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Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly visits the International Training Center of the Ukrainian National Guard in the village of Stare in Kyiv Region, Ukraine, in January 2022.
Is Mélanie Joly the potential Trudeau successor to watch?
The return of Trump is set to upend US-Canada relations, throwing all kinds of policy futures into doubt, including trade – with Trump threatening a 25% across-the-board tariff – border security, defense spending, and even freshwater management.
Joly will be directly or indirectly a part of it all, largely because of her ministerial portfolio, but also because of her place on Trudeau’s Cabinet Committee on Canada-U.S. relations, which has a full plate. Joly will be busy working with US contacts at the state and federal levels, in the White House and on Capitol Hill, as part of a strategy Canada deployed with Trump during his first term – an approach that more or less worked.
Beyond the immediate challenge of managing that relationship is the prospect of a potential leadership run in which Joly could be up against other heavyweights, including former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, and Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc.
Trudeau says he will stay on to fight the next election, but he’s down roughly 20 points in the polls, with the federal campaign due to launch no later than next fall. If Trudeau loses that election, he’ll almost certainly resign as leader of the Liberal Party, which could mean Joly would queue up to take on a new challenge – becoming the first woman to lead the Liberals.Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs Melanie Joly speaks during a reception honouring the visit of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission Moussa Faki Mahamat in Gatineau, Quebec, Canada October 26, 2022.
Canadian foreign minister heads to China amid tough tariff talk
Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly made a surprise visit to Beijing on Thursday as Canada and the United States are both considering new barriers to trade with China.
Canada-China relations have gone from bad to terrible since 2018, when Canada held Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou for extradition to the United States and the Chinese government responded by detaining Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor. Wanzhou and the two Michaels were released in 2021, but a Canadian public inquiry into foreign interference continued to put a strain on relations. Then came the suspected Chinese spy balloon surveillance in US and Canadian airspace in 2023.
Still, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China was open to improving relations earlier this year.
But this week, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said she would be talking to Canadian business and labor groups about erecting new trade barriers with China. Washington sent a similar message as Joe Biden told allies on Wednesday that he is considering taking fresh action to block Chinese chip manufacturing. Meanwhile, in Milwaukee this week, Donald Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, said China is the “biggest threat” facing the United States.
The Chinese likely want to talk to Joly about avoiding new trade barriers with Canada, since China’s economy is struggling and any new limits on exports could further slow growth. Joly will no doubt listen politely, but Canada is unlikely to jeopardize its crucial trade relationship with the United States by making any side deals with Beijing.
MP Michael Chong speaks during a news conference to announce he is running for the leadership of the Conservative Party in Ottawa, Canada.
Canada and China’s choreographed tit for tat
Ottawa’s relationship with Beijing already resembled a broken vase, but on Tuesday, more pieces shattered when China expelled Canadian diplomat Jennifer Lynn Lalonde from Shanghai. The move came in response to Canada’s expulsion on Monday of Chinese diplomat Zhao Wei for his alleged role in threatening Conservative MP Michael Chong and his family.
The story of the threats to a sitting MP’s family was broken by The Globe and Mail, and it forced the Canadian government to come clean on what they knew and when, and how they were going to respond. Chong, a long-time critic of Beijing on issues like the Uyghurs and repression in places like Hong Kong, demanded that Ottawa immediately expel the Chinese diplomat.
But it took more than a week for the government to act. What took so long? Why did Canada’s Foreign Minister Melanie Joly absorb so much flak for not expelling Zhao immediately?
Turns out, this may have been a diplomatic fight that was as choreographed as a WWE wrestling match. The first clue came when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded to the criticism last week by noting that the decision was being taken “very, very carefully.” Translation: We’re going to backchannel with the Chinese to limit the damage.
“The time the Canadians took to make a decision and the speed of China’s response points to behind-the-scenes coordination,” says Eurasia Group Vice Chairman Gerald Butts, Trudeau’s former principal secretary. “It looks like both sides are taking a no-surprises approach for now.”
Public diplomatic fights with backroom deals to save face on both sides? This is likely how much of the West is dealing with the wolf-warrior diplomacy of China, with the US playing a strong role in all the interactions. After all, tensions between China and the US are also on the rise and could influence Canada’s diplomatic decisions.
“Canada doesn’t have a lot of options,” says Butts. “Geography still matters. The Canadians will ultimately side with the United States in a geopolitical conflict of this magnitude.”