at home, where nationwide protests – bordering on revolution – over the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini, 22, have consumed the country for more than six weeks. In recent weeks, Tehran has also bombarded Kurdish towns in northern Iraq that it blames for fomenting unrest in Iran (Amini was Kurdish). While many called for President Joe Biden to sever ties with Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman after Riyadh recently snubbed the US by cutting OPEC+’s daily oil production, this episode reveals that – for better or worse – Washington and Riyadh’s national security interests remain intertwined.
Bibi is almost back
Israelis went to the polls on Tuesday for the fifth time in under four years, and the results look very good for … former Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu. With 85% of the vote counted, Bibi’s Likud Party has won the most seats – 31 – while his right-wing allies also appear to have the numbers to help him pass the 61-seat threshold (out of 120) needed to form a government in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Interestingly, voter turnout was at a two-decade high. Far-right parties including the anti-Arab, anti-LGBTQ Religious Zionism bloc, as well as several ultra-Orthodox parties, reaped solid results and will be Bibi’s coalition partners. Still, there are about 500,000 votes from soldiers, prisoners and diplomats that are yet to be counted, but soldiers' votes traditionally skew right. Longtime leader and divisive figure Bibi Netanyahu appears to be on the cusp of victory.
Colombia-Venezuela lunch date
Colombia’s recently elected left-wing President Gustavo Petro traveled to Caracas on Tuesday for a lunch date with Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. Relations between Venezuela and Colombia fell apart in 2019 during mass protests against Maduro’s regime and clashes along their shared border. But since Petro took office in August, tensions have eased and the borders have reopened. The two leaders planned to discuss the further easing of tensions, joint approaches to protecting the Amazon, and the surprising idea of reintegrating Venezuela — which the UN recently accused of crimes against humanity — into regional human rights bodies. At the same time, Petro wants Venezuela to act as a guarantor for fresh peace talks with the holdout Colombian rebels of the ELN. The meeting between Washington’s closest South American ally, Colombia, and its biggest bete noire, Venezuela, comes as the US is exploring ways to ease oil sanctions on the Venezuelan petro-state in exchange for progress towards fair elections. See our recent interview with Petro here.A sticker and a banner of election campaign, depicting former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other politicians, are seen in Tel Aviv.
Israel’s fifth election in under four years: Will anything change?
We’ve seen this movie before: An ill-suited coalition government collapses, electioneering kicks off, and Israelis drag their feet to the polls.
On Tuesday, Israelis vote to elect a new government for the fifth time since April 2019. Former longtime Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu is looking to make a comeback nearly 18 months after he was relegated to opposition status. Accustomed to the trappings of PM life, Bibi has made no secret of the fact that he despises the indignity of playing second fiddle and desperately wants his old gig back.
As Israel votes yet again, what’s changed, what’s stayed the same, and what are the likely outcome(s) of round five?
First, how’d we get here? It was a very big deal in June 2021 when a “change government” was sworn in, ending Bibi’s 12-year reign. The man responsible for cobbling together the politically diverse coalition was Yair Lapid, a former journalist whose Yesh Atid Party (There is a Future) entered the political fray in 2013.
The bloc formed by Lapid, who is currently serving as caretaker PM, included a ragtag grouping of eight political parties (notably including an Arab Islamist party) that was united by nothing more than animus toward Bibi and ultimately collapsed this past summer.
What’s still the same? Bibi’s edge.
Facing criminal proceedings for alleged breach of trust and corruption, Bibi, who at 73 remains an indefatigable campaigner, has continued to agitate from the opposition rather than step aside and avoid dragging the country through an ugly political slugfest.
Despite his legal woes – or perhaps because of them – Bibi’s right-wing Likud Party remains Israel’s biggest. Again, Likud is slated to win the most of any party, with polls projecting it’ll reap around 30-31 out of 120 seats. Lapid is polling second with around 24-27 seats. This means Bibi will likely get the first shot at trying to convince other parties to join his coalition – a painstaking task in an environment where loyalty is a scarce commodity.
What’s changed? A united extreme right.
This time, Netanyahu successfully managed to broker the Religious Zionism alliance, which saw three far-right parties run on a single ticket so as not to split the right-wing vote. For Bibi, the bloc is a natural coalition partner that can help him get to 61 seats.
And that strategy has paid off, with Religious Zionism – an extremist bunch espousing anti-LGBTQ and anti-Arab views – expected to win around 14 seats, which would make it the third largest group in parliament. That’s no small feat considering that 40 political parties are vying for votes.
The success of this far-right grouping is in part due to the star power of a man you’ve likely never heard of: Itamar Ben-Gvir, 46, is an admirer of Meir Kahane, a radical anti-Arab ideologue who was banned from Israeli politics before being assassinated in 1990.
A religious Jew, Ben-Gvir has managed to attract secular voters with right-wing proclivities, as well as more moderate right-wing voters, by advocating a relaxation of military rules of engagement linked to the use of live fire and calling for immunity for frontline soldiers. In a country with mandatory conscription laws and a majority right-leaning electorate, this pro-military stance has proven fruitful for Ben-Gvir, who was notably banned from military service as a youth because of his extremist views.
The dissipating Israeli Arab vote. PM Lapid managed to form a diverse change government in June 2021 in large part because of the Arab Israeli vote, which brought the Islamist Ra’am Party into government for the first time.
But many Arab-Israeli voters remain frustrated by soaring crime and poverty rates in their hometowns – 70% of violent deaths in Israel this year have been in Arab communities – in addition to the ongoing occupation and broader stalemate of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Indeed, many feel that representation failed them and are vowing to sit this vote out.
What might another Bibi-led government look like? Netanyahu, backed by Religious Zionism, has vowed to limit the independence of the judiciary so that the High Court cannot overrule government decision-making (the court currently has the power to rule whether government law violates one of the state’s 13 constitutional laws). Ben-Gvir also says he wants to pass a law banning corruption probes of serving PMs, and that the law should be implemented retroactively, essentially letting Bibi off (though others say they wouldn’t support such a move).
Internationally, Bibi has sworn to rip up the newly signed maritime deal with Lebanon, though many have dismissed this as pre-election grandstanding. On Iran and Russia policy, meanwhile, there’s likely to be little daylight between Netanyahu and the current Lapid government.
The other plausible option is …. stalemate. If Netanyahu can’t secure a 61-seat majority, then Israel will hold a sixth election in the spring. Meanwhile, partisanship and ugly social cleavages will continue to deepen, and many social and economic problems will remain largely ignored.
Israeli PM Netanyahu Seeks Record 5th Term: World in 60 Seconds
Can Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu win a record fifth term?
It looks pretty likely especially because his opponent Gantz has done a pretty bad job over the last few weeks. Lots of internal flubs and mishandling and he's way ahead in the polls at this point. But if Netanyahu ends up getting indicted, if those indictments come down, decent chance he's going to have to resign in the near term.
Will the EU approve another Brexit delay?
Almost certainly they will. Question is how long that delay will be and how flexible that delay will be? Ultimately, they're pushing the Brits hard to pretend that they won't because they want a faster deal. But given that's not going to happen they ultimately don't want to see a crash out with no deal.
Is Iran's IRGC really a terrorist organization?
Well, I mean, sure in the sense that they fund and support terrorist organizations that attack civilians across the Middle East, and occasionally more broadly, but they're already deeply sanctioned by the United States which means that designating them terrorist organization doesn't have an awful lot of impact on the relations with the United States, or more broadly, the Iranians will complain they won't do anything.
And go deeper on topics like cybersecurity and artificial intelligence at Microsoft Today in Technology.